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Early Oscar buzz: ar...go....name some contenders

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12-16-2012, 04:16 PM
  #351
Stu Macher
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Originally Posted by Howard Beale View Post
Looking at Gold Derby now, I see that Les Miserables has been bumped down to 4th place in the Best Picture Rankings, with Lincoln in 1st now and Zero Dark Thirty in 2nd. The most shocking change, however, is that Joaquin Phoenix has been bumped down to 6th in his category. I still haven't seen The Master, but from what I've heard it'll be a joke if he doesn't even get a nomination.
It would indeed be a joke for Phoenix to not get a nomination.

I don't see Lincoln being the favorite from what we've seen early. Zero Dark Thirty certainly seems like the best chance in my mind.

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12-16-2012, 11:59 PM
  #352
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Early days yet, but initial reviews for Les Miserables on rottentomatoes give it a 73% score currently. To put that in perspective: of the top fifteen movies that could get nominated according to Gold Derby, that score, if it holds, would place Les Miserables dead last. This baby could just fade away.
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Originally Posted by Howard Beale View Post
Looking at Gold Derby now, I see that Les Miserables has been bumped down to 4th place in the Best Picture Rankings, with Lincoln in 1st now and Zero Dark Thirty in 2nd. The most shocking change, however, is that Joaquin Phoenix has been bumped down to 6th in his category. I still haven't seen The Master, but from what I've heard it'll be a joke if he doesn't even get a nomination.
Yow...didn't see Les Miserables taking that kind of a hit. I thought it would be a heavy contender for BP. I agree with Stu, I'd throw my hat in for ZDT at the moment (without having seen it).

And yes, it will certainly be a joke if Phoenix doesn't even get a nomination...and it will confirm again what everyone has suspected of the Academy all along.

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12-17-2012, 01:12 AM
  #353
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Came back from the Hobbit. Not gonna get a best pic nom but I can see a cinematography nom and maybe special effects win. It didn't quite have the substance of Return of The King or the gravitas, but it's the nicest looking Tolkien film adaptation to date. Some really beautiful scenic shots. Even the battles looked more beautiful this time.

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12-17-2012, 11:49 AM
  #354
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Zero Dark Thirty wins awards from the Chicago Film Critics Association for picture, director, original screenplay, actress, and editing. Just another sweep of major awards for the film.

Day Lewis wins actor as usual (ugh). The Master wins for supporting actor and actress, original score, and cinematography. Amour wins foreign film. Paranorman wins animated.

The documentary The Invisible War won best documentary, which I don't agree with. I think it's inherently sad because of its subject material, but I don't think it was the best documentary I've seen this year.

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12-17-2012, 12:20 PM
  #355
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Originally Posted by Stu Macher View Post
Zero Dark Thirty wins awards from the Chicago Film Critics Association for picture, director, original screenplay, actress, and editing. Just another sweep of major awards for the film.

Day Lewis wins actor as usual (ugh). The Master wins for supporting actor and actress, original score, and cinematography. Amour wins foreign film. Paranorman wins animated.

The documentary The Invisible War won best documentary, which I don't agree with. I think it's inherently sad because of its subject material, but I don't think it was the best documentary I've seen this year.
What were your favourite docs this year? Been looking for a good one recently.

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12-17-2012, 04:32 PM
  #356
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What were your favourite docs this year? Been looking for a good one recently.
Well, I've only seen 2....

But I really, really liked The Queen of Versailles, which was so much better than I ever could have expected. There are a few more that I really want to see before the year is up.

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12-17-2012, 05:31 PM
  #357
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With the best three docs that I have seen still not in general distribution--This Is Not a Film; Stories We Tell; and Storm Surfers in 3#D--I'd say two other docs in addition to Queen of Versailles are likely Academy Award contenders so far this year: Jiro Dreams of Sushi (about a sushi chef whose tiny subway restaurant in Tokyo made the Michelin Guide) or Searching for Sugar Man (about an obscure US musician who is a demigod in South Africa).

If anyone is just looking for a good recent doc, though, 2010 and 2011 were great years for docs:

Into the Abyss (Herzog on death row)

Cave of Forgotten Dreams (Herzog in French pre-historic caves)

Pina (homage to a brilliant and influential German choreographer)

Last Train Home (about the plight of Chinese workers trying to get home for New Year's)

Exit through the Gift Shop (faux or not, a fascinating look at street art and its characters)

Restrepo (troops in a lonely outpost in Afghanistan)

Waste Land (about a conceptual artist who returns to his native Brazil to help poor people make art out of garbage)

Marwencol (about a severely beaten man who decides as a kind of self-therapy to construct a miniature World War II Belgian village in his backyard)

Alamar (Italian city boy visits his estranged dad who lives almost literally on top of one of the most beautiful reefs in the Gulf of Mexico)

The Tillman Story (an expose on the sad death of a very good man who quit a career in the NFL to serve in Afghanistan)


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12-17-2012, 05:42 PM
  #358
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If Phoenix doesn't get nominated I won't bother with the Oscars anymore.

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12-18-2012, 12:36 PM
  #359
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Damn, it that little list of docs back there, I left maybe the best one out. If you are interested in docs and you haven't seen Senna, do yourself a favour and pick it up soon. Incredibly grippiing.

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12-18-2012, 12:52 PM
  #360
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I liked Undefeated as well. Lots of great documentaries these last 2 years or so

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12-18-2012, 01:07 PM
  #361
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The Interrupters by Steve James from last year is also a fantastic documentary, one of the best I've seen.

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12-18-2012, 07:07 PM
  #362
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Originally Posted by Stu Macher View Post
Zero Dark Thirty wins awards from the Chicago Film Critics Association for picture, director, original screenplay, actress, and editing. Just another sweep of major awards for the film.
ZDT only has 2 negative reviews that I can find so far, and both are from religious critics. Yes, I understand the Christian Science Monitor claims to be secular but that's a laugh, as the main criticism leveled at ZDT by both reviews is that it's 'amoral.' We live in an amoral world, but I am not surprised that those who look to a higher power for morality have a problem with the film. It would not be getting nearly the praise it has had it taken a 'stance' and been politically preachy.

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12-21-2012, 12:17 PM
  #363
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The shortlist for the best foreign film has been announced. The 9 films are:

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Austria, "Amour," Michael Haneke, director;
Canada, "War Witch," Kim Nguyen, director;
Chile, "No," Pablo Larraín, director;
Denmark, "A Royal Affair," Nikolaj Arcel, director;
France, "The Intouchables," Olivier Nakache and Eric Toledano, directors;
Iceland, "The Deep," Baltasar Kormákur, director;
Norway, "Kon-Tiki," Joachim Rřnning and Espen Sandberg, directors;
Romania, "Beyond the Hills," Cristian Mungiu, director;
Switzerland, "Sister," Ursula Meier, director.
Amour has to be the favourite. But this is probably the most unpredictable category of all, since the Academy hasn't shied away from making surprise picks. And The Intouchables seems like one of the biggest oscar baits in years, so I would not write it off as a possible winner.

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12-21-2012, 12:29 PM
  #364
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Originally Posted by Jevo View Post
The shortlist for the best foreign film has been announced. The 9 films are:



Amour has to be the favourite. But this is probably the most unpredictable category of all, since the Academy hasn't shied away from making surprise picks. And The Intouchables seems like one of the biggest oscar baits in years, so I would not write it off as a possible winner.
I know I say this every year but I would be shocked beyond words if Amour doesn't take it.

Very surprised War Witch made it in. Even in Canada there seems to be zero buzz about that movie, and the reviews I have read don't seem to say much more than "yeah, it was all right".

Would love to find Beyond the Hills to watch. Frustrating.

I'm at least familiar with all the names except the one from Iceland. Anyone heard anything about it?

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12-21-2012, 12:37 PM
  #365
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Originally Posted by Jevo View Post
The shortlist for the best foreign film has been announced. The 9 films are:

Quote:
Austria, "Amour," Michael Haneke, director;
Canada, "War Witch," Kim Nguyen, director;
Chile, "No," Pablo Larraín, director;
Denmark, "A Royal Affair," Nikolaj Arcel, director;
France, "The Intouchables," Olivier Nakache and Eric Toledano, directors;
Iceland, "The Deep," Baltasar Kormákur, director;
Norway, "Kon-Tiki," Joachim Rřnning and Espen Sandberg, directors;
Romania, "Beyond the Hills," Cristian Mungiu, director;
Switzerland, "Sister," Ursula Meier, director.
Amour has to be the favourite. But this is probably the most unpredictable category of all, since the Academy hasn't shied away from making surprise picks. And The Intouchables seems like one of the biggest oscar baits in years, so I would not write it off as a possible winner.
Though this year it would be a huge upset if Amour doesn't win, I agree that anything is possible with the Academy in this category. And The Intouchables is almost embarrassingly Oscar bait as you state.

Another nice kudo for Canada.

I've seen eight out of nine of these films (lacking only The Deep for the complete set), with four of the candidates currently in my Top Ten, so I am very happy with this.

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12-21-2012, 02:35 PM
  #366
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I'm at least familiar with all the names except the one from Iceland. Anyone heard anything about it?
I think it is a man overboard movie, about a guy trying to survive in the ocean after his boat capsizes or sinks. The watery equivalent of a Buried premise maybe?

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12-21-2012, 02:44 PM
  #367
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I think it is a man overboard movie, about a guy trying to survive in the ocean after his boat capsizes or sinks. The watery equivalent of a Buried premise maybe?
No tiger this time around?

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12-21-2012, 02:49 PM
  #368
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No tiger this time around?
Presumably no boat this time around either.

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12-22-2012, 05:42 PM
  #369
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I'm sure Les Miserables will be heavily nominated for the Best Song category, but I must say, no song has had a more emotional impact on me than the one from Moneyball.

If you've seen the movie, here's what I'm talking about (SPOILERS)

Edit: I just realized this was released in 2011. D'oh!



Last edited by SB164: 12-22-2012 at 09:12 PM.
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12-26-2012, 03:01 PM
  #370
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Les Mis will undoubtedly get nominated. All I have to say is that I will be rooting actively against it. Hathaway has a very short role, but her showstopper number just might be enough to win her the big prize for supporting actress.

Django Unchained: doubtful it will make much of a splash at all, though Waltz and DiCaprio deserve consideration.

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12-26-2012, 03:51 PM
  #371
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Originally Posted by SB164 View Post
I'm sure Les Miserables will be heavily nominated for the Best Song category, but I must say, no song has had a more emotional impact on me than the one from Moneyball.

If you've seen the movie, here's what I'm talking about (SPOILERS)

Edit: I just realized this was released in 2011. D'oh!

not only was it last year, the song also was not eligible.

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12-26-2012, 04:00 PM
  #372
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Originally Posted by SB164 View Post
I'm sure Les Miserables will be heavily nominated for the Best Song category, but I must say, no song has had a more emotional impact on me than the one from Moneyball.

If you've seen the movie, here's what I'm talking about (SPOILERS)

Edit: I just realized this was released in 2011. D'oh!

That song is four years old. The artist's name is Lenka.

When I first heard his daughter singing the song in the guitar store, I couldn't believe the film was implying it was an original song.

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12-31-2012, 02:37 PM
  #373
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Finally got around to seeing Silver Linings Playbook. If there are 10 nominees for Best Picture I can't see this not getting one. Jennifer Lawrence was as brilliant as advertised and I think she's gonna get Best Actress. Though the real surprise for me was De Niro and Cooper. I know De Niro is a great actor but he added so much to this movie. I thought he was brilliant and Cooper played his role beautifully. I think it's Cooper's best movie to date. I'm not sure if De Niro can score a supporting actor nomination, but I think he deserves it.

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01-04-2013, 05:40 PM
  #374
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Zero Dark Thirty: definitely a serious contender, should bag a carload of nominations, including best picture, director, script, and acting. Jessica Chastain will give Jennifer Lawrence a real run for her money. It does have controversial elements, but it could hardly avoid them. So it's chances of actually winning best picture are probably less than they should be.

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01-04-2013, 08:12 PM
  #375
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I just wanted to remind everyone that Tom Hooper has an Oscar for Best Director. In other words, Tom Hooper has more Oscars than Darren Arofnofsky, Paul Thomas Anderson, and David Fincher. Tom Hooper

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