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All Purpose Luongo Trade Discussion (New news) MOD WARNING IN OP

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Old
10-19-2012, 12:07 PM
  #726
danfromwaterloo
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Given that the new CBA will undoubtedly be tighter than the existing one, and that the salary cap will likely get lowered as a result, I think Luongo's value will get even lower than it already is.

Fact is, when he's on his game, he's about a 5th or 6th on the depth chart for goalies in the league, at best (Lundqvist, Rinne, Quick, Miller, and possibly, Price). That's when he's on. He's shown recently to be, on most days, between 10th and 15th. Otherwise, why bother replacing him with an unknown quantity in Schneider, unless you're convinced Schneider is going to be better.

His cap hit is one of the biggest in the league for goaltenders. I believe he's third behind Rinne and Lundqvist. But he's also on the books for a ton more years.

So, yes, even though he's undoubtedly a really good goalie, his cap hit ruins his value.

If the Leafs trade to get Luongo, they would need to include equivalent cap dumps to offset it, then, trade value for value.

So, one of Connelly, Lombardi, or Komasarek, to start. I would also wager that Reimer would be included in that, as I think, long term, Scrivens is the better goalie for the future, to address the need of a vacancy in net in Vancouver. Next, I think you now need to offset the future commitment to an older Luongo with a draft pick from Vancouver. I would wager a 1st round pick. That way, when we're paying Luo years down the line for crappy old man goaltending, we're offsetting that with getting a younger talent who we're underpaying.

So, at this point, I think we've offset the damage to Luo's punitive contract.

Luongo + 1st = Lombardi + Reimer + current non-financial value of Luongo

So, what's a top 10 goalie worth in the league? Halak got traded for Eller + Schultz. Now, I think Luongo is a better goalie now than Halak was, but it's pretty clear from this example that goaltending doesn't tend to demand a high value in trades. Similarly, from what I could find, goalies don't get traded all that often. I recall that Felix Potvin (notably in a similar situation) got us Bryan Berard, a Calder trophy winner. While times have certainly changed, it appears that a good goalie will cost you either one can't-miss young player, or two good candidates.

The Leafs shouldn't be thinking of either Gardiner or Rielly, but more along the lines of two of Kadri, Colbourne, or Ashton.

So, I'll likely get torn down from both sides for this thought, but:

Luongo + 1st = Lombardi + Reimer + Kadri + Ashton

That seems to me to be realistic.

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Old
10-19-2012, 12:09 PM
  #727
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danfromwaterloo View Post
Given that the new CBA will undoubtedly be tighter than the existing one, and that the salary cap will likely get lowered as a result, I think Luongo's value will get even lower than it already is.

Fact is, when he's on his game, he's about a 5th or 6th on the depth chart for goalies in the league, at best (Lundqvist, Rinne, Quick, Miller, and possibly, Price). That's when he's on. He's shown recently to be, on most days, between 10th and 15th. Otherwise, why bother replacing him with an unknown quantity in Schneider, unless you're convinced Schneider is going to be better.

His cap hit is one of the biggest in the league for goaltenders. I believe he's third behind Rinne and Lundqvist. But he's also on the books for a ton more years.

So, yes, even though he's undoubtedly a really good goalie, his cap hit ruins his value.

If the Leafs trade to get Luongo, they would need to include equivalent cap dumps to offset it, then, trade value for value.

So, one of Connelly, Lombardi, or Komasarek, to start. I would also wager that Reimer would be included in that, as I think, long term, Scrivens is the better goalie for the future, to address the need of a vacancy in net in Vancouver. Next, I think you now need to offset the future commitment to an older Luongo with a draft pick from Vancouver. I would wager a 1st round pick. That way, when we're paying Luo years down the line for crappy old man goaltending, we're offsetting that with getting a younger talent who we're underpaying.

So, at this point, I think we've offset the damage to Luo's punitive contract.

Luongo + 1st = Lombardi + Reimer + current non-financial value of Luongo

So, what's a top 10 goalie worth in the league? Halak got traded for Eller + Schultz. Now, I think Luongo is a better goalie now than Halak was, but it's pretty clear from this example that goaltending doesn't tend to demand a high value in trades. Similarly, from what I could find, goalies don't get traded all that often. I recall that Felix Potvin (notably in a similar situation) got us Bryan Berard, a Calder trophy winner. While times have certainly changed, it appears that a good goalie will cost you either one can't-miss young player, or two good candidates.

The Leafs shouldn't be thinking of either Gardiner or Rielly, but more along the lines of two of Kadri, Colbourne, or Ashton.

So, I'll likely get torn down from both sides for this thought, but:

Luongo + 1st = Lombardi + Reimer + Kadri + Ashton

That seems to me to be realistic.
I'll only say this, there is zero chance that Van adds a 1st to Luongo unless they are being rewarded big time....which your proposal does not do.

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10-19-2012, 12:10 PM
  #728
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^Pass. I wouldn't trade our 1st alone for that package. Adding a 1st would require a lot more coming back.

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10-19-2012, 12:11 PM
  #729
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Haven't seen anything posted yet, so...

CANUCKS GM GILLIS: LUONGO TO LEAFS RUMOURS ARE 'NOT TRUE'

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=407700

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10-19-2012, 12:12 PM
  #730
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Originally Posted by Beezeral View Post
All luongo has to do is block all trades except to Florida and gillis has no choice. Luongo has to be off the roster by next season. I don't think he will do it, but if he is set on Florida he can force gillis's hand
I disagree. And I think Luongo knows that if Florida does not come up with a decent offer then he will have to expand the teams he will go to. Vancouver can retain him as we are not over the cap and he is a good team mate.
If I was a betting person I would bet that he ends up in TO next year.

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10-19-2012, 12:15 PM
  #731
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Luongo does not have to be off the roster. If he stays, there is still a very good chance that he beats Schneider out for the starting position. Luongo probably believes this too, which is why he doesn't have a problem staying.
It doesn't matter how happy everyone is with a situation, with the cap at 62 million, the Canucks can't carry a 10 million cap hit for one position


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I disagree. And I think Luongo knows that if Florida does not come up with a decent offer then he will have to expand the teams he will go to. Vancouver can retain him as we are not over the cap and he is a good team mate.
If I was a betting person I would bet that he ends up in TO next year.

I think he will waive as well for another team as well. Van can keep luongo and Schneider for the upcoming season, but there isn't enough room for both in 2013

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10-19-2012, 12:19 PM
  #732
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ok, ill take your word for it as you're clearly more informed than i

by the way my point, clearly lost on you, was that asking what has schneider done is as silly as asking what has gardiner done
they're both top young players in their position
i happen to believe that a cornerstone goalie is worth more than a cornerstone dman. but that's just my opinion, and i wouldnt insult anyone for not sharing it.
My post was in response to someone who said that a good deal would be

Schneider + Raymond

for

Gardiner, Lupul, 1st

My logic was that Schneider and Gardiner are very close in value (with minor assets potentially going on either side depending on how you want to look at it) which leaves Raymond for Lupul + 1st. That's the kind of trade only a crack addict could ever dream up.

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10-19-2012, 12:20 PM
  #733
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Originally Posted by Eli View Post
Haven't seen anything posted yet, so...

CANUCKS GM GILLIS: LUONGO TO LEAFS RUMOURS ARE 'NOT TRUE'

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=407700
Not to comment either way....but what else would he say??? "Yup, it's a done deal!!"

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10-19-2012, 12:21 PM
  #734
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TOGuy14 View Post
My post was in response to someone who said that a good deal would be

Schneider + Raymond

for

Gardiner, Lupul, 1st

My logic was that Schneider and Gardiner are very close in value (with minor assets potentially going on either side depending on how you want to look at it) which leaves Raymond for Lupul + 1st. That's the kind of trade only a crack addict could ever dream up.
fair enough
though i think schneider has more value than gardiner
though that's just my opinion

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10-19-2012, 12:21 PM
  #735
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
I'll only say this, there is zero chance that Van adds a 1st to Luongo unless they are being rewarded big time....which your proposal does not do.
First, Vancouver's first round draft pick will be in the 20-30 range for the next few years, so it's not as valuable as you think.

Second, the addition of some future value is required to offset the future waste of Luongo's mega contract. I'm not sure that Vancouver fans understand just how bad a contract that is, and how it's going to financially cripple the team down the road.

Third, you can't put two goalies at once on the ice. Schneider is marginally better than Luongo, but having Luongo on the bench, as an unrealized asset, is damaging to the team versus deriving some value for him, regardless of whether you view is as "fair market value". Vancouver with these four players, and Schneider in net, is better for Vancouver than not having these four players, and having Luongo on the bench.

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10-19-2012, 12:23 PM
  #736
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Originally Posted by danfromwaterloo View Post
First, Vancouver's first round draft pick will be in the 20-30 range for the next few years, so it's not as valuable as you think.

Second, the addition of some future value is required to offset the future waste of Luongo's mega contract. I'm not sure that Vancouver fans understand just how bad a contract that is, and how it's going to financially cripple the team down the road.

Third, you can't put two goalies at once on the ice. Schneider is marginally better than Luongo, but having Luongo on the bench, as an unrealized asset, is damaging to the team versus deriving some value for him, regardless of whether you view is as "fair market value". Vancouver with these four players, and Schneider in net, is better for Vancouver than not having these four players, and having Luongo on the bench.
ok, ill bite
how is luongo's contract going to financially cripple the team down the road?

if spare parts is all that's offered for Luo, im comfortable with trading Schneider for a serious upgrade in the top 6

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10-19-2012, 12:25 PM
  #737
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danfromwaterloo View Post
First, Vancouver's first round draft pick will be in the 20-30 range for the next few years, so it's not as valuable as you think.

Second, the addition of some future value is required to offset the future waste of Luongo's mega contract. I'm not sure that Vancouver fans understand just how bad a contract that is, and how it's going to financially cripple the team down the road.

Third, you can't put two goalies at once on the ice. Schneider is marginally better than Luongo, but having Luongo on the bench, as an unrealized asset, is damaging to the team versus deriving some value for him, regardless of whether you view is as "fair market value". Vancouver with these four players, and Schneider in net, is better for Vancouver than not having these four players, and having Luongo on the bench.
If you don't want him, we're not going to pay you to take him. Let's call Kadri and the 1st a wash. It's essentially Luongo for Reimer(zero value to us), Ashton(throw in value), and Lombardi(negative value).

Essentially Luongo for free.

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10-19-2012, 12:25 PM
  #738
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
^Pass. I wouldn't trade our 1st alone for that package. Adding a 1st would require a lot more coming back.
Your 1st is going to be in the 20s. Ashton and Kadri are worth a 20th+ overall pick.

The general prescription for large salary dumps are prospects or picks. Until Vancouver addresses how to offset the crazy contract that Luongo has, he's not being moved, and all that money will be spent on keeping the end of the bench warm.

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10-19-2012, 12:27 PM
  #739
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Originally Posted by danfromwaterloo View Post
First, Vancouver's first round draft pick will be in the 20-30 range for the next few years, so it's not as valuable as you think.

Second, the addition of some future value is required to offset the future waste of Luongo's mega contract. I'm not sure that Vancouver fans understand just how bad a contract that is, and how it's going to financially cripple the team down the road.

Third, you can't put two goalies at once on the ice. Schneider is marginally better than Luongo, but having Luongo on the bench, as an unrealized asset, is damaging to the team versus deriving some value for him, regardless of whether you view is as "fair market value". Vancouver with these four players, and Schneider in net, is better for Vancouver than not having these four players, and having Luongo on the bench.
The only way his contract "cripples" a team is IF the new CBA states HE CAN"T RETIRE. If it does not he retires and you are clear.Or you can buy out the last 4 years for what...6million? Or you can waive him...send him to the minors. Even better, if the NHL proposal goes through, Vancouver is on the hook for his cap. There is a reason his contract is labeled a "circumvented" contract.

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10-19-2012, 12:30 PM
  #740
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Originally Posted by NYVanfan View Post
ok, ill bite
how is luongo's contract going to financially cripple the team down the road?

if spare parts is all that's offered for Luo, im comfortable with trading Schneider for a serious upgrade in the top 6
Luongo has a no movement clause, and his cap hit is 5.3million until 2022. Schneider just signed a deal for 4million until 2015.

Considering that the CBA will result in a shrunken cap, you'll now have 9 million dollars tied up in goaltending. If you're okay with that, keep Luongo, and we'll sign Edler next year. Or Kassian in a few years.

Fact is, nobody can afford in the modern NHL to have 5 million dollars just sitting on the bench. For the next 10 years.

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10-19-2012, 12:32 PM
  #741
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
The only way his contract "cripples" a team is IF the new CBA states HE CAN"T RETIRE. If it does not he retires and you are clear.Or you can buy out the last 4 years for what...6million? Or you can waive him...send him to the minors. Even better, if the NHL proposal goes through, Vancouver is on the hook for his cap. There is a reason his contract is labeled a "circumvented" contract.
Why would he retire if he's collecting 5.3 million dollars for sitting on the bench?

When you retire, you forfeit the remaining amount on any contract. Nobody would just leave millions on the table.

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10-19-2012, 12:34 PM
  #742
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Originally Posted by danfromwaterloo View Post
Luongo has a no movement clause, and his cap hit is 5.3million until 2022. Schneider just signed a deal for 4million until 2015.

Considering that the CBA will result in a shrunken cap, you'll now have 9 million dollars tied up in goaltending. If you're okay with that, keep Luongo, and we'll sign Edler next year. Or Kassian in a few years.

Fact is, nobody can afford in the modern NHL to have 5 million dollars just sitting on the bench. For the next 10 years.
Luongo doesn't have a NMC, just a NTC. Also, we don't have to move him until next year(arguably) while Burke will be pressured to make the playoffs this year. Not to mentiom there is still a decent market for an elite goaltender, and that offer would be beaten easily. Even Florida would do better than that.

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10-19-2012, 12:35 PM
  #743
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Originally Posted by danfromwaterloo View Post
Why would he retire if he's collecting 5.3 million dollars for sitting on the bench?

When you retire, you forfeit the remaining amount on any contract. Nobody would just leave millions on the table.
Ok...some advise, study the contract before using it as an arguement tool.1st, it's NMC not NTC.2nd, 5.3 is the cap hit. He makes 6.7 in salary for 5 or 6 years. Then there is a drop to 3.4 for 1 year and another drop to 1 million for the last 3. Do you think he will play for 1M? And as i stated, there are many outs after year 5.

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10-19-2012, 12:37 PM
  #744
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danfromwaterloo View Post
Given that the new CBA will undoubtedly be tighter than the existing one, and that the salary cap will likely get lowered as a result, I think Luongo's value will get even lower than it already is.

Fact is, when he's on his game, he's about a 5th or 6th on the depth chart for goalies in the league, at best (Lundqvist, Rinne, Quick, Miller, and possibly, Price). That's when he's on. He's shown recently to be, on most days, between 10th and 15th. Otherwise, why bother replacing him with an unknown quantity in Schneider, unless you're convinced Schneider is going to be better.

His cap hit is one of the biggest in the league for goaltenders. I believe he's third behind Rinne and Lundqvist. But he's also on the books for a ton more years.

So, yes, even though he's undoubtedly a really good goalie, his cap hit ruins his value.

If the Leafs trade to get Luongo, they would need to include equivalent cap dumps to offset it, then, trade value for value.

So, one of Connelly, Lombardi, or Komasarek, to start. I would also wager that Reimer would be included in that, as I think, long term, Scrivens is the better goalie for the future, to address the need of a vacancy in net in Vancouver. Next, I think you now need to offset the future commitment to an older Luongo with a draft pick from Vancouver. I would wager a 1st round pick. That way, when we're paying Luo years down the line for crappy old man goaltending, we're offsetting that with getting a younger talent who we're underpaying.

So, at this point, I think we've offset the damage to Luo's punitive contract.

Luongo + 1st = Lombardi + Reimer + current non-financial value of Luongo

So, what's a top 10 goalie worth in the league? Halak got traded for Eller + Schultz. Now, I think Luongo is a better goalie now than Halak was, but it's pretty clear from this example that goaltending doesn't tend to demand a high value in trades. Similarly, from what I could find, goalies don't get traded all that often. I recall that Felix Potvin (notably in a similar situation) got us Bryan Berard, a Calder trophy winner. While times have certainly changed, it appears that a good goalie will cost you either one can't-miss young player, or two good candidates.

The Leafs shouldn't be thinking of either Gardiner or Rielly, but more along the lines of two of Kadri, Colbourne, or Ashton.

So, I'll likely get torn down from both sides for this thought, but:

Luongo + 1st = Lombardi + Reimer + Kadri + Ashton

That seems to me to be realistic.
On what grounds do you support Pekka Rinne, Ryan Miller, and Carey Price as being better than Luongo? Hell Luongo when he's not on his game still put up better numbers than Ryan Miller, and comparable numbers as Pekka Rinne.

Luongo's cap hit is actually closer to 10th in the league than 3rd. It's also absurd to suggest he ranks as a 10-15 goalie. Wow.

Your proposal couldn't be any further off base. Absolutely absurd.

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10-19-2012, 12:39 PM
  #745
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Originally Posted by danfromwaterloo View Post
Why would he retire if he's collecting 5.3 million dollars for sitting on the bench?

When you retire, you forfeit the remaining amount on any contract. Nobody would just leave millions on the table.
People really need to read these threads before posting.

Go to capgeek, take a look at Luongo's contract...

It's not the 3rd highest cap it or close to it, it's barely top 10 right now at 9th. Also, he'll have been paid something like 90% of the value of the contract by 2017.

That could all have been avoided if you had read one of these threads.

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10-19-2012, 12:40 PM
  #746
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
On what grounds do you support Pekka Rinne, Ryan Miller, and Carey Price as being better than Luongo? Hell Luongo when he's not on his game still put up better numbers than Ryan Miller, and comparable numbers as Pekka Rinne.

Luongo's cap hit is actually closer to 10th in the league than 3rd. It's also absurd to suggest he ranks as a 10-15 goalie. Wow.

Your proposal couldn't be any further off base. Absolutely absurd.
Ok.

Then, why not keep him, if he's that good?

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10-19-2012, 12:41 PM
  #747
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It doesn't matter how happy everyone is with a situation, with the cap at 62 million, the Canucks can't carry a 10 million cap hit for one position





I think he will waive as well for another team as well. Van can keep luongo and Schneider for the upcoming season, but there isn't enough room for both in 2013
I tend to agree with you on the latter point but I think all of this is theoretical. Luongo will not hold the team hostage. I can see him blocking a trade to a team like Columbus but I think he'd be open to most other teams. He has a good relationship with Nonis and would I am sure see Toronto as a destination that would be attractive

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10-19-2012, 12:41 PM
  #748
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Originally Posted by danfromwaterloo View Post
Why would he retire if he's collecting 5.3 million dollars for sitting on the bench?

When you retire, you forfeit the remaining amount on any contract. Nobody would just leave millions on the table.
Because in no year ever is he making 5.33 million.

His paycheck drops to 3 million, and down to 1 million from the 6.75 mill he collects the next 6 years.

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10-19-2012, 12:42 PM
  #749
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Ok.

Then, why not keep him, if he's that good?
Circles within circles.

Because we have two great goaltenders, one of whom is 7 years younger.

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10-19-2012, 12:42 PM
  #750
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
On what grounds do you support Pekka Rinne, Ryan Miller, and Carey Price as being better than Luongo? Hell Luongo when he's not on his game still put up better numbers than Ryan Miller, and comparable numbers as Pekka Rinne.

Luongo's cap hit is actually closer to 10th in the league than 3rd. It's also absurd to suggest he ranks as a 10-15 goalie. Wow.

Your proposal couldn't be any further off base. Absolutely absurd.
For once (and i can't believe i'm saying this) i agree with you. BUT, it's no more absurd than thinking Bozak,Frattin, Gardiner and a 1st for Luongo is realistic.

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