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*OFFICIAL* Windsor Spitfires 2012-13 Season Thread (Part 5)

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Old
11-08-2012, 04:50 PM
  #276
RayzorIsDull
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Originally Posted by OHLTG View Post
Take away the three horrible TEAM effort games and what do you have? You make it sound like Pavelka was at fault for those blow-outs, which I don't understand. Kuhnhackl also had less than 1 point-per-game with Niagara, so he wasn't as effective as you'd think. Maybe you need to come to a game and see Pavelka in person because it sounds like he's done you wrong in the past. The kid could have a goal against in 40 shots and you'd blame him for not having a shut-out.
Why do you keep saying take away three horrible team effort games? You can't just do that and if you wanted to why don't you take away his 3 best games because the team played better in front of him? Imagine if every goalie in the league you took away his 3 worst performances I bet you they would all look different. Fact is his teammates have to own those performances as does Pavelka.

In 10/11 only 12 players in the whole OHL had more goals than Kuhnhackl. So you take the top 2 lines of 20 teams in the OHL which would be 120 forwards, only 12 of those 120 scored more than Kuhnhackl. There are 20-25 starting goalies in the league if you include sharing goaltending duties and Pavelka stands in the bottom 50%. This has nothing to do with Pavelka doing something to me I just haven't seen signs that he's some top tier goalie in the league and I think he's average.

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11-08-2012, 05:02 PM
  #277
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You should say former 40 goal scorer as he only scored 7 goals in 30 games,and had only 11 pts in 20 playoff games,had he scored at a 40 goal then maybe Niagara would have beat London
I think Pavelka,3 2nd rd picks,and 1st rd Euro pick has turned just fine when u consider what return Niagara got in Kuhnhackl
The facts as it pertains to Kuhnhackl are undenieable
I am speaking of how you value that asset you dealt he was a 39 goal guy and as I told OHLTG only 12 players scored more goals than him. This has nothing to do with hating Pavelka I just put him in the lower tier of goalies during the Rychel regime. Engelage, Neuvirth(for as long as he played in Windsor), Grubauer, Passingham, Campbell are all ahead of Pavelka imo either for their performance during the regular season or what they did in the playoffs. Do you believe Pavelka can help Windsor win a couple rounds in the playoffs?

I think it's far easier to find a league average goaltender than it is to find a 39 goal guy. I bet if you took a goalie like Palazzesse, Patterson (London), Barrick, Hope, Giugovaz would all put up similar numbers to Pavelka if not better.

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11-08-2012, 05:21 PM
  #278
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Originally Posted by RayzorIsDull View Post
I am speaking of how you value that asset you dealt he was a 39 goal guy and as I told OHLTG only 12 players scored more goals than him. This has nothing to do with hating Pavelka I just put him in the lower tier of goalies during the Rychel regime. Engelage, Neuvirth(for as long as he played in Windsor), Grubauer, Passingham, Campbell are all ahead of Pavelka imo either for their performance during the regular season or what they did in the playoffs. Do you believe Pavelka can help Windsor win a couple rounds in the playoffs?

I think it's far easier to find a league average goaltender than it is to find a 39 goal guy. I bet if you took a goalie like Palazzesse, Patterson (London), Barrick, Hope, Giugovaz would all put up similar numbers to Pavelka if not better.
I agree with the 1st 2 goalies u mentioned Patterson and Palazeese,not the other 3
I do think Pavelka was a throw in as part of the Kuhnhackl deal,NF needed to dump an Euro,it was the 3 2nd rd picks and 1st rd euro pick that were the main pieces of the return
Already paying dividends with Sanvido,think he has a bright future
To me Pavelka has been a bonus for a throw in and of late has been fantastic at home,on the road he has not been the reason for struggles,its been a total team effort
Going forward its not the goaltending I worry about,its team scoring especially the road,team defence especially on the road
Should be interesting

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11-08-2012, 06:36 PM
  #279
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Originally Posted by RayzorIsDull View Post
Why do you keep saying take away three horrible team effort games? You can't just do that and if you wanted to why don't you take away his 3 best games because the team played better in front of him? Imagine if every goalie in the league you took away his 3 worst performances I bet you they would all look different. Fact is his teammates have to own those performances as does Pavelka.

In 10/11 only 12 players in the whole OHL had more goals than Kuhnhackl. So you take the top 2 lines of 20 teams in the OHL which would be 120 forwards, only 12 of those 120 scored more than Kuhnhackl. There are 20-25 starting goalies in the league if you include sharing goaltending duties and Pavelka stands in the bottom 50%. This has nothing to do with Pavelka doing something to me I just haven't seen signs that he's some top tier goalie in the league and I think he's average.
When a team plays horrible in front of a goaltender, I believe his stats are skewed. You could have had Malcolm Subban in net that night and London would have scored six or seven. Thus, saying Pavelka is 14th or something amongst goaltenders, making the Kuhnhackl deal a "horrible" one isn't fair to Pavelka. The kid is far more talented than you make him out to be. You're right, though, in the fact that it can go the other way. Certain goaltenders we've had in the past were probably weaker than their stats suggested because of the defence in front of them. I'm not about to call them legendary, though, or whatever the opposite of "horrible" is. You may want to watch more games because a lot of people, both at the arena and in the media, seem to believe he's doing pretty well...especially after being a virtual throw-in.

You mention several Spitfires goaltenders. Engelage and Passingham were not ahead of Pavelka on the charts, from what I've seen. I like both goaltenders, but the team in front of them helped.

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11-08-2012, 06:49 PM
  #280
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Passingham better than Pavelka?

That's about as far a stretch as one can get.

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11-08-2012, 07:18 PM
  #281
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Passingham better than Pavelka?

That's about as far a stretch as one can get.
I am more referring to 10/11 Passingham when he had

Ellis
MacIntyre
Ebert
Trojanovic
Posa
Duininck

in front of him. I think Pavelka has more talent in front of him now than Passingham did at that time. You have an OA Posa, 3rd year D Ebert, Sieloff, Sanvido, Devlin, Bateman/McNaughton. That was a real bad D in front of Passingham that year.

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11-08-2012, 07:39 PM
  #282
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Originally Posted by RayzorIsDull View Post
I am more referring to 10/11 Passingham when he had

Ellis
MacIntyre
Ebert
Trojanovic
Posa
Duininck

in front of him. I think Pavelka has more talent in front of him now than Passingham did at that time. You have an OA Posa, 3rd year D Ebert, Sieloff, Sanvido, Devlin, Bateman/McNaughton. That was a real bad D in front of Passingham that year.
Although that year they dealt Trojanovic to Peter for Robertson and finished in the final 4
In fact as u recall Passingham was dealt to sarnia for a year younger Cullen

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11-08-2012, 08:48 PM
  #283
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On most nights Engelage was pathetic, and couldn't stop a beach ball...I mean if he let in 6 goals the spits would get 7 that's just how talanted that squad was, passingham was very up and down, he was either good or just brutal, both Enge and Pass had there good games but if they had a less talanted team like the one we've got right now there numbers would be worse. Pavelka sure he's had 3 or 4 bad games but for the most part the Kid has been great for us and HE HAS won us a couple a games, he makes saves that pass and enge couldn't, saves where your just left saying wow...the win against London last week for example the spits had no business being in that game going into the third the shots were heavy in favour of the knights and Pav literally took away 2 or 3 sure goals. If your trying to say Pav hasn't kept us in the majority of the games your literally nuts, sometimes numbers don't equal play, and that's the case when it comes to Pav...if you have season tickets( like me ) and watch every game you should see...he's are starter and he should be for this season i mean there really is no reason for him not to be, just because he's no Malcolm Subban or a Jordon Binnington does not mean he's not still a really good goaltender, this team isn't very strong and very inconsistent and goltending Has been consistant for the most part and it's been reliable, you can't ask your goaltender to steal every game he just has to be good and has to keep the team in it and Pavelka has done that.

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11-08-2012, 09:00 PM
  #284
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Originally Posted by hockeylegend11 View Post
Although that year they dealt Trojanovic to Peter for Robertson and finished in the final 4
In fact as u recall Passingham was dealt to sarnia for a year younger Cullen
Right Trojanovic and Passingham were dealt on the same day or within a day of one another. I guess it boils down to how a defense should perform in front of a goalie and how they actually do. If you recall at the beginning of the year Boughner said he would lean on his D and he thought it was one of the best in the league not sure if that was coach speak or if he really thought that, it certainly hasn't turned out that way.

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11-08-2012, 09:10 PM
  #285
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koko was hit in the head with a puck tonight and taken to hospital

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11-08-2012, 09:16 PM
  #286
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Originally Posted by Spitsfan67 View Post
On most nights Engelage was pathetic, and couldn't stop a beach ball...I mean if he let in 6 goals the spits would get 7 that's just how talanted that squad was, passingham was very up and down, he was either good or just brutal, both Enge and Pass had there good games but if they had a less talanted team like the one we've got right now there numbers would be worse. Pavelka sure he's had 3 or 4 bad games but for the most part the Kid has been great for us and HE HAS won us a couple a games, he makes saves that pass and enge couldn't, saves where your just left saying wow...the win against London last week for example the spits had no business being in that game going into the third the shots were heavy in favour of the knights and Pav literally took away 2 or 3 sure goals. If your trying to say Pav hasn't kept us in the majority of the games your literally nuts, sometimes numbers don't equal play, and that's the case when it comes to Pav...if you have season tickets( like me ) and watch every game you should see...he's are starter and he should be for this season i mean there really is no reason for him not to be, just because he's no Malcolm Subban or a Jordon Binnington does not mean he's not still a really good goaltender, this team isn't very strong and very inconsistent and goltending Has been consistant for the most part and it's been reliable, you can't ask your goaltender to steal every game he just has to be good and has to keep the team in it and Pavelka has done that.
I think a lot of what you say is hyperbole "on most nights he couldn't stop a beach ball" he was pathetic? I doubt that's the case since he had gaa under 2.50 and had a sv% over .910. If he couldn't stop a beach ball he wouldn't have been the horse all year long.

Nowhere did I say Pav hasn't kept the Spits in game whatever is the case whether you don't want to count those 3 bad games or just not include the games he lost and only count his wins which seems to be what people want to lean to. I don't think Pavelka is bad I just think he's average. I guess we will know more later on, if Pavelka has this team playing into late April I will gladly eat crow, I just get the idea there's a good chance the year will end in late March.

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11-08-2012, 09:38 PM
  #287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RayzorIsDull View Post
I think a lot of what you say is hyperbole "on most nights he couldn't stop a beach ball" he was pathetic? I doubt that's the case since he had gaa under 2.50 and had a sv% over .910. If he couldn't stop a beach ball he wouldn't have been the horse all year long.

Nowhere did I say Pav hasn't kept the Spits in game whatever is the case whether you don't want to count those 3 bad games or just not include the games he lost and only count his wins which seems to be what people want to lean to. I don't think Pavelka is bad I just think he's average. I guess we will know more later on, if Pavelka has this team playing into late April I will gladly eat crow, I just get the idea there's a good chance the year will end in late March.
I don't think that anyone is saying only count Pavelka's wins, but those 3 big losses seem to be outliers in his performance and in statistics outliers are typically omitted because they skew results. Having said that you need a bigger sample size of games to know whether those games truly are outliers or what you can expect from him every few games. Also, you seem to completely discount the team's performance in those games, which was horse s**t; I don't completely disagree with you that Pav should held responsible for his bad games, but it's tough to say it's his fault when he has little chance on most of those goals.

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11-08-2012, 09:57 PM
  #288
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Originally Posted by RayzorIsDull View Post
Right Trojanovic and Passingham were dealt on the same day or within a day of one another. I guess it boils down to how a defense should perform in front of a goalie and how they actually do. If you recall at the beginning of the year Boughner said he would lean on his D and he thought it was one of the best in the league not sure if that was coach speak or if he really thought that, it certainly hasn't turned out that way.
I feel defence is a team thing as opposed to just the 3 pairs of D-men dressed
For the most part the Spits are a different team at home and on the road,as evidenced by only giving up 14 goals in the last 6 home games and not losing in regulation during those 6 games
On the road far different story trouble scoring and defending
Spits are 5-4-2 in the last 11 and all 4 were on the road, scoring only 4 goals in those losses and allowing 19
It will interesting in the weeks leading to the xmas break

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11-08-2012, 10:06 PM
  #289
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I don't think Pavelka is bad I just think he's average.
You said it was a "horrible" trade, which implies you believe he's below average at best (especially when you showed stats that back that up).

What Raisy said.

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11-08-2012, 10:40 PM
  #290
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Originally Posted by OHLTG View Post
You said it was a "horrible" trade, which implies you believe he's below average at best (especially when you showed stats that back that up).

What Raisy said.
Believing Pavelka is average and thinking it is a horrible trade are not mutually exclusive. Like I said it was a horrible trade because I don't think they valued the asset of Kuhnhackl properly a 39 goal man the prior year. Spits only had 3 guys over 20 goals (Rychel 40, Khokhlachev 25, Vail 22). Goal scoring was a sore spot last year no doubt in part due to the fact they dealt Kuhnhackl. Kuhnhackl would not have been back this year but goal scoring is still a sore spot this year. I showed the stats of Pavelka to show he was a league average goalie and the point remains it's much easier to find a league average goalie than to find a 39 goal man.

Let me pose it to you in a scenario like this. If the Sarnia Sting decide that they can't do much this year and decide to trade Galchenyuk and JP Anderson and in return for Galchenyuk the Sting get only draft picks and a league average goalie (a goalie like Pavelka), for JP Anderson all they get in return are picks. What would you say about that move? I can bet at least some here would rip Beaulieu and say all he did was get draft picks and nothing in return not a good move.

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11-08-2012, 10:48 PM
  #291
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Originally Posted by Raisy View Post
I don't think that anyone is saying only count Pavelka's wins, but those 3 big losses seem to be outliers in his performance and in statistics outliers are typically omitted because they skew results. Having said that you need a bigger sample size of games to know whether those games truly are outliers or what you can expect from him every few games. Also, you seem to completely discount the team's performance in those games, which was horse s**t; I don't completely disagree with you that Pav should held responsible for his bad games, but it's tough to say it's his fault when he has little chance on most of those goals.
I am mainly looking at Pavelka through last year and this year and I think what you see is what you get. You will get some games where he keeps them in it, others where he isn't good and others where he's good. I don't discount the teams performance in front of him I am of the belief that you win as a team and you lose as a team. I know you aren't doing this but someone else is here you just absolve the goalie of all blame if he gets shelled and the team didn't get him any goals. If a starting pitcher gives up 6 earned runs in 3 innings and the team loses 7-2, do you give the pitcher a free pass because the team didn't get him any run support or do you just say the team played bad as a whole couldn't pitch and couldn't hit? I prefer the latter rather than the former.

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11-08-2012, 11:31 PM
  #292
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Originally Posted by RayzorIsDull View Post
Believing Pavelka is average and thinking it is a horrible trade are not mutually exclusive. Like I said it was a horrible trade because I don't think they valued the asset of Kuhnhackl properly a 39 goal man the prior year. Spits only had 3 guys over 20 goals (Rychel 40, Khokhlachev 25, Vail 22). Goal scoring was a sore spot last year no doubt in part due to the fact they dealt Kuhnhackl. Kuhnhackl would not have been back this year but goal scoring is still a sore spot this year. I showed the stats of Pavelka to show he was a league average goalie and the point remains it's much easier to find a league average goalie than to find a 39 goal man.

Let me pose it to you in a scenario like this. If the Sarnia Sting decide that they can't do much this year and decide to trade Galchenyuk and JP Anderson and in return for Galchenyuk the Sting get only draft picks and a league average goalie (a goalie like Pavelka), for JP Anderson all they get in return are picks. What would you say about that move? I can bet at least some here would rip Beaulieu and say all he did was get draft picks and nothing in return not a good move.
We don't know what Kuhnhackl's value was to the rest of the league, though. For all we know, a handful of picks and a "throw-in" goaltender may have been the best offer for the long-term productivity of the Spitfires. The fact that Kuhnhackl was an import probably didn't help matters, either, as the number of teams with import openings is slim.

While it's easier for find a "league average" goaltender than a 39-goal scorer, Pavelka is not a "league average" goaltender, despite what the stats say.

As for the trade scenario - all depends on what the picks are and who the player is. If you can get a handful of seconds for a guy like Galchenyuk, who's gone after this season, I'd take it and run. Build for the future. Same with JP Anderson, given he's an OA goaltender. You'll probably get 2-3 picks for him, just like you got for Campbell, but on a far lesser scale.

Quote:
If a starting pitcher gives up 6 earned runs in 3 innings and the team loses 7-2, do you give the pitcher a free pass because the team didn't get him any run support or do you just say the team played bad as a whole couldn't pitch and couldn't hit? I prefer the latter rather than the former.
Completely depends on how the runs were given up.

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11-09-2012, 07:35 AM
  #293
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Originally Posted by RayzorIsDull View Post
Believing Pavelka is average and thinking it is a horrible trade are not mutually exclusive. Like I said it was a horrible trade because I don't think they valued the asset of Kuhnhackl properly a 39 goal man the prior year. Spits only had 3 guys over 20 goals (Rychel 40, Khokhlachev 25, Vail 22). Goal scoring was a sore spot last year no doubt in part due to the fact they dealt Kuhnhackl. Kuhnhackl would not have been back this year but goal scoring is still a sore spot this year. I showed the stats of Pavelka to show he was a league average goalie and the point remains it's much easier to find a league average goalie than to find a 39 goal man.

Let me pose it to you in a scenario like this. If the Sarnia Sting decide that they can't do much this year and decide to trade Galchenyuk and JP Anderson and in return for Galchenyuk the Sting get only draft picks and a league average goalie (a goalie like Pavelka), for JP Anderson all they get in return are picks. What would you say about that move? I can bet at least some here would rip Beaulieu and say all he did was get draft picks and nothing in return not a good move.
Sometimes stats dont show the value of a player especially in goal,former goalie chris osgood a perfect example of one who had great numbers on a great team but average to poor on the other teams he played for,dont think he won a cup anywhere else
My view is that Osgood was a good goalie that had great stats,does he deserve to go into the hall
I think with Pavelka his value cant be understated,this season he has been far more consistent unlike many of his teamates,I cant recall a game where he has cost the team a game,he is 8-5-0-2 on the season,his GA is a full 2 goals better then the 7 games he played last yr at NF where he averaged 5.37,a team that was better def then Windsor
I like his game far more then last year,Windsor at even strength has been pretty good save for the bad games,afterall they have allowed 22 ppg in 19 games,with the low scoring team its a miracle the Spits are above 500,allowing that many ppg
As for suggestion re Galchenyuk I agree with OHL guy the fact Gally is not an import easier to deal,also considering he is 18 I would expect prospects and picks as it pertains to him
As for Anderson,an O/A picks might be all u will get,his save percentage is only .004 better then Pavelka,has faced fewer shots,team has allowed fewer ppg goals,not sure what he would fetch,has never won the big game
In the Kuhnhackl deak I would like to have gotten a player,however as it turned out I think the return has been good
Pavelka,a young promising Sanvido,2 more 2nd rders and 1st euro pick for a guy who scored 13 goals in 50 games,despite his ability says Windsor did not get fleeced in the deal and time will prove did better then what we all hoped

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11-09-2012, 09:39 AM
  #294
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Here's another goalie with pretty avg. stats. He went on to a pretty successful career. My point is that stats don't tell the whole picture.

1995-96 Val d'Or Foreurs QMJHL 23 1 0 1199 74 0 0 3.70 6 11 4 534 0.878
1996-97 Val d'Or Foreurs QMJHL 60 0 4 3305 171 0 2 3.10 32 21 2 1571 0.902
1997-98 Val d'Or Foreurs QMJHL 54 2 2 3046 157 0 7 3.09 27 20 5 1390 0.899
1998-99 Acadie-Bathurst Titan QMJHL 22 8 2 1342 74 2 0 3.31 14 7 1 690 0.903

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11-09-2012, 12:03 PM
  #295
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How has Ebert been so far this season? I see someone gave him a C+ grade, does that about about right? Has he improved from last season?

Thanks

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11-09-2012, 12:27 PM
  #296
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I think he's improved since last year. He hasn't turned into the elite defender we thought he would, but he's steadying himself; playing respectable defence, getting some pucks on net, and just playing a game that doesn't make the fans go "EBERT!!"

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11-09-2012, 03:19 PM
  #297
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RayzorIsDull View Post
Believing Pavelka is average and thinking it is a horrible trade are not mutually exclusive. Like I said it was a horrible trade because I don't think they valued the asset of Kuhnhackl properly a 39 goal man the prior year. Spits only had 3 guys over 20 goals (Rychel 40, Khokhlachev 25, Vail 22). Goal scoring was a sore spot last year no doubt in part due to the fact they dealt Kuhnhackl. Kuhnhackl would not have been back this year but goal scoring is still a sore spot this year. I showed the stats of Pavelka to show he was a league average goalie and the point remains it's much easier to find a league average goalie than to find a 39 goal man.

Let me pose it to you in a scenario like this. If the Sarnia Sting decide that they can't do much this year and decide to trade Galchenyuk and JP Anderson and in return for Galchenyuk the Sting get only draft picks and a league average goalie (a goalie like Pavelka), for JP Anderson all they get in return are picks. What would you say about that move? I can bet at least some here would rip Beaulieu and say all he did was get draft picks and nothing in return not a good move.
2012/13 bag of pucks > 2012/13 Kuhnhackl
2013/14 skate laces > 2013/14 Galchenyuk / Anderson

Pucks and laces will contribute more to the teams then the players after they have graduated.

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11-09-2012, 09:47 PM
  #298
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Plymouth 5 Windsor 3

- Pavelka stood on his head. If not for him, you'd be easily looking at a 10-3 game. This is a perfect example of a team that struggled in front of him and, despite five goals against, he deserved a star.

- Way, way too many penalties early on. You can't hand them the game and not expect them to take it.

- Tough defensive game for Windsor. Pavelka stood no chance on some of the goals...if not all of the goals.

- Very feisty early on. Clark "fight" wasn't much, though. I thought we were going to have a full brawl at some point. There was just that feeling in the air. Nothing came of it, though.

- Great crowd, probably 4,000+. They weren't overly vocal, though, which was surprising (at least from our seats).

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11-09-2012, 09:53 PM
  #299
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Can anyone say great game? I mean does anyone know when Warren Rychel is going to get his head out of his butt and make a trade... What he's going to do is wait way to long, it's already over due.

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11-09-2012, 10:08 PM
  #300
youngblood10
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They only had (2) too many men on the ice penalties in this one.

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