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Old
12-17-2012, 07:51 PM
  #176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Woodballs View Post
How the hell do the vikings have a playoff spot?
Quote:
Wins tie break over Dallas based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate NY Giants (Dallas wins tie break over NY Giants based on best win percentage in division games). Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Chicago (Minnesota wins tie break over Chicago based on best win percentage in division games).
http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/t.../2/order/false

We DO NOT control our own destiny though.

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12-17-2012, 11:03 PM
  #177
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AFC:

#1 HOU 12-2 - 10-1 conference record (clinched AFC South)
#2 DEN 11-3 - 8-2 conference record (clinch AFC West)
#3 NE 10-4 - 9-1 conference record (clinched AFC East)
#4 BAL 9-5 - 8-3 conference record (clinched playoff spot)
#5 IND 9-5 - 6-4 conference record - WC 1
#6 CIN 8-6 - 5-5 conference record - WC 2

IN THE HUNT:

PIT 7-7 - 4-6 conference record
MIA 6-8 - 4-6 conference record (probably only alive because they beat CIN)

Bengals clinch with win @ PIT.

Colts clinch with win @ KC or a PIT loss.


NFC:

#1 ATL 12-2 - 8-2 conference record (clinched NFC South)
#2 SF 10-3-1 - 6-3-1 conference record...2-1-1 division record (clinched playoff spot)
#3 GB 10-4 - 8-3 conference record (clinched NFC North)
#4 WAS 8-6 - 6-4 conference record...3-1 division record
#5 SEA 9-5 - 6-4 conference record...1-3 division record - WC 1
#6 MIN 8-6 - 6-5 conference record - WC 2

IN THE HUNT:

CHI 8-6 - 5-5 conference record
DAL 8-6 - 5-5 conference record...3-2 division record
NYG 8-6 - 7-4 conference record...2-3 division record
STL 6-7-1 - 5-4-1 conference record

Apologies to Saints fans if they are still alive. No idea what type of wacky scenario it takes for them to get in at 8-8 and jump over FIVE TEAMS.

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Old
12-17-2012, 11:38 PM
  #178
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LiquidSnake View Post
I love everyone writing off the Seahawks.
Who exactly is writing off the Seahawks? They only need to win 1 out of their final 2 games, both of which are at home, to grab a playoff spot. Seattle is effectively a mortal lock for one of the two Wild Cards. The other will go to the second-place team in the NFC North or the second-place team in the NFC East. My money is on the NFC East team, because even if the Bears win out, they would lose the tiebreaker to any NFC East team that did the same.

The most likely outcome, in my opinion:

1. Atlanta
2. San Francisco
3. Green Bay
4. Washington
5. Seattle
6. New York Giants

I think it's fair to say that the only real questionable part of this outcome is that it is based on the assumption that the only two real "tossup" games in the next two weeks involving the NFC East teams go in favor of the Giants (Week 16 @ Baltimore) and the Redskins (Week 17 vs. Dallas). Other than those two, most of the Week 16 and 17 games have fairly predictable outcomes.

The winner of that Cowboys-Redskins game in Week 17 will win the NFC East. Assuming that Seattle has one spot effectively locked down, if the Giants win out, the loser of that game will miss the playoffs. On paper, the Cowboys really should be the favorites to win that game and the NFC East. But recent history has shown that the Cowboys in big games have a habit of lighting that paper advantage on fire and allowing it to burn away meaninglessly. Maybe this season is different, maybe they have really pulled together after what happened two weeks ago. But you won't catch me betting on the Cowboys in a winner-take-all game. They do have a much better chance against the overachieving Redskins in a Week 17 "play-in" game this year than they did last year in the same situation against a Giants team that was red-hot, extremely talented, and battle-tested.

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Old
12-18-2012, 01:56 AM
  #179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post

NFC:

#1 ATL 12-2 - 8-2 conference record (clinched NFC South)
#2 SF 10-3-1 - 6-3-1 conference record...2-1-1 division record (clinched playoff spot)
#3 GB 10-4 - 8-3 conference record (clinched NFC North)
#4 WAS 8-6 - 6-4 conference record...3-1 division record
#5 SEA 9-5 - 6-4 conference record...1-3 division record - WC 1
#6 MIN 8-6 - 6-5 conference record - WC 2

IN THE HUNT:

CHI 8-6 - 5-5 conference record
DAL 8-6 - 5-5 conference record...3-2 division record
NYG 8-6 - 7-4 conference record...2-3 division record
STL 6-7-1 - 5-4-1 conference record

Apologies to Saints fans if they are still alive. No idea what type of wacky scenario it takes for them to get in at 8-8 and jump over FIVE TEAMS.
From Wikipedia (this season's talk page):

NO: W @ Cowboys, W vs. Panthers - 8-8, 6-6 conference record
MIN: L @ Texans, L vs. Packers - 8-8, 3-3 division record, 6-6 conference record
CHI: L @ Cardinals, L @ Lions, 8-8, 2-4 division record, 5-7 conference record
DAL: L vs. Saints, L at Redskins, 8-8, 3-3 division record, 5-7 conference record
NYG: L @ Ravens, L vs. Eagles, 8-8, 2-4 division record, 7-5 conference record
STL: L @ Buccaneers and/or L @ Seahawks, 7-8-1 or 6-9-1

Common opponents for NO and MIN:
NO: L vs. Redskins, L @ Packers, W @ Buccaneers, L vs. 49ers, W @ Buccaneers - 2-3
MIN: W vs. 49ers, L @ Redskins, L vs. Buccaneers, L @ Packers, L vs. Packers - 1-4

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Old
12-18-2012, 06:02 AM
  #180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Woodballs View Post
How the hell do the vikings have a playoff spot?

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Old
12-18-2012, 10:06 AM
  #181
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolorous Edd View Post
From Wikipedia (this season's talk page):

NO: W @ Cowboys, W vs. Panthers - 8-8, 6-6 conference record
MIN: L @ Texans, L vs. Packers - 8-8, 3-3 division record, 6-6 conference record
CHI: L @ Cardinals, L @ Lions, 8-8, 2-4 division record, 5-7 conference record
DAL: L vs. Saints, L at Redskins, 8-8, 3-3 division record, 5-7 conference record
NYG: L @ Ravens, L vs. Eagles, 8-8, 2-4 division record, 7-5 conference record
STL: L @ Buccaneers and/or L @ Seahawks, 7-8-1 or 6-9-1

Common opponents for NO and MIN:
NO: L vs. Redskins, L @ Packers, W @ Buccaneers, L vs. 49ers, W @ Buccaneers - 2-3
MIN: W vs. 49ers, L @ Redskins, L vs. Buccaneers, L @ Packers, L vs. Packers - 1-4
Ahhh, thanks.

And the Dolphins scenario is:

Win both games
Jets need to lose 1 game so Miami finishes ahead of them in the dvision
Steelers beat Bengals
Browns beat Steelers
Ravens beat Bengals

Dolphins get in at 8-8 with 6-6 conference record, CIN and PIT would have 7 conference losses.


Last edited by Marc the Habs Fan: 12-18-2012 at 10:30 AM.
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Old
12-18-2012, 11:41 AM
  #182
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Ahhh, thanks.

And the Dolphins scenario is:

Win both games
Jets need to lose 1 game so Miami finishes ahead of them in the dvision
Steelers beat Bengals
Browns beat Steelers
Ravens beat Bengals

Dolphins get in at 8-8 with 6-6 conference record, CIN and PIT would have 7 conference losses.
given how the Steelers have played against **** teams this year I can see that happening. Steelers will crush the Bengals then get beat by the Browns. Yup, a definite possibility.

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Old
12-18-2012, 12:06 PM
  #183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Ahhh, thanks.

And the Dolphins scenario is:

Win both games
Jets need to lose 1 game so Miami finishes ahead of them in the dvision
Steelers beat Bengals
Browns beat Steelers
Ravens beat Bengals

Dolphins get in at 8-8 with 6-6 conference record, CIN and PIT would have 7 conference losses.
Does it matter which game the Jets lose? If the Jets beat Buffalo but lose to San Diego, then they tie on division record (I'm not sure how the common opponents tiebreak shakes out, which comes before conference record that Miami would win regardless which game the Jets lost).

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Old
12-18-2012, 01:18 PM
  #184
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IlRF the Jets lost to both non common opponents while Miami went 1-1 so the Dolphins lose any 8-8 tiebreaker. If the Jets lose again they'll pick up their 9th loss and be a game back anyway. Dolphins probably aren't beating New England anyway since they'll likely still be playing for seeding.

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12-18-2012, 01:25 PM
  #185
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Originally Posted by What the Faulk View Post
IlRF the Jets lost to both non common opponents while Miami went 1-1 so the Dolphins lose any 8-8 tiebreaker. If the Jets lose again they'll pick up their 9th loss and be a game back anyway. Dolphins probably aren't beating New England anyway since they'll likely still be playing for seeding.
Yeah, I forgot they have the same record now derp.

Jets are 0-1 in non-common games (L to Pitt, play SD this week)
Miami is 2-0 in non-common games (W Cincinnati, W Oakland) so yeah, they'd lose an 8-8 tie with the Jets.

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Old
12-18-2012, 03:25 PM
  #186
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blades of Glory View Post
Who exactly is writing off the Seahawks? They only need to win 1 out of their final 2 games, both of which are at home, to grab a playoff spot. Seattle is effectively a mortal lock for one of the two Wild Cards. The other will go to the second-place team in the NFC North or the second-place team in the NFC East. My money is on the NFC East team, because even if the Bears win out, they would lose the tiebreaker to any NFC East team that did the same.

The most likely outcome, in my opinion:

1. Atlanta
2. San Francisco
3. Green Bay
4. Washington
5. Seattle
6. New York Giants

I think it's fair to say that the only real questionable part of this outcome is that it is based on the assumption that the only two real "tossup" games in the next two weeks involving the NFC East teams go in favor of the Giants (Week 16 @ Baltimore) and the Redskins (Week 17 vs. Dallas). Other than those two, most of the Week 16 and 17 games have fairly predictable outcomes.

The winner of that Cowboys-Redskins game in Week 17 will win the NFC East. Assuming that Seattle has one spot effectively locked down, if the Giants win out, the loser of that game will miss the playoffs. On paper, the Cowboys really should be the favorites to win that game and the NFC East. But recent history has shown that the Cowboys in big games have a habit of lighting that paper advantage on fire and allowing it to burn away meaninglessly. Maybe this season is different, maybe they have really pulled together after what happened two weeks ago. But you won't catch me betting on the Cowboys in a winner-take-all game. They do have a much better chance against the overachieving Redskins in a Week 17 "play-in" game this year than they did last year in the same situation against a Giants team that was red-hot, extremely talented, and battle-tested.
How do the Cowboys get tiebreak over BEars?

I thought head to head was first thing used (Bears beat the Cowboys)?

--- Edit ,, Nevermind I see the Cowboys win Div and Bears lose WC TB

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Old
12-18-2012, 04:02 PM
  #187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Apologies to Saints fans if they are still alive. No idea what type of wacky scenario it takes for them to get in at 8-8 and jump over FIVE TEAMS.
If the Saints, Vikings, Bears, Cowboys and Giants are all 8-8, Saints get in as the #6.

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Old
12-20-2012, 02:11 PM
  #188
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It is almost ridiculous how much better the Seahawks and 49ers' defenses are than the rest of the NFL. SF has allowed 218 points, Seattle 219. The next lowest total is Chicago at 240. The 49ers have faced Tom Brady, Drew Brees, AND Aaron Rodgers this year, all on the road, and they have dominated each one of them. Yikes.

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Old
12-23-2012, 11:03 AM
  #189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Ahhh, thanks.

And the Dolphins scenario is:

Win both games
Jets need to lose 1 game so Miami finishes ahead of them in the dvision
Steelers beat Bengals
Browns beat Steelers
Ravens beat Bengals

Dolphins get in at 8-8 with 6-6 conference record, CIN and PIT would have 7 conference losses.
Honestly, I'm just amazed the Dolphins are still alive at this point given that I know I expected them to be a complete disaster. If not for those heartbreaking OT losses, they could have a much more serious shot at the postseason. Still, I'm impressed with how they came out this year given what they had to work with (and it's nice to see the Dolphins D of old come back to life).

Also, it's always a good feeling to know you're playing for something when the Jets have nothing to play for

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Old
12-23-2012, 06:16 PM
  #190
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So some of the fallout from today with the SEA game on tap:

DAL @ WSH is for the NFC East. Winner takes it.

WSH can still clinch a playoff berth if they lose that game IF MIN + CHI lose.

Giants need to beat the Eagles + Redskins beat Cowboys + MIN loss + CHI loss to clinch a WC spot. They can not win the NFC East.

Vikings control their destiny, win and they are in.

Bears need a win + MIN loss.


In the AFC: Colts and Bengals are locked into the 5th and 6th seeds. Baltimore can only finish as high as 3rd. HOU-DEN-NE all battling for seeds 1-3.

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Old
12-23-2012, 06:21 PM
  #191
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Yep Bears have to win and hope the Packers take care of Vikes

Though if Seahawks lose tonight there is still that scenario in which Bears can get in at 10-6 with 2 Seahawk losses

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12-23-2012, 06:24 PM
  #192
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Captain Obvious says Dal/WSH will be flexed to Sunday Night

Fox won't be happy but that will be a ratings bonanza

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12-23-2012, 06:28 PM
  #193
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
In the AFC: Colts and Bengals are locked into the 5th and 6th seeds. Baltimore can only finish as high as 3rd. HOU-DEN-NE all battling for seeds 1-3.
Important, IMO for the Texans to win against the Colts and take home the #1 seed in the AFC. That way, they avoid having to face both the Broncos and Patriots.

They have 1 more win than the Pats whom they got blown out against, but they beat the Broncos, thus have the tie breaker over them and are currently tied record wise.

If they beat the Colts, they secure #1. Broncos, if the win out, get the #2 seed, plus a bye week.

That leaves NE, BAL and the 2 division winners against the Colts and Bengals.

If NE takes care of business in WC weekend, they face the Broncos no matter what.

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12-23-2012, 06:42 PM
  #194
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Originally Posted by Reality Check View Post
Captain Obvious says Dal/WSH will be flexed to Sunday Night

Fox won't be happy but that will be a ratings bonanza
2nd year in a row they'd lose Dallas in Week 17


Colts and Bengals with nothing to play for, should be a free pass for the Texans.

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12-23-2012, 06:48 PM
  #195
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Vikes hosting the Packers in a win and in scenario with AP close to the record could also work.

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12-23-2012, 06:49 PM
  #196
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
So some of the fallout from today with the SEA game on tap:

DAL @ WSH is for the NFC East. Winner takes it.

WSH can still clinch a playoff berth if they lose that game IF MIN + CHI lose.

Giants need to beat the Eagles + Redskins beat Cowboys + MIN loss + CHI loss to clinch a WC spot. They can not win the NFC East.

Vikings control their destiny, win and they are in.

Bears need a win + MIN loss.


In the AFC: Colts and Bengals are locked into the 5th and 6th seeds. Baltimore can only finish as high as 3rd. HOU-DEN-NE all battling for seeds 1-3.
Giants have the tiebreak over the Vikes? I guess that makes it a little bit easier than two Seattle losses, but not really.

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12-23-2012, 06:49 PM
  #197
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What happens if the Bears and Vikings both lose?

Edit: nvm, didn't see Marc's post.

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12-23-2012, 07:00 PM
  #198
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Giants have the tiebreak over the Vikes?
Yep, they do.

7-4 conference record for Giants.

6-5 conference record for Vikings.

Vikings can also clinch even if they lose: With Bears loss + Giants loss + Redskins beating Dallas.

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12-23-2012, 07:03 PM
  #199
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Originally Posted by What the Faulk View Post
Vikes hosting the Packers in a win and in scenario with AP close to the record could also work.
Not with Dallas in the picture. Networks goes for rating and that will absolutely be their first choice.

I'm assuming Fox has a doubleheader so depending on what Seattle does tonight, MIN/GB and CHI/DET would play at the same time. Likely in the late game spot.

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12-23-2012, 08:27 PM
  #200
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2nd year in a row they'd lose Dallas in Week 17


Colts and Bengals with nothing to play for, should be a free pass for the Texans.
But will the Colts go all out & try to win what will certainly be a highly emotional game with the return of Chuck Pagano? I say they will. And keep in mind, the Texans have never won in Indy......even against last year's dreadful team. Methinks Houston is going to completely blow this and end up the #3 seed.

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