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Justin Schultz

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Old
12-19-2012, 08:27 AM
  #601
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
The AHL is not the NHL but you seem to gloss over that point.

I rarely visit team pages and have already discussed Stamkos and his level of play which is as an elite goal scorer in the NHL with a proven track record.

Until Eberle gets to the same level, and Schultz plays in the NHL, it's all hopes and dreams and realistic projections are treated as Jibberish by "informed fans with no bias" such as yourself.

and you want to talk about facts? really?
At what point did Stamkos stop being a player with an unsustainable shooting percentage, and when did he start being an elite goal scorer in the nhl with a proven track record? Is there a magic threshold where you are transformed by the statzis into a legitimate phenomenon?

I guess you didnt get the part where Eberle, a "proven" nhl scorer, was achieving a certain level of success in the ahl himself, yet that level of success has been surpassed at every step of the way by Schultz, a defenseman at that?

Carry on with the pogrom.

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12-19-2012, 09:20 AM
  #602
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
He can onetime the puck, however his skating is very good and he uses it to open up shooting lanes. His passing and decision making with the puck is also very good in the O zone. Wrist shots get off a lot quicker than slappers do and as such are often times harder to block. The kid gets pucks through at an incredible rate and he picks spots with it as well, he's not just throwing hail Mary's at the net hoping that they go in, most of his shots are labeled.
Exactly, I love that he uses the wrister so effectively from the point. I've noticed it also creates a lot of confusion for goalies and defense because they don't know if he's sniping or about to pass. I love the highlights where he looks like he's about to wrist one on net so the goalie and D commit and he just smoothly puts it over to Eberle for an easy goal.

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12-19-2012, 11:13 AM
  #603
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Sure two 115 point pace is sustainable and translates into better than last season NHL success, for Eberle.

That's a huge difference than "just better than average" that no one is promoting here.

No doubt we will be hearing about all of the over hype on all these players though and some level of realism needs to be in play here to counteract balance some of the godly projections for these players.
Well, what else are fans supposed to do? Schultz is lighting up the AHL at a record level pace and Eberle seems to be getting even better so what's the problem with projecting to the next level. Fans are excited about their players. SHOCKING
What are these godly projections that you are talking about? I didn't see anybody saying that Eberle was the next Stamkos or that Schultz will be on the level of Doughty, Pietrangelo etc. Just that hearing about these guys and their unsustainable shooting percentages as a way of lessening their accomplishments gets a little irritating to hear after a while.

All you have to do is watch the players play instead of forming opinions based on a silly stat.
Yeah, their shooting percentages are likely unsustainable but did it ever occur to you that they might get more shots and still score at the same pace despite a lower shooting percentage?
I highly doubt that Schultz keeps up this pace but it's pretty obvious that he can play very well at the pro level and that's all that really matters.
Also, i don't see any reason why Eberle can't duplicate or even improve on last seasons' numbers even if his shooting percentage goes down.


Last edited by CupofOil: 12-19-2012 at 11:22 AM.
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12-19-2012, 12:11 PM
  #604
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A fact is that Schultz has played as well or better than 3 of the games best young players this season on the same team, facing the same competition, while also being the only one of them that PK's. The kid is an elite offensive talent from the blueline, his stats say so, his on ice play says so, and his play relative to his highly touted teammates says so.

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12-19-2012, 12:59 PM
  #605
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People seem to have an issue with Edmonton players having the potential to develop into legitimate superstars. It's not like Oiler fans are pimping average prospects like Paajarvi or Hartikainen. These are legitimate blue chip prospects and players we are talking about.

To the one poster who thinks Eberle can't sustain a 115 point pace...

Yes it is high but Eberle is also a proven first line scoring winger in the NHL. It is not absurd for him to outscore everyone in the AHL. Eberle can not be put in a box when it comes to how good he can be, he will only out produce and overexcede expectations. He has been doing that his whole career.

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12-19-2012, 02:42 PM
  #606
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
A fact is that Schultz has played as well or better than 3 of the games best young players this season on the same team, facing the same competition, while also being the only one of them that PK's. The kid is an elite offensive talent from the blueline, his stats say so, his on ice play says so, and his play relative to his highly touted teammates says so.
Do those 3 "best young players" have anything to prove in the AHL? Nope, their main focus is the NHL. Does Schultz have something to prove as its his first stint in pro hockey?

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12-19-2012, 04:10 PM
  #607
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Simply put, Schultz is a dominating offensive defenceman as a rookie at the highest level of pro-hockey currently being played in North America. As a result of the lockout, the talent level is higher than usual in the AHL and Schultz is putting it all on display. I don't know if he would be a 60+ point defenceman in the NHL, but what I do know is that he is already gelling with his future NHL team mates. Oilers will make some pretty good highlight reels once the NHL resumes.

The number of games Schultz's has played at the pro-level is too low for us to assess how he will fare in the NHL. But call a spade a spade and recognize that, as a first year pro hockey player, this guy is doing something truly remarkable. I don't see the need to hate on that guy - it's like he's getting the Erik Karlsson treatment from HF without even playing a single NHL game.

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12-19-2012, 06:19 PM
  #608
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
I'm not a mathematician but all players regress to their norm to me in simple terms means that over a long period of time a player finds his consistency or value point. His college shooting % is lower than his 26 game %, he will regress back to his norm (and then further adjust lower to the increased skill level of the AHL and NHL over time).

Maybe regressing to "the norm" was the wrong term to use, it sure would be in your Stamkos case. Stamkos is an elite goal scorer and his norm is at or near the top of the league in goal scoring and this translates into around 50 goals per season (although their is some variance here). his top goal scoring status should continue to be "his norm" over a season, despite peaks and valleys within those seasons, until something major happens, like aging, injury or Marty St. Loius retiring and the new line mate being a complete step down from him.

Every player has "their norm" and over any season they will have peaks and valleys, it is the rare 82 PPG player that gets points in every game or 10 points in every 10 game segment.

If I have butchered the term "regressing to the norm" I apologize for the confusion but it's alot more understandable than the "dead puck era" ripoff from baseball tern that gets thrown around even more often. the puck, unlike the baseball, was never dead.

Clutch and Grab era would be more accurate.

I have made it pretty clear on how his long range shooting % will most likely come down for a couple of reasons in previous posts.

I also think that Schultz's norm isn't 115 points in an AHL season but given the super 3 guys with major NHL experience in Eberle, RNH and Hall, he might have a 100 point season in him but I would bet really good money against it.

The bet would be made on logic and evaluating factors, I really like Schultz as a player.
I will give you credit for recognizing something that many on these boards do not, and that is that all players eventually establish their own statistical means. Unfortunately, in using the terms like '"regression to the mean" what we normally see is the kind of twisted mathematics that leads a noted Oiler blogger to boldly state that Jordan Eberle's unsustainable sh% and crazy IPP means that his performace last year was smoke and mirrors, and that 45 points is not unlikely:

Quote:
It's all been said already by Scott, Tyler myself (Derek Zona) and others. He got pillow soft minutes, shot the lights out, his teammates shot the lights out and his IPP was crazy. If he gets tougher minutes, has regression in his shooting percentage, his on-ice shooting percentage and his IPP, he's going to drop 25-30 points. I'm not saying all of them will regress at once, but it's not unlikely either.
This sort of analysis is in my opinion a clear demonstration that the individual does not understand the tools they are using. When you look at guys like Eberle or Milan Lucic there are clear reasons why their sh% numbers do not follow typical patterns. They differ between the two players of course, but to lump them in with the typical forward is foolish.

You are correct that Stamkos has established a mean that reflects his own extraordinary skill. This is precisely the type of observation that prevents the mistake I have illustrated above. Yet in your prediction for Schultz your comment was:

Quote:
You say he will shoot 10% or better right? I'll take 7% with an occasional flirtation over 8% maybe.
The 7% number is actually quite consistent with a very average offensive defenseman. So indeed in assessing Schultz you seem to be reverting to the type of analysis that Zona used to justify his 45-50 point prediction for Eberle. The reality is that Schultz has yet to establish his mean in the NHL. So we are all guessing. But when BBo says that he could hit 10% he means that what he has seen of Schultz's game s game leads him to believe that he could well be one of the rare players that hits those lofty levels.

You yourself actually provided a fair bit of evidence for this when you mentioned Lubomir Visnovsky. There is a player who broke 11% 4 times in his career including once with the Oilers. Like Visnovsky, Schultz is not a blaster but rather is a guys who is selective in his shots, and he has demonstrated a similarly uncanny sense of when to move up or to join the rush. Schultz also relies on his wrist shot from in tight far more than almost any young dman I have seen over the last decade. Combine this with the way the Oilers run their pp and you can bet that he will have lots of chances to take advantage of this rather unique skill.

ULtimately only time will tell how good he is. But I can say that I am convinced that he is the real deal. And given that he may well have found a near perfect situation for his skill set I am very excited to see what he will do at the next level.

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12-19-2012, 08:01 PM
  #609
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
The 7% number is actually quite consistent with a very average offensive defenseman. So indeed in assessing Schultz you seem to be reverting to the type of analysis that Zona used to justify his 45-50 point prediction for Eberle. The reality is that Schultz has yet to establish his mean in the NHL. So we are all guessing. But when BBo says that he could hit 10% he means that what he has seen of Schultz's game s game leads him to believe that he could well be one of the rare players that hits those lofty levels.
Really? Of the top 30 goal scorers among defencemen last year, I counted 9 with career sh% over 7. 8 if you go by top 30 pts last year. Very few have career Sh% >=8%.

I agree that Shultz will likely have a higher % than the average off-dman, because his style of play involves a lot of jumping into the play, but 7+% for a defenceman is very good. over 8 is elite, and 10 is legendary. Bobby Orr had a career % of 9.2, Potvin 10.2, Housley 8.9, Coffey 9.0. That would be the statistical norm for generational players.

You'll see a defenceman break 10% in a given season simply because there is so much variance year to year in sh%, and because of that it is really odd to expect 10% in a given season. It's completely reasonable to say you expect him to hit once or more over his career, but to single out a season is a bit much.

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12-19-2012, 08:11 PM
  #610
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If he starts putting up numbers in the NHL, watch people downplay it because he plays with so many star forwards.

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12-19-2012, 08:22 PM
  #611
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Originally Posted by HavlatMach9 View Post
If he starts putting up numbers in the NHL, watch people downplay it because he plays with so many star forwards.
Indeed. Because apparently pretty much anyone else who puts up big numbers doesn't play with good players...

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12-19-2012, 08:34 PM
  #612
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Originally Posted by HavlatMach9 View Post
If he starts putting up numbers in the NHL, watch people downplay it because he plays with so many star forwards.
So he'll be like every other player that puts up good numbers in the NHL?

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12-19-2012, 08:56 PM
  #613
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Originally Posted by HavlatMach9 View Post
If he starts putting up numbers in the NHL, watch people downplay it because he plays with so many star forwards.
who needs to wait for him to put numbers in the NHL when putting numbers in teh AHL yields the same comments

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12-19-2012, 09:53 PM
  #614
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Well, what else are fans supposed to do? Schultz is lighting up the AHL at a record level pace and Eberle seems to be getting even better so what's the problem with projecting to the next level. Fans are excited about their players. SHOCKING
What are these godly projections that you are talking about? I didn't see anybody saying that Eberle was the next Stamkos or that Schultz will be on the level of Doughty, Pietrangelo etc. Just that hearing about these guys and their unsustainable shooting percentages as a way of lessening their accomplishments gets a little irritating to hear after a while.

All you have to do is watch the players play instead of forming opinions based on a silly stat.
Yeah, their shooting percentages are likely unsustainable but did it ever occur to you that they might get more shots and still score at the same pace despite a lower shooting percentage?
I highly doubt that Schultz keeps up this pace but it's pretty obvious that he can play very well at the pro level and that's all that really matters.
Also, i don't see any reason why Eberle can't duplicate or even improve on last seasons' numbers even if his shooting percentage goes down.
Well it has been stated that Schultz has elite offensive NHL Dman skills and can sustain 10-12% shooting % both of which are overstating it by a mile right now.

Someone eluded to Eberle's 27% shooting % high teens is sustainable but more than 35 goals will need work and growth, something which we won't see until there is an NHL season.

We already saw that Jordan can rip up the AHL at the end of the 10 season. Where his ceiling is in the NHL is still up in the air but I wouldn't count on too much improvement and a 40 goal guy is pretty darn good.

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12-19-2012, 10:19 PM
  #615
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
This sort of analysis is in my opinion a clear demonstration that the individual does not understand the tools they are using. When you look at guys like Eberle or Milan Lucic there are clear reasons why their sh% numbers do not follow typical patterns. They differ between the two players of course, but to lump them in with the typical forward is foolish.
On-ice sh% is the team sh% when he's on the ice, not his individual sh%. Even elite players rarely have an on-ice sh% more than a couple percent above the league average.

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12-20-2012, 07:03 AM
  #616
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Originally Posted by Micklebot View Post
Really? Of the top 30 goal scorers among defencemen last year, I counted 9 with career sh% over 7. 8 if you go by top 30 pts last year. Very few have career Sh% >=8%.

I agree that Shultz will likely have a higher % than the average off-dman, because his style of play involves a lot of jumping into the play, but 7+% for a defenceman is very good. over 8 is elite, and 10 is legendary. Bobby Orr had a career % of 9.2, Potvin 10.2, Housley 8.9, Coffey 9.0. That would be the statistical norm for generational players.

You'll see a defenceman break 10% in a given season simply because there is so much variance year to year in sh%, and because of that it is really odd to expect 10% in a given season. It's completely reasonable to say you expect him to hit once or more over his career, but to single out a season is a bit much.


I probably phrased my response incorrectly. I probably should have said typical offensive defensemen in the sense that even most of the big point producers have a style which is quite different from Schultz's.

Shooting percentage is a funny thing. If you look at the top producing forwards you will find that only a fraction have SH% above 13.5% in a given year. But then you have Milan Lucic sitting at 15.5% for his career and 3 years over 17%. Andrew Burnette has a career SH% at 17.6%. Alex Tanguay is at 18.56%.

The career numbers see great snipers like Bossy and Kurri near the top, but you also have a guy like Craig Simpson leading the way. And while I can appreciate Simpson's skill having watched a fair bit of him in person, I would not say that he was elite. Mark Hunter, Tom McCarthy, Yvon Lambert are all in the top group, ahead of guys like Lemieux, Jagar, Sakic, Yzerman and Gretzky. Having watched all three of these guys play I would say it is not so hard to explain why they reached such lofty numbers in this particular statistic.

Interestingly enough when I look at the list of three all time greats you give I would say that when I look at how Schultz plays the game he reminds me a lot of guys like Coffey and Housley. Being an Oiler STH during the dynasty years I'd never suggest any of these kids will be as good as the legends. But in style Schultz is remarkably similar to Coffey. And given that SH% seems to be a product of both skill and style I think his chances of putting up numbers in the 8%+ range are actually not that bad.
That said he has not yet done so at the NHL level so right now we are all just speculating.

But even so I will concede that I was probably understating the frequency of a defenseman hitting 7% and I had already stated that I thought 10% was extremely lofty. Even BBO had said that he is not arguing for a career average of 10%. The core point is that Schultz has yet to establish his own benchmark.

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12-20-2012, 07:06 AM
  #617
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Originally Posted by SmellOfVictory View Post
On-ice sh% is the team sh% when he's on the ice, not his individual sh%. Even elite players rarely have an on-ice sh% more than a couple percent above the league average.
I know what On-ice sh% means. I just don't hold much stock in the conclussions that are drawn from it.


Last edited by Fourier: 12-20-2012 at 07:14 AM.
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12-20-2012, 07:12 AM
  #618
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Well it has been stated that Schultz has elite offensive NHL Dman skills and can sustain 10-12% shooting % both of which are overstating it by a mile right now.

Someone eluded to Eberle's 27% shooting % high teens is sustainable but more than 35 goals will need work and growth, something which we won't see until there is an NHL season.

We already saw that Jordan can rip up the AHL at the end of the 10 season. Where his ceiling is in the NHL is still up in the air but I wouldn't count on too much improvement and a 40 goal guy is pretty darn good.
I don't find much to disagree with in this post other than stating that I don't think there are many Oiler fans who believe that Eberle would sustatin a 25% SH% in the NHL or that Schultz will have a career SH% in the 10-12% range.

Like sh%, goal scoring also fluctuates a fair bit which I am sure you know. Eberle will have seasons where the puck does not go in for him as virtually every talented player does. What most of us object to is the type of things we see so often from Oiler bloggers who suggest that they are able to devine some absolute truth from numbers like On ice sh% and IPP...


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12-20-2012, 10:12 AM
  #619
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People seem to have an issue with Edmonton players having the potential to develop into legitimate superstars. It's not like Oiler fans are pimping average prospects like Paajarvi or Hartikainen. These are legitimate blue chip prospects and players we are talking about.

To the one poster who thinks Eberle can't sustain a 115 point pace...

Yes it is high but Eberle is also a proven first line scoring winger in the NHL. It is not absurd for him to outscore everyone in the AHL. Eberle can not be put in a box when it comes to how good he can be, he will only out produce and overexcede expectations. He has been doing that his whole career.
you guys used to all the time though, and many others

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12-20-2012, 11:26 AM
  #620
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you guys used to all the time though, and many others
Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

The fact that highly touted Oilers prospects have underperfomed in the past has no bearing on the likely performance of 3 first overall picks and the two guys tearing up the AHL right now.

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12-20-2012, 12:57 PM
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you guys used to all the time though, and many others
I don't know what you've been reading... Nobody really ever pimped up Hartikainen until this year. People are excited for him because he's as NHL ready as any other prospect out there and he's been very good in the A this year. We don't expect him to become anything more than an adequate 2nd-3rd liner.

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12-20-2012, 02:03 PM
  #622
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I think that Schultz can shoot 10% or better numerous times in his career, I'm not saying that he'll average that over his career as that would be Orr or Coffey-esque, but I think that he can shoot 10% and that he can pot 20 goals or better in a season a number of times in his career.

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12-20-2012, 02:05 PM
  #623
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you guys used to all the time though, and many others
Hartikainen is NHL ready right now, he will be a 2nd or 3rd line NHLer for many years to come. His skating has improved this season and he is a wide body who has a very strong core. He has also improved his passing, I don't see Oilers fans pumping his tires any more than your fellow Ducks fans pumping their prospects tires.

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12-20-2012, 02:13 PM
  #624
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Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

The fact that highly touted Oilers prospects have underperfomed in the past has no bearing on the likely performance of 3 first overall picks and the two guys tearing up the AHL right now.
Wow am I ever dumb for not taking Latin in high school.

The only constant is that the same guys over hype all Oiler prospects just because they are Oilers property.

Sometimes it's better not to have a dog in the race and to try and use reason and scouting skills instead of wishing what a player might become.

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12-20-2012, 02:25 PM
  #625
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Wow am I ever dumb for not taking Latin in high school.

The only constant is that the same guys over hype all Oiler prospects just because they are Oilers property.

Sometimes it's better not to have a dog in the race and to try and use reason and scouting skills instead of wishing what a player might become.
Scouting skills? By all means tell me your credentials. Craig Button compared Schultz to Doughty (FTR I am not, Doughty is much thicker, stronger, plays more physical, has a better onetimer, etc.) but that is the caliber of player that he thought that Schultz could be. I am no scout, however when a defenseman passes the puck as well or better than a NHL forward on his team that led his team in scoring last year who also happened to have 42 assists last year, and he also has a wrist shot that rivals that same player if not exceeds it in terms of velocity while also being a superior skater, having similar vision, and reads the play in the O zone exceptionally well, I think that we have a special player on our hands. But since you are the scout and the voice of reason tell me what I should think.

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