So... he's anti-clutch? Seems relevant for a team hoping to play meaningful games next fall.
Now I know the idea of someone being a "clutch hitter" has long since been shown to be false: people just don't hit better in pressure situations. But I do think it's entirely possible for someone to hit *worse* in pressure situations. We saw last night (was it last night? the days are blurring together for me) that Swisher can be certainly blow a fielding play when it counts. He just doesn't seem to be a guy who rises to the occasion.
Small sample size, I know, and obviously he does bring something to the table, it just raised an interesting question about his makeup.
So... he's anti-clutch? Seems relevant for a team hoping to play meaningful games next fall.
Now I know the idea of someone being a "clutch hitter" has long since been shown to be false: people just don't hit better in pressure situations. But I do think it's entirely possible for someone to hit *worse* in pressure situations. We saw last night (was it last night? the days are blurring together for me) that Swisher can be certainly blow a fielding play when it counts. He just doesn't seem to be a guy who rises to the occasion.
Small sample size, I know, and obviously he does bring something to the table, it just raised an interesting question about his makeup.
1) There is no such thing as clutch hitting.
2) Why would you place more value on Swisher's batting in a small sample size of games, over his career sample size which is well above average?
2) Why would you place more value on Swisher's batting in a small sample size of games, over his career sample size which is well above average?
If you actually read my post, you'll see that I acknowledge there's no such thing as clutch hitting. What I'm suggesting is that even though players don't hit better under pressure, it's entirely possible that a guy might hit worse under pressure if he doesn't have the makeup to handle the pressure.
And I'm not saying that's the case with Swisher, I'm saying it's an interesting observation for Perkins (or was it Griffin?) to have made. Doubtless Swisher's career average with RISP is going to be better than his 1-for-36 in postseason opportunities. But it begs the question: why does he always seem to crap the bed in the playoffs?
wow. I didn't realize he was that brutal over his career in the post season. That alone makes me hope we stay far away from him.
It's really not the type of guy I'd want to blow a large chunk of cash on. He is not a difference maker. He is more of a support player. I don't want to overpay for a support player who thinks he is some kind of star.
Going back to the 2B discussion, Marco Scutaro would be a decent addition on a short-term deal, but it's important to rember that his best season was 2009, his second Jays season (WAR of 4.5), his next best was 2008 (also with the Jays, WAR of 2.9), and that the last three years have been 2.4 to 2.8. So not a useless player at all, but not as good a player as we might remember.
The other thought is I was reading an article from when Kinsler signed his extension with Texas, and it pointed out how dramatic a drop-off there has been historically in performance from 2B when they hit their 30s - disproportionately so, which may be coincidence, but may also be a function of the wear and tear from turning double plays. Interesting either way.
Going back to the 2B discussion, Marco Scutaro would be a decent addition on a short-term deal, but it's important to rember that his best season was 2009, his second Jays season (WAR of 4.5), his next best was 2008 (also with the Jays, WAR of 2.9), and that the last three years have been 2.4 to 2.8. So not a useless player at all, but not as good a player as we might remember.
The other thought is I was reading an article from when Kinsler signed his extension with Texas, and it pointed out how dramatic a drop-off there has been historically in performance from 2B when they hit their 30s - disproportionately so, which may be coincidence, but may also be a function of the wear and tear from turning double plays. Interesting either way.
Scutaro has been more of a full time 2B this season. Last year, he played SS full time, and in 2010 and in 2009. In 2008 with the Jays, he played at SS/2B/3B and spent a good chunk of time in all those positions. So I'm not sure if that holds true to him.
His 2008 WAR is kinda inflated because his defense is rated super highly. He played a good chunk at SS/2B/3B and that number likely would have came down if he stuck at one position. Offensively, he's been solid every year. Of course his 2009 season was the best of his career so offensively he hasn't repeated that but he's been good.
So if we accept Scutaro as a worthwhile improvement on Johnson, the Jays could theoretically address all of their position player needs through free agency:
Doubt that's how it goes down, either indollars or number of key FAs signed - but I like that lineup a lot.
I worry though that without a switch to grass, they'll be unable to attract any of the quality outfielders on the market this winter, in which case you're trading for OF help as well. Arizona seriously needs a shortstop - would Escobar + Gose (who I don't want to move) + a second-tier prospect get an Upton deal done?
If you actually read my post, you'll see that I acknowledge there's no such thing as clutch hitting. What I'm suggesting is that even though players don't hit better under pressure, it's entirely possible that a guy might hit worse under pressure if he doesn't have the makeup to handle the pressure.
Except that your wrong... There is no correlation between RISP from year to year, positive or negative. That means that the ability to be "clutch" or "unclutch" is a non-repeatable act, it's random. A players batting statistics over his career is far more representative of the type of hitter he is.
Robinson Cano is 0 for his last 26 at bats, do you not want him on your team? I sure would...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohio Jones
And I'm not saying that's the case with Swisher, I'm saying it's an interesting observation for Perkins (or was it Griffin?) to have made. Doubtless Swisher's career average with RISP is going to be better than his 1-for-36 in postseason opportunities.
There is nothing interesting about it, it's a meaningless observation made by someone who believes in clutch hitting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohio Jones
But it begs the question: why does he always seem to crap the bed in the playoffs?
Who knows? Swisher only has 44 career playoff games, there are any number of explanations for it. I'd rather invest money on a player who can help get you to the playoffs, than a player with great numbers in small sample sizes, and below average to average statistics in the regular season.
Furthermore, it's not like Swisher has never had a good play-off series, he was good in 2008 and 2010.
And a team can't win if their hitters are playing ******?
You decrease the odds of a team playing bad by acquiring hitters with a significant track-record of strong performances, and Nick Swisher is undeniably one of those guys. Don't be fooled into thinking otherwise because of a small sample size of data, 44 games to be exact.
It's really not the type of guy I'd want to blow a large chunk of cash on. He is not a difference maker. He is more of a support player. I don't want to overpay for a support player who thinks he is some kind of star.
Now we are making assumptions about Nick Swisher's personality? Some of you need to seriously re-evaluate your arguments.
Going back to the 2B discussion, Marco Scutaro would be a decent addition on a short-term deal, but it's important to rember that his best season was 2009, his second Jays season (WAR of 4.5), his next best was 2008 (also with the Jays, WAR of 2.9), and that the last three years have been 2.4 to 2.8. So not a useless player at all, but not as good a player as we might remember.
The other thought is I was reading an article from when Kinsler signed his extension with Texas, and it pointed out how dramatic a drop-off there has been historically in performance from 2B when they hit their 30s - disproportionately so, which may be coincidence, but may also be a function of the wear and tear from turning double plays. Interesting either way.
That is primarily because of his declining defence, offensively he has been just as good with the Giants this year as he was with the Jays, albeit with less strike-outs and more walks.
Except that your wrong... There is no correlation between RISP from year to year, positive or negative. That means that the ability to be "clutch" or "unclutch" is a non-repeatable act, it's random. A players batting statistics over his career is far more representative of the type of hitter he is.
Fair enough - I hadn't studied the numbers, just raised the question. Thanks for addressing it. Just found that particular set of random numbers a bit alarming.
I still think there are more cost effective options for the Jays at LF this winter, but as I mentioned above, it may be moot if the turf situation isn't addressed.
Funny how some people on here are worried about bringing in guys with bad postseason numbers. Look at the regular season stats for these players don't worry about the postseason.
The Jays have not been to the playoffs in 20 years so who cares about postseason stats these guys perform during the regular season and that is what gets you to the goal of the postseason.
The more I look into it, the more I lean toward not adding a LF this off-season, and instead rolling with Anthony Gose in either CF or LF. I had a little fun this morning comparing him to some of the young elite CF in the majors.
Looks like Anthony is on a very good development path, even showing better iso numbers than Jackson and McCutchen at the same ages. What's important to note is that each of Jackson (4.0 WAR), Jones (1.8 WAR) and McCutchen (3.0 WAR) made the jump to the majors in a full time role at 23, and were productive.
Funny how some people on here are worried about bringing in guys with bad postseason numbers. Look at the regular season stats for these players don't worry about the postseason.
The Jays have not been to the playoffs in 20 years so who cares about postseason stats these guys perform during the regular season and that is what gets you to the goal of the postseason.
I couldn't agree with you more. Look at what we did with Molitor or Winfield. What exactly did these 2 do prior to coming to the Jays when they did what they did for us?
In the end we need to get to the post season first. These additions will allow us to, that should be the bottom line. Worrying about how they have faired in the post season should be the least of anyone's worries if you are a Jays fan.
The more I look into it, the more I lean toward not adding a LF this off-season, and instead rolling with Anthony Gose in either CF or LF. I had a little fun this morning comparing him to some of the young elite CF in the majors.
Looks like Anthony is on a very good development path, even showing better iso numbers than Jackson and McCutchen at the same ages. What's important to note is that each of Jackson (4.0 WAR), Jones (1.8 WAR) and McCutchen (3.0 WAR) made the jump to the majors in a full time role at 23, and were productive.
Great post and Gose is still extremely raw with the bat. The great parts seems to be that hes a sponge and really wants to learn. They only way I would be dealing a talent like his is in a package for a REALLY good pitcher. I'm actually cool with them dealing Rasmus somewhere this offseason, playing Gose in CF and bringing in a quality LF'er.
Anyways on topic Baseball America just posted its top PCL prospects
Funny how some people on here are worried about bringing in guys with bad postseason numbers. Look at the regular season stats for these players don't worry about the postseason.
The Jays have not been to the playoffs in 20 years so who cares about postseason stats these guys perform during the regular season and that is what gets you to the goal of the postseason.
Agree with this.. Whose to say how players like Bautista or Encarnacion would perform in the playoffs? They've never been there... adding guys with at least some experience would help either way. Obviously grabbing someone like Ortiz if he becomes available is a priority, but Swisher (or another FA) is still better than any other option that is currently in the organization.
Great post and Gose is still extremely raw with the bat. The great parts seems to be that hes a sponge and really wants to learn. They only way I would be dealing a talent like his is in a package for a REALLY good pitcher. I'm actually cool with them dealing Rasmus somewhere this offseason, playing Gose in CF and bringing in a quality LF'er.
Anyways on topic Baseball America just posted its top PCL prospects
