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The Battle of Ontario!

View Poll Results: Better team over next 10 years - Ott vs Tor
Sens Fan Voting Ottawa 63 26.92%
Ottawa 128 54.70%
Leafs Fan Voting Toronto 24 10.26%
Leafs 19 8.12%
Voters: 234. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
10-11-2012, 11:20 AM
  #126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MoreGore View Post
100% correct. 10 years is far too long to project out. I therefore assumed 5-6 years was more appropriate.

The think about the Leafs is that they make very good trades. With the exception of the unnamed one they really have snookered a lot of other teams.

Garndiner, Lupul and Phaneuf are core type players and all were picked up for replacable pieces. If they could get the drafting/development thing figured out they would be way better.

---
I guess this tells me that their Pro scounting is their strength, while amateur scouting and player development are a bit behind.
Agree completely. Aside from the Kessel trade, the Burke regime has been spectacular (with pro scouting). And I dont care what anyone else says, the Kessel trade was awful. Many, many people thought the leafs would still be terrible when they traded away their 1st round picks, and they were. They would have an amazing core to build with if they had kept those picks and still made the other trades they did.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minister of Offence View Post
Lupul and Gardiner were golden pick ups, especially considering what went the other way. Grabbing Phaneuf and naming him captain is part of the problem, IMO.
I think it will be a lot like the Luongo situation where they will eventually realize their folly, and correct their mistake in the most graceful way possible.


Last edited by Samsquanch: 10-11-2012 at 11:29 AM.
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Old
10-11-2012, 11:22 AM
  #127
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Although the Sens will probably be better the next 10 years , have people put into the equation that the Leafs will probably be drafting quite high for a couple more years, thus getting maybe some top prospects out of it, thus in 7-8 years the Leafs will be better ?

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10-11-2012, 11:26 AM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Leafs at Knight View Post
Although the Sens will probably be better the next 10 years , have people put into the equation that the Leafs will probably be drafting quite high for a couple more years, thus getting maybe some top prospects out of it, thus in 7-8 years the Leafs will be better ?
This is the most plausible scenario where I see the Leafs ending up better.

The underpants gnome plan where they mysteriously acquire a #1C and #1G to beef up their roster, without giving up some huge pieces, just doesnt add up for me.


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Old
10-11-2012, 02:56 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Leafs at Knight View Post
Although the Sens will probably be better the next 10 years , have people put into the equation that the Leafs will probably be drafting quite high for a couple more years, thus getting maybe some top prospects out of it, thus in 7-8 years the Leafs will be better ?
****'s gonna get awkward real fast if Burke can't pull the team out of the lottery. Beyond that, I'm not worried we can keep up even we're drafting lower. I think there's a gem or two beyond the obvious in Ottawa's system...the regime in Toronto hasn't given me any reason to expect them to come up with enough. But that's just if you ask me what makes the most sense....often times the result makes no sense.

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10-11-2012, 03:28 PM
  #130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minister of Offence View Post
****'s gonna get awkward real fast if Burke can't pull the team out of the lottery. Beyond that, I'm not worried we can keep up even we're drafting lower. I think there's a gem or two beyond the obvious in Ottawa's system...the regime in Toronto hasn't given me any reason to expect them to come up with enough. But that's just if you ask me what makes the most sense....often times the result makes no sense.
You don't think Leaf fans have prospects they feel that way about?

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10-11-2012, 04:01 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by The Chiddler View Post
You don't think Leaf fans have prospects they feel that way about?
I'm sure they do, but who is it? And do any of them compare to the likes of these;

Mark Stone (6th round pick)

Since being drafted in 2010- 137GP 78G 151A 229PTS

7 goals /10 points in 6 games at the WJC


Jakob Silfverberg (2nd round pick)

2011-2012 Regular Season 49GP 24G 30A 54PTS

SEL Regular season MVP

2011-2012 Playoffs 16GP 13G 7A 20PTS

SEL PLayoff MVP


Robin Lehner (2nd round pick)

AHL playoff MVP at age 19, and has skyrocketed in value into one of the top 3 goalie prospects in the world.


If all we had were guys like Pageau, Petterson and Prince, then I would agree that there really wouldnt be any reason for us being so confident in having found late round gems. But we have those guys in addition to whats listed above, along with all our other first rounders who have not been listed. The future looks good, and those picks outside of the first round are the biggest reasons why.


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Old
10-11-2012, 04:35 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by The Chiddler View Post
You don't think Leaf fans have prospects they feel that way about?
Of course.

But they have less of the obvious.

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10-11-2012, 04:46 PM
  #133
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Yeah, the leafs are stuck with prospects who were picked higher, and have had success at higher levels.

much less obvious.

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10-11-2012, 04:51 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by Samsquanch View Post
I'm sure they do, but who is it? And do any of them compare to the likes of these;

Mark Stone (6th round pick)

Since being drafted in 2010- 137GP 78G 151A 229PTS

7 goals /10 points in 6 games at the WJC


Jakob Silfverberg (2nd round pick)

2011-2012 Regular Season 49GP 24G 30A 54PTS

SEL Regular season MVP

2011-2012 Playoffs 16GP 13G 7A 20PTS

SEL PLayoff MVP


Robin Lehner (2nd round pick)

AHL playoff MVP at age 19, and has skyrocketed in value into one of the top 3 goalie prospects in the world.


If all we had were guys like Pageau, Petterson and Prince, then I would agree that there really wouldnt be any reason for us being so confident in having found late round gems. But we have those guys in addition to whats listed above, along with all our other first rounders who have not been listed. The future looks good, and those picks outside of the first round are the biggest reasons why.
I like all 3 of those prospects, but with the exception of Lehner, they really haven't proven any more then some of the Leafs prospects.

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10-11-2012, 05:05 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by The Chiddler View Post
I like all 3 of those prospects, but with the exception of Lehner, they really haven't proven any more then some of the Leafs prospects.
I'm sure winning the SEL regular season MVP and playoff MVP must count for something, no?

And while he hasnt won any major awards or made the big league full time, stone has only gotten exponentially better since being drafted. Guys like kadri and colborne are certainly not busts, but they've caused a lot more concern than excitement since being drafted.

I bet if you listed your three best prospects outside of the first round (ie hidden gems) the lists would not be comparable in anyway.

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10-11-2012, 05:09 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
Yeah, the leafs are stuck with prospects who were picked higher, and have had success at higher levels.

much less obvious.
Like who?

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10-11-2012, 06:07 PM
  #137
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What's funny is that you will have the same people pointing to Zibanejad's less than stellar season in the SEL turning around and saying SEL means nothing in the case of Silfverberg's MVP and playoff MVP season.

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10-11-2012, 06:39 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by Samsquanch View Post
I'm sure winning the SEL regular season MVP and playoff MVP must count for something, no?

And while he hasnt won any major awards or made the big league full time, stone has only gotten exponentially better since being drafted. Guys like kadri and colborne are certainly not busts, but they've caused a lot more concern than excitement since being drafted.

I bet if you listed your three best prospects outside of the first round (ie hidden gems) the lists would not be comparable in anyway.
Kadri is a bad example, he dominated the OHL and has been great in the AHL, he just hasn't been able to crack the NHL yet. That's pretty much what I'm trying to say, a prospect can rip up one league, but then still not be able to adapt to the NHL game.

Matt Frattin dominated the NCAA and was a hobey baker finalist getting 60 points in 44 games, but it will still take time to see if his goal scoring can transition to the NHL level.

This is kind of pointless, but do you mean D men too? Because we have

Matt Finn 18 6'0(Round 2)
OHL stats: 128 GP 74 Points 0.58 PPG

Jesse Blacker 21 6'1 (Round 2)
OHL: 203 GP 112 Points 0.55

Forwards:
Greg Mckegg 20 6'0 (Round 3)
OHL stats since drafted: 131 GP 167 Points 1.27 PPG

Brad Ross 20 6'1 (Round 2)
WHL stats since drafted: 135 GP 151 Points 1.12 PPG

Josh Leivo 19 6'2 (Round 3)
OHL stats since drafted: 74 GP 82 Points 1.11 PPG

Jerry D'Amigo 21 5'11 (Round 6)
OHL regular season + Playoff stats: 28 GP 37 Points 1.32 PPG
AHL: 119 GP 56 Points 0.47 PPG

All of whom are younger then Silfv. They may not be as good prospects as Silfv or Stone and his 1.67 PPG but they are definitely legit prospects.

Petersson and Pageau are both 5'9, that has a big part to do with why they're considered long shots. Only 1 of the players I listed is shorter then 6 feet tall. I actually really like Shane Prince.

You definitely have the top 2, but we have a lot of good prospects below them and anything can happen. You're making it seem like a landslide in the sens favor.

I'm not forgetting Lehner, but he's obviously the best goalie prospect right now.

The best part about this is we'll actually get to see some of these guys playing some pro hockey soon

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10-11-2012, 06:44 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by Minister of Offence View Post
Like who?
any of the many guys they have that have taken their productive Euro, NCAA, or junior careers and actually become productive Pros in north maerica.

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10-11-2012, 06:50 PM
  #140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minister of Offence View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by zeke View Post
Yeah, the leafs are stuck with prospects who were picked higher, and have had success at higher levels.

much less obvious.
Like who?
These guys (2012 stats, sorted by PPG);

Pro Forwards:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPGGPTsPPG
Ott22Silfverberg09239SEL492430541.10
Tor22Kadri09107AHL481822400.83
Ott23DaCostaNA NA NA AHL461323360.78
Ott22Petersson084109AHL602321440.73
Ott22Hoffman095130AHL762128490.64
Tor22Colborne08116AHL651623390.60
Tor21Ashton09129AHL632117380.60
Tor21D'Amigo096158AHL761526410.54
Tor22Deschamps08235AHL711225370.52
Ott19Zibanejad1116SEL2658130.50


Amateur Forwards:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPGGPTsPPG
Ott20Stone106178WHL6641821231.86
Ott19S.Prince11261OHL574347901.58
Ott19Pageau11496QMJHL463233651.41
Ott19S.Noeson11121OHL633844821.30
Tor20Ross10243WHL684240821.21
Tor20McKegg10362OHL653144751.15
Tor19J.Leivo11386OHL663241731.11
Ott19M.Puempel11124OHL301716331.10
Tor20Carrick107182OHL683730670.99
Tor19T.Biggs11122CCHA3798170.46

Pro Defensemen:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPGGPTsPPG
Ott22Wiercioch08242AHL57416200.35
Ott23Borowiecki085139AHL73517220.30
Tor24Holzer064111AHL67119200.30
Tor21Blacker09258AHL58115160.28

Amateur Defensemen:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPGGPTsPPG
Tor18Reilly12105WHL18315181.00
Ott18Ceci120115OHL641743600.94
Tor18Finn12235OHL611038480.79
Tor19S.Percy11125OHL34520250.74

Pro Goalies:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPWAvgS%SO
Tor23 OwuyaS-NAAHL19111.940.9292
Ott21Lehner09246AHL40133.260.9072

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10-11-2012, 06:57 PM
  #141
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Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
These guys (2012 stats, sorted by PPG);
I guess stats from last year is all that matters right?

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10-11-2012, 07:55 PM
  #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
These guys (2012 stats, sorted by PPG);

Pro Forwards:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPGGPTsPPG
Ott22Silfverberg09239SEL492430541.10
Tor22Kadri09107AHL481822400.83
Ott23DaCostaNA NA NA AHL461323360.78
Ott22Petersson084109AHL602321440.73
Ott22Hoffman095130AHL762128490.64
Tor22Colborne08116AHL651623390.60
Tor21Ashton09129AHL632117380.60
Tor21D'Amigo096158AHL761526410.54
Tor22Deschamps08235AHL711225370.52
Ott19Zibanejad1116SEL2658130.50


Amateur Forwards:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPGGPTsPPG
Ott20Stone106178WHL6641821231.86
Ott19S.Prince11261OHL574347901.58
Ott19Pageau11496QMJHL463233651.41
Ott19S.Noeson11121OHL633844821.30
Tor20Ross10243WHL684240821.21
Tor20McKegg10362OHL653144751.15
Tor19J.Leivo11386OHL663241731.11
Ott19M.Puempel11124OHL301716331.10
Tor20Carrick107182OHL683730670.99
Tor19T.Biggs11122CCHA3798170.46

Pro Defensemen:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPGGPTsPPG
Ott22Wiercioch08242AHL57416200.35
Ott23Borowiecki085139AHL73517220.30
Tor24Holzer064111AHL67119200.30
Tor21Blacker09258AHL58115160.28

Amateur Defensemen:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPGGPTsPPG
Tor18Reilly12105WHL18315181.00
Ott18Ceci120115OHL641743600.94
Tor18Finn12235OHL611038480.79
Tor19S.Percy11125OHL34520250.74

Pro Goalies:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPWAvgS%SO
Tor23 OwuyaS-NAAHL19111.940.9292
Ott21Lehner09246AHL40133.260.9072
nice start to a comparison there, but not very complete. more than one year of data would be nice, and no reason to ignore the playoffs. Things like exact age, draft position, and size would be nice too......oh wait, I already gave all that and more earlier in the thread. not as pretty as your simpler charts, though.

and if you're going to put a guy like dacosta in the comparison, you'll probably want to put Frattin in there too.

but still a good start to the comp, showing Toronto's advantage on D, Ottawa's advantage at forward, and a surprise at G.


Last edited by zeke: 10-11-2012 at 08:05 PM.
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Old
10-11-2012, 08:11 PM
  #143
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any of the many guys they have that have taken their productive Euro, NCAA, or junior careers and actually become productive Pros in north maerica.
There is a reason that it's considered common knowledge that our system is in better shape than yours is right now. It's very rare I use that it's "common knowledge" in an argument, but you're a special case, zeke.

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10-11-2012, 08:11 PM
  #144
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heh. you used "common knowledge".

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10-11-2012, 10:34 PM
  #145
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Originally Posted by The Chiddler View Post
I guess stats from last year is all that matters right?
It's pretty important when you claim that your prospects are accomplishing more.

Quote:
Originally Posted by zeke View Post
nice start to a comparison there, but not very complete. more than one year of data would be nice, and no reason to ignore the playoffs. Things like exact age, draft position, and size would be nice too......oh wait, I already gave all that and more earlier in the thread. not as pretty as your simpler charts, though.
Simpler charts do a great job of conveying information to a greater audience; the mess that you posted conceals it.

Draft position and year were listed.
Age is precise enough.
Size is helpful, but weights can vary greatly over these crucial years. We'd have to hope that readers have a vague idea about the types of players these prospects are supposed to project into.

Teams play as little as a week in the playoffs against the same opponents. Your stats are heavily dependent on whether you face a strong defensive team, backstopped by Hasek or undisciplined, swiss cheese defense backstopped by an imploding MA Fleury. More games are nice, but the structure of the playoffs doesn't necessarily make them more accurate. It isn't worth the trouble of adding them in... unless the Marlies made the Finals for the first time and I use playoff stats for the first time ever to try and bump up their stats while ignoring Ottawa players who did well in the playoffs (like Silfverberg's missing playoff stats after posting an SEL goalscoring record with 13 goals).

Quote:
Originally Posted by zeke View Post
and if you're going to put a guy like dacosta in the comparison, you'll probably want to put Frattin in there too.
Da Costa is still eligible for the Calder, Frattin is not. Frattin's no longer a prospect.

Quote:
Originally Posted by zeke View Post
but still a good start to the comp, showing Toronto's advantage on D, Ottawa's advantage at forward, and a surprise at G.
Why is it surprising to you that a 23yo pro player from Sweden playing a handful of cherry picked games as a backup on a top AHL team could post a better SV% than a 21yo starter playing tougher games on a team that lost half it's roster to the NHL team in the offseason?

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10-12-2012, 12:02 PM
  #146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
These guys (2012 stats, sorted by PPG);

Pro Forwards:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPGGPTsPPG
Ott22Silfverberg09239SEL492430541.10
Tor22Kadri09107AHL481822400.83
Ott23DaCostaNA NA NA AHL461323360.78
Ott22Petersson084109AHL602321440.73
Ott22Hoffman095130AHL762128490.64
Tor22Colborne08116AHL651623390.60
Tor21Ashton09129AHL632117380.60
Tor21D'Amigo096158AHL761526410.54
Tor22Deschamps08235AHL711225370.52
Ott19Zibanejad1116SEL2658130.50


Amateur Forwards:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPGGPTsPPG
Ott20Stone106178WHL6641821231.86
Ott19S.Prince11261OHL574347901.58
Ott19Pageau11496QMJHL463233651.41
Ott19S.Noeson11121OHL633844821.30
Tor20Ross10243WHL684240821.21
Tor20McKegg10362OHL653144751.15
Tor19J.Leivo11386OHL663241731.11
Ott19M.Puempel11124OHL301716331.10
Tor20Carrick107182OHL683730670.99
Tor19T.Biggs11122CCHA3798170.46

Pro Defensemen:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPGGPTsPPG
Ott22Wiercioch08242AHL57416200.35
Ott23Borowiecki085139AHL73517220.30
Tor24Holzer064111AHL67119200.30
Tor21Blacker09258AHL58115160.28

Amateur Defensemen:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPGGPTsPPG
Tor18Reilly12105WHL18315181.00
Ott18Ceci120115OHL641743600.94
Tor18Finn12235OHL611038480.79
Tor19S.Percy11125OHL34520250.74

Pro Goalies:
TmAgePlayerDrRdOvLgGPWAvgS%SO
Tor23 OwuyaS-NAAHL19111.940.9292
Ott21Lehner09246AHL40133.260.9072
Very nice job. What I see here, clear as day, is that last year the same aged forwards of the Sens thoroughly outplayed the leafs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by zeke View Post
nice start to a comparison there, but not very complete. more than one year of data would be nice, and no reason to ignore the playoffs. Things like exact age, draft position, and size would be nice too......oh wait, I already gave all that and more earlier in the thread. not as pretty as your simpler charts, though.
Ummmmm the exact draft position is listed, along with age?

Zeke, why in gods name would we combine playoff and regular season stats to compare prospects??? When does that ever happen?? Aside from when a biased poster wants to level out the playing field for a sub par year from his prospects, I cant think of how that would ever be beneficial to anyone.

Some players dont get the benefit of playing on a stacked team going deep into the playoffs. All players do however get a set amount of games to prove themselves during the regular season, and this is the data you must go by. Make another chart if need be for the playoffs, but dont question the validity of this chart because it doesnt combine the stats of playoffs and regular season into one, like the jumbled mess you gave us earlier.

It's only one year of data, true, but in the world of prospects its "what have you done for me lately", and if you have a direct comparison available of player drafted in the same year/similar draft position, then this is the most accurate data you can go by to gauge where your prospect is at. At least in terms of forwards, this clearly highlights that the leafs are quite a bit behind. The Sens being deficient on D I can live with and accept the Leafs are clearly ahead. That blow is softened quite a bit by the fact that we have a 22 year old superstar, and a 21 year old mean giant already D in playing in the NHL.

You probably dont like this chart because it highlights what we've been saying this whole time, we've got the much better prospect pool. Anything else you throw in at this point is only to detract from the obvious statistical advantage the Sens prospects hold at this point. Not only that, but in general, the Sens prospects are held in a much higher regard by anyone who reports on this kind of thing.

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10-12-2012, 12:33 PM
  #147
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nice start to a comparison there, but not very complete. more than one year of data would be nice, and no reason to ignore the playoffs. Things like exact age, draft position, and size would be nice too......oh wait, I already gave all that and more earlier in the thread. not as pretty as your simpler charts, though.

so if by including multiply years into the stats showed Sens prospects pts/g regressing, wouldn't that imply that they have progressed in their play the way prospects are supposed to?

And if by include multiple seasons showed Leafs prospects stats increase, wouldn't that imply that they regresed?

compiling multiply seasons worth of data is great for establish players, but can hide trends when dealing with periods where dramatice developement can be expected. I'd much prefer to see a column for each of say the last 3 seasons pts/g over one # combining all 3. That way you can identify who is developing, stagnating and regressing.

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10-12-2012, 01:58 PM
  #148
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Originally Posted by Samsquanch View Post
Very nice job. What I see here, clear as day, is that last year the same aged forwards of the Sens thoroughly outplayed the leafs.
Lol you ask me to do something and then you ignore my post, coulda seen that coming.

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10-12-2012, 02:14 PM
  #149
zeke
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Fun comparison:

Age 22:

G M.Owuya: AHL - 19gms, 11-5-1, 1.94gaa, 2so, .929sv% - ECHL: 30gms, 18-8-3, 2.56gaa, 2so, .931sv%[/b]
W J.Silfverberg: AHL - ???

Age 21

G M.Owuya: SEL - 39gms, 2.08gaa, 4so, .928sv% - Leads SEL in save percentage
W J.Silfverberg: SEL - 66gms, 37gls, 74pts (82gms, 46gls, 92pts) - wins SEL MVP

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10-12-2012, 02:15 PM
  #150
zeke
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
so if by including multiply years into the stats showed Sens prospects pts/g regressing, wouldn't that imply that they have progressed in their play the way prospects are supposed to?

And if by include multiple seasons showed Leafs prospects stats increase, wouldn't that imply that they regresed?
It might, or it might indicate just that some had good years, some had bad years. Assuming a linear progression/regression now and going forward is probably wishful thinking, though.

But I'lk ask it again - do you believe Lehner is "regressing" because he had a poor year last year? or does "regression" just apply to leafs prospects who take a step back?


Last edited by zeke: 10-12-2012 at 02:21 PM.
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