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Old
11-06-2012, 02:46 PM
  #426
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Originally Posted by New Liskeard View Post
If you make an unrealistic comment, how do you expect to have proper discusion. I think you finally get it. There is risk in aquiring Lou, when you look at his age, and contract. To not acknowledge there is a risk that is involved in aquiring this player, and to expect a very high return among these question marks that you and others acknowledge, makes no sense and is unrealistic. Lou has value, but his value must also be dependant on the risk involved, (age/contact length and hit).
Maybe I was making the unrealistic comment to mock everyone else who is being unrealistic. The people trying to claim they know what will happen with Luongo when there are far too many variables to think of. He could get injured, he could continue to play at the same level, his play could drop off a cliff...etc All of that COULD happen but trying to claim it will or won't is a waste of time.



But it seems like you don't though..... Why shouldn't a player who consistently puts up top 10 numbers return a high value? There is that risk with EVERY players but some how Luongo's value is the only one that drops because of it?

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11-06-2012, 02:46 PM
  #427
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Originally Posted by vanwest View Post
Of course the contract gets taken into account. Otherwise you'd have to give up players like Gardiner plus other significant assets to get an elite goalie.
Based on the contract the OP proposed a second round pick in Finn and a prospect that has struggled to date in Colborne plus a protected first round pick. I think that's a bit high for TO but I don't see any guarantees in any of the pieces coming back either.
Very true, and a fair and realistic assesment. However, what seems to be lost in all this, the one guarantee that is asured, is that the Cannucks aleviate themselves of a cap hit, in a likely scenario where the cap will be going down. I dont see Colborne being traded, due to the fact he is the only true center with size in the organization, which Burke seems to value quite a bit.

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11-06-2012, 02:49 PM
  #428
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Originally Posted by Imagine17 View Post
Maybe I was making the unrealistic comment to mock everyone else who is being unrealistic. The people trying to claim they know what will happen with Luongo when there are far too many variables to think of. He could get injured, he could continue to play at the same level, his play could drop off a cliff...etc All of that COULD happen but trying to claim it will or won't is a waste of time.



But it seems like you don't though..... Why shouldn't a player who consistently puts up top 10 numbers return a high value? There is that risk with EVERY players but some how Luongo's value is the only one that drops because of it?
Thats not the case at all, the issue is if his play does decline, the team that aquires him takes that long term cap hit on a declining player. Its one thing if player begins to decline, its also another if a player declines and carries a long cap hit as well. If Lou's play does decline when moved to another team, the player and contract will be extremly difficult to get out from under should that be the case.


Last edited by spiny norman: 11-06-2012 at 03:37 PM. Reason: corrected [/B][/QUOTE]
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11-06-2012, 02:50 PM
  #429
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What mess? Until we see how things play out, there's nothing to criticize Gillis for. I don't understand why people keep telling us we should accept lowball offers. Other fans' guesses are as good as ours, and if you don't want to give up enough to convince even one Canucks fan, then why bother? Wait until the CBA is resolved and if Luongo gets dumped you can rub it in our faces. Until then we're fine keeping the best goalie in our franchise history and the first good goalie to ever come out of our system together for the time being.

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11-06-2012, 02:50 PM
  #430
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Originally Posted by New Liskeard View Post
Very true, and a fair and realistic assesment. However, what seems to be lost in all this, the one guarantee that is asured, is that the Cannucks aleviate themselves of a cap hit, in a likely scenario where the cap will be going down. I dont see Colborne being traded, due to the fact he is the only true center with size in the organization, which Burke seems to value quite a bit.
I think we will have to wait to see what the CBA says before I comment on the cap hit. If Vancouver is on the hook if Luongo retires then I think this is also relevant. I won't really comment on Colborne as I haven't seen much of him. I have read that he doesn't use his size well but that is not that unusual for a young big player who needs to learn to be more physical.

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Old
11-06-2012, 02:53 PM
  #431
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Originally Posted by New Liskeard View Post
Very true, and a fair and realistic assesment. However, what seems to be lost in all this, the one guarantee that is asured, is that the Cannucks aleviate themselves of a cap hit, in a likely scenario where the cap will be going down. I dont see Colborne being traded, due to the fact he is the only true center with size in the organization, which Burke seems to value quite a bit.
Toronto won't keep his cap hit though. As per the last CBA, it disappears if he retires or he can be buried in the minors. As per the newest proposed CBA, Vancouver would keep the cap hit if he retires early, or he could be traded for nothing to a cap floor team like Florida. There's virtually zero chance Luongo would stay on Toronto's books longer than he'd be wanted.

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11-06-2012, 02:56 PM
  #432
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Originally Posted by new liskeard View Post
thats not the case at all, the issue is if his play does decline, the team that aquires him takes that long term cap hit on a declining player. Its one thing if player begins to decline, its also another if a player declines and carries a long cap hit as well. If lou's play does decline when moved to another team, the player and contract will be extremly difficult to get out from under should that be the case.
If he declines then you trade him (clause in year 5 & 7 I believe to do so) or you dump him in the minors. Luongo has a NTC not a NMC so if he does decline you stick him in the minors & he likely retires. After making all that money he won't want to ride the busses in the AHL.



Its funny the majority of people who claim Luongo has a bad contract don't have the full understanding of how it works & that in fact cap circumvention contracts aren't bad!

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11-06-2012, 02:56 PM
  #433
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No thanks from a Canucks perspective. Value isn't good enough.

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11-06-2012, 02:59 PM
  #434
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Originally Posted by Imagine17 View Post
If he declines then you trade him (clause in year 5 & 7 I believe to do so) or you dump him in the minors. Luongo has a NTC not a NMC so if he does decline you stick him in the minors & he likely retires. After making all that money he won't want to ride the busses in the AHL.
And what team would want to take on a declining older goalie with a 5.3 cap hit with term on it? There were discusions that the new CBA will not allow for contracts to be demoted. That wont be an option anymore. If you have a bad contract, with term, your stuck with it.

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11-06-2012, 03:00 PM
  #435
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seatoo View Post
No one expects Kessel back in a trade for Luo. What we do expect and what is reasonable to expect is pieces of value. Sorry but McArthur, Lombardi and Kadri will not be getting TO anything of value from us.

Kulemin - Middle six winger
Frattin - Bottom six winger with potential
Colbourne - B prospect
Blacker - RH B Dman prospect


Something like that would be more than fair for TO
Actually something like that would be terrible for the Canucks.

1) Why do we need yet another middle six winger? We're already overloaded with them.
2) What has Frattin accomplished that suggests he's a bottom six winger? What makes you even think he would make the third line given you've just added yet another winger to our "middle" six. We have Booth, Higgins, Raymond, Hansen, Kassian, and now Kulemin to fill four winger spots on the second and third lines. Where does Frattin fit?
3) Colborne is a B prospect who's potential does not exceed Schroeder or Gaunce. Why do we have need for him?
4) Blacker is meh. Like you say, B prospect who plays the right side. Nothing exciting.

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Old
11-06-2012, 03:02 PM
  #436
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Toronto won't keep his cap hit though. As per the last CBA, it disappears if he retires or he can be buried in the minors. As per the newest proposed CBA, Vancouver would keep the cap hit if he retires early, or he could be traded for nothing to a cap floor team like Florida. There's virtually zero chance Luongo would stay on Toronto's books longer than he'd be wanted.
That's not true. Unless his play completely diminsihes, Lou is a competitor and determined to win. Its part of his make up that makes him the player that he is.

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11-06-2012, 03:04 PM
  #437
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Your right they aren't comparable. Phaneuf has a higher cap-hit and has had a noticeable decline in his career which can be seen in his game and in stats

My bad I guess a 2nd is more than fair value for Dion
Shows how much you know... Phaneuf is coming off of the best year of his career.

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11-06-2012, 03:08 PM
  #438
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
So let me get this straight, Gagner and MPS are not worth a first round pick, but Luongo is worth three first rounders?

For a deal to work, it has to make sense for both sides. Right now the main thing the Canucks want/need is to get out from under that contract. Theyve made their choice to go with Schneider, so now they need to get rid of Luongo, because having a 33yr old backup goaltender with a ten year contract/cap hit of 5.5, with an actual salary of 6.7mill or whatever it is for the next seven years is a non-starter.

The cap is likely to go down in the new cba at least initially, and the Canucks got Edler turning ufa at the end of the season. They dont have the luxury to demand this or that in return for Luongo when the rubber meets the road. They WILL have to take what the market is willing to give them. Whatever that is. But it doesnt take a genius to figure out that the more cap relief the Canucks get, the less return they will get in the form of roster players/picks/prospects. If they take on some cap coming the other way, then they will get more in terms of player return. If they take nothing or very little back, then that is what they are likely to get in return as far as assets go.

The other fly in the ointment would be Luongo gets a say in where he goes, which significantly hamstrings the Canucks ability to get even market value for Luongo. At this point, I would think taking all of that into consideration, they should count their lucky stars if they were to get rid of him with nothing but cap space coming the other way. I know I would be.

And instead of castigating other fan bases, if I were a Canucks fan, I would be looking to Gillis to accept responsibility for this mess.
Where did I say this? Gagner and MPS not being worth a first, at least Edmonton's first, isn't the same as saying Luongo being worth 3 of the same picks.

As for the rest, I've just got to throw it out. You're calling having two premiere starters a mess? We're not actively trying to move the guy because we don't think he's worth the contract. We have two great starters, and only want to move them if we improve else where. We don't have to move either, both, or even strictly Luongo, so stop pretending to be a Canucks fans, and worry about the "mess" Edmonton is in with its 4 top line future forwards.

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11-06-2012, 03:24 PM
  #439
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Originally Posted by Cogburn View Post
Where did I say this? Gagner and MPS not being worth a first, at least Edmonton's first, isn't the same as saying Luongo being worth 3 of the same picks.

As for the rest, I've just got to throw it out. You're calling having two premiere starters a mess? We're not actively trying to move the guy because we don't think he's worth the contract. We have two great starters, and only want to move them if we improve else where. We don't have to move either, both, or even strictly Luongo, so stop pretending to be a Canucks fans, and worry about the "mess" Edmonton is in with its 4 top line future forwards.
You may want to check where Vancouver sits according to cap geek and then do some research into what the cap may look like in the next year or two.

And yes, a horrible mess Edmonton finds itself in with four of the top young players in the game, all still on their elc's.

They really are in a spot of bother.

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11-06-2012, 03:31 PM
  #440
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
You may want to check where Vancouver sits according to cap geek and then do some research into what the cap may look like in the next year or two.

And yes, a horrible mess Edmonton finds itself in with four of the top young players in the game, all still on their elc's.

They really are in a spot of bother.
Exactly. ANd that is precisely why we'd prefer that you have Dubnyk in net rather than a great goalie like Luongo.
And Vancouver is in great cap shape.

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11-06-2012, 03:34 PM
  #441
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No thanks, vancouver needs pieces that could contribute now.

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11-06-2012, 04:13 PM
  #442
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Originally Posted by New Liskeard View Post
That's not true. Unless his play completely diminsihes, Lou is a competitor and determined to win. Its part of his make up that makes him the player that he is.
So if his play diminishes, trade him to a cap floor team like Florida. For the last 4 years of his deal when he makes a fraction of his cap hit, he'd be very appealing as a veteran backup to bring them to the cap floor. And if the new CBA allows part of the salary to be paid by the team trading him( up to 3 mil acc. to last proposal) he becomes even more appealing to cap floor teams.

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11-06-2012, 04:18 PM
  #443
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Shows how much you know... Phaneuf is coming off of the best year of his career.
Very, very little if this thread is any indication.

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11-06-2012, 04:22 PM
  #444
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Exactly. ANd that is precisely why we'd prefer that you have Dubnyk in net rather than a great goalie like Luongo.
And Vancouver is in great cap shape.
Luongo .919 $5.33/yr for 10yrs
Dubnyk .914 $3.5/yr for 2yrs

Huge difference there.

Vancouver has the third highest cap in the league at almost 68mill. Considering talk has been the cap will be going down to 60mill next year I really dont see how Vancouver is in great cap shape.

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11-06-2012, 04:24 PM
  #445
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Shows how much you know... Phaneuf is coming off of the best year of his career.
What? He didn't have a career high in goals or points, was -10 and had the second worst corsi rating of his career. In what way was that a career year?


Last edited by Scurr: 11-06-2012 at 04:31 PM.
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11-06-2012, 04:25 PM
  #446
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Luongo .919 $5.33/yr for 10yrs
Dubnyk .914 $3.5/yr for 2yrs

Huge difference there.
Vancouver has the third highest cap in the league at almost 68mill. Considering talk has been the cap will be going down to 60mill next year I really dont see how Vancouver is in great cap shape.
Agreed. And huge difference in performance too between Luongo and Dubnyk..
We'll see where the cap goes but we can easily get under the cap.


Last edited by vanwest: 11-06-2012 at 04:38 PM.
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Old
11-06-2012, 04:25 PM
  #447
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same reason Bozak and a 2nd is more than fair for Lou
Do Vancouver fans still not realize you need Lu gone? Its not like you can pay 2 goalies starting money from now on. The more you wait the lower Lu's value goes. There is a very good chance that contract will cause problems for who ever takes it on in the future.

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11-06-2012, 04:26 PM
  #448
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No thanks from a Canucks perspective. Value isn't good enough.
these threads are like groundhog day, but insead of living the same day over and over, you just sit up in bed and stick hot needles in your eyes all day

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11-06-2012, 04:29 PM
  #449
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Oh I get it! It is bad trade proposals day! well allow me to counter-offer my friend!

To Vancouver:

Scott Gomez and a first

To Montreal:

The last thing Roberto Luongo wore

A dirty napkin

Oh, and Mason Raymond.

Seriously though the original deal is mostly bad for vancouver. Vancouver is in a win now mode and they don't need a prospect like Finn. Their interests would be more of Franson and/or Liles and even that doesn't add up too Luongo. Gunnarsson+ for Luongo
+ makes more sense to me. (ps: no I don't want to get rid of Gunnar, just stating value)

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11-06-2012, 04:34 PM
  #450
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Originally Posted by RealisticLeaf55 View Post
Oh I get it! It is bad trade proposals day! well allow me to counter-offer my friend!

To Vancouver:

Scott Gomez and a first

To Montreal:

The last thing Roberto Luongo wore

A dirty napkin

Oh, and Mason Raymond.

Seriously though the original deal is mostly bad for vancouver. Vancouver is in a win now mode and they don't need a prospect like Finn. Their interests would be more of Franson and/or Liles and even that doesn't add up too Luongo. Gunnarsson+ for Luongo
+ makes more sense to me. (ps: no I don't want to get rid of Gunnar, just stating value)
We need forwards more than defensemen, so Kulemin would make more sense as a starting point(assuming JVR and Lupul are off the table).

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