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Karlsson vs. Doughty vs. Pietrangelo (without a twist)

View Poll Results: Who is the best defenceman (in order):
Karlsson-Pietro-Doughty 85 18.24%
Karlsson-Doughty-Pietro 75 16.09%
Pietro-Karlsson-Doughty 70 15.02%
Pietro-Doughty-Karlsson 76 16.31%
Doughty-Karlsson-Pietro 57 12.23%
Doughty-Pietro-Karlsson 103 22.10%
Voters: 466. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
11-01-2012, 05:44 PM
  #426
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Originally Posted by OilShorts View Post
I don't have anything on Pietrangelo, but I did find these on Karlsson and Doughty.

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...ls-and-spills/

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...-final-series/

Obviously, the Karlsson one is evaluating his entire season, and the Doughty one is just the Stanley Cup finals, but they start to give you an idea about how good overall Doughty is, and how poor Karlsson is on defense.
That's a good demonstration of why the Edmonton media is considered the biggest joke in the hockey world. He makes up a bunch of numbers that suit his opinion.

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11-01-2012, 06:00 PM
  #427
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Originally Posted by NyQuil View Post

If you get the puck out of your zone, that's a defensive play, not just an offensive one.
The geeks don't have a metric for this one yet so we're just gonna assume it doesn't exist until they create one, mmkayy.

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11-01-2012, 06:02 PM
  #428
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Originally Posted by porknbeans1000 View Post
I think to call something generational you have to prove yourself over the years. Crosby was called generational at one point and so was Ovechkin.
I think all they've proven is that aside from health factors, natural generational talent isn't good enough anymore.

They are generational talents. Crosby works as hard or harder than anyone else so it stays that way, most of the league beats Ovechkin in work ethic and a handful of players actually catch up, almost all of whom are not generational talents; some not close.

Personally I think it's been a generation since we've seen a blueliner as slick and talented like Karlsson. It will remain to be seen for a long time whether that's backed up by achievement and numbers. As far as natural scoring talent, it's been a while.

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11-01-2012, 07:39 PM
  #429
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Originally Posted by sw1tch View Post
Behindthenet has him as having the 2nd easiest minutes of the defencemen but ill take your word for it since you watched him
Pietrangelo consistently went against the top competition, the Jackman-Shattenkirk pairing played against the 2nd level of competition most of the time, but Hitchcock would also use the 2nd and 3rd pairings based on situations. If we needed a goal, Shattenkirk would play with Pietrangelo, with Russell getting the other minutes. If we needed to protect a lead, Pietrangelo would get playing time with Jackman and Polak mostly. So that's where those statistics balanced out.

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11-07-2012, 03:47 AM
  #430
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Originally Posted by Sureves View Post
I invite you to prove me wrong.
Challenge accepted. Well, not because of you... but it seems to work out that way.

The problem with NHL statistics is that they are ultimately a measure of team play. Presuming these stats to be even moderately indicative of individual play is credulous at best.

The truth of the matter is that NHL statistics for whatever reason are archaic. Corsi, qualcomp, +/- are ancient measures of individual skill, and we are long overdue for a statistical revolution as a means of player evaluation.

Over the past year (sparked by the initial Pietrangelo vs Karlsson debate) I have been in development of a new set of algorithms intended to evaluate individual defensive play. Now, while there are still some kinks to work out, and due to not having the time I'd like to work on it, it may be a while before the finalized product is ready for me to showcase. However, it is incredibly complicated mathematics, and not something a layman can understand. So I'll do my best to explain the premise of the new statistical measure, which if I may be so bold, I truly believe will be revolutionary in individual statistical analysis of defenseman.

Ok. First thing is qualcomp is thrown out in the trash where it belongs. This measure of statistical analysis isn't worth the paper it was initially printed on.

Corsi on the other hand, is on the right track. An archaic first step, but a first step nonetheless.

What I'm doing is calculating based upon a yearly league wide basis where the statistical highest probability of a shot being scored is, and assigning a designated value (variable) to that area of the ice. Not necessarily where the most goals are scored from, but where the highest shooting pct is from.

Then, I break down the defensive zone into similar value variables of where a defenseman should be. Now this is where it starts to get tricky.

The defensive zone breakdown assigned values are relative to where the puck is at any given moment, and where the opposing players are on the ice. Values are assigned accordingly, relative to all factors mentioned. Puck position relative with two variables as modifiers being the statistical shooting pct from where the puck is held and the defensive zone value attributed to that area of the ice where the puck is.

Ok, before we go on, I need to state another variable that is currently a work in progress. Covering lanes. This has been rather tricky to evaluate, but I'm relatively close to having a working formula. I'll not go into details, because it is not yet finished. But what I will say is that the puck traveling through the designated values of the broken down defensive zone areas and successfully reaching another player can be evaluated rather precisely. Using the league wide shooting pct modifier, defensive zone value, and defenseman position when the pass is made. This is one of the harder aspects to quantify with my limited time, but I'm confident I will create a working model within the next year or so. Time permitting.

Alright. Now shots. Shots directed at the net is what I use. So when I say shots, that is what I mean. Someone whiffing or a broken stick doesn't negate a quality chance.

Ok. That dzone value i mentioned, well there is an adjusted version when a shot occurs. Before it was relative to successful passes relative to defensive area values (which are relative to league wide shooting pct), puck possession in the defenseman's ice area value (did i explain this. Dman modifiers and values are assigned given all mentioned variables when opposing team has the puck in the zone. Where the puck is at any given moment, and where the defenseman should be relative to that position. "Where he should be" is defined by an algorithm made up of all previously mentioned variables), and other factors which I seem to have lost my train of thought on (it is quite late. Election night party ).

So, to explain this, when an opposing player takes a shot, there is a value modifier on that shot which effects the dmans "final marks". Whether the shot came from a pass, and if so using the passing formula mentioned above, where the shot was taken from, and where the dman was relative to the shot.

How the dman position works relative to the shot is a combination of ice area values previously assigned to both the shooter and the dman position (in every situation. A puck on the half boards will have a different result than a shot from the point for example). So there is an "ideal position" for the dman to be in at every area of the ice a shot is taken from. Well, to be more accurate, there is an ideal area of the ice the dman needs to be in relative to the shot value, and opposing open players in the dmans designated area of influence (an area which itself is broken down into different ratios and factor). So the final Dman marks on the shot (Dmen are evaluated in everything from possession, position, position relative shot, lane coverage, and many other unmentioned factors. And yes, there are values aka marks a dman gets for every shot), For example, shots from the slot with my formula have very high negative deduction values on both dmen. In fact, opposing puck possession in the slot has negative values (relative to the possession stuff i mentioned earlier). So a shot from the right side of the ice will determine the dman value variable depending on where the right side was relative to that shot. This has multiple modifiers and variables attached to it as well, including allowing negative values assigned to dman for low pct shots resulting from them choosing to take another man.

Still working on determining values for opposing side dmen of where shot was taken. I'd explain this... but... one sec. Let me read this.

*sigh* I just took a break and reread that. What a convoluted mess it appears to be. I'm not much of a linguist, but I assure you that these algorithms will show true defensive play. I'm going to stop short here though, as explaining complicated mathematical models in language is a terribly inefficient task. I'll wait until I have numbers to present.

The problems im having so far is the simplification of the results, and correctly balancing the values to equate to consistent results. Right now the results come out as a garbled mess of numbers and letters that most GM's and scouts wouldn't understand. So I'm trying to figure out a way to put it into a simple and explainable manner. Also, the values need tweaking. I have a lot of work to do on it.

Point is, when I'm done, I will post the formula here on this site. I will analyze a 10 game spread between Karlsson and Pietrangelo. It will be a true measure of individual defensive analysis, and I really believe will be the single most useful set of equations yet derived capable of evaluating individual defensive capacity.

But like I said, I have a lot of work to do and not a lot of time to do it. But when it comes... be it 6 months or 2 years... I will indeed prove you wrong.

Edit: Ok. This is a mess, I realize that. I'll simplify and explain it better tomorrow when I'm less tired.


Last edited by Minimalist*: 11-07-2012 at 04:09 AM.
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Old
11-07-2012, 10:17 AM
  #431
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I've already been working on metrics of my own for the past year but don't really get around to it recently. I have spurts when I am pretty passionate about it and some games get done but then I have months where I just don't even bother with it.

Your above metric seems to be focused on defensive positioning and would already be a gigantic burden to get data for over even a 10 game sample. If you start to add some of the other aspects of the game, it becomes, pretty much, not worth it as (me personally anyways) you start to question yourself and where you made mistakes in your model and how many times you will need to re-watch a single game to even get a single piece of satisfactory data.

Some of the more important stats (in my opinion) that are still not tracked outside of purely positioning on the ice are individual puck battles (its hard to quantify how much of an edge one player has over another due to closer positioning, angles of teammates, how clean they win it, etc since simply counting who wins how many is going to be very flawed, very much like faceoffs is), zone entries/zone exits (again, hard to give a weighting to different zone entries and exits based on how much pressure a player is under and how clean the exit/entry is, since even I could skate it into the offensive zone or out of the defensive zone if given an amazing pass and having 3 seconds of free space to work with), and average time of the puck on the stick of the player receiving a pass from player in question (with this one I'm kind of trying to measure how clean of an option the initial passing lane/route was and how much pressure you hand off to your teammates vs. giving them an easy play/more time and space. It's something I notice from watching Datsyuk frequently; he very rarely puts his teammates into a spot where they need to make a good play just to keep possession alive and I think it's the most important attribute out there. He helps lesser teammates keep possession alive; the play rarely dies with him, and all the while he is helping it to not die with his teammates as well). Another player good at this is Kopitar.

However, I don't even know how to begin to measure the 3rd stat there. Even if I did, I don't even know/think that it would be measuring what I want it to be, so it is probably meaningless anyways.

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11-07-2012, 10:55 AM
  #432
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@Minimalist: I'm all for more advanced statistical measures, but how would you mine data for yours? Wouldn't a lot of that have to be hand-recorded by the public as opposed to being available via the NHL.

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11-07-2012, 11:10 AM
  #433
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Originally Posted by SmellOfVictory View Post
@Minimalist: I'm all for more advanced statistical measures, but how would you mine data for yours? Wouldn't a lot of that have to be hand-recorded by the public as opposed to being available via the NHL.
I can't speak for him, but I rewatch a game multiple times to datamine for my metrics, I would assume he is doing the same since what he is measuring is not being recorded anywhere. Basically you watch a shift and get a general idea, then rewind and watch it again focusing on the player in question, then assign "points" or a "grade" or whatever to that play, then rewatch it again, then make adjustments to the score you gave them. Continue for every shift that player has for the rest of the game.

Then you try to weigh things against each other as well as overall and (for me anyways) I realize that there is nothing to base the weightings on and arbitrary weightings are completely meaningless and biased so they are useless and then I get discouraged and put it off for a few months. I feel like it's pretty pointless until you know what to measure the metrics relative against to even record them, since you don't know what you are recording even. Even if you have in mind what you are looking for, its impossible to determine how much more value that specific metric has in having a positive impact on winning a hockey game, so you really don't even understand what you are measuring yourself.

I think I would need to sit down with the top X of NHL coaches and have them teach me about the game in order to even begin developing accurate metrics. They obviously can't quantify or articulate it well either though, so maybe that would be useless as well.

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11-07-2012, 11:44 AM
  #434
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Karlsson just had the best offensive season for a defensemen in a long time. That is what a dynamic offensive defenseman looks like; a guy like Bourque, Coffey, Leetch.

It does seem like a lot of these superstars have trouble maintaining in today's league; a dropoff/correction seems inevitable. But disregarding that, I think I'll take Karlsson.

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11-07-2012, 11:53 AM
  #435
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I don't understand how you could possibly make any type of even remotely reliable model by yourself...

You need to watch hundreds of games in excruciating detail, with consistent grading, to develop the model in the first place (assuming the results you get are even statistically significant to goals against).

Watching Karlsson or Pietrangelo once you have that model for 10 games is the easy part (subjectivity and bias aside)...you could do that in a month or two.

But the project you are describing, designing the model itself, is not a one person project, and it's not a one year project.

Not even close.

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11-07-2012, 02:21 PM
  #436
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It really is like Bourque, Leetch and Coffey...Doughty, Pieterangelo and Coffey.

Now if Bogosian can just get his act together and Schultz emerges, then we have Chelios and Housely as well.

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11-07-2012, 03:07 PM
  #437
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It really is like Bourque, Leetch and Coffey...Doughty, Pieterangelo and Coffey.
Where can I get recent clips of this guy . I just want to say Coffey was comically fast.

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11-07-2012, 04:39 PM
  #438
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Originally Posted by OilShorts View Post
I don't have anything on Pietrangelo, but I did find these on Karlsson and Doughty.

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...ls-and-spills/

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...-final-series/

Obviously, the Karlsson one is evaluating his entire season, and the Doughty one is just the Stanley Cup finals, but they start to give you an idea about how good overall Doughty is, and how poor Karlsson is on defense.
wow, this is sad

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11-07-2012, 09:08 PM
  #439
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Doughty
Karlsson
Pietrangelo

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11-11-2012, 12:23 AM
  #440
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I just came here (again) to say that I hate all threads involving Karlsson. It's the same crap over and over again.

Sens fans, let it go. We're all so happy with Karlsson's play and his success. No need to get into arguments about the "4th forward" or "defense sucks" comments. These people clearly have a different (wrong ) mentality of defensemen like Karlsson. Too often, if you lead the defensemen in points, you must suck defensively. Also, all the positives are ignored... like break-out passes or carrying the puck from behind your net to the offensive zone. To some people, the only defense is when you play the prototypical "rough and tough" style.

EDIT: If you want to be crowned the best defenseman on HF, get like ~60 points then you must be good defensively and offensively.

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11-11-2012, 10:55 AM
  #441
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I just came here (again) to say that I hate all threads involving Karlsson. It's the same crap over and over again.

Sens fans, let it go. We're all so happy with Karlsson's play and his success. No need to get into arguments about the "4th forward" or "defense sucks" comments. These people clearly have a different (wrong ) mentality of defensemen like Karlsson. Too often, if you lead the defensemen in points, you must suck defensively. Also, all the positives are ignored... like break-out passes or carrying the puck from behind your net to the offensive zone. To some people, the only defense is when you play the prototypical "rough and tough" style.

EDIT: If you want to be crowned the best defenseman on HF, get like ~60 points then you must be good defensively and offensively
.
Bolded for the truth,as i have mentioned repeatedly those other great two way defenders EK is often compared all have at least 4 inches and 20+ pounds on him.He can never defend in his zone the way they can ,on the physical side.But he does defend in ways those other bigger defenseman cant ,which is with elite speed ,smarts and skill

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11-11-2012, 11:09 AM
  #442
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Leafs fan saying Karlsson-Pietro-Doughty. The amount of flak Karlsson gets is ridiculous. 21 year old defenseman coming off a PPG Norris trophy season and is at the very least average defensively. The other two bring slightly better all around games but Karlsson trumphs them offensively.

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11-13-2012, 01:18 PM
  #443
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18. Hall of Famer Brad Park was known for his look-offs and head fakes. "I'll tell you who's the best now," he told HNIC Radio last week. "It's this kid [Erik] Karlsson in Ottawa. This kid doesn't make any mistakes ... He sees it so well. He's a throwback to myself and Bobby Orr with his offensive capabilities. This kid is that good. When you're carrying the puck, you know you're going to the right wing, but you've got to sell left wing."
So who's gonna berate Brad Park for using Erik's name in the same sentence as Bobby Orr's. There's no place for a Bobby Orr in today's NHL, but I'll tell ya EK's not far off from as good as it gets these days.

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11-13-2012, 03:49 PM
  #444
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Went Doughty - Pietrangelo - Karlsson but if was a tough decision

Doughty is deffs the best of the 3. I couldn't really decide between Pietrangelo and Karlsson

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11-13-2012, 03:55 PM
  #445
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So who's gonna berate Brad Park for using Erik's name in the same sentence as Bobby Orr's.
Well his statement isn't completely accurate. Karlsson can tell you beforehand which wing he'll go, and you won't stop him anyways, too speedy/shifty.

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11-13-2012, 04:05 PM
  #446
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Originally Posted by Minister of Offence View Post
So who's gonna berate Brad Park for using Erik's name in the same sentence as Bobby Orr's. There's no place for a Bobby Orr in today's NHL, but I'll tell ya EK's not far off from as good as it gets these days.
No one has ever questioned his puck carrying capabilities, which is all Park is saying.

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11-13-2012, 04:07 PM
  #447
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Isnt paul coffey an unrealistic enough comparison? Must we drah orr down to this level?

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11-13-2012, 05:12 PM
  #448
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Doughty-Pietroangelo-Karlsson

Doughty and Pietro will pull away from Karlsson in the future.

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11-13-2012, 06:25 PM
  #449
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Doughty-Pietroangelo-Karlsson

Doughty and Pietro will pull away from Karlsson in the future.
This.

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11-14-2012, 07:00 AM
  #450
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Originally Posted by AJMHABS View Post
Doughty-Pietroangelo-Karlsson

Doughty and Pietro will pull away from Karlsson in the future.
Karlsson and Pietrangelo have already pulled away from Doughty

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