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Oilers 2010 Draft - "off the charts"?

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Old
10-24-2012, 01:29 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by WeridAl View Post
Reider looks good, but the Oilers can ill afford to have another small forward, he'll most likely end up being traded. He'll not crack the top 6 and he's not big enough to play the bottom 6, dreaming to think he's part of the Oilers future.
Rieder is 5"11 and about 190lbs. This is the same size as a guy like John Madden.

While I agree that Rieder has his work cut out for him I would not write him off just yet. He is a top notch penalty killer and very goo defensively. With a pair of bigger more physical guys he could still be third liner and be effective.

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10-24-2012, 01:30 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by The Last Dynasty View Post
I think 2008 has a chance to be better because the Oilers chose 22nd then 163rd overall

to have Eberle AND Hartikainen become full-time NHLers would be remarkable

2010 11 and 12 all have guaranteed players at #1 overall...not exactly rocket science
Comparing drafts like 2010 with 2008 isn't really fair. If the team had only their own picks in each year it might be more fair. 2008 - 1 pick in the first 4 rounds, 2010 - 6 picks in the first 4 rounds. 2010 would have to produce 6 times more NHL players to be fair. 2010 looks like a great draft, but it almost had to be so.

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10-24-2012, 01:48 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Marc08 View Post
Ranking for most NHL-ready to least NHL-ready
  1. Martin Marincin
  2. Ryan Martindale
  3. Tyler Pitlick
  4. Curtis Hamilton
  5. Kristians Pelss
  6. Brandon Davidson
  7. Tyler Bunz
meh .. the chances of any ONE of these becoming a top 9 forward, top 4 Dman or a starting goalie are slim.

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10-24-2012, 02:18 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by DisgruntledGoat View Post
I dunno... I remember when the 1999 draft looked as promising as hell. Chickens and egg counting and all that.
I agree. The fact is most of these kids have not seen any NHL action and are finding their way at the lower tiers. Until I see them on the regular roster, this is all just fun speculation. Heck, the jury is still out on MPS and where he will fit. There are no sure fire guys here outside of Klefbom and maybe Musil.

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10-24-2012, 03:31 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by MoneyGuy View Post
I think Bunz will turn out to be the steal of that draft for the Oilers.
Yeah, Bunz has been lights out good at every turn so far. All the arrows are certainly pointing in the right direction with him, but with goalies you just never know really. I'm higher on Bunz than I was with Roy at the same age, and Roy has looked good as well in every situation he has been put into. I could actually see Roy being the backup to Dubnyk next season if he continues to play so well at the AHL level. Or at the very least have a real good shot at the backup job and then be the full time starter in the AHL next season. Bunz will likely be the backup in the A next yeart also, so it's pretty sweet that we could have 2 home grown tenders both in the A at the same time.

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10-24-2012, 03:50 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by DisgruntledGoat View Post
I dunno... I remember when the 1999 draft looked as promising as hell. Chickens and egg counting and all that.
Agreed... Jani Rita, Alexei Seminov, Tony Salmelainen...

we did get Mike Comrie out of that draft though

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10-24-2012, 03:56 PM
  #32
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Way too early to be talking up 2010

Pitlick hasn't done anything above and beyond. Hamilton has done less. Both got sent to the AHL too soon.

Marincin is riding Schultz coattails at the moment.


Bunz is the most promising at the moment.. and Pelss is playing above his draft position.

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10-24-2012, 04:04 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by dem View Post
Way too early to be talking up 2010

Pitlick hasn't done anything above and beyond. Hamilton has done less. Both got sent to the AHL too soon.

Marincin is riding Schultz coattails at the moment.

Bunz is the most promising at the moment.. and Pelss is playing above his draft position.
dont agree with the bolded but agree with the overall asessment..
We might have 4 NHLers here but they would just be depth players.

Bunz is impressive but is in ECHL so it wayy too early to call him a successful pick.

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10-24-2012, 04:12 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by WeridAl View Post
My mistake, it would then make his statement more outlandish because Marincin was the steal of the draft that year.
I say Bunz, you say Marincin. I think we'll agree it's a wonderful debate to have, which of these prospects will be the steal of that draft. Let's hope they're both steals in a couple of years. Our team will be that much better because of both guys.

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10-24-2012, 04:26 PM
  #35
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Not to be that guy.. but..
Mark Stone in the 6th seems like a much bigger steal than Marincin

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10-24-2012, 04:46 PM
  #36
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I like how when one draft turns out 3 or 4 players that could *potentially* make the NHL 2 years later, that are still one, maybe two, maybe three years away is considered a "slam dunk" draft. Shouldn't this be happening every year if you have 7 picks? And maybe two become legitamite everyday players that can either contribute to your team or become an asset for you to accquire another piece your team needs.

The other thing with these picks is that Martindale, Hamilton and Pitlick are all late birthdays. The majority of players drafted in 2010 are only just entering their first pro seasons (like Pelss and Marincin). It seems like a futile exercise to provide any sort of definitive evaluation at this point.

Nothing I'm seeing here is exactly material that I'm jaw-dropped to the floor by. Trevor Timmins in Montreal turns out drafts like this almost every year going on more than 10 years. I think Stu is pretty obviously an above average head amateur scout but I don't see how this is "off the charts."

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10-24-2012, 04:52 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
for me the future of the oiler lay in the 2010 and 2011 drafts

the 2011 draft picks could make a dent quicker. Klefbom is nhl ready and most western scout suggest that Musil maybe able to make the jump quicker.

I know from the 2011 draft a lot of people are high on Toby R. I am not worried about his size as I am about his ability to put up with the pro game. I know a few european teams are looking at him for future reasons and I think a year or two in Europe would be perfect for him

these two drafts are also the ammo I use to shoot down ideas on the trade board that the oilers are in desperate need of D.

Oscar Klefbom
David Musil
Martin Marincin

with darkhorse

Dillon Simpson
Martin Gernat
Jeremie Blain
Brandon Davidson

The oilers should be all about proper development of their younger players or have the tool set, but need help building the tool kit to hold all the tool
The bolded would be a real darkhorse. He's no longer with the Oilers organization.

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10-24-2012, 04:56 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by oilsp1ll View Post
I like how when one draft turns out 3 or 4 players that could *potentially* make the NHL 2 years later, that are still one, maybe two, maybe three years away is considered a "slam dunk" draft. Shouldn't this be happening every year if you have 7 picks? And maybe two become legitamite everyday players that can either contribute to your team or become an asset for you to accquire another piece your team needs.

The other thing with these picks is that Martindale, Hamilton and Pitlick are all late birthdays. The majority of players drafted in 2010 are only just entering their first pro seasons (like Pelss and Marincin). It seems like a futile exercise to provide any sort of definitive evaluation at this point.

Nothing I'm seeing here is exactly material that I'm jaw-dropped to the floor by. Trevor Timmins in Montreal turns out drafts like this almost every year going on more than 10 years. I think Stu is pretty obviously an above average head amateur scout but I don't see how this is "off the charts."
Carolina's scouts landed them Skinner and Faulk without a top 5 pick.
Add a couple other big Dmen who are nicely developing through the univ system and a very good goalie prospect out of Denmark. (0.941% in SEL last year and a good start in AHL this year)

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10-24-2012, 05:04 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
Carolina's scouts landed them Skinner and Faulk without a top 5 pick.
Add a couple other big Dmen who are nicely developing through the univ system and a very good goalie prospect out of Denmark. (0.941% in SEL last year and a good start in AHL this year)
Sorry, I'm a bit confused, what are you addressing exactly? Are you talking about the part where I say Montreal has a good scouting team and you're saying Carolina also does?

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10-24-2012, 06:16 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by dem View Post
Way too early to be talking up 2010

Pitlick hasn't done anything above and beyond. Hamilton has done less. Both got sent to the AHL too soon.

Marincin is riding Schultz coattails at the moment.


Bunz is the most promising at the moment.. and Pelss is playing above his draft position.
You've clearly haven't watched a game to make this statement. Yes he has made some defensive lapses, but it is his defensive play that has let Schultz play his style. His skating and the way he has handles the puck has surprised a lot of people and has given the Barons another offensive weapon. If other teams keys in on Schultz, Marincin will sneak in and pop one in. If Marincin put on 15-20lbs he could be scary.

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10-24-2012, 06:41 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by KenLinsemanFanClub View Post
The bolded would be a real darkhorse. He's no longer with the Oilers organization.
I thought they retained his rights? I know he is in the ECHL, but I thought he was still oiler property

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10-24-2012, 06:57 PM
  #42
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What do you guys see Marincin's upside as, and where he is most likley to end up.

Ic his upside as a #2 guy, more than likely he will end up as a 4-5 solid D man. A guy who can put up 20 points and be reliable on the back end.

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10-26-2012, 11:28 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by RipsADrive View Post
I think Bunz among the most likely to see time in the NHL eventually.

He's been performing quite well and other than Roy there's not really any other goalies in the system that show much promise.
No way dude, Marincin is my boy. I've been singing that kids high praise for the last 3 years

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10-27-2012, 01:38 AM
  #44
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What do you guys see Marincin's upside as, and where he is most likley to end up.

Ic his upside as a #2 guy, more than likely he will end up as a 4-5 solid D man. A guy who can put up 20 points and be reliable on the back end.
IMO it's too early to tell, I think that top 5 is a safe bet, but he could end up being a legit top 3 D maybe even top pairing. As he gets bigger and stronger we might see him being much more effective in the physical side of the game. Tonight IMO was his most impressive showing of the season to date.

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10-28-2012, 08:59 PM
  #45
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In a lockout year, NOTHING's too early/premature to talk about!

I guess if the speculation (by Terry Jones, remember) is that 2010 draft year looks like a giant win right now (*), how have previous drafts turned out for the Oilers (so far)?

Assuming all of the players listed in his article do suit up in the NHL for at least a game, have we had a draft like that in any other year?

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10-28-2012, 10:01 PM
  #46
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I'm not so sure I have the same optimism for the draft as a whole. Pitlick and Hamilton who both had very strong offensive junior careers both completely dried up once they hit the pro level.

Neither are looking like they are going to be a top 6 contributor. I don't think anyone really had that hope for Hamilton, but I know lots were hoping that Pitlick could be the guy who would one day anchor this teams second line. It's not looking particularly likely to me at this point.

I have maybe the most hopes for Marincin in developing into a top 4. He seems to have a lot of the tools to maybe hit that mark. I have lots of hope for Bunz too, but it is way to far away to have any clear indication if he will ever get a sniff at the NHL.

To be honest I am a little bit concerned with the drafting that this team has, even with Stu McGregor leading the way. When was the last time the Oilers drafted a top 6 forward out of the first round? It's probably too early to tell for 2012 so I will leave that out.

2011 - Maybe Reider, but for a top 6 forward he is likely a very long shot
2010 - Pitlick doesn't look like he has the offensive tools to be a top 6 scoring threat at the pro level. He's got all the tools but so far in his short pro career zilch statistically to show for it
2009 - Zilch. Anton Lander hopefully a third liner
2008 - Hartikainen, again hopefully a third liner. Although I suppose he is a darkhorse to become a top 6 guy in that he has had reasonable offensive success at the AHL level (although far from dominant) and he brings a skill set that our team lacks
2007 - Omark was the closest, but he clearly hasn't been able to cut it

You have to go back to 2002 since the Oilers took a legit top 6 forward outside the first round and that was with Stoll who was really only a top 6 forward for 2 seasons (although a legit one so I will count him for sure).

Our drafting in the first round looks damn good right now. But 3 of these picks were gimmes being first overalls.

Luckily, our defense drafting looks a bit better right now, but most of these guys still look like they are at least a couple years away from NHL contributions.

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10-29-2012, 03:05 AM
  #47
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Really like Pelss. Hope he can continue to improve. For him to have skipped the ECHL as a sixth rounder is pretty great. I think he could be a depth call-up at some point in the future, but I'd love if he ended up being more than that.

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10-29-2012, 03:39 AM
  #48
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I'm not so sure I have the same optimism for the draft as a whole. Pitlick and Hamilton who both had very strong offensive junior careers both completely dried up once they hit the pro level.

Neither are looking like they are going to be a top 6 contributor. I don't think anyone really had that hope for Hamilton, but I know lots were hoping that Pitlick could be the guy who would one day anchor this teams second line. It's not looking particularly likely to me at this point.

I have maybe the most hopes for Marincin in developing into a top 4. He seems to have a lot of the tools to maybe hit that mark. I have lots of hope for Bunz too, but it is way to far away to have any clear indication if he will ever get a sniff at the NHL.

To be honest I am a little bit concerned with the drafting that this team has, even with Stu McGregor leading the way. When was the last time the Oilers drafted a top 6 forward out of the first round? It's probably too early to tell for 2012 so I will leave that out.

2011 - Maybe Reider, but for a top 6 forward he is likely a very long shot
2010 - Pitlick doesn't look like he has the offensive tools to be a top 6 scoring threat at the pro level. He's got all the tools but so far in his short pro career zilch statistically to show for it
2009 - Zilch. Anton Lander hopefully a third liner
2008 - Hartikainen, again hopefully a third liner. Although I suppose he is a darkhorse to become a top 6 guy in that he has had reasonable offensive success at the AHL level (although far from dominant) and he brings a skill set that our team lacks
2007 - Omark was the closest, but he clearly hasn't been able to cut it

You have to go back to 2002 since the Oilers took a legit top 6 forward outside the first round and that was with Stoll who was really only a top 6 forward for 2 seasons (although a legit one so I will count him for sure).

Our drafting in the first round looks damn good right now. But 3 of these picks were gimmes being first overalls.

Luckily, our defense drafting looks a bit better right now, but most of these guys still look like they are at least a couple years away from NHL contributions.
Although I don't view Stu's drafting as transcendent like many on this board seem to, it's pretty damn hard to draft top six forwards outside of the first round of the draft. It's not really a reasonable expectation to be doing that year-to-year. I took 2007 as an example and after a quick scan, there were two top-six forwards in the ENTIRE DRAFT outside of that 1st round - Wayne Simmonds in the second round and Jamie Benn in the 5th. There's nothing you can do really to specifically draft top-six forwards I think, you're going to have a lot of busts if you do. I'm going to randomly assume that 100/180 picks were forwards, that's less than 60%, pretty reasonable. If there are 2 top-six forwards out of 100 picks.. that's a 2% likelihood you drafted a top-six player outside of the first round.

I looked at 2005 draft, a little farther back and everybody should be fully developed, and maybe 2007 was just a bad year overall for forwards. I got Stastny, James Neal and Mason Raymond in round 2, Matt D'Agostini in round 6 and Sergei Kostitsyn in round 7. That's five legit top-six forwards in another 100 forward picks. 5/100 is 5%....

So, basically, what I'm trying to say is that it's freaking hard, like extremely hard, to draft top-six outside of the first round unless you have some sort of crystal ball. I wouldn't exactly be blaming that on the scouting staff, scouting is freaking hard. If you can find an NHL contributor of any kind outside the first round you did a really good job. Realistically, you should be hoping your first rounder to become a top-4 D/top-6 forward replacement and one of your other picks to turn into a player simply good enough that another NHL team would want on their team playing every game (this is assuming you have 7 picks or less in a draft). If you do that, you're an elite drafting team. If you did anything better than that, you probably had a franchise-making draft. It sounds pessimistic to take this view initially, but if you look at drafts from the past 10 years historically, it's actually being generous. Of course you want all your prospects to demonstrate promise, that's an entirely other conversation and it's very important they do that for trade purposes.

So for you to expect something to happen every year or every couple of years that has a 2 to 5% chance for every single team COMBINED is a little absurd.


Last edited by puckfan13: 10-29-2012 at 03:54 AM.
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10-31-2012, 12:43 PM
  #49
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Thanks for that bit of analysis... I was wondering how often that happens (drafting a top-6 forward outside of the first round) for all teams, not just the Oilers, to see how we've done.

And Stoll was a first-round pick in his first draft by Calgary before he returned to the draft and we nabbed him the 2nd round, right?

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10-31-2012, 09:20 PM
  #50
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edit: misread a post

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