That doesn't matter anyways... The point is that patches and cole didn't make DD produce.... They helped eachother. If you honestly think eller could have produced more with those two last season you're being straight ignant son!
Eller has different strengths to contribute (ones that make him more valuble than DD imo) but right now DD would help the habs in the top 6 more than Eller would... Just like eller would help the bottom 6 more.
I see him with Dave Bolland numbers. Can fill in a secon line role and produce, but is more suited for a top tier 3rd line that contributes both ways
I doubt Eller generates more offense than Desharnais, 51 is a very good offensive zone player and Eller isn't brilliant there. I'd think they end up pretty close on goal differential though due to Eller likely being much stronger on goals against than Desharnais.
The real story last year though was how effective Pacioretty and Cole were, and although Desharnais played the bulk of the season with them, they were as effective without him as they were with him. A bit of that was that the Habs center group was pretty good overall last year and pretty much always in the lineup, so no matter what they two of them were going to play with an effective guy in the middle. The same can't be said for the winger offensive group, which went from an excellent 5 man deep group to start the year to just the 2 of them by the back end of the season. As a result, both Plekanec and Eller's ES scoring took a huge nose dive in the second half after being very good (Plekanec's) to respectable (Eller's) for their roles in the first.
I'd object to the idea that Desharnais is a more effective offensive player than Plekanec though, the balance of evidence is in 14's favour. I'd say they are at best equal, with Desharnais' playmaking balanced out for Plekanec's superior goal-scoring.
I'd discribe the Habs current set up at center as one quality all round player (Plekanec), with two others that each have one side of his skill set but not the other with Desharnais being as good on offense but no where near the defense and Eller having a good deal of Plekanec's defensive and puck possession game but not the same offensive effectiveness.
Desharnais is primed to get a bunch more on point totals than Eller, but in terms of value to winning I'd think the two are getting pretty close.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Et le But
The two AKs and a turtleneck line was definitely more PP dependant, but I think this is another example of where Plekanec is underrated - Kovy was the PP force that year, but Plek was the engine on 5 on 5.
Pacioretty was a huge disaster in the NLA and I'm disappointed, but he does have a few excuses - bad team, fought with the coach, got injured pretty quickly.
Desharnais has started picking it up after a slow start, if the lockout continues I think he will be a PPG player - which isn't outstanding for the quality of the league, but he's fitting in better than Patches did.
...and speed, and puck protection, and dangling skills. Put it this way, Eller's ability to carry the puck through the neutral zone made Gomez redundant, which might be a low bar but as sad as this is, that's something both Plekanec and Desharnais aren't very good at.
And I don't know how you can see Eller wasn't good defensively, he still makes mistakes from time to time (There was multiple times this year that Plekanec went over to him after a bad play to explain things), but he was given almost as difficult matchups as Plekanec was for a reason. The Habs were still above average defensively last year even with a small and soft backline, and a lot of that has to do with the forwards, especially Plek and Eller.
The Habs good goals against per game last year was solely due to the PK dominance. On ES they were bottom 5 in goals against rates despite decent goaltending.
Which said a lot for the make up of last year's team. Their good defensive players (Plekanec and Eller on C, Subban, Gorges and Gill (on PK) for D and Moen and Gionta on W, Price in net) were just about as good as any's in the NHL. The depth of defensive ability past them was putrid though.
The real story last year though was how effective Pacioretty and Cole were, and although Desharnais played the bulk of the season with them, they were as effective without him as they were with him.
Cole struggled until he started played with Desharnais and I don't remember him playing with any other center after that. That he got his best goal scoring season playing mostly with DD after playing with guys such as Brind'Amour or Eric Staal must mean something.
Mainwhile Pacioretty has stated a couple of times he really likes playing with Desharnais and that he's a very good player.
I agree with the rest of your post tho, I just wanted to point that out
Cole struggled until he started played with Desharnais and I don't remember him playing with any other center after that. That he got his best goal scoring season playing mostly with DD after playing with guys such as Brind'Amour or Eric Staal must mean something.
Mainwhile Pacioretty has stated a couple of times he really likes playing with Desharnais and that he's a very good player.
I agree with the rest of your post tho, I just wanted to point that out
Cole had a slow start in general. But keep in mind he was playing regularly with DD by game seven.
After a slow start it really didn't matter if Cole was with Desharnais or Plekanec (the only two C's he spent real time with, his time with Eller seems to be almost entirely overlapping shifts) he scored equally well with both.
Cole's ES goals wasn't anything particularly special for him last season. 24 ES goals is a good year for him but well within what he's done before.
The real reason Cole had his highest goal scoring year though was that he played the entire year (compared to the higher rate years of 05-07) and that he had his best PP goal scoring season. This was probably the first time Cole was the primary shooting/scoring option on a powerplay and his PP goals sky rocketed to 11.
Thing is, Cole isn't particularly great at being the top sniper on a powerplay, he was just the best of the lot for the Canadiens in 11-12. Which is shown by how the team effectiveness with him on the ice wasn't very good last year, and how his team PP effectiveness hasn't been very good in recent seasons before MTL either. I don't think he'd have gotten the man-advantage opportunity to hit 11 PP goals and thus 34 in total if Cammalleri had been his usual self with the man-advantage (and had not gotten traded). Given his PP history I doubt he repeats there.
Cammalleri and Cole are a good contrast for eachother in fact. Both can be 30-30 men in the right circumstances but they get there in an opposite fashion. Cammalleri is pretty much an average ES top six winger who isn't going to get huge totals their unless he gets very favourable usage. He's got a great track record for being a top notch PP scorer. Cole on the other hand is consistantly a stud on ES when not injured but historically has been average at best on the man-advantage.
The upshot is, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cole get 20-25 ES goals with either Plekanec or Desharnais over a full season. That's what Cole does. I would be surprised to see him get close to 35 goals again because I doubt he manages the PP production.
The two AKs and a turtleneck line was definitely more PP dependant, but I think this is another example of where Plekanec is underrated - Kovy was the PP force that year, but Plek was the engine on 5 on 5.
I remember a quote on TSN or CBC that year when MTL went to the PP they'd say you don't kill a MTL PP you survive it
I remember a quote on TSN or CBC that year when MTL went to the PP they'd say you don't kill a MTL PP you survive it
In comparative terms Higgins-Koivu were on the PP like the Sedins on ES (elite) while Kovalev was to the powerplay what Ovechkin was on ES (best forward in the league).
On even strength though, Higgins-Koivu scored like fringe 2nd liner and Kovalev an undistinguished top six winger.
AKost and Pleks were both average first line players in terms of scoring on ES and PP. They were the only ones on that team you could actually claim to be particularly good 5on5 scorering forwards that year, although SKost at pretty good numbers for his minutes.
You speak as if all top 6 centers should hit 60 points easily... DD was 20th in scoring for a center last season with 60... and look at the centers ahead of him, all elite talent (and jokinen )
You're not correcting for total ice time.
DD was ahead of Toews, Crosby, and Lecavalier last year. Do you think that's due to superior "vision"?
And yes, if a 1st line center gets 2 big power forwards as his linemates, plays 80 games, gets 14 mins ES time and 3 mins PP time, gets easier opposition, and 52% ozone percentage, then 60 points is a floor. I'd say 80 points is the minimum production needed to get that kind of privilege.
Last edited by DAChampion: 12-06-2012 at 03:48 PM.
DD was ahead of Toews, Crosby, and Lecavalier last year. Do you think that's due to superior "vision"?
And yes, if a 1st line center gets 2 big power forwards as his linemates, plays 80 games, gets 14 mins ES time and 3 mins PP time, gets easier opposition, and 52% ozone percentage, then 60 points is a floor. I'd say 80 points is the minimum production needed to get that kind of privilege.
Did I say DD was the 20th best center? No... I said he was 20th in points for a center and that he is surrounded by elite offensive talents, which says something about his offensive talent...
You keep bringing up the same stats but refuse to answer the real question here... do you honestly believe Eller would have produced the same amount of points with Patches and Cole. If the answer i yes... then that is where we disagree. No stats can prove either of our opinions right or wrong.
I think we both agree that Eller brings more to the table overall, but what I'm saying is DD brings more to the habs playing those extra minutes on the PP, playing those extra minutes in the offensive zone than Eller would
and btw I still don't buy that DD played against weaker opposition than Eller... It was Pleks line against the opponents top line... not Ellers. And it was the oppositions top pairings that would play against the habs top 6, not the bottom pairing.
Anyway, we are about a year away from this debate really mattering. Plekanec is still the teams best C and we don't have the wing depth to concentrate all our scorers on one line again. Eller is for now less proven offensively than Desharnais, he's also much younger and I hope we don't trade him or write him off yet.
Anyway, we are about a year away from this debate really mattering. Plekanec is still the teams best C and we don't have the wing depth to concentrate all our scorers on one line again. Eller is for now less proven offensively than Desharnais, he's also much younger and I hope we don't trade him or write him off yet.
I don't see anyone writing him off. Great two-way player and will only get better
Did I say DD was the 20th best center? No... I said he was 20th in points for a center and that he is surrounded by elite offensive talents, which says something about his offensive talent...
You keep bringing up the same stats but refuse to answer the real question here... do you honestly believe Eller would have produced the same amount of points with Patches and Cole. If the answer i yes... then that is where we disagree. No stats can prove either of our opinions right or wrong.
I think we both agree that Eller brings more to the table overall, but what I'm saying is DD brings more to the habs playing those extra minutes on the PP, playing those extra minutes in the offensive zone than Eller would
and btw I still don't buy that DD played against weaker opposition than Eller... It was Pleks line against the opponents top line... not Ellers. And it was the oppositions top pairings that would play against the habs top 6, not the bottom pairing.
But what does it really change if he would have out produced DD or not?
What's important is, moving forward, could Eller out produce DD in a top 6 role, and which of the two is the better center/winger.
But if you made a Ak-Eller-Cole line, I'm convinced they would have dominated just as much, if not more.
That's irrelevant though, AK is no longer here.
I disagree with you saying DD brings more to the PP table for the simple fact that we haven't seen Eller used on the PP, let alone with the best wingers+dmen. So, how do you know if Eller couldn't do better on the PP? You don't. It's not like he was tried there and failed, we haven't seen him there at all.
And for the match ups, it's not something for you to buy, it's a fact.
and btw I still don't buy that DD played against weaker opposition than Eller... It was Pleks line against the opponents top line... not Ellers. And it was the oppositions top pairings that would play against the habs top 6, not the bottom pairing.
Eller played against tough opposition last year.
Go to BehindTheNet.ca, load up montreal's stats.
Player CorsiQoC
Plekanec +0.727
Eller +0.429
Desharnais +0.007
Nokelainen -0.021
Gomez -0.820
Player CorsiQoC
Plekanec +0.727
Eller +0.429
Desharnais +0.007
Nokelainen -0.021
Gomez -0.820
I guess gomez's production must be due to playing against tougher opposition than Pleks huh... Blunden also played against tougher competition than Pleks too... so this definitely is the be all end all stat line of tough competition
I guess gomez's production must be due to playing against tougher opposition than Pleks huh... Blunden also played against tougher competition than Pleks too... so this definitely is the be all end all stat line of tough competition
Still didn't focus on the main question
You're not making any sense. All that proves is that Gomez really, really sucks.
I guess gomez's production must be due to playing against tougher opposition than Pleks huh... Blunden also played against tougher competition than Pleks too... so this definitely is the be all end all stat line of tough competition
You're not making any sense. All that proves is that Gomez really, really sucks.
Nobody here will argue with you on that.
didn't see the -
my point still stands on blunden though. And Datsyuk has a CORSI QoC of .252... This stat doesn't seem to explain the whole story is what I'm trying to get at
But what does it really change if he would have out produced DD or not?
What's important is, moving forward, could Eller out produce DD in a top 6 role, and which of the two is the better center/winger.
But if you made a Ak-Eller-Cole line, I'm convinced they would have dominated just as much, if not more.
That's irrelevant though, AK is no longer here.
I disagree with you saying DD brings more to the PP table for the simple fact that we haven't seen Eller used on the PP, let alone with the best wingers+dmen. So, how do you know if Eller couldn't do better on the PP? You don't. It's not like he was tried there and failed, we haven't seen him there at all.
And for the match ups, it's not something for you to buy, it's a fact.
It's all speculation is what I'm saying. If you honestly think eller in the same situation would produce more, then I'd have to disagree and leave it at that. I think people underestimate how good of an offensive player DD is, and are quick to toss him aside because it'd be so easy since he's tiny.
That being said, Eller still has room to grow, but I doubt he can ever reach 60 points (even with apparently GOD-like wingers like Patches and Cole)... Would love to see it though, he'd be one hell of a player (he already is).
Eller has been the type of player who gets benched the moment he makes a scintilla of a mistake. Coaches have never given him all the opportunities. As someone pointed out, we have no idea how he would fare on the PP.
If he played 82 games as the 1st line center, with the two biggest offensive wingers on the team, who are 2 of the 3 best wingers, with 14 minutes a game of ES time and 3 minutes a game of PP time, with Subban, Gorges and Kaberle on the backend feeding him passes and preventing counterattacks rather than Campoli, Weber, and Gill; and against substantially easier opposition, then yes, I'd expect him to contribute similar offensive production.
It might not be 16 goals and 44 assists; perhaps it would be 26 goals and 30 assists, or something in that ballpark.
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(even with apparently GOD-like wingers like Patches and Cole)
You mock it, but it's only the second or third time in decades that we've had two first line wingers on the first line for the duration of the season. Historically, Habs 1st lines have been composed of players like Bulis, Zednik, Pouliot, Moen, D'Agostini, etc. Plekanec was playing with White and Staubitz down the stretch. Eller was playing with Moen, Bourque, Palushaj, etc.
Pacioretty and Cole are not Gods, but let's be clear about what they are: they are legitimate 1st line wingers on the majority of teams in the league. As habs fans we need to realize that we're going to be biased in evaluating this, because we're not used to seeing that on the 1st line.
Eller has been the type of player who gets benched the moment he makes a scintilla of a mistake. Coaches have never given him all the opportunities. As someone pointed out, we have no idea how he would fare on the PP.
If he played 82 games as the 1st line center, with the two biggest offensive wingers on the team, who are 2 of the 3 best wingers, with 14 minutes a game of ES time and 3 minutes a game of PP time, with Subban, Gorges and Kaberle on the backend feeding him passes and preventing counterattacks rather than Campoli, Weber, and Gill; and against substantially easier opposition, then yes, I'd expect him to contribute similar offensive production.
It might not be 16 goals and 44 assists; perhaps it would be 26 goals and 30 assists, or something in that ballpark.
You mock it, but it's only the second or third time in decades that we've had two first line wingers on the first line for the duration of the season. Historically, Habs 1st lines have been composed of players like Bulis, Zednik, Pouliot, Moen, D'Agostini, etc. Plekanec was playing with White and Staubitz down the stretch. Eller was playing with Moen, Bourque, Palushaj, etc.
Pacioretty and Cole are not Gods, but let's be clear about what they are: they are legitimate 1st line wingers on the majority of teams in the league. As habs fans we need to realize that we're going to be biased in evaluating this, because we're not used to seeing that on the 1st line.
I'll definitely agree with you there! Cole, patches and DD had career years together. I was mocking because you seem to give no credit to DD for his and his linemates' offensive production. I think DD contributed equally, and is unfairly judged because of his size.
I guess we just see what eller can do offensively differently. He is one of my favourite players on the team, and I like him more than DD, but whenever he played a top 6 role (in the very small sample), he rarely thrived. If Eller manages to put up 60 points while being as effective 5 on 5... we will have one hell of a player on our hands.
He'll get his chance if pleks or DD get injured (knock on wood), but for now, I the team needs him elsewhere.
Historically, Habs 1st lines have been composed of players like Bulis, Zednik, Pouliot, Moen, D'Agostini, etc. Plekanec was playing with White and Staubitz down the stretch. Eller was playing with Moen, Bourque, Palushaj, etc.
Moen, D'Agostini, Pouliot and Bulis didn't play for extended periods on the first line, if at all.
Our real first line wingers in the last decade were : prime Higgins (25g two way scorer, prime Ryder (streaky but effective 30g scorer), Kovalev (better than any winger we have right now), AKostitsyn (who was good in a purely offensive role, not as a glorified grinder. he should have kept focusing on offense instead of big hits) and Cammalleri (a legit first liner). Zednik in his prime was actually a pretty good player, he was definitely one of the most exciting Habs in the early 2000s and would be very useful on our current team. We always had at least 2 of these guys on the team.
While some of these guys are not what would could describe as strong first liner but virtually nobody would have penned Cole and Pacioretty as strong first liners before last year either.
At least don't claim Koivu and Plekanec had no wingers to play with while Desharnais benefitted from superstars. Pacioretty was a 4th year player in the NHL who had never scored more than 20g at any level while Cole was a 32yr old who scored 30g once, half a decade ago playing with a 100pts scoring Eric Staal.
Its a pretty sad exercise to find reasons and excuses to put down a player in order to bring one up. I keep hearing the same tired and very specific statistic arguments that are only used one way.
At least don't claim Koivu and Plekanec had no wingers to play with while Desharnais benefitted from superstars. Pacioretty was a 4th year player in the NHL who had never scored more than 20g at any level while Cole was a 32yr old who scored 30g once, half a decade ago playing with a 100pts scoring Eric Staal.
This is somewhat disingenuous though, Pacioretty never had 20g at any level mainly thanks to Chara, his gpg pace was only just behind what it was last year the year before that, and that was playing next to Scott Gomez. Cole would have had at least one more 30g season if if it wasn't for injuries, in fact his stats last year weren't far off his career norms if taken from a per game basis, and this was with significantly more PP time and against weaker competition than when he played with Staal. Unless you want to credit Desharnais for him being healthy enough to play 82 games.
It's not that we didn't previously have comparably good wingers - Kovalev, Cammalleri, Gionta come to mind, but we rarely had more than 2 at a time and unlike last year, we usually ran with more than one offensive line instead of making every other line sacrificial lambs as we did under Cunneyworth. I liked Kostitsyn a lot but he wasn't as good as either Pacioretty or Cole, and that was the kind of talent we often had on the 1st line. Plekanec had some of his best career moments with one other very good player - Kovalev or Cammalleri when they felt like showing up; but rarely more than one.
The fact is there isn't much evidence beyond the superficial to support the idea that Desharnais made Cole or Pacioretty any better. That doesn't mean the two of them carried DD, in fact if anything he was a nice compliment because neither of them is a good passer and Desharnais is, but I don't buy the argument that such a line is untouchable because of what they did last year. Talk To Goalposts has done a good job in the past breaking down just how good Patches and Cole were last year.
Moen, D'Agostini, Pouliot and Bulis didn't play for extended periods on the first line, if at all.
Our real first line wingers in the last decade were : prime Higgins (25g two way scorer, prime Ryder (streaky but effective 30g scorer), Kovalev (better than any winger we have right now), AKostitsyn (who was good in a purely offensive role, not as a glorified grinder. he should have kept focusing on offense instead of big hits) and Cammalleri (a legit first liner). Zednik in his prime was actually a pretty good player, he was definitely one of the most exciting Habs in the early 2000s and would be very useful on our current team. We always had at least 2 of these guys on the team.
While some of these guys are not what would could describe as strong first liner but virtually nobody would have penned Cole and Pacioretty as strong first liners before last year either.
At least don't claim Koivu and Plekanec had no wingers to play with while Desharnais benefitted from superstars. Pacioretty was a 4th year player in the NHL who had never scored more than 20g at any level while Cole was a 32yr old who scored 30g once, half a decade ago playing with a 100pts scoring Eric Staal.
Its a pretty sad exercise to find reasons and excuses to put down a player in order to bring one up. I keep hearing the same tired and very specific statistic arguments that are only used one way.
You're posting revisionist history.
The truth is that in the period 2002-2003 to 2008-09 Koivu played at a 68 point per 82 game pace (369 points in 445 games) and Habs fans constantly complained that our biggest weakness was the lack of a 1st line center with size. Now that we have a smaller 1st line center, who produces less, in spite of being in a better situation, people are satisfied (!!!).
He did this playing with Higgins and Ryder at best, both of whom are independently offensively inferior to both Pacioretty and Cole, though you could legitimately argue Higgins is a better two-way player. He was frequently playing with worse. However, Pacioretty and Cole are 1st line wingers on the majority of teams in the league. Higgins and Ryder are not.
Cole did have a career year last year. That happens sometimes. Pacioretty? He scored 14 goals in 37 games the year before, so the same offensive pace as this year, playing with Gomez and Gionta. The reason "nobody would have penned him as a 1st liner" is because we didn't expect him to recover from the Chara hit so quickly. I figured he would play badly like a lot of post-concussion players do. However Pacioretty had been considered a future 1st liner by most of the fanbase and habs brass for years.
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I look forward to seeing what Eller can do with good wingers and PP time.
