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Ovi can't even light up the KHL, can we finally admit that he's past his prime?

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Old
10-25-2012, 03:07 PM
  #126
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Originally Posted by Crabovski View Post
Your exaggerating my claim but you do get my point. Ovechkin had those 3 years where he had the NHL by the balls. He came into the NHL and played his game for 2 years, learned the game at this level, than played it even moreso to his strengths. His first 2 years his avgs were just below 50goals and just below 100pts. Reasonable for a Rookie superstar.

The next 3 years, domination no doubt, but look at the flow of his goal scoring totals. 65 - Kills the league. 56- Where he should be at a regular basis, still trying his pony move and its still working for him, the next season he gets 50, still good but he quickly trended down from 65 to 50. Thats a big margin.

The following year he cant even get 40 but its clear hes still an elite hockey player, the assists were still coming and he was still great, just not his goal scoring totals. And than you have last year. I think that was a product of lost confidence.

Statistically I see Ovechkin being that guy he was in his first 2 years when he get it together. A guy like Stamkos however, thats someone I think were going to see hit 60 goals quite a few times. Ovechkin will be a step above Kovalchuk but under Stamkos, when this lockout ends.
In his 5th season he scored at a 57g 124 pts pace per 82 games. His 65 goal season is one of the greatest goal-scoring seasons ever, it'd be ridiculous to expect that to be his norm.


Last edited by Stansfield*: 10-25-2012 at 03:56 PM.
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Old
10-25-2012, 03:16 PM
  #127
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How many here have ACTUALLY SEEN Ovy play?

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10-25-2012, 03:56 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by kemisti View Post
How many here have ACTUALLY SEEN Ovy play?
?
Im pretty sure all of us

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10-25-2012, 04:30 PM
  #129
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Ovi's problem isn't that he's past his prime but rather he is like a lot of players when they sign a fat long term contract they seem to lose that drive which got him the fat deal in the first place. Ovi has lost that drive he once had. Seems to happen to Russians more than any other.

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10-25-2012, 04:36 PM
  #130
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Come on guys.

Its cause hes Russian.

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10-25-2012, 05:32 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by vespa99 View Post
?
Im pretty sure all of us
Based off the OP who used his KHL stats as the premise that Ovi is past his prime based off his play in the KHL. Have you've seen him play this year for Dynamo Moscow?

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10-25-2012, 06:33 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by TAnnala View Post
If this means what i think it does i don't buy it. Ov was clear cut best or top-3 player for a stretch of 5 years not for 1 or 2. You don't do that by taking advantage of one trick. You honestly think that Ovechkin magically exploited some weird shooting trick for half decade and suddenly people just realized and got on to him? Sounds made up.
Well, careful now. I don't know about "clear cut" for 5 years. Finished well outside the top 10 in Hart voting in '10/11 and didn't even receive a vote last year, so it has to be 5 years previous to that? He finished outside of the top 5 in his rookie year ('05/06), and only got one vote in '06/07, so we're running out of years left if we're trying to find 5 seasons where Ovechkin was a "clear-cut top/top 5 player", let alone "top 3".

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10-26-2012, 12:51 AM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Crabovski View Post
Your exaggerating my claim but you do get my point. Ovechkin had those 3 years where he had the NHL by the balls. He came into the NHL and played his game for 2 years, learned the game at this level, than played it even moreso to his strengths. His first 2 years his avgs were just below 50goals and just below 100pts. Reasonable for a Rookie superstar.

The next 3 years, domination no doubt, but look at the flow of his goal scoring totals. 65 - Kills the league. 56- Where he should be at a regular basis, still trying his pony move and its still working for him, the next season he gets 50, still good but he quickly trended down from 65 to 50. Thats a big margin.

The following year he cant even get 40 but its clear hes still an elite hockey player, the assists were still coming and he was still great, just not his goal scoring totals. I attest that to for those 3 yrs, he was a 'one dimensional goal scorer' - it demeans his game Ill admit, but that low laser was something nobody really ever tries, and it was working like crazy for him, how could he not fall in love with it. And than you have last year. I think that was a product of lost confidence.

Statistically I see Ovechkin being that guy he was in his first 2 years when he get it together. A guy like Stamkos however, thats someone I think were going to see hit 60 goals quite a few times. Ovechkin will be a step above Kovalchuk but under Stamkos, when this lockout ends.


Trust my crystal ball
I don't know, regressing from 65 to 50 is a fast downplay, true, but Ovechkin was on pace for 57 that year which would have put him in the same level as he was year before. 55-60 goals. I consider his 65 goal season more of a peak than his prime.

I just don't buy in to your analogy. Players are not as predictable as you think, and even if they are they are not as easy contained as you think. There is no way that the rest of the league just suddenly learned how to defend against Ovy. If it would be that easy they would have done it a lot sooner than after 5 years.

Also, +100 point rookie season and just under 50/100 average after sophomore is not reasonable. It is pretty damn great.

I think that the issue is more of a play style the Caps have, Ovechkin being too lazy on some parts and the lost of "mojo". I do think that Ovechkin still has the ability to put up Rocket/Art caliber years, but i have no idea if he will do it. But it is not about other players, it is about Ovechkin.

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10-26-2012, 12:52 AM
  #134
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Well, careful now. I don't know about "clear cut" for 5 years. Finished well outside the top 10 in Hart voting in '10/11 and didn't even receive a vote last year, so it has to be 5 years previous to that? He finished outside of the top 5 in his rookie year ('05/06), and only got one vote in '06/07, so we're running out of years left if we're trying to find 5 seasons where Ovechkin was a "clear-cut top/top 5 player", let alone "top 3".
I should have been more clear. I meant as an average of 5 years he was pretty damn close to having the best 5 year span if not the best. For the stretch of 3 years he was pretty much the best player and a top player for the first 2.

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10-26-2012, 01:04 AM
  #135
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Originally Posted by Mr Writer View Post
Yes, that is correct, historically most (goalscorers) have their best statistical season at age 25 and then trend downwards. There are exceptions of course.
Serge Savard always said when he was Habs GM that the prime of a NHL player is usualy 27 years old as far as the right mix of physical shape, experience and so forth.

But I always figured that a player in his prime these days may last longer because they are more in shape now than players in the past. For example many players recently have signed big deals around 30 years old. But in the case of AO, it may go in reverse because he pushed his body too much. He peaked early, was God at 21-22(greatest hockey machine I had ever seen) and has now nothing left to give.

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10-26-2012, 01:33 AM
  #136
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Surprised it took defenders this long to figure out Ovechkin, TBH. All he did, or use to do, not sure if he still does this but from some KHL highlights I've seen he does, is come over the blueline and shoot it through the defenders legs. How is this not predictable?

I don't think we'll ever see 50+ goal Ovechkin again. There's a reason why Crosby dominates the NHL and Ovechkin can't anymore.

Ovechkin will likely still be near the top in points though.

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10-26-2012, 02:34 AM
  #137
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Originally Posted by PG Canuck View Post

I don't think we'll ever see 50+ goal Ovechkin again. There's a reason why Crosby dominates the NHL and Ovechkin can't anymore.
How does Crosby dominate the NHL?
Outside of the ridiculous half-season stretch two years ago Crosby never played on a "dominating" level compared to Ovechkin and Co.

And his play since has been nothing close to it...
He's had some point vs (mostly murdering the Isles), but you can see he's nowhere near that pre-concussion level, especially in the goalscoring department.

Yes, he's had some rough luck with injuries, but the Pens of last season depended on Malkin, not Crosby.

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10-26-2012, 02:38 AM
  #138
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Can't remember any player ever "lighten(sic) up" the KHL. The KHL/RSL has always seemed a pretty low-scoring league.

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10-26-2012, 04:45 AM
  #139
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Originally Posted by Corto View Post
How does Crosby dominate the NHL?
Outside of the ridiculous half-season stretch two years ago Crosby never played on a "dominating" level compared to Ovechkin and Co.

And his play since has been nothing close to it...
He's had some point vs (mostly murdering the Isles), but you can see he's nowhere near that pre-concussion level, especially in the goalscoring department.

Yes, he's had some rough luck with injuries, but the Pens of last season depended on Malkin, not Crosby.
Pretty much entirely off base, especially given that, in the past two years that you claim his level has been "nothing close" to before, he has actually become an even more productive scorer (when on the ice, admittedly). One year he returns as not only one of (if not) the best "all-round" players in the league, but also one of the best goal scorers. Then the very next year (last year), with/despite all the concussion talk/focus, he came out and was producing at the highest rate of his career so far. That's scary good for someone who's apparently "nowhere near" their previous high level.

Point being, when he's on the ice (and regardless of anyone here's opinion of his current condition) he's still has the best claim on the title of "league's most dominant/best player". Glad Malkin was able to get some hardware in his absence, as he deserves it and is without doubt the best #2 guy I can think of since Forsberg in Colorado (or Jagr in Pittsburgh, I suppose).

And as for the "points mostly against the Islanders" part, you should have checked to see that he actually scored more points against the Devil, Rangers, and Sens last year than he did against the Islanders. Same was also true in '10/11, btw, and fwiw. But I suppose this thread is supposed to be more about Ovechkin specifically; not Crosby.

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10-26-2012, 05:24 AM
  #140
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I don't know if there's a big enough "headshake" for the OP, he was 26 all of last year and he's past his prime? Give your head a shake!!! He has at least five years before he's past his prime.

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10-26-2012, 05:42 AM
  #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kimota View Post
Serge Savard always said when he was Habs GM that the prime of a NHL player is usualy 27 years old as far as the right mix of physical shape, experience and so forth.

But I always figured that a player in his prime these days may last longer because they are more in shape now than players in the past. For example many players recently have signed big deals around 30 years old. But in the case of AO, it may go in reverse because he pushed his body too much. He peaked early, was God at 21-22(greatest hockey machine I had ever seen) and has now nothing left to give.
It's all debatable of course... I'm sure in Savard's era that was true, it was a much older league back then, I'm not sure if the same rule applies to today. Just look at players who have their best productive years and how old were they when they had their best years.. and from what I've read it seems to come at age 25. And after that, production goes into decline... not for all... remember there are exceptions to every rule.

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10-26-2012, 06:02 AM
  #142
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Haven't seen him the KHL yet but over the years I think it was becoming obvious that teams were starting to watch him a lot more closely and that stretch pass and booming one-timer started fading away. The whole BB defensive system probably didn't help his offense much either. The thing OV needs to do, and all great players have this in common, is to change his game up a bit. Don't become so predictable.

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10-26-2012, 08:54 AM
  #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UCantHandleMyRiddum View Post
Ovechkin: 13GP 6G 8A 14PTS (On 1 of the best teams in the league)
Malkin: 13GP 5G 12A 17PTS (On a bubble Team)
Stopped reading after that. This guy has NO CLUE! Yeah, Malkin only plays with 2-time KHL scoring champion while Ovechkin has no player on his team who is anywhere close to PPG
He's also looked really good in some games.

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10-26-2012, 09:00 AM
  #144
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Originally Posted by Kimota View Post
Serge Savard always said when he was Habs GM that the prime of a NHL player is usualy 27 years old as far as the right mix of physical shape, experience and so forth.

But I always figured that a player in his prime these days may last longer because they are more in shape now than players in the past. For example many players recently have signed big deals around 30 years old. But in the case of AO, it may go in reverse because he pushed his body too much. He peaked early, was God at 21-22(greatest hockey machine I had ever seen) and has now nothing left to give.
Players are signing these mega-deals at ~30 because the NHL salary structure is setup that way. If there was ever a player that proves that the new proposed 5 year ELC is a bad idea, it's Ovie.

Let's imagaine the 5 year ELC has been around since last lockout and apply it to Ovie.

2005-06 GP-82 G-52 A-54 P-106 Salary-$850,000+Bonuses
2006-07 GP-82 G-46 A-46 P-92 Salary-$850,000+Bonuses
2007-08 GP-82 G-65 A-47 P-112 Salary-$850,000+Bonuses
2008-09 GP-79 G-56 A-54 P-110 Salary-$850,000+Bonuses
2009-10 GP-72 G-50 A-59 P-109 Salary-$850,000+Bonuses
2010-11 GP-79 G-32 A-53 P-85 Salary-$$9,538,462 (current cap hit)
2011-12 GP-78 G-38 A-27 P-65 Salary-$9,538,462 (current cap hit)

This doesn't even account for inflation or the Hart, Rocket, and two 1st-Team All-star selections Ovie accomplished after signing that huge deal.

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10-26-2012, 09:09 AM
  #145
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Based off the OP who used his KHL stats as the premise that Ovi is past his prime based off his play in the KHL. Have you've seen him play this year for Dynamo Moscow?
I have, and I was not impressed (If I compare him to his prime self). He looks slow and heavy out there. Prime Ovi was a beast. he was one of the most amazing and gifted physical specimens the NHL had ever seen. How many guys of that size could move like this? Had that lethal combination of power, strength, speed and explosiveness?

You guys make it seem as if I said that Ovi sucks. My statement that he's past his prime.

A past his prime Lemieux was still a dangerous player. Same with a past his prime Gretzky (we can name a bunch of superstars in the same boat). Ovi might not be as effective out of his prime, because he doesn't have the hockey I.Q and vision of these guys.

The bottom line is that Ovi is simply not even close to being in the conversations for the best player in the world anymore. He will most likely never score 60 goals again. He might have the odd resurgence season but because he no longer has all of his tool and can't seem to adjust, he'll never be as effective as he once was.

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10-26-2012, 09:13 AM
  #146
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Originally Posted by PG Canuck View Post
Surprised it took defenders this long to figure out Ovechkin, TBH. All he did, or use to do, not sure if he still does this but from some KHL highlights I've seen he does, is come over the blueline and shoot it through the defenders legs. How is this not predictable?

I don't think we'll ever see 50+ goal Ovechkin again. There's a reason why Crosby dominates the NHL and Ovechkin can't anymore.

Ovechkin will likely still be near the top in points though.
Ovi doesn't go to the dirty areas anymore, Crosby does, even with the concussion issue...

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10-26-2012, 09:32 AM
  #147
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Stopped reading after that. This guy has NO CLUE! Yeah, Malkin only plays with 2-time KHL scoring champion while Ovechkin has no player on his team who is anywhere close to PPG
He's also looked really good in some games.
I remember when people would say: "Ovi doesn't any linemates in order to produce". Now people are like "Look at his linemates, they suck!"

A true elite player does not need others to make him look good. He’s the one who’s supposed to make others look good.

Ovi used to be Elite. But he no longer is. That's a fact. He still has an Elite shot though.


Last edited by Riddum: 10-26-2012 at 09:43 AM.
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10-26-2012, 09:38 AM
  #148
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Wait. I thought for a 3rd year in a row OV was roaring back? Maybe next year huh?

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10-26-2012, 09:43 AM
  #149
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Originally Posted by Mr Writer View Post
It's all debatable of course... I'm sure in Savard's era that was true, it was a much older league back then, I'm not sure if the same rule applies to today. Just look at players who have their best productive years and how old were they when they had their best years.. and from what I've read it seems to come at age 25. And after that, production goes into decline... not for all... remember there are exceptions to every rule.
I think generally with the super talented ala Ovechkin, Crosby, Yzerman, Gretz, Mario etc. they generally reach their scoring peak before they are 25, and decline scoring wise into their mid 20's.

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10-26-2012, 09:49 AM
  #150
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Wait. I thought for a 3rd year in a row OV was roaring back? Maybe next year huh?
750 players in the NHL, FOUR scored more goals than he did last year while he's learning to be a better all around player. Yeah the guys totally sucks hey

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