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No More Lockout Blues! - 2012 Lockout Part 2 [UPD: AGREEMENT REACHED!]

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11-20-2012, 02:07 PM
  #226
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See, I don't agree. I suppose that the argument could be made that the league did come back stronger last time, but I do believe that this time around the the NHL will feel the pinch. Maybe not a huge one, but I do believe that there will be a drop on revenue.

Here's why. What trend spawned out of the NHL lockout last time around? The WSOP. Now granted that it was always around, but it really receives alot of attention and still does. Thing is...you can't buy tickets to that really, you just watch on TV.

This time around its the MLS. Granted, it's a game that has been around for a few years now, but hasn't really picked up steam until recently. I thi k that more and more people are starting to check that out and a good amount of the casual fan base will be siphoned off and support that sport instead.

I doubt it will be dramatic, but I wouldn't be surprised if the NHL actually lost a bit of money in the next season or two in reference to previous years.

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11-20-2012, 02:49 PM
  #227
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
The megathread was moved to the NHL forum. The BoH board is now being reserved for discussion of the core business issues, with no megathread there. General discussion is now being moved to the NHL Talk forum.

It's my honest opinion that the backlash from this lockout will not be as bad as people are predicting. Honestly most of my friends (many of whom are in my ST group or have their own ST tickets) just check in once and while with me to see how the lockout is going, but are not invested in it like many of us on here. so they are not nearly as upset about this, yet they will be back 100% whenever games are played again...I think that that is the majority opinion, whereas the few "diehards" who are so frusterated that they will not be back are the vast minority. I remember many many similiar claims of the "end" of the NHL during the last lockout, yet the game came back stronger than ever. I have no worries that this lockout will end relatively soon and the league will be fine, IMO.
Ah, so that's where it went. I though it was buried because of the circular futility of it all. Same arguments from each side, then someone who just heard about this lockout chimes in with something that was put to rest 6 weeks ago (e.g., "Well the NHL is trying to change the definition of HRR!"). Dammit, now I'm going to have to go check it out again...

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11-20-2012, 03:10 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
Dammit, now I'm going to have to go check it out again...
There's really no need. It's still circular and mostly polarized. Clearly a strong pro-ownership group bent here (and tsn.ca but not at espn or yahoo). It's entertaining if you don't take it too seriously. Some wickedly twisted logic abounding.

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11-20-2012, 03:30 PM
  #229
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Fehr, the PA and Captain Bob completely disagree with you. They don't think it's the best offer yet.

Tomorrow's offer will give an indication of where the PA stands. If it's a nonstarter for the league, clearly the PA doesn't think the league is in trouble or has reached their best offer yet. They may be right about the best offer part at least, but only time will answer that question. It's a gamble and they may lose rather substantially.

Like Holden's group I think most fans, especially in Winnipeg where we're hypersensitive to league economics, are just moving on with their lives and will return to hockey when it returns to them.
I was looking at the numbers - once they get to the point where HRR is reduced by 30% this season (i.e., HRR = $2.3 billion), the players would need a split of 52% to break even (over 7 years), compared to if they had taken a 50-50 split before the season started.

If the whole season is lost, the players would need a 56.5% share of HRR over the following 6 years to break even. And 56.5% seems pretty unlikely.

This all assumes an HRR growth rate of 5%.

It obviously would've been in everyone's best interest to get this all settled before the lockout began - but it's especially in the players' best interest because a lost season costs them $1.87 billion. The owners only see a fraction of HRR in actual profits ($200 million?), so they lose a lot less.

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11-20-2012, 03:49 PM
  #230
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Originally Posted by buggs View Post
There's really no need. It's still circular and mostly polarized. Clearly a strong pro-ownership group bent here (and tsn.ca but not at espn or yahoo). It's entertaining if you don't take it too seriously. Some wickedly twisted logic abounding.
I go for the hilariously bad analogies. Someone compared the owners' first offer (43%) to offering someone $6 on a $500,000 house. Even Don Fehr made a car-buying analogy that was way off - comparing the owners first offer to offering $15,000 on a $35,000 car. In real terms, the NHL's 43% first offer was like offering $26,500 on a $35,000 car. The owners' 50% offer is analogous to offering $30,900. They also don't want the rust proofing or extended warranty...

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11-20-2012, 03:56 PM
  #231
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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
I was looking at the numbers - once they get to the point where HRR is reduced by 30% this season (i.e., HRR = $2.3 billion), the players would need a split of 52% to break even (over 7 years), compared to if they had taken a 50-50 split before the season started.

If the whole season is lost, the players would need a 56.5% share of HRR over the following 6 years to break even. And 56.5% seems pretty unlikely.

This all assumes an HRR growth rate of 5%.

It obviously would've been in everyone's best interest to get this all settled before the lockout began - but it's especially in the players' best interest because a lost season costs them $1.87 billion. The owners only see a fraction of HRR in actual profits ($200 million?), so they lose a lot less.
I want to know who (if any) is the sober voice of reason inside the PA? Is someone actually pointing this out to the boys or are they keeping them focused on right vs wrong......what do we get back for giving in on 50-50 etc etc. etc etc etc????? it's obvious (to me at least) that it is not about the future because of the huge focus on short term contract fulfillment, the "make it whole" push by the PA, but can it really be about the short term when they are shooting off their nose to spite their face? I have no idea what the PA's real plan is?

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11-20-2012, 06:32 PM
  #232
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Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
I want to know who (if any) is the sober voice of reason inside the PA? Is someone actually pointing this out to the boys or are they keeping them focused on right vs wrong......what do we get back for giving in on 50-50 etc etc. etc etc etc????? it's obvious (to me at least) that it is not about the future because of the huge focus on short term contract fulfillment, the "make it whole" push by the PA, but can it really be about the short term when they are shooting off their nose to spite their face? I have no idea what the PA's real plan is?
Yes there is. His name is Teemu Selanne. That guy is all about the fans and how it's not fair for us because we pay their salary. I really hope after he's done that he continues on in some capacity with the league or the PA or even as a coach or something.

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11-20-2012, 09:00 PM
  #233
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Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
Yes there is. His name is Teemu Selanne. That guy is all about the fans and how it's not fair for us because we pay their salary. I really hope after he's done that he continues on in some capacity with the league or the PA or even as a coach or something.
I love Selanne sully and couldn't agree with you more on him.....i'm just not sure how he is relevant to my post?

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11-20-2012, 09:19 PM
  #234
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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
I go for the hilariously bad analogies. Someone compared the owners' first offer (43%) to offering someone $6 on a $500,000 house. Even Don Fehr made a car-buying analogy that was way off - comparing the owners first offer to offering $15,000 on a $35,000 car. In real terms, the NHL's 43% first offer was like offering $26,500 on a $35,000 car. The owners' 50% offer is analogous to offering $30,900. They also don't want the rust proofing or extended warranty...
All the owners first offer was a flip of the expired CBA. The players had a favorable 57-43 split so the owners just offered a reverse 43-57 split. Everyone knew the end game was 50-50, as you couldn't possibly telegraph things any more obviously.

Getting back to your car analogy. A car has a $ 43,500 sticker price but you know the invoice is $ 35,000, so you offer $26,500 exactly the same amount below invoice as the sticker price is above. You may still not get it at invoice but you made it clear where you will negotiate from.

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11-21-2012, 12:44 AM
  #235
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I love Selanne sully and couldn't agree with you more on him.....i'm just not sure how he is relevant to my post?
I think he's the voice if reason in the PA? That was what it was about right?

Sorry, I got excited after the first line when I knew the answer to the rhetorical question.

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11-21-2012, 07:06 AM
  #236
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Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
I think he's the voice if reason in the PA? That was what it was about right?

Sorry, I got excited after the first line when I knew the answer to the rhetorical question.
If Selanne has stroke the players would be wise to sit up and listen to him but I sense he is too nice a guy to rock the boat. Last time around the CBA dance I got it since the systemic changes were huge, but this time around missing big chunks of earnings and partnering with the NHL on "potentially" damaging HRR short term at least is not really smart business. The players are letting their emotions cloud their judgement at this point IMHO

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11-21-2012, 09:13 AM
  #237
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Link to this article was posted on the main boards:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/86...ague-eyes-fans

Don't know about the rest of you - but I found it a good read - laying blame where it belongs - on BOTH parties in this dispute - and showing some disgust with this sad spectacle...

Reminds me of Jack Nicholson saying "YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH"

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11-21-2012, 09:18 AM
  #238
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Originally Posted by jimmycrackcorn View Post
Link to this article was posted on the main boards:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/86...ague-eyes-fans

Don't know about the rest of you - but I found it a good read - laying blame where it belongs - on BOTH parties in this dispute - and showing some disgust with this sad spectacle...

Reminds me of Jack Nicholson saying "YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH"
I guess I shouldn't read it then.

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11-21-2012, 09:28 AM
  #239
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If Selanne has stroke the players would be wise to sit up and listen to him but I sense he is too nice a guy to rock the boat. Last time around the CBA dance I got it since the systemic changes were huge, but this time around missing big chunks of earnings and partnering with the NHL on "potentially" damaging HRR short term at least is not really smart business. The players are letting their emotions cloud their judgement at this point IMHO
I totally agree. I think they're all still bitter from the last go around, some of which weren't even playing then.

I think the players are more focused on what's good for them instead of what's good for the sport and everybody. It's the beauty of compromise.

I'm not really sure what else to say, other then that. These guys get payed to play hockey and they make millions doing so....but right now there are several markets that are threatened because their pay roll is too high, and the players seem to be like....whatever....ain't my problem. It's like they don't think that an owner(s) losing money every year won't eventually effect them.

The players need to think long and hard about what's good for the sport, and how much they continue to want to play. I have no doubt that if the league continues on at the rate it is without some big changes to the system, the league is going to lose teams.

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11-21-2012, 09:28 AM
  #240
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Here is another good balance article, which is a rarity these days. Main tone is both sides have already lost, neither side is angels, consessions have been made by everyone and they will all still be rich that's why they will end up with an agreement sooner rather than later.

http://blogs.denverpost.com/avs/2012...37011718750000

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11-21-2012, 09:50 AM
  #241
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Originally Posted by jimmycrackcorn View Post
Link to this article was posted on the main boards:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/86...ague-eyes-fans

Don't know about the rest of you - but I found it a good read - laying blame where it belongs - on BOTH parties in this dispute - and showing some disgust with this sad spectacle...

Reminds me of Jack Nicholson saying "YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH"
Yup. Fantastic article. Really loved reading the email from an NHL employee too.

So, the meeting for today has started. I think, heading into Thanksgiving, the league and PA will announce they have come to an agreement. The season will start on December 15. Good PR to have playing while people in the States eat their turkey and stuffing.

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11-21-2012, 10:25 AM
  #242
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Originally Posted by jimmycrackcorn View Post
Link to this article was posted on the main boards:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/86...ague-eyes-fans

Don't know about the rest of you - but I found it a good read - laying blame where it belongs - on BOTH parties in this dispute - and showing some disgust with this sad spectacle...

Reminds me of Jack Nicholson saying "YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH"
Started reading it, stopped at "WHAAAAAAT-EVAH".

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11-21-2012, 10:29 AM
  #243
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Let's hope that something positive comes out of today's meeting, and not just "I'm positive that the season will be canceled."

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11-21-2012, 10:33 AM
  #244
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Here is another good balance article, which is a rarity these days. Main tone is both sides have already lost, neither side is angels, consessions have been made by everyone and they will all still be rich that's why they will end up with an agreement sooner rather than later.

http://blogs.denverpost.com/avs/2012...37011718750000
I like this article. A lot of us are feeling a bit sheepish, looking back on our predictions about when this would end. I initially predicted we would be playing hockey by now, figuring that basic human economic motivators like greed would get the players back on the ice. I assumed, in the end, that the overriding decision for the players is the one that would that would lose them the least amount of money, despite Fehr's influence and their 'win at all costs' nature.
I was wrong. I neglected to take into account that they make so much friggin money that the laws of behavioural economics no longer apply to them. That, my friends, is too much money, by definition.

Oh well, it won't be the last time I'm wrong in my hockey prognostications. Wait till the season starts!

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11-21-2012, 01:14 PM
  #245
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We're moving in the right direction. Players have moved in some areas closer to the owners. I'm more optimistic right now than I have been in a while.

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11-21-2012, 02:24 PM
  #246
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And, surprise, surprise, apparently no progress was made.

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11-21-2012, 03:22 PM
  #247
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And, surprise, surprise, apparently no progress was made.
I disagree. I think the players did move, though not nearly as much as they say they did. But at least they're both reading off the same dance card to an extent now. And maybe the NHL takes some time to consider some more movement of their own, be it on percentages, contract length or some other area.

I'm no longer sure of anything, but this seems to be the first, complete proposal the PA has provided. If so they can't seriously be that upset that the owners didn't outright jump at it. Had they tabled this offer back in September rather than playing silly games with an entirely new framework, progress might have happened sooner. I'll give them some credit too as I do see concessions in there but I'd really need to see dollar values rather than just percentages.

Also not clear if they're still asking to be paid in full for an 82 game season or not, which they have been. This seems to be something that Fehr convinced the players would happen. That would essentially negate the lockout losses from the player perspective meaning a lockout was a meaningless tool for the owners. I just can't see that working out for the players. The teams can't charge ticket holders for games not played, so to pay the players they'd have to fully pay the salaries with no revenue generated. I was right there with everyone when Dreger reported this in the sense that I thought Dreger forgot to mention the phrase 'pro-rated'. But that wasn't the case, they were asking for payment for the full season like the lockout didn't exist. No pro-rating at all.

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11-21-2012, 03:47 PM
  #248
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And maybe the NHL takes some time to consider some more movement of their own, be it on percentages, contract length or some other area.
I want to believe this, but Darren Dreger just tweeted that Bettman told a fan that the union hasn't been willing to negotiate.

http://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/stat...57924956319744

Quote:
Bettman now in a discussion with a fan...cameras rolling. Tells fan the union hasn't been willing to negotiate.

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11-21-2012, 04:01 PM
  #249
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I disagree. I think the players did move, though not nearly as much as they say they did. But at least they're both reading off the same dance card to an extent now. And maybe the NHL takes some time to consider some more movement of their own, be it on percentages, contract length or some other area.

I'm no longer sure of anything, but this seems to be the first, complete proposal the PA has provided. If so they can't seriously be that upset that the owners didn't outright jump at it. Had they tabled this offer back in September rather than playing silly games with an entirely new framework, progress might have happened sooner. I'll give them some credit too as I do see concessions in there but I'd really need to see dollar values rather than just percentages.

Also not clear if they're still asking to be paid in full for an 82 game season or not, which they have been. This seems to be something that Fehr convinced the players would happen. That would essentially negate the lockout losses from the player perspective meaning a lockout was a meaningless tool for the owners. I just can't see that working out for the players. The teams can't charge ticket holders for games not played, so to pay the players they'd have to fully pay the salaries with no revenue generated. I was right there with everyone when Dreger reported this in the sense that I thought Dreger forgot to mention the phrase 'pro-rated'. But that wasn't the case, they were asking for payment for the full season like the lockout didn't exist. No pro-rating at all.
Agree a lot with what you said.

1. The player did move some, BUT it's hardly the huge sacrifice they've dressed it up as. Essentially all the player have done is made a lateral move(as they have since the beginning) to be in the same language.

2.THey're still very close to their original $$ terms, just changing the "where" and the "why" of how they get the same value. Don't be fooled by the new coat.

3. The NHL will never agree to pay out the full year. I really feel like this, and several other stances, that Fehr has "sold" the players on are what's going to sink this ship. Personally i think Fehr has totally missed the mark on his read of the NHL's situation, what their expectations are, and how much stomach they have for a lost season, and its getting to the point where it's impossible to justify losing the paychecks the players have for what the NHLPA will eventually "win"

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11-21-2012, 04:49 PM
  #250
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Agree a lot with what you said.

1. The player did move some, BUT it's hardly the huge sacrifice they've dressed it up as. Essentially all the player have done is made a lateral move(as they have since the beginning) to be in the same language.

2.THey're still very close to their original $$ terms, just changing the "where" and the "why" of how they get the same value. Don't be fooled by the new coat.

3. The NHL will never agree to pay out the full year. I really feel like this, and several other stances, that Fehr has "sold" the players on are what's going to sink this ship. Personally i think Fehr has totally missed the mark on his read of the NHL's situation, what their expectations are, and how much stomach they have for a lost season, and its getting to the point where it's impossible to justify losing the paychecks the players have for what the NHLPA will eventually "win"
I agree with both of you. There is no way that the NHL agrees to take the full hit given the PA's stalling up untill now. Had the PA offered this framework earlier it probably would have been better received but since a lot of money has been lost the NHL asking the NHL to take it in the chin for the lockout isnt going to fly.

Grind, I agree with your assesment of Fehr. I think he finds himself in a situation that he has nevr been in before, he is up against an advisary who is perhas smarter and just as ruthless as he is and I don't think he knows how to handle it. I think he has miscalculted atleast twice already; once on the 82 game proposal and second on the Winter Classic. In both cases he failed to take the owners deadlines seriously and it cost the players a lot of leverage. There were deals to be had in both cases had the PA sat down and seriously negotiated.

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