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Gilmour or Francis?

View Poll Results: Overall who was better
Dougy 48 54.55%
Ronny franchise 40 45.45%
Voters: 88. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
10-20-2012, 02:57 AM
  #101
Darth Yoda
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I have no idea what i have to do to be able to vote in polls on this board, but as a Penguin fan i can happily say that Gilmour was better. I'm willing to bet that a switch of these two guys would have gotten us a third straight cup in 1992-93, and possibly even a fourth the year after. No way the Islanders would have taken us to seven games and no way that Montreal team would have shut us out enough. I dont think LA would have won a cup in this scenario either considering Gilmours play against Gretzky that year, when we had Mario as well. Cant beat a good dynasty really.

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Old
10-20-2012, 03:40 AM
  #102
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Again I don't see Francis's years with Jagr as much of an aberration. Sure he scored a bit more but he basically had a 90 point pace for his career since he was a rookie. He has no where near a Bernie Nicholls type of season, or the one Lafontaine had in 1993. To me he got 10-15 extra points a year with Jagr. He neither was better or less then he was before. Now the 200 or so games Gilmour played for the Leafs playoff and regular season was an abberation. He played up to the calibre of a peak Trottier or Bobby Clarke or Messier. But he only did it only for two years. But what a 2 years it was.

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Old
10-20-2012, 09:06 AM
  #103
Dennis Bonvie
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Originally Posted by Puckgenius View Post
Who was better in their prime?
Who had the better career?
Who was better offensively?
Who as better defensively?

both PPG 2 way centres who were known as great leaders.
Kudos for this thread.

One of the most interesting "who's better" polls we've had. Seems difficult to determine a clear cut winner.

Though I voted for Francis, I can easily see the case for Gilmour leading the poll and being considered "better".

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Old
10-20-2012, 09:45 AM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
When a wing consistently outscores his center by 15-20+%, it should be apparent who is more responsible for driving the point production.
Honestly, when talking about short periods of time, I don't see the use in using percentage points. In the case of Gilmour and Andreychuk, their average per season point difference (considering regular season and playoffs separately) over those two seasons were 18 points, and most of that is from Gilmour's 28 point difference in the 92-93 regular season, a season that Andreychuk didn't play with Gilmour for the majority of.

That said, as I've noted, Gilmour probably was more responsible for driving the point production. I just reject the notion that he was singularly the reason for it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Yes, obviously. Especially when you consider:

- what happened to their scoring in the playoffs
I will concede Andreychuk's lesser playoff production, but I don't think that means he wasn't somewhat responsible for his own production. He was on average a 0.8 PPG player in the playoffs during him prime in Buffalo, and that's pretty much what he averaged over those two seasons (0.75 PPG). That said, Andreychuk didn't play as much with Gilmour in the 93-94 playoffs (mostly PP time), and there is an obvious drop in production. That could be explained by less ice time as much as by the players he was playing with.

Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
- how Andreychuk was producing both before and after being trade to Toronto
I'm confused with this. Prior to being traded to Toronto in 92-93, Andreychuk was coming off a 41 goal, 91 point season, had managed 40+ goals two seasons before while missing 7 games, and had picked up 29 goals and 61 points in 52 games with Buffalo prior to the trade, totals that would project to about 46 goals and 51 assists for 97 points over the 83-games he played that season. His goal production went up and assist production went down, but to say that he was producing significantly better after being traded to Toronto just doesn't hold water.

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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
If a PPG average 37% higher isn't enough for you to admit one linemate is driving the bus, then nothing will.
Once again, I'm more interested in the actual numbers than the percentage points, which can make a slightly different point totals look much worse (after all, 3 is 33% more than 2). Gilmour had a 37% higher scoring rate than Andreychuk over those seasons, but those actual per-season numbers were 28 (92-93 RS) (15 point difference in the 31 games they played together), 13 (93 playoffs), 12 (93-94 regular season) and 18 (94 playoffs). The percentage points are largely skewed by the 28 point difference in 92-93, a season that they didn't even play together for the majority of, and a season that, as I showed above, Andreychuk didn't significantly increase his production in after being placed on a line with Gilmour.

All this said, was Gilmour able to produce points on his own? Absolutely. Once again, his point totals in 86-87 were with no reliable support around him, and as noted, he got most of his career high 127 points without Andreychuk in 92-93, where he got 74 points playing with Nik Borschevsky, a 23-goal Glenn Anderson and an injured and unproductive Wendel Clark. Still, I reject the notion that he produced on his own when he had Andreychuk potting 53 goals in 93-94 and 25 goals in 31 games on his wing, numbers that weren't that far off his career totals prior to being put with Gilmour.

Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
In 1998 Jagr was scoring 23% more points per game. Yes, he was driving the bus. No, nobody would ever claim with a straight face that maybe Francis was responsible for Jagr's totals.
Again with the percentage points.

Jagr had 15 more points than Francis in the only season they played together without Mario. Was it notable, given the scoring period in question? Probably. Was Francis responsible for Jagr's totals? Not fully.

In the end, my whole argument would be that, while Jagr and Francis would both remain with about the same relative point numbers as each other in any case, I would bet that both would lose points if they were playing with different players. Put Jagr with Straka and Francis with Barnes and Rob Brown in 97-98, I bet both lose at least 10% of their points. In other words, while one player might be better than the other, when their numbers are at the level that Jagr, Francis, Gilmour and Andreychuk's are, their totals are a sum between linemates, not based on one's ability to incease the other's production.

However, when you're talking about players like Gilmour was playing with in 86-87, or when you look at totals for those Mats Sundin played with in the early Pat Quinn era, you can easily claim that they were practically solely responsible for the point totals seen for all involved.


Last edited by Leafsdude7: 10-20-2012 at 09:55 AM.
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Old
10-20-2012, 11:32 AM
  #105
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Here is every goal that Gilmour and Andreychuk were involved in, in the 1993 season after the Leafs aquired Andreychuk. Every goal Andreychuk scored that wasn't assisted by Gilmour is in bold. Clearly Andreychuk, (and the rest of the leafs for that matter) were riding Gilmour's coattails.

Feb 3 vs NYI Andreychuk 30 (Gilmour, Ellett)
Feb 9 vs TBL Gilmour 20 (Ellett, Cullen)
Feb 11 vs VAN Andreychuk 31 (Gilmour), Gilmour 21 (Anderson)
Feb 13 vs MIN Cullen 15 (Gilmour, Andreychuk), Andreychuk 32 (Gilmour), Anderson 16 (Gilmour), Andreychuk 33 (Anderson, Gilmour), Ellett 5 (Gilmour)
Feb 14 vs MIN Berg 12 (Gilmour), Gill 8 (Ellett, Gilmour), Gilmour 22 (Gill, Ellett)
Feb 17 vs CAL Borschevsky 23 (Andreychuk, Gilmour), Andreychuk 34 (Gilmour, Borschevsky), Andreychuk 35 (Anderson, Gilmour)
Feb 19 vs TBL Andreychuk 36 (Gill, Gilmour), Borschevsky 24 (Andreychuk), Gilmour 23 (Osborne), Gilmour 24 (Andreychuk, Borschevsky)
Feb 20 vs BOS Osborne 11 (Gilmour), Andreychuk 37 (Gilmour, Macoun)
Feb 22 vs VAN Andreychuk 38 (Gill, Gilmour), Clark 11 (Gilmour), Borschevsky 25 (Gilmour, Anderson)
Feb 25 vs SJS Andreychuk 39 (Borschevsky, Mironov)
Feb 27 vs LAK Andreychuk 40 (Clark, Gilmour)
Mar 3 vs MIN Andreychuk 41 (Gilmour, Borschevsky)
Mar 5 vs DET Gilmour 25 (Ellett, Gill)
Mar 6 vs WPG Foligno 11 (Gilmour, Krushelnyski), Andreychuk 42 (Mironov, Potvin)
Mar 9 vs WSH Andreychuk 43 (Anderson, Gilmour)
Mar 10 vs HAR Andreychuk 44 (Gill, Anderson)[/B], Andreychuk 45 (Berehowsky, Gilmour), Gilmour 26 (Berehowsky, Gill)
Mar 12 vs TBL Anderson 18 (Gilmour, Macoun), Andreychuk 46 (Anderson), Anderson 19 (Gill, Gilmour), Gilmour 27 (Andreychuk, Rouse)
Mar 15 vs QUE Andreychuk 47 (Gill, Borschevsky), Andreychuk 48 (Gill, Borschevsky)
Mar 18 vs TBL Pearson 18 (Gilmour, Gill)
Mar 20 vs EDM Andreychuk 49 (Gilmour, Borschevsky), Gilmour 28 (Andreychuk, Berehowsky), Borschevsky 28 (Gilmour, Andreychuk)
Mar 23 vs WPG Borschevsky 29 (Andreychuk), Gilmour 29 (Andreychuk, Borschevsky), Andreychuk 50 (Gilmour, Berehowsky)
Mar 25 vs MIN Borschevsky 30 (Gilmour, Gill), Gill 11 (Gilmour, Borschevsky), Gilmour 30 (Gill)
Mar 27 vs EDM Andreychuk 51 (Gilmour, Borschevsky), Berehowsky 2 (Gilmour), Andreychuk 52 (Gill, Berehowsky)
Mar 28 vs CAL Gilmour 31 (Anderson, Lefebvre), Borschevsky 33 (Gilmour, Gill)
Mar 31 vs LAK Macoun 4 (Gilmour), Berehowsky 3 (Macoun, Gilmour), Borschevsky 34 (Gilmour, Andreychuk)
Apr 3 vs NJD Gilmour 32 (Andreychuk, Anderson)
Apr 4 vs PHI shutout
Apr 8 vs WPG Anderson 21 (Cullen, Gilmour), Berehowsky 4 (Borschevsky, Gilmour)
Apr 10 vs PHI shutout again
Apr 11 vs HAR Andreychuk 53 (Clark, Berehowsky), Mcllwain 14 (Ellett, Andreychuk) *Gilmour did not play
Apr 13 vs STL Andreychuk 54 (Anderson, Rouse)
Apr 15 vs CHI neither score

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Old
10-20-2012, 11:38 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Sounds like a bunch of Homer nonsense. Henrik Sedin won a Hart (despite the fact that Crosby only had a couple of fewer points, many more goals, and had much greater defensive assignments) and it's East Coast bias that he didn't win a second one?

Edit: oops, you were talking about a push before he won his Hart. Still though, the fact that he actually won it helps make the East coast bias thing seem silly IMO
It's hard to say how big the bias is or if it's only a perception as we have little information on which player voters voted for and why.

The perception was quite strong among fans, media and others for a long time, although it seems to be less so recently.

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Old
10-20-2012, 11:48 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Leafsdude7 View Post


In the end, my whole argument would be that, while Jagr and Francis would both remain with about the same relative point numbers as each other in any case, I would bet that both would lose points if they were playing with different players. Put Jagr with Straka and Francis with Barnes and Rob Brown in 97-98, I bet both lose at least 10% of their points. In other words, while one player might be better than the other, when their numbers are at the level that Jagr, Francis, Gilmour and Andreychuk's are, their totals are a sum between linemates, not based on one's ability to incease the other's production.

However, when you're talking about players like Gilmour was playing with in 86-87, or when you look at totals for those Mats Sundin played with in the early Pat Quinn era, you can easily claim that they were practically solely responsible for the point totals seen for all involved.
The empirical evidence doesn't show this. In 1997-98, Jagr scored 102 points to Francis' 87. Francis left Pittsburgh before 1998-99. That year, Jagr scored 127 points (playing with some combination of Kip Miller, Martin Straka, and Jan Hrdina) and Francis scored 52 points. Francis would rebound to 73 points the following year, but never hit the heights he did with Jagr on his line. Jagr won the Art Ross yet again the following year, while missing almost 20 games.

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Old
10-20-2012, 01:26 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
I was responding to a specific assertion that it was basically impossible to tell who was driving the Francis-Jagr line to such high levels of production.

It's not simply that they had a big year together. It was four consecutive seasons, while Francis was in his 30s, which were basically the four best seasons of his career (in terms of adjusted points, points finishes, plus-minus, etc.) and which were heights he didn't reach before or after. It's similar to (a poor man's version of) Espo peaking at a late age with Orr and the Bruins, while never coming close to those heights with Chicago or the Rangers before and after his time in Boston. Also, Francis was not the only player to hit career high levels with Jagr. Players like Nedved, Straka, Barnes, Hrdina, Miller, Nylander, Giroux, Hartnell, etc. all had career high years or very near to career highs while playing on Jagr's line. Some of those may be coincidental, at least to some degree, but surely not most or all of them IMO.

Francis was obviously much more than decent, even as an offensive player, let alone as a two-way center. I have much respect for him as a player and person, and did not mean to insult him or his legacy. However, humble as he was/is, he would probably admit himself that he would not have achieved those high point totals/finishes without being on Jagr's line (including both his and Lemieux's in '97). Francis was a class act, had a great all-around game, and came through when it mattered most. I was only trying to be realistic about his peak statistical accomplishments, not downplay his long and excellent career.
Obviously Jagr was the more offensively gifted player, and a better player overall, but the idea that he was driving the bus in his 3rd and 4th season in the NHL doesn't hold weight imo. Jagr was a star in the making, but not there yet, to try and discredit an established vet like Francis who already had a 100 point season with the whalers is a bit harsh. Francis was basically a 80 point player or better for nearly a decade, with a couple 90 point seasons and a 100 point season mixed in.

I don't see Jagr artificially bumping his numbers all that much, aside from 95-96. The numbers produced by Francis were basically his numbers throughout the early part of his career, give or take few points from season to season most likely a result of random chance, obviously playing with Jagr doesn't hurt, but being the 3rd, 4th, 5th best option, opposed to being the go guy with the whalers may have negatively impacted his numbers enough to close the gap a bit of being JJ's linemate.

Dougie had a higher 2,3 year peak, but not substantially at all. His 92-94 dominance looks like as much of anomaly as Francis' years with the Penguins.

Francis was consistently good for a much longer time and this more than makes up for Dougie's couple seasons of higher peak. I'd pick Francis comfortably based on the separation in peak is vastly overstated and the consistency and longevity edge goes to Francis rather easily.

I don't think the gap in their best years makes up the difference of Ronnie's superior play for a longer time.

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Old
10-20-2012, 01:51 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
Obviously Jagr was the more offensively gifted player, and a better player overall, but the idea that he was driving the bus in his 3rd and 4th season in the NHL doesn't hold weight imo. Jagr was a star in the making, but not there yet, to try and discredit an established vet like Francis who already had a 100 point season with the whalers is a bit harsh. Francis was basically a 80 point player or better for nearly a decade, with a couple 90 point seasons and a 100 point season mixed in.

I don't see Jagr artificially bumping his numbers all that much, aside from 95-96. The numbers produced by Francis were basically his numbers throughout the early part of his career, give or take few points from season to season most likely a result of random chance, obviously playing with Jagr doesn't hurt, but being the 3rd, 4th, 5th best option, opposed to being the go guy with the whalers may have negatively impacted his numbers enough to close the gap a bit of being JJ's linemate.

Dougie had a higher 2,3 year peak, but not substantially at all. His 92-94 dominance looks like as much of anomaly as Francis' years with the Penguins.

Francis was consistently good for a much longer time and this more than makes up for Dougie's couple seasons of higher peak. I'd pick Francis comfortably based on the separation in peak is vastly overstated and the consistency and longevity edge goes to Francis rather easily.

I don't think the gap in their best years makes up the difference of Ronnie's superior play for a longer time.
And that bump had more to do with Mario playing on the left-wing for Francis and Jagr for most of that season.

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Old
10-20-2012, 05:28 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Dennis Bonvie View Post
And that bump had more to do with Mario playing on the left-wing for Francis and Jagr for most of that season.
They played with Nedved in 95-96, Mario played mostly with Sandstrom and Smolinski. I think they all played together next year though.

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10-20-2012, 05:46 PM
  #111
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I voted Francis. It is close and to be honest Gilmour at his best did more than Francis at his best but the issue is Dougie never had a great season - or one that stood out - after 1994 when he was 31. Francis thrived in his 30s and was consistently a high point producer even in his 20s peaking at 101. Even as late as 2002 when Francis was 39 he took a team to the final and was a top 10 scorer in the NHL. Gilmour was more or less an afterthought by 2002 and had been on quite the decline by then even though he did fine in the 2002 playoffs.

The thing with Francis is that it is tough to gauge his prime. Dougie's is 1993 and 1994 no doubt. Francis had 90 point seasons in the 1980s and 101 in 1990. Then two years as a Cup champion in which he was a classic second banana (nothing wrong with that) and high point totals on his team and throughout the NHL up until 1998. Really he didn't have much of a lull in his career while Gilmour had gaps which hurts him.

Francis and Gilmour were relatively even defensively. Same with offensively if not an edge to Francis. Both were good leaders but Gilmour illustrated the ability to carry a team on his shoulders while Francis had Mario in Pittsburgh and a less memorable run in 2002. Give the edge to Gilmour in the postseason but longevity and consistency to Francis.

Lastly, even if you hate hearing this, Gilmour left two franchises in shambles when he left and despite being adored by Leaf fans to this day he only lasted 5 years there. It was hard to identify a franchise with him.
I agree with all of this here.
Plus there are a couple of seasons where people just naturally seem to give all credit to Jagr, but I have a hard time telling when exactly the balance shifted, I would say there is merit to saying Jagr had some 'Francis driven' seasons as well. (not saying jagr was gravy training, by any means, he's an unreal talent, but would he have hit those same heights in those years with a lesser than Francis talent linemate, probably not quite.)

for me it's pretty close but Francis played at such a high level for so very long, I give him the nod.

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10-20-2012, 07:01 PM
  #112
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Great poll, very hard to decide. It would be also very interesting to add Fedorov in this poll. Arguably the highest peak but is he really much different from Killer?


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10-20-2012, 09:00 PM
  #113
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I agree with all of this here.
Plus there are a couple of seasons where people just naturally seem to give all credit to Jagr, but I have a hard time telling when exactly the balance shifted, I would say there is merit to saying Jagr had some 'Francis driven' seasons as well. (not saying jagr was gravy training, by any means, he's an unreal talent, but would he have hit those same heights in those years with a lesser than Francis talent linemate, probably not quite.)

for me it's pretty close but Francis played at such a high level for so very long, I give him the nod.
I think it's easy - 1994-95: Jagr's first Art Ross and the first time Francis finished Top 10 in points.

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10-21-2012, 01:58 AM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Leafsdude7 View Post
Honestly, when talking about short periods of time, I don't see the use in using percentage points. In the case of Gilmour and Andreychuk, their average per season point difference (considering regular season and playoffs separately) over those two seasons were 18 points, and most of that is from Gilmour's 28 point difference in the 92-93 regular season, a season that Andreychuk didn't play with Gilmour for the majority of.

That said, as I've noted, Gilmour probably was more responsible for driving the point production. I just reject the notion that he was singularly the reason for it.
I don't care if you don't see the use in percentage points. I also gave you the raw totals - 227 to 166.

Quote:
I will concede Andreychuk's lesser playoff production, but I don't think that means he wasn't somewhat responsible for his own production. He was on average a 0.8 PPG player in the playoffs during him prime in Buffalo, and that's pretty much what he averaged over those two seasons (0.75 PPG). That said, Andreychuk didn't play as much with Gilmour in the 93-94 playoffs (mostly PP time), and there is an obvious drop in production. That could be explained by less ice time as much as by the players he was playing with.
That's no excuse for 1993, when he did play with Gilmour and played a part in just half as many goals.

Quote:
I'm confused with this. Prior to being traded to Toronto in 92-93, Andreychuk was coming off a 41 goal, 91 point season, had managed 40+ goals two seasons before while missing 7 games, and had picked up 29 goals and 61 points in 52 games with Buffalo prior to the trade, totals that would project to about 46 goals and 51 assists for 97 points over the 83-games he played that season. His goal production went up and assist production went down, but to say that he was producing significantly better after being traded to Toronto just doesn't hold water.
not just in Toronto - in 1993 and 1994 in particular.

Quote:
Once again, I'm more interested in the actual numbers than the percentage points, which can make a slightly different point totals look much worse (after all, 3 is 33% more than 2).
Yes, I agree it would be incredibly disingenuous of me to say "Gilmour scored 3 points to Andreychuk's 2, haha, that's 33% more".

But we are talking about a massive sample size of nearly 400 combined points between the two of them.

Quote:
Gilmour had a 37% higher scoring rate than Andreychuk over those seasons, but those actual per-season numbers were 28 (92-93 RS) (15 point difference in the 31 games they played together), 13 (93 playoffs), 12 (93-94 regular season) and 18 (94 playoffs).
Why should I care more about this?

It's really quite ridiculous when you think about it. You're acting like the raw gap is the most important thing here, like being beaten 23-10 is the same as being beaten 113-100 because both are 13 point differences. I honestly don't even know what to say to that!

Quote:
The percentage points are largely skewed by the 28 point difference in 92-93, a season that they didn't even play together for the majority of,
Wrong, I specifically said those numbers were only from the time of Andreychuk's trade. Not the entire 1992-93 season.

Quote:
All this said, was Gilmour able to produce points on his own? Absolutely. Once again, his point totals in 86-87 were with no reliable support around him, and as noted, he got most of his career high 127 points without Andreychuk in 92-93, where he got 74 points playing with Nik Borschevsky, a 23-goal Glenn Anderson and an injured and unproductive Wendel Clark. Still, I reject the notion that he produced on his own when he had Andreychuk potting 53 goals in 93-94 and 25 goals in 31 games on his wing, numbers that weren't that far off his career totals prior to being put with Gilmour.
very funny. see the next post after yours.

Quote:
Again with the percentage points.
To be quite honest, the fact that you find that funny doesn't look very good for you.

Quote:
Jagr had 15 more points than Francis in the only season they played together without Mario. Was it notable, given the scoring period in question? Probably. Was Francis responsible for Jagr's totals? Not fully.
It was a 22% per game difference, and besides, we don't have to just look at the one season without Mario. They were on the same line for 95, 96, 97, and 98, were they not? Most of the mario advantage was from the PP and by having easier ES matchups, but they shared that advantage equally. So we actually have a nice large 4-season sample size to go by and as anyone can plainly see, Jagr drove the bus.

Quote:
In the end, my whole argument would be that, while Jagr and Francis would both remain with about the same relative point numbers as each other in any case, I would bet that both would lose points if they were playing with different players. Put Jagr with Straka and Francis with Barnes and Rob Brown in 97-98, I bet both lose at least 10% of their points. In other words, while one player might be better than the other, when their numbers are at the level that Jagr, Francis, Gilmour and Andreychuk's are, their totals are a sum between linemates, not based on one's ability to incease the other's production.
Totals are never a sum between linemates. that's not how it works.

And Jagr did have lesser players with him in 1999 and 2000, and look what happened.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stansfield View Post
Here is every goal that Gilmour and Andreychuk were involved in, in the 1993 season after the Leafs aquired Andreychuk. Every goal Andreychuk scored that wasn't assisted by Gilmour is in bold. Clearly Andreychuk, (and the rest of the leafs for that matter) were riding Gilmour's coattails.

Feb 3 vs NYI Andreychuk 30 (Gilmour, Ellett)
Feb 9 vs TBL Gilmour 20 (Ellett, Cullen)
Feb 11 vs VAN Andreychuk 31 (Gilmour), Gilmour 21 (Anderson)
Feb 13 vs MIN Cullen 15 (Gilmour, Andreychuk), Andreychuk 32 (Gilmour), Anderson 16 (Gilmour), Andreychuk 33 (Anderson, Gilmour), Ellett 5 (Gilmour)
Feb 14 vs MIN Berg 12 (Gilmour), Gill 8 (Ellett, Gilmour), Gilmour 22 (Gill, Ellett)
Feb 17 vs CAL Borschevsky 23 (Andreychuk, Gilmour), Andreychuk 34 (Gilmour, Borschevsky), Andreychuk 35 (Anderson, Gilmour)
Feb 19 vs TBL Andreychuk 36 (Gill, Gilmour), Borschevsky 24 (Andreychuk), Gilmour 23 (Osborne), Gilmour 24 (Andreychuk, Borschevsky)
Feb 20 vs BOS Osborne 11 (Gilmour), Andreychuk 37 (Gilmour, Macoun)
Feb 22 vs VAN Andreychuk 38 (Gill, Gilmour), Clark 11 (Gilmour), Borschevsky 25 (Gilmour, Anderson)
Feb 25 vs SJS Andreychuk 39 (Borschevsky, Mironov)
Feb 27 vs LAK Andreychuk 40 (Clark, Gilmour)
Mar 3 vs MIN Andreychuk 41 (Gilmour, Borschevsky)
Mar 5 vs DET Gilmour 25 (Ellett, Gill)
Mar 6 vs WPG Foligno 11 (Gilmour, Krushelnyski), Andreychuk 42 (Mironov, Potvin)
Mar 9 vs WSH Andreychuk 43 (Anderson, Gilmour)
Mar 10 vs HAR Andreychuk 44 (Gill, Anderson)[/B], Andreychuk 45 (Berehowsky, Gilmour), Gilmour 26 (Berehowsky, Gill)
Mar 12 vs TBL Anderson 18 (Gilmour, Macoun), Andreychuk 46 (Anderson), Anderson 19 (Gill, Gilmour), Gilmour 27 (Andreychuk, Rouse)
Mar 15 vs QUE Andreychuk 47 (Gill, Borschevsky), Andreychuk 48 (Gill, Borschevsky)
Mar 18 vs TBL Pearson 18 (Gilmour, Gill)
Mar 20 vs EDM Andreychuk 49 (Gilmour, Borschevsky), Gilmour 28 (Andreychuk, Berehowsky), Borschevsky 28 (Gilmour, Andreychuk)
Mar 23 vs WPG Borschevsky 29 (Andreychuk), Gilmour 29 (Andreychuk, Borschevsky), Andreychuk 50 (Gilmour, Berehowsky)
Mar 25 vs MIN Borschevsky 30 (Gilmour, Gill), Gill 11 (Gilmour, Borschevsky), Gilmour 30 (Gill)
Mar 27 vs EDM Andreychuk 51 (Gilmour, Borschevsky), Berehowsky 2 (Gilmour), Andreychuk 52 (Gill, Berehowsky)
Mar 28 vs CAL Gilmour 31 (Anderson, Lefebvre), Borschevsky 33 (Gilmour, Gill)
Mar 31 vs LAK Macoun 4 (Gilmour), Berehowsky 3 (Macoun, Gilmour), Borschevsky 34 (Gilmour, Andreychuk)
Apr 3 vs NJD Gilmour 32 (Andreychuk, Anderson)
Apr 4 vs PHI shutout
Apr 8 vs WPG Anderson 21 (Cullen, Gilmour), Berehowsky 4 (Borschevsky, Gilmour)
Apr 10 vs PHI shutout again
Apr 11 vs HAR Andreychuk 53 (Clark, Berehowsky), Mcllwain 14 (Ellett, Andreychuk) *Gilmour did not play
Apr 13 vs STL Andreychuk 54 (Anderson, Rouse)
Apr 15 vs CHI neither score
wow.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I think it's easy - 1994-95: Jagr's first Art Ross and the first time Francis finished Top 10 in points.
well, duh.

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10-22-2012, 02:17 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Darth Yoda View Post
I have no idea what i have to do to be able to vote in polls on this board, but as a Penguin fan i can happily say that Gilmour was better. I'm willing to bet that a switch of these two guys would have gotten us a third straight cup in 1992-93, and possibly even a fourth the year after. No way the Islanders would have taken us to seven games and no way that Montreal team would have shut us out enough. I dont think LA would have won a cup in this scenario either considering Gilmours play against Gretzky that year, when we had Mario as well. Cant beat a good dynasty really.
I'm not saying you're absolutely wrong, because Gilmour was on fire in '93, but that's a rather bold assumption to make IMO. First, who's to say the Pens even get past the Rangers in '92 without Francis? It was Francis and Jagr that were mainly responsible for picking up the scoring slack once Mario was injured and the Pens faced a 2-1 deficit. As far as '93, Francis played well and there were other issues that led to the loss to the Islanders (weak PP, despite Mario, SH goals against, shaky defense/goaltending, etc.), so while it's possible Gilmour could have made the difference in a close 7 game series, it seems rather speculative and far from given.

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10-22-2012, 02:40 AM
  #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
Obviously Jagr was the more offensively gifted player, and a better player overall, but the idea that he was driving the bus in his 3rd and 4th season in the NHL doesn't hold weight imo. Jagr was a star in the making, but not there yet, to try and discredit an established vet like Francis who already had a 100 point season with the whalers is a bit harsh. Francis was basically a 80 point player or better for nearly a decade, with a couple 90 point seasons and a 100 point season mixed in.

I don't see Jagr artificially bumping his numbers all that much, aside from 95-96. The numbers produced by Francis were basically his numbers throughout the early part of his career, give or take few points from season to season most likely a result of random chance, obviously playing with Jagr doesn't hurt, but being the 3rd, 4th, 5th best option, opposed to being the go guy with the whalers may have negatively impacted his numbers enough to close the gap a bit of being JJ's linemate.
I think there's some confusion about the period when Jagr was "driving the bus." I believe most of us are talking about the four seasons '95 to '98, when:

A) Francis & Jagr were definitely linemates (Lemieux was on their line in '97 as well)
B) Jagr was the best forward in the league besides Lemieux (and roughly equal to... perhaps even better than Lemieux at ES... although Lindros was roughly equal to and perhaps better at ES during the lockout-shortened '95 season)
C) Francis was finishing higher than he ever had/would in points, putting up by far his best adjusted point seasons, and had mostly very good plus-minus numbers (despite being a minus over the rest of his career besides '95-98).

Others seem to be assuming that what is being claimed is that Jagr was also "driving the bus" from the time Francis arrived in late '91 through '94. I am not claiming this and it doesn't seem that others (who recognize that Francis was not the driving force from '95-98) are claiming this either. Mainly, I don't actually know or remember how much they were linemates from '92-94. However, to whatever extent they were linemates, the data suggests that Jagr was as good or better than Francis, particularly at even strength (which is what is primarily being considered with respect to the linemate effect):

'92 (70 games each): Jagr 69 points (60 Even Strength Pts), +12 ... Francis 54 points (36 ES Pts), -7
'93: Jagr 81 gms, 94 points (71 ES Pts), +30... Francis 84 gms, 100 points (41 ES Pts), +6
'94: Jagr 80 gms, 99 points (70 ES Pts), +15... Francis 82 gms, 93 points (49 ES Pts), -3

Totals from '92-94:
Jagr 231 gms, 262 points (201 ES Pts), +57
Francis 236 gms, 247 points (126 ES Pts), -4

The discrepancy in ES points and +/- suggests that they weren't constantly linemates as they were from '95-98. Much/most of the PP time that Jagr did get from '92-94 was as a second/third fiddle on the second unit, while Francis was mostly either on the top unit with Lemieux or running the second PP unit. That's the only reason their point totals are similar during those seasons. I wouldn't necessarily say Jagr was "driving the bus" with Francis as more of a passenger from '92-94, because much of the time Francis was not even on the same bus. However, I also wouldn't say the power shifted starting in '95, because I don't see any full season where Francis was a Pen and clearly a better player than Jagr.


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 10-22-2012 at 02:46 AM.
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10-22-2012, 06:37 PM
  #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
I think there's some confusion about the period when Jagr was "driving the bus." I believe most of us are talking about the four seasons '95 to '98, when:

A) Francis & Jagr were definitely linemates (Lemieux was on their line in '97 as well)
B) Jagr was the best forward in the league besides Lemieux (and roughly equal to... perhaps even better than Lemieux at ES... although Lindros was roughly equal to and perhaps better at ES during the lockout-shortened '95 season)
C) Francis was finishing higher than he ever had/would in points, putting up by far his best adjusted point seasons, and had mostly very good plus-minus numbers (despite being a minus over the rest of his career besides '95-98).

Others seem to be assuming that what is being claimed is that Jagr was also "driving the bus" from the time Francis arrived in late '91 through '94. I am not claiming this and it doesn't seem that others (who recognize that Francis was not the driving force from '95-98) are claiming this either. Mainly, I don't actually know or remember how much they were linemates from '92-94. However, to whatever extent they were linemates, the data suggests that Jagr was as good or better than Francis, particularly at even strength (which is what is primarily being considered with respect to the linemate effect):

'92 (70 games each): Jagr 69 points (60 Even Strength Pts), +12 ... Francis 54 points (36 ES Pts), -7
'93: Jagr 81 gms, 94 points (71 ES Pts), +30... Francis 84 gms, 100 points (41 ES Pts), +6
'94: Jagr 80 gms, 99 points (70 ES Pts), +15... Francis 82 gms, 93 points (49 ES Pts), -3

Totals from '92-94:
Jagr 231 gms, 262 points (201 ES Pts), +57
Francis 236 gms, 247 points (126 ES Pts), -4

The discrepancy in ES points and +/- suggests that they weren't constantly linemates as they were from '95-98. Much/most of the PP time that Jagr did get from '92-94 was as a second/third fiddle on the second unit, while Francis was mostly either on the top unit with Lemieux or running the second PP unit. That's the only reason their point totals are similar during those seasons. I wouldn't necessarily say Jagr was "driving the bus" with Francis as more of a passenger from '92-94, because much of the time Francis was not even on the same bus. However, I also wouldn't say the power shifted starting in '95, because I don't see any full season where Francis was a Pen and clearly a better player than Jagr.
Was anyone claiming Francis was better than Jagr?

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10-22-2012, 06:47 PM
  #118
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I was really surprised to see those numbers, BTW... I had no idea that Jagr was such a dominant ES producer right from his 2nd season. Clearly the only reason Francis was even close in total points over that time was PP opportunities.

Jagr was 12th, 10th, and 2nd in the league in ESP in 92, 93, 94.

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10-22-2012, 07:24 PM
  #119
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dennis Bonvie View Post
Was anyone claiming Francis was better than Jagr?
It's difficult to say, but it seemed that some were suggesting that from '92 to '94, Francis was Jagr's equal and perhaps even better (i.e. Francis was driving the bus). It was also suggested that even from '95 to '98, they may have equally benefited from being linemates. Here are some relevant quotes from this thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by UnrefinedCrude View Post
I have a hard time telling when exactly the balance shifted, I would say there is merit to saying Jagr had some 'Francis driven' seasons as well.
Yet, as shown, there is no evidence of any "Francis driven" seasons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
Obviously Jagr was the more offensively gifted player, and a better player overall, but the idea that he was driving the bus in his 3rd and 4th season in the NHL doesn't hold weight imo. Jagr was a star in the making, but not there yet, to try and discredit an established vet like Francis who already had a 100 point season with the whalers is a bit harsh. Francis was basically a 80 point player or better for nearly a decade, with a couple 90 point seasons and a 100 point season mixed in.

I don't see Jagr artificially bumping his numbers all that much, aside from 95-96. The numbers produced by Francis were basically his numbers throughout the early part of his career, give or take few points from season to season most likely a result of random chance, obviously playing with Jagr doesn't hurt, but being the 3rd, 4th, 5th best option, opposed to being the go guy with the whalers may have negatively impacted his numbers enough to close the gap a bit of being JJ's linemate.
Again, the only reason Jagr may not have been driving the bus more than Francis is that they often weren't on the same bus from '92-94. It's a common misconception that Jagr wasn't one of the best forwards during those years, but that's due in large part to lack of opportunity (TOI on PP, not on top line until '94 when Mario missed most of season). Also, Francis' raw point totals in Hartford, during a higher scoring decade, are being equated to his point totals with the Pens, as scoring consistently declined to much lower levels.

Whether Francis' decreased opportunity (no longer the top center on his team) roughly evened out his having better linemates... well, this is certainly possible, but does not affect the fact that there appears no evidence that Francis was driving the ES production when he and Jagr were linemates.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafsdude7 View Post
In the end, my whole argument would be that, while Jagr and Francis would both remain with about the same relative point numbers as each other in any case, I would bet that both would lose points if they were playing with different players. Put Jagr with Straka and Francis with Barnes and Rob Brown in 97-98, I bet both lose at least 10% of their points.
By saying that each would be expected to decrease their production similarly with different linemates, it seems to be implied that they were equally responsible for the production of their line while they were linemates. Obviously the previous ('92-94) and subsequent (after '98) production of each player contradicts such a claim.

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10-22-2012, 08:36 PM
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Did Francis ever play a full season on a line with Mario and Jagr?

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10-22-2012, 11:41 PM
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Did Francis ever play a full season on a line with Mario and Jagr?
He did in '97, although Jagr was injured for 19 games, so it was most of a season.

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10-23-2012, 06:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
I'm not saying you're absolutely wrong, because Gilmour was on fire in '93, but that's a rather bold assumption to make IMO. First, who's to say the Pens even get past the Rangers in '92 without Francis? It was Francis and Jagr that were mainly responsible for picking up the scoring slack once Mario was injured and the Pens faced a 2-1 deficit. As far as '93, Francis played well and there were other issues that led to the loss to the Islanders (weak PP, despite Mario, SH goals against, shaky defense/goaltending, etc.), so while it's possible Gilmour could have made the difference in a close 7 game series, it seems rather speculative and far from given.
I just feel that there were enough talent on the wing present on the Penguins back than to have given Gilmour a good boost during all of those years. Francis was very good during some stretches there, but i think Gilmour would have been a more constant contributer of tip-top hockey.

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10-23-2012, 09:20 AM
  #123
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24-9 if looking at people I actually recognize from this section.

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10-23-2012, 05:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
It's difficult to say, but it seemed that some were suggesting that from '92 to '94, Francis was Jagr's equal and perhaps even better (i.e. Francis was driving the bus). It was also suggested that even from '95 to '98, they may have equally benefited from being linemates. Here are some relevant quotes from this thread:



Yet, as shown, there is no evidence of any "Francis driven" seasons.


Again, the only reason Jagr may not have been driving the bus more than Francis is that they often weren't on the same bus from '92-94. It's a common misconception that Jagr wasn't one of the best forwards during those years, but that's due in large part to lack of opportunity (TOI on PP, not on top line until '94 when Mario missed most of season). Also, Francis' raw point totals in Hartford, during a higher scoring decade, are being equated to his point totals with the Pens, as scoring consistently declined to much lower levels.

Whether Francis' decreased opportunity (no longer the top center on his team) roughly evened out his having better linemates... well, this is certainly possible, but does not affect the fact that there appears no evidence that Francis was driving the ES production when he and Jagr were linemates.



By saying that each would be expected to decrease their production similarly with different linemates, it seems to be implied that they were equally responsible for the production of their line while they were linemates. Obviously the previous ('92-94) and subsequent (after '98) production of each player contradicts such a claim.
I think you could make the case that Francis was the better player in the playoffs from 91-95.

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10-23-2012, 05:21 PM
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I think you could make the case that Francis was the better player in the playoffs from 91-95.
No, thatís not a hard case to make. He outscored Jagr 82-67 in that time, while being better defensively. It would be nice if we had a full PP/ES breakdown for those years, but if the ratios from the regular season hold true, then Jagr would have outscored Francis approximately 51-42 over those 5 playoffs. Then you start to wonder if, like in the regular season, the difference in PP opportunity wasnít the only thing holding Jagrís numbers back from being considerably higher.

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