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Old
10-28-2012, 02:17 AM
  #101
SDig14
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Originally Posted by Martini View Post
By solid trades, decent drafting in more then their three high lottery picks and even then one was a bust, and by actually paying money to bring talent in thru free agency."Sucking" as you put it, put them in position to actually take advantage of drafts and making the best possible picks when they had them as high as they did. Why yes, I thank the lucky stars that two teams passed on Toews and that in the only time in the Blackhawks history when they had the number one pick overall, they invested it in Patrick Kane. The Oilers, on the other hand, have had the pick of the litter for the last three years, taking the best availible forward and paying no attention to their obvious weakness on the blue line. Further putting them in a more realistic postion to be picking rather high next year in another draft so they can, finally address their weak defensive corps, and even then, its a question mark. The Oilers, in all their craptasticness as of late, are still playing catch up to the rest of the league in terms of team balance only because they have an obvious fascination with scoring goals upon goals while watching other teams score even more goals on them.

Now, my main debate, is of course, instead of trying to focus on one thing that even before this years draft, the Oilers will not have a problem doing with all of the offensive talent they have, scoring goals, they should have traded down and actually helped themselves in what might be their biggest need, and thats getting players who will help them on the blue line. Which, no matter what anybody says, is the only thing from keeping this team from actually becoming a playoff contender. And on that note, Johnny Toews isnt the answer for this team. He plays great defense, but from the looks of it, Eberle will be just as good, imo, of course. A team that is as horribad as the Oilers, shouldnt have one person who is off limits in actual trade proposals considering just how embarrassing they have been. It is the GM's job to fix this problem instead of being happy that his team picks first for three straight years and emassing so much talent that has gone nowhere. If somebody would actually trade a number one defenseman to this team and the price is an Eberle or Hall, you have to look in the mirror and see if that trade is exactly the trade to make this team better, potential be damned in leiu of actually making the playoffs. Thats the goal last time I checked.

And on that note, I actually like the Oilers and all of the talent they have. But if Stan Blowman was willing to pony up Duncan Keith and the price was Hall, you have to make that trade and not look back.
While I agree with a fair amount of this, it's still a terrible idea to trade down or reach for need in the first round, especially in the lottery.

History is definitely not on the side of the team trading down, and it usually ends in epic failure.

It would have nice to have a clear defenseman as the best player when the Oilers picked, but that wasn't the case.

The GM is the one that needs to simply accumulate the best talent and use it to balance out the roster.

I don't see the Oilers being bad enough to get a guy like Seth Jones, so it could be a centre and another forward this year unless they get a little closer to the playoffs and pick in the 8-12 range.

That being said, Justin Schultz has looked impressive as a pro so far and Klefbom looked good apparently in his games earlier this year, so I think we have some pieces coming just no clear elite #1.

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10-28-2012, 02:37 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Shanahanigans View Post
Value wise this isn't off IMO.

But both teams would never do it for obvious reasons.

Plus, Chicago is a second line centre (and a goalie) away from being a cup contender. They don't trade a top 5 centre in the game for a winger, and have their centre depth go from passable to atrocious.
This. A more likely deal would be Kane+Kruger for Eberle+Gagner.

Hawks lineup can then go to:

Sharp/Toews/Hossa
Stalberg/Gagner/Eberle

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10-29-2012, 06:55 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
This. A more likely deal would be Kane+Kruger for Eberle+Gagner.

Hawks lineup can then go to:

Sharp/Toews/Hossa
Stalberg/Gagner/Eberle
I don't see why EDM would want a Kane for Eberle deal, it's kind of a sideways movement except for the fact that both are deemed franchise players by each club and are so are more valuable in their respective home cities than in a trade. Eberle is on a much better contract. Plus doesn't have any of the off ice issues kane has.

Gagner for Kruger? Unsure on Kruger haven't seen him play, better defensively so could be a better fit as a 2C, but not a lot bigger, and largely unproven in the NHL.

I would rather try use Yakupov in a a blockbuster for a stronger young centre who can play a all round shut down game role being able to provide good offence. Couturier/Schenn ish for example.

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10-29-2012, 10:16 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
This. A more likely deal would be Kane+Kruger for Eberle+Gagner.

Hawks lineup can then go to:

Sharp/Toews/Hossa
Stalberg/Gagner/Eberle
Kane=Eberle and Gagner>Kruger. Blackhawks would have to certainly add for Edmonton to even consider such a lateral move. They are basically taking a sidestep with Kane for Eberle, but also passing up on Eberle's future.

Not only that, but one of their main weaknesses is their center position, which is the main reason for the original proposal. With this deal, they take away their 2C and Horcoff is playing second line minutes, and Belanger third line minutes.

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10-30-2012, 03:34 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by Zippy316 View Post
Kane=Eberle and Gagner>Kruger. Blackhawks would have to certainly add for Edmonton to even consider such a lateral move. They are basically taking a sidestep with Kane for Eberle, but also passing up on Eberle's future.

Not only that, but one of their main weaknesses is their center position, which is the main reason for the original proposal. With this deal, they take away their 2C and Horcoff is playing second line minutes, and Belanger third line minutes.
It's still way too early to say that in terms of both skill and value.

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10-31-2012, 02:25 PM
  #106
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Kane=Eberle and Gagner>Kruger. Blackhawks would have to certainly add for Edmonton to even consider such a lateral move. They are basically taking a sidestep with Kane for Eberle, but also passing up on Eberle's future.

Not only that, but one of their main weaknesses is their center position, which is the main reason for the original proposal. With this deal, they take away their 2C and Horcoff is playing second line minutes, and Belanger third line minutes.


This is almost as bad as somebody saying Hall is more of a winner then Seguin when Seguin already has a ring and all Hall has done in his brief NHL career is lead his team to two consecutive first overall draft picks.

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10-31-2012, 09:21 PM
  #107
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This is almost as bad as somebody saying Hall is more of a winner then Seguin when Seguin already has a ring and all Hall has done in his brief NHL career is lead his team to two consecutive first overall draft picks.
One player doesn't win a Stanley Cup, be reasonable. Put Hall on that team instead of Seguin and they are just as good and likely still win because they were playing the best out of any team in the playoffs 2 years ago.

As far as the Eberle being as good as Kane comment, not sure what part of that is amusing. I think it would be a little strange to say he is better than Kane, but equal seems more than fair.

Plus, we are talking about trade value, not skill. Kane has had numerous off ice issues that are more of a concern to the Oilers than the Hawks, because the Hawks can simply sit down and work it out but the Oilers won't trade a kid they love with respect to character for someone with off ice issues.

Kane is the better playmaker of the two, Eberle seems to be the better scorer.

Last year Eberle was better offensively than Kane in even less games, based on last year alone it's more than fair to say they are at least equal.

That being said, last year does not tell the whole story, but they are similar ages so if they both have similar years again next year it will likely tell more of a story than just last year alone.

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10-31-2012, 09:23 PM
  #108
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It's still way too early to say that in terms of both skill and value.
It's still too early to say he is better, but too early to say he is on par with Kane?

What exactly makes it too early?

I suppose it's a smaller sample size for Eberle, so you must think last year was simply a fluke for Ebs and he will never maintain that level of play?

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11-01-2012, 02:10 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by SDig14 View Post
It's still too early to say he is better, but too early to say he is on par with Kane?

What exactly makes it too early?

I suppose it's a smaller sample size for Eberle, so you must think last year was simply a fluke for Ebs and he will never maintain that level of play?
You think he'll keep a 19% shooting percentage like he had last year? You think Kane will stay at 9%? You think Eberle will be able to control the possession game like Kane? Do you think Eberle will ever be as deceptive and as good at stealing the puck as Kane?

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11-01-2012, 05:41 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Martini View Post


This is almost as bad as somebody saying Hall is more of a winner then Seguin when Seguin already has a ring and all Hall has done in his brief NHL career is lead his team to two consecutive first overall draft picks.
This is the stupidest argument on HF Boards.

Colin Fraser > Steven Stamkos.

After all, Fraser has two cup rings while Stamkos has zero!

And if you want to talk about being a winner, Hall led his team to back to back Memorial Cups while Seguin was a passenger on the Bruins when they won the Cup. You really think Seguin was the driving force behind that team?

(Note to Bruins fans, I'm not slagging Seguin, he's a hell of a player and I'd take him on the Oilers in a heartbeat.)

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11-01-2012, 06:19 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by deytookerjaabs View Post
You think he'll keep a 19% shooting percentage like he had last year? You think Kane will stay at 9%? You think Eberle will be able to control the possession game like Kane? Do you think Eberle will ever be as deceptive and as good at stealing the puck as Kane?
With respect to the latter part of your question. Kane and Eberle are very different types of players. Eberle is actually quite good on the cycle, but he is not going to be the guy on his line that controls the puck. That's Nuge's job. He is a pretty shifty guy, but Kane is extraordinary in this regard. What Eberle is great at is controling the puck close to then net, or finding a small opening in tight to get a shot off.

As for the shooting % stuff. I don't think you have a strong case.

Kane's NHL S% average for his career is 10.7%. We don't know what Eberle's typical year will look like but if you look at how they play the game it is easy to explain why there could be a significant difference.

First off Kane is much more of a playmaker than a shooter. But he also shoots from further out that does Eberle. Eberle's game is basically very close to the net. He has an accurate shot with an excellent release, but he tends to take few shots unless he is in tight. This helps increse S% but tends to decrease shot totals. Take a look at Milan Lucic. He has 3 seasons with S% over 17%. Is this because he has Stamkos's shot, or is it because offensively he pretty much plays the game in oppositions crease.

As Oiler fans we heard over and over again why Ryan Jone's 18 goals in 2010-2011 was unsustainable and as a result why it was a mistake to resign him. We were told that plumbers like Jones don't have S% in the 14% range. But guess what, last year there was Jones with 17 goals and a S% of 12.4%.

In the end though, most Oiler fans don't expect Eberle to score 34 goals year in and year out. Almost every player has fluctuations in his numbers from year to year.

While I don't think comparing Eberle and Kanes value is unreasonable, I also do not think a trade around these players would make any sense.

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11-01-2012, 09:05 AM
  #112
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The only player to consistently maintain a shooting percentage that high for more than just one season has been Stamkos, so I think it's safe to say it was an aberration for Eberle. His goalscoring is simply not (even close to being) on that level.

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11-01-2012, 09:49 AM
  #113
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Originally Posted by SDig14 View Post
It's still too early to say he is better, but too early to say he is on par with Kane?

What exactly makes it too early?

I suppose it's a smaller sample size for Eberle, so you must think last year was simply a fluke for Ebs and he will never maintain that level of play?
I think last year was a fluke for both Kane and Eberle.

I don't think Eberle's offensive totals will decline by much, but I think they will decline. Probably around 60-70ish point for him. Meanwhile, I think Kane's will rise back to where they used to be. Health permitting, I expect him to be an 85ish point player for most of his career.

As for the trade, I wouldn't trade Patrick Kane alone for Eberle and Gangnam, and honestly I believe he's worth more than both of them combined. Adding in Kruger -- of whom I'm not even a huge fan -- just makes the trade that much worse.

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11-01-2012, 08:19 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by deytookerjaabs View Post
You think he'll keep a 19% shooting percentage like he had last year? You think Kane will stay at 9%? You think Eberle will be able to control the possession game like Kane? Do you think Eberle will ever be as deceptive and as good at stealing the puck as Kane?
1. Kane controls the puck more because he is a playmaker. Eberle is the better scorer of the two players, so he tends to create offense off the cycle for himself and take feeds from a guy like RNH.

2. The shooting percentage is tough to predict. Eberle had a very high shooting %, but he also didn't take nearly as many shots as the best scorers in the game. I expect him to regress as far as %, take more shots, and end up with another 30+ goal season (pro-rated, since likely not playing 82 games).

3. Being "deceptive" doesn't in itself provide value, unless you use using to produce at a very high level. For example, Hemsky has some of the best hands in the game, but that's not really a skill that adds to his value.

When Kane is playing well he is very deceptive, agile, and controls the puck extremely well, all of which is better than Eberle, but they are very different players.

Kane is more "deceptive" and controls the puck on his stick probably better than guys like Ovy and Stamkos as well, but that doesn't mean he is better than those players, because he isn't.

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11-01-2012, 08:23 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Sevanston View Post
I think last year was a fluke for both Kane and Eberle.

I don't think Eberle's offensive totals will decline by much, but I think they will decline. Probably around 60-70ish point for him. Meanwhile, I think Kane's will rise back to where they used to be. Health permitting, I expect him to be an 85ish point player for most of his career.

As for the trade, I wouldn't trade Patrick Kane alone for Eberle and Gangnam, and honestly I believe he's worth more than both of them combined. Adding in Kruger -- of whom I'm not even a huge fan -- just makes the trade that much worse.
Fair enough, you are more than entitled to that opinion, but you have to admit if you were the Oilers GM and it was a simple one-for-one trade Kane for Eberle you would clearly have some hesitation.

It's very tough for managers, fans, etc. to predict the future, so GMs would see how well Eberle played last year and the fact Kane has off ice issues and perhaps want to just keep your 22 year old all-star coming off a career year.

I do expect his shooting % to decrease, but he is very opportunistic, has great hands, and simply knows how to score. He could easily decrease to 14-15%, but his increase his shot totals, and end up with a similar # of goals.

If you think Eberle will regress by 10 points and Kane will improve by 20 next year then it's a bad deal for your end, but IMO they will both be similar in point totals next year and I would rather keep the kid we invested time and $ in already and is a fan favorite.

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11-01-2012, 08:44 PM
  #116
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The only player to consistently maintain a shooting percentage that high for more than just one season has been Stamkos, so I think it's safe to say it was an aberration for Eberle. His goalscoring is simply not (even close to being) on that level.
There's a big difference between shooting whenever there's an opening and shooting when you have a scoring chance. Eberle does the latter

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11-01-2012, 09:46 PM
  #117
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One player doesn't win a Stanley Cup, be reasonable. Put Hall on that team instead of Seguin and they are just as good and likely still win because they were playing the best out of any team in the playoffs 2 years ago.

As far as the Eberle being as good as Kane comment, not sure what part of that is amusing. I think it would be a little strange to say he is better than Kane, but equal seems more than fair.

Plus, we are talking about trade value, not skill. Kane has had numerous off ice issues that are more of a concern to the Oilers than the Hawks, because the Hawks can simply sit down and work it out but the Oilers won't trade a kid they love with respect to character for someone with off ice issues.

Kane is the better playmaker of the two, Eberle seems to be the better scorer.

Last year Eberle was better offensively than Kane in even less games, based on last year alone it's more than fair to say they are at least equal.

That being said, last year does not tell the whole story, but they are similar ages so if they both have similar years again next year it will likely tell more of a story than just last year alone.
In my opinion Kane is clearly the better player but Eberle is awesome in his own right. His hands in tight are almost unmatched.

Would definitely take Kane over Eberle though, no question.

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11-01-2012, 10:21 PM
  #118
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In my opinion Kane is clearly the better player but Eberle is awesome in his own right. His hands in tight are almost unmatched.

Would definitely take Kane over Eberle though, no question.
I'm alright with agreeing to disagree on that.

I think the Kane off ice issues are a bit overblown, but his teammates, organization, and owner still have to answer questions about it and it can be a distraction.

If Kane can get healthy and get back to his past production then I would take him over Eberle, but I'm not sold it is going to be that easy going forward. Kane is the flashy offensive player and Eberle just goes about his business and puts pucks in the net.

I think their production will be similar over the next 5 years.

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11-01-2012, 11:02 PM
  #119
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There's a big difference between shooting whenever there's an opening and shooting when you have a scoring chance. Eberle does the latter
You can claim that all you want, but that type of shooting percentage being sustained suggests a generational goalscorer, and that is certainly not Jordan Eberle.

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11-01-2012, 11:19 PM
  #120
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You can claim that all you want, but that type of shooting percentage being sustained suggests a generational goalscorer, and that is certainly not Jordan Eberle.
What are you basing that on?

There have been plenty of players well over 15% in their careers that were not even close to generational scorers.

Guys like rob brown, ray ferraro, tanguay, Gary Roberts, mark hunter, and a few others had 18+% over their careers, none remotely close to being generational.

Heck, there are about 20 guys with higher %s than Mario.

It's pretty simple, there are factors to consider other than pure skill, and it's mostly the fact Eberle doesn't shoot that much compared to others who had 30+ goals last year and he doesn't take unnecessary shots.

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11-01-2012, 11:31 PM
  #121
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Nearly every player you named played in different eras from each other and from the current one. Tanguay would seem to be an anomaly.

A shooting percentage that high (19.2, wasn't it?) is simply unsustainable unless you are getting fairly lucky or you're as good a goalscorer as Steven Stamkos.

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11-02-2012, 12:32 AM
  #122
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Nearly every player you named played in different eras from each other and from the current one. Tanguay would seem to be an anomaly.

A shooting percentage that high (19.2, wasn't it?) is simply unsustainable unless you are getting fairly lucky or you're as good a goalscorer as Steven Stamkos.
Improbable, but not impossible.

Either way, that's not even the point. He could regress to 14%, increase his shot totals, and still out up 30 goals whenever the NHL plays a full season.

No one is ever going to claim he's as good as Stamkos, but even if he does come back down to earth a bit comparing him to Kane as far as value to a team isn't all that ridiculous IMO.

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11-02-2012, 01:10 AM
  #123
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Eberle's had one season on par with Kane's career norm. He has proven far less in NHL situations than Kane has.

He is not as valuable. It's not a landslide by any means, but Kane is the more valuable player.

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11-02-2012, 10:05 AM
  #124
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I think if I'm the EDM GM my only hesitation about a Kane for Eberle swap is whether I need another playmaker. It makes sense for CHI because we already pass the puck around too much, but I feel like EDM probably needs a scorer of Eberle's caliber. Maybe Yak is that guy, but impossible to say for sure.

Value-wise, to teams in general, it's gotta be Kane.

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11-02-2012, 10:40 AM
  #125
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This is the stupidest argument on HF Boards.

Colin Fraser > Steven Stamkos.

After all, Fraser has two cup rings while Stamkos has zero!

And if you want to talk about being a winner, Hall led his team to back to back Memorial Cups while Seguin was a passenger on the Bruins when they won the Cup. You really think Seguin was the driving force behind that team?

(Note to Bruins fans, I'm not slagging Seguin, he's a hell of a player and I'd take him on the Oilers in a heartbeat.)

I'm sorry but did you even watch the playoffs?

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