HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > NHL Draft - Prospects
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

NHL Draft - Prospects Discuss hockey prospects from all over the world and the NHL Draft.

Combining Scouting Reports With On-Ice Production

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
09-03-2014, 05:08 PM
  #1
R S
.
 
R S's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 25,442
vCash: 1000
Combining Scouting Reports With On-Ice Production

I've been working on coming up with my own formula that will combine information from a player's scouting report and the player's on-ice production. Ideally the information is compiled and generated to provide a ranking player-by-player and team-by-team for use by that team's hockey operations department.

I've posted my early findings on my blog.

Part 1 really discusses the general ideas behind the concept.

Quote:
As hockey fans know, it’s been a big summer for analytics. While some NHL teams have been using advanced stats behind closed doors for years, the scene was given greater exposure this off-season thanks to organizations plucking various bloggers from the internet and moving them into front offices around the league.

For the past 18 months or so I’ve taken an interest in the topic, looking to learn as much as I could in an effort to see the game from an another angle and expand my knowledge base.

Over that time one thing has become very clear to me. Statistics are a great tool to have, but they are not the perfect solution. The game of hockey is simply too fast, too random and too complex when compared to baseball, for example, to really be able to put too much stock purely into statistics (at least for the time being).

With that in mind, it occurred to me that it would be ideal to come up with a metric to combine the statistical side of the game with the scouting part of the game. This would end up being a number that would roll a player’s skillset and in-game production into one comfortable package. If done thoroughly across the board, it can give you a ranking player-by-player and team-by-team to show you which players are the best combinations of production and style of play.
http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/20...and-stats.html

Part 2 looks back at the 2014 NHL Draft while using my new stats/scouting report formula.

http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/20...s-20-2014.html

Part 3 involves combining statistical draft rankings with "eye-test" draft rankings to try and find that perfect hybrid ranking.

http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/20...0-perfect.html

Part 4 re-ranks the WHL forwards from the 2013 NHL Draft.

http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/20...-stats-40.html

Part 5 re-ranks the WHL defencemen from the 2013 NHL Draft.

http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/20...-stats-50.html

Part 6
investigates the results from 2012.

http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/20...p-re-rank.html

----------------

I have had this stuff out on Twitter for a week or so and also in the numbers area on here, but would love to get more feedback. For me, this combination is a great way to add more depth to the art of scouting hockey. With the way numbers and advanced stats are exploding in the game, I want to try and help take things in a new direction using some like-minded data.

Feel free to comment or critique!


Last edited by R S: 12-11-2014 at 01:42 PM.
R S is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-04-2014, 12:34 AM
  #2
Anthony Mauro
DraftBuzz Hockey
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 6,830
vCash: 500
Hats off to exploring this. It is worthwhile and while it may take time to get down, it will be a huge tool if it pans out accurately.

I had done this for the 2014 class as the draft year was unfolding. I went 50/50 with skills and production. I used scouted traits on a tiered percentage based on how I scout and then built a system for quantifying production based on elite to role player contribution.

I ultimately pulled this information and scrapped it for the year as I didn't quite have the numbers match the scouting report, their production, and my overall instincts on their future projection in time. It wouldn't work if I had a #2 overall player rank #5 in the combined score.

Thoughts:

1) Making the NR rating at the end of the season. Early on, you would have seen Brendan Perlini rated as the top prospect in the draft when he was on a tear. I don't mind rewarding excellent production with an increase in player value, but it has to hold up over the year.

2) I may be misinterpreting things, but doesn't including the hybrid rank show weakness RE your NR rank? You're devaluing the NR rank by needing to form a hybrid rank that essentially is already using the scouting principles developed in the PR rank. (You basically ran into the same problem it seems )

3) Not saying this is the case, but if you are going to use this...make it less about turning things specifically into objective data, and more about getting a well rounded picture on a player. At the end of the day, a skills assessment turned into numbers is still going to make your final score subjective to a degree. That wore on me.

4) GP influences a good portion of the data. You get to see who in fact was able to contribute, but if a good player gets hurt, his ranking will suffer. The soft intelligence and understanding of the why is still necessary and may even call for a pro-rated score if you are using it to project for the draft.

Anthony Mauro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-04-2014, 04:46 PM
  #3
R S
.
 
R S's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 25,442
vCash: 1000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony Mauro View Post
Hats off to exploring this. It is worthwhile and while it may take time to get down, it will be a huge tool if it pans out accurately.

I had done this for the 2014 class as the draft year was unfolding. I went 50/50 with skills and production. I used scouted traits on a tiered percentage based on how I scout and then built a system for quantifying production based on elite to role player contribution.

I ultimately pulled this information and scrapped it for the year as I didn't quite have the numbers match the scouting report, their production, and my overall instincts on their future projection in time. It wouldn't work if I had a #2 overall player rank #5 in the combined score.

Thoughts:

1) Making the NR rating at the end of the season. Early on, you would have seen Brendan Perlini rated as the top prospect in the draft when he was on a tear. I don't mind rewarding excellent production with an increase in player value, but it has to hold up over the year.

2) I may be misinterpreting things, but doesn't including the hybrid rank show weakness RE your NR rank? You're devaluing the NR rank by needing to form a hybrid rank that essentially is already using the scouting principles developed in the PR rank. (You basically ran into the same problem it seems )

3) Not saying this is the case, but if you are going to use this...make it less about turning things specifically into objective data, and more about getting a well rounded picture on a player. At the end of the day, a skills assessment turned into numbers is still going to make your final score subjective to a degree. That wore on me.

4) GP influences a good portion of the data. You get to see who in fact was able to contribute, but if a good player gets hurt, his ranking will suffer. The soft intelligence and understanding of the why is still necessary and may even call for a pro-rated score if you are using it to project for the draft.
Thanks for the feedback, some interesting tidbits. I really haven't got a ton of feedback on it so thanks for taking the time.

R S is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-08-2014, 10:09 AM
  #4
R S
.
 
R S's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 25,442
vCash: 1000
Bumped with a new piece which goes back to analyze the 2013 NHL Draft. It seems to be a decent indicator when it comes to "value" when relating my Hybrid Ranking against the actual NHL Draft.

Quote:
After working to develop a system to grade players based on a combination of scouting reports and statistical output, I’ve been attempting to try and double-check the system using some of my old scouting reports.

In my last piece I looked back at the 2014 NHL Draft and introduced the idea of a Hybrid Ranking. While that data brought up some interesting notes, it was hard to really dig too much into it because that draft is still so recent, having just happened this past summer.

With that in mind, I decided to go back and do some digging into the 2013 and 2012 NHL Drafts. Looking back at these draft years should give me a bit more of a window to see how some of those players in question have developed since their big draft day.

I decided to start with looking back at the WHL forwards from 2013.
Quote:
- Despite neither of them being the first WHL forward drafted in 2013, Hunter Shinkaruk and Nic Petan do battle here for top spot on this list with only a half point separating them in their hybrid ranking. I was a big supporter of both of them pre-draft and thought both the Canucks and Jets got immense value in the selection of each player. Curtis Lazar was my highest rated WHL forward heading into the draft that year and he hasn’t done much for me to question that, so having him 3rd on this list for the Hybrid Ranking will make for some interesting critiquing in 5 or so years down the line.

- Columbus Blue Jackets prospect Oliver Bjorkstrand appears to offer some fantastic value on this system when looking back, being rated as 4th on this list while actually being the 6th WHL forward drafted. Since draft day, he’s done nothing but grow as a player and continue to impress. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ended up being a top 2 or 3 guy out of this WHL draft class when fast-fowarding several years down the road.

- There is a noted drop-off in quality of prospect between Morgan Klimchuk and Myles Bell according to this list with 2.5 data points separating their Hybrid Ranking. In my mind, that’s a pretty accurate assessment that shows there was basically an elite 5 group of WHL forwards in the 2013 NHL Draft.

- Similar to Bjorkstrand, this list seems to hint that Edmonton Oilers prospect Greg Chase offers immense value as a 7th round selection. I had him as my 6th best WHL forward for the draft, while he actually was the 12th one off the list. And while that tells me I had already thought there was great value with that pick by Edmonton, this type of a system seems to validate it with him having the 7th best Hybrid Ranking among WHL forwards. And while he nearly doubled all of his offensive categories this past season when compared to his draft year, it’s obviously still too early to say this model is fully accurate, even if he is clearly trending in the right direction. I have enough sense to know that he’s still a junior player and hasn’t validated anything yet as a pro. But, it's still interesting to see him doing so well after sliding in the draft a bit.

http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/20...-stats-40.html

R S is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
10-10-2014, 12:47 PM
  #5
R S
.
 
R S's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 25,442
vCash: 1000
It has been a while since I added a new piece. But I put one up today in regards to how things look if I re-ranked the 2013 NHL Draft using on-ice production data mixed with scouting reports.

Quote:
In my last piece I looked back at the WHL forwards from the 2013 NHL Draft and re-ranked them using my new formula, including my new “Hybrid Ranking” idea. It brought about some interesting observations, including the idea that guys like Nic Petan and Greg Chase offered amazing value in 2013. You can read more about that here.

I did a similar thing for the 2014 NHL Draft, although it’s harder to truly gauge that one yet because that draft was only this past summer. You can check that piece out here.

With that in mind, I decided to again dig back into the 2013 NHL Draft. While the group of WHL forwards in that draft was pretty solid, the blueline seemed to be a step above. The WHL defender group seemed to have better top-end talent and better depth. This recent digging seems to confirm that, based on how the players have developed since.
Quote:
- The first main observation is just how good Seth Jones was compared to the rest the WHL class on the blueline. His Player Rating was the highest of any 2013 defenceman from the WHL, not surprisingly, while his NR soared 5 points higher than any other D. The only defender to come close to his NR mark from the past two NHL Draft’s was Julius Honka with an 82.

- There exists a clear indication here that there was a “top 3” in 2013 for WHL blueliners based on this ranking. Interesting to note that inside that battle, Morrissey was picked ahead of Pulock, despite Pulock sitting second on both my Actual Draft Rank and my NR Ranking list. Either way, both are top end prospects who should make decent NHL impacts next season. Mirco Mueller is a guy who will be the 2nd WHL defender from 2013 to jump to the NHL, although this list is about future top-end potential, not who plays first. Either way it’s worth noting that he’s well on his way to being an NHL player already.
The rest --> http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/20...-stats-50.html

R S is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
12-11-2014, 01:43 PM
  #6
R S
.
 
R S's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 25,442
vCash: 1000
I haven't updated this thread in a while, but I posted a new piece on this topic this week. It's the 6th part of the series, with all the links to pieces posted above.

Quote:
It’s been nearly two months since I wrote and published something on this topic but I wanted to get back to it before the New Year and finish off the thought process which originally began for me back in August.

Late in the summer I toyed with the idea of combining scouting report data and on-ice production numbers into one hybrid number as a form of rating system, named the CNRS.

The idea for the rating system originally was to be a form of depth chart for junior hockey teams, reflecting usage, skillset and production of individual players. Since that original thought I have also expanded on the idea, using it to help form draft rankings, double-checking its quality against the 2013 and 2014 NHL Drafts via my past scouting reports on WHL prospects. Today I close out the thought by going way back and both analyzing and re-ranking the 2012 NHL Draft.

This is the 6th part in this series and you can find the other pieces below:

1. The Origin – Combining Scouting Reports And Offensive Production

2. A Review Of The 2014 NHL Draft

3. Finding The “Perfect List”

4. Re-ranking The Forwards Of The 2013 NHL Draft

5. Re-ranking The Defenceman Of The 2013 NHL Draft

I will first begin by looking at the WHL forwards selected in the 2012 NHL Draft. This was not an overly strong draft class for the league at the time and that remains the case to this day. None of these forwards have been consistent NHL players, with only a handful of them seeing spot duty here and there. That’s worth keeping in mind, for reasons I will point out later.


In case you aren’t overly familiar with what this first chart below shows, here is a very brief primer if you opted not to browse the above-listed pieces in this series:

I’ve sorted the 2012 NHL Draft forwards based on their “Hybrid Ranking”. The Hybrid Ranking is a combination of my own personal “final draft ranking” and their NR ranking. As a further refresher, the NR is a final score based on my formula which combines my own personal scouting report data for the player (PR) and their on-ice statistical output (SR). If that information doesn't make sense, I highly recommend browsing the previous pieces.

Either way, here is a re-ranking of the 2012 NHL Draft (for WHL forwards) when combining scouting report data with actual on-ice production in the way of scoring.
Full piece ==> http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/20...p-re-rank.html

R S is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
12-14-2014, 09:02 PM
  #7
sbtatter
Registered User
 
sbtatter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 2,307
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by R S View Post
I haven't updated this thread in a while, but I posted a new piece on this topic this week. It's the 6th part of the series, with all the links to pieces posted above.



Full piece ==> http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/20...p-re-rank.html
I just read part six on the 2012 draft. Excellent piece again. Just a note, tyrell seaman suffered career ending concussions, unfortunate

sbtatter is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:01 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2016, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2016 All Rights Reserved.