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Ottawa: Draft success becomes team success

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Old
10-31-2012, 08:30 AM
  #1
MoreGore
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Ottawa: Draft success becomes team success

CBA talk is sucking the life out of me... so to switch it up..

1994 - Bonk, Neckar, Alfedsson
1995 - (Berard) - Redden
1996 - Phillips, Dackell, Salo
1997 - Hossa, Arvedson, Rachunek
1998 - Fisher, Neil
1999 - Havlat, Kelly
2000 - Volchenkov, Vermette
2001 - Spezza, Emery (Gleason and Laich )
--------
Those foundation years gave the team a solid foundation to compete and challenge for many years

Then the dry years...

2002 - Spongebob Squarepants
2003 - Eaves, Elliot
2004 - Meszaros
2005 - Lee, Greening
2006 - Foligno, Condra
2007 - O'Brien
--------

Which then lead to the last few dry years of on ice performance. Since 2008 Drafting has found some real gems...

2008 - Karlsson, Smith (Wiercioch, Boroweicki, Petersson)
2009 - Cowen, Silfverberg, Lehner, (Hoffman)
2010 - Turris (via trade for Rundblad), Stone
2011 - Zibanejad, and company
2012 - too early to tell.

-------
Moral of the story? The draft lag is about 4 years. If you draft well, your team will show it. If you draft poorly, you will soon be drafting higher, and hopefully better :p

This does not apply to all team based in Ontario

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10-31-2012, 09:08 AM
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BonkTastic
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There's a pattern here. See if you can find it:

1994: Randy Sexton - Bonk, Neckar, Alfedsson
1995: Randy Sexton - (Berard) - Redden
1996: Randy Sexton - Phillips, Dackell, Salo
1997: Pierre Gauthier - Hossa, Arvedson, Rachunek
1998: Pierre Gauthier - Fisher, Neil
1999: Marshall Johnston - Havlat, Kelly
2000: Marshall Johnston - Volchenkov, Vermette
2001: Marshall Johnston - Spezza, Emery (Gleason and Laich )
--------


Then the dry years...

2002: Marshall Johnston (on his way out the door) - Klepis, assorted garbage - though to be fair, 2002 was a pretty awful draft year.
2003: MUCKLER - Eaves, Elliot
2004: MUCKLER - Meszaros
2005: MUCKLER - Lee, Greening
2006: MUCKLER - Foligno, Condra
2007: Bryan Murray (using Muckler's scouts) - O'Brien
--------


Which then lead to the last few dry years of on ice performance. Since 2008 Drafting has found some real gems...

2008: Murray - Karlsson, Smith (Wiercioch, Boroweicki, Petersson)
2009: Murray - Cowen, Silfverberg, Lehner, (Hoffman)
2010: Murray - Turris (via trade for Rundblad), Stone
2011: Murray - Zibanejad, and company
2012: Murray - too early to tell.[/QUOTE]

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10-31-2012, 09:15 AM
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As you probably can tell, 2008 was also the first draft that was handled by Pierre Dorion and Tim Murray.

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10-31-2012, 09:25 AM
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If Karlsson played on the Leafs right now he'd be the next Bobby Orr.

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10-31-2012, 10:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BonkTastic View Post
There's a pattern here. See if you can find it:
Peter Regin (2004) and Kaspars Daugavins (2006) are missing from the Muckler picks.

I think the organization has made several development errors that make the Muckler era draft picks look worse than they otherwise might have been.

Muckler went hard after Russians at the draft table but never found a way to actually draw them to North America. His team failed to recognize the increasing tendency among mid-level Russian prospects to stay in Russia rather than attempt an arduous transition to North America and risk lower pay in the minors. This continued into the Murray era, when mid-level talents like Zubov and Nikulin came over and were met with limited confidence and poor communication from the organization.

If Russian kids were going to be so central to our team's draft strategy, we should have found better ways to make Ottawa and the NHL more appealing to them. Instead, we ended up with a slew of wasted picks, including a few second-rounders.

Mattias Karlsson was another Muckler pick who was a decent talent. He turned a lot of heads during his full year in Bingo, but for some reason decided to return to Sweden when he appeared on the cusp of seeing NHL callup action. The guy seemed to be more promising than Borowiecki or Wiercioch are now. I don't know what happened, but it's unfortunate that the organization let him get away.

Between Elliott, Condra and Greening, Muckler had a reasonable amount of success with late-round North Americans. This is largely due to their longer development time in college. By the time they were ready to join the team, we were rebuilding at their respective positions. Muckler's other prospects were younger guys trying to join a roster that was still bloated with expensive veterans and weighed down by unreasonably high expectations. Only the talented first-rounders could keep up, with the exception of Cody Bass, a pure checker who could go straight to the fourth line where expectations were much lower. Bass was on a good track for awhile until injuries derailed his career.

Bottom line: I think management made a number of mistakes during the Muckler and early Murray eras when it came to providing our draft prospects with the right conditions to succeed.

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10-31-2012, 10:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrawlFan View Post
If Karlsson played on the Leafs right now he'd be the next Bobby Orr.
There will never be another Bobby Orr.

He is, however, the first ever Karlsson. Years from now, we will be talking about who is the next Karlsson.

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10-31-2012, 10:20 AM
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If Karlsson played on the Leafs right now he'd be the next Bobby Orr.
He is the next Bobby Orr...and he plays on the Senators.

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10-31-2012, 10:28 AM
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Mattias Karlsson was another Muckler pick who was a decent talent. He turned a lot of heads during his full year in Bingo, but for some reason decided to return to Sweden when he appeared on the cusp of seeing NHL callup action. The guy seemed to be more promising than Borowiecki or Wiercioch are now. I don't know what happened, but it's unfortunate that the organization let him get away.
One of the better defensemen in the SEL now. Was just about to start a family back then and didn't want to risk that being in Binghamton.


Last edited by sg58: 10-31-2012 at 10:41 AM.
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10-31-2012, 11:13 AM
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One of the better defensemen in the SEL now. Was just about to start a family back then and didn't want to risk that being in Binghamton.
His heart wasn't in it while he was playing here in Binghamton. I see the same kind of attitude from Petersson last year and this year...

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10-31-2012, 01:10 PM
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If Karlsson played on the Leafs right now he'd be the next Bobby Orr.
Reilly's already holding that title. I'm serious, check their forum.

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10-31-2012, 01:14 PM
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One of the better defensemen in the SEL now. Was just about to start a family back then and didn't want to risk that being in Binghamton.
You can't fault a guy for that either, its not everyones be all end all goal to play in the NHL. For some people, making a good living at home and raising a family close to friends and family is more important.

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10-31-2012, 01:53 PM
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Reilly's already holding that title. I'm serious, check their forum.
i was just about to post this. i like to read the toronto and montreal prospect threads when i need a good laugh.

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10-31-2012, 02:11 PM
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I think its too soon to start saying guys like zibanejad, silfverberg, stone petterson, wiechioch etc.are all draft successes. wait a few years because im sure some of these guys are going to bomb. That isnt to say Murrays drafting isnt better then Mucklar, because, it sure as heck is!

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10-31-2012, 02:18 PM
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I think its too soon to start saying guys like zibanejad, silfverberg, stone petterson, wiechioch etc.are all draft successes. wait a few years because im sure some of these guys are going to bomb. That isnt to say Murrays drafting isnt better then Mucklar, because, it sure as heck is!
Agreed. At the moment these guys aren't doing too great down in Binghamton. I know it's a small sample size and i will reserve judgment, but the OP should too in regards to labelling them as NHL successes.

If there is one thing that rings true on HF, is that prospects will by hyped no matter what, every. single. year.

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10-31-2012, 02:20 PM
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I think its too soon to start saying guys like zibanejad, silfverberg, stone petterson, wiechioch etc.are all draft successes. wait a few years because im sure some of these guys are going to bomb. That isnt to say Murrays drafting isnt better then Mucklar, because, it sure as heck is!
Quote:
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Agreed. At the moment these guys aren't doing too great down in Binghamton. I know it's a small sample size and i will reserve judgment, but the OP should too in regards to labelling them as NHL successes.

If there is one thing that rings true on HF, is that prospects will by hyped no matter what, every. single. year.
After watching the level of talent through these years, bad and good. I can say that this crop of players has much more skill and raw talent than ever before.

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10-31-2012, 02:22 PM
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Agreed. At the moment these guys aren't doing too great down in Binghamton. I know it's a small sample size and i will reserve judgment, but the OP should too in regards to labelling them as NHL successes.

If there is one thing that rings true on HF, is that prospects will by hyped no matter what, every. single. year.
It's not only a small sample size but a premature one as well.

You wait well into the second half before you actually start getting worried, because a lot of guys who are new to the league get to that half way point and then explode. Not that they can't figure it out later, but it's just that it's almost common for it to take some time.

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10-31-2012, 02:28 PM
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After watching the level of talent through these years, bad and good. I can say that this crop of players has much more skill and raw talent than ever before.
Good to hear. I'm looking forward to watching one of their games when they have a healthy lineup.

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It's not only a small sample size but a premature one as well.

You wait well into the second half before you actually start getting worried, because a lot of guys who are new to the league get to that half way point and then explode. Not that they can't figure it out later, but it's just that it's almost common for it to take some time.
I agree completely. My point is that we need some NHL indication before making this kind of a judgement. A lacklustre 7 games of AHL time is clearly not enough.

O'Brien is just starting to carve out his niche and he was drafted in 2007. At the end of this year I'll be ready to pronounce judgement on the 2008 guys (save Karlsson, of course), but for 2009-2012, it is too early to tell. Unless you're a top talent, the road to the NHL is a process, and not a guaranteed result.

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11-01-2012, 10:22 AM
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He is the next Bobby Orr...and he plays on the Senators.
As the great Denis Potvin said "there are the Beatles and then there is everyone else, Bobby Orr is the Beatles"

I have no doubt that EK will be a generational talent but I doubt that it will ever be argued that he is the best player ever. Bobby Orr is considered the best player ever by many people.

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11-01-2012, 10:31 AM
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As the great Denis Potvin said "there are the Beatles and then there is everyone else, Bobby Orr is the Beatles"

I have no doubt that EK will be a generational talent but I doubt that it will ever be argued that he is the best player ever. Bobby Orr is considered the best player ever by many people.
You've also gotta be conscientious of the fact that in professional sports, the old guys are almost always better than the new guys. That goes for Orr, Unitas, Cobb, Ruth, Wilt, etc. You're likelihood to be considered a legend comes greater if you played in black and white.

The saying that "no one will ever be better than Orr" is true even if it's proven not to be true. Even if a better player comes along Orr will always be the legend that paved the way. There's no sense talking about someone these days being better.

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11-01-2012, 11:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Minister of Offence View Post
You've also gotta be conscientious of the fact that in professional sports, the old guys are almost always better than the new guys. That goes for Orr, Unitas, Cobb, Ruth, Wilt, etc. You're likelihood to be considered a legend comes greater if you played in black and white.

The saying that "no one will ever be better than Orr" is true even if it's proven not to be true. Even if a better player comes along Orr will always be the legend that paved the way. There's no sense talking about someone these days being better.
Orr right from the age of 14 was a phenom to the level of those we have not seen from a Dman. He scored more than a point a game as a 15 year old defenceman in junior hockey. I agree with your point about some of the older guys being "legends" just because it was far back in time - but Orr was a multi-generational talent compared to his peers. Right now there's only one guy (Crosby) who is a multi-generational talent.

Top 5 Point Per Game Leaders in NHL History
PPG
1. Wayne Gretzky* 1.921
2. Mario Lemieux* 1.883
3. Mike Bossy* 1.497
4. Sidney Crosby 1.403
5. Bobby Orr* 1.393

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11-01-2012, 01:18 PM
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Then the dry years...

2002 - Klepis (16)
2003 - Eaves (29), Elliot
2004 - Meszaros (23)
2005 - Lee (9), Greening
2006 - Foligno (28), Condra
2007 - O'Brien (29)
We drafted really well having low picks (except 2002). Eaves, Elliot, Lee, and Greening are solid NHLers which for many teams is too much to ask for. Meszaros and Foligno were ace picks, and O'Brien is at least an NHLer from a weak draft.

Since 1992, team failure became draft success, to team success and draft failure, and now team failure is leading to draft success. Team success is inversely proportional to draft success (obviously) but we still had relatively good drafting during the "dry" years, good enough drafting to say that our decline was probably due to something else (salary cap destroying our team).

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11-01-2012, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Minister of Offence View Post
You've also gotta be conscientious of the fact that in professional sports, the old guys are almost always better than the new guys. That goes for Orr, Unitas, Cobb, Ruth, Wilt, etc. You're likelihood to be considered a legend comes greater if you played in black and white.

The saying that "no one will ever be better than Orr" is true even if it's proven not to be true. Even if a better player comes along Orr will always be the legend that paved the way. There's no sense talking about someone these days being better.
Roger Federer.

Greatest of all time.

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11-01-2012, 01:35 PM
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We drafted really well having low picks (except 2002). Eaves, Elliot, Lee, and Greening are solid NHLers which for many teams is too much to ask for. Meszaros and Foligno were ace picks, and O'Brien is at least an NHLer from a weak draft.
None of those guys are top pairing d-men or legitimate top 6 players.

They obviously can fulfill a role, but you need talent coming through the system.

Some teams don't even have that, I'll grant you.

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11-01-2012, 01:56 PM
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Roger Federer.

Greatest of all time.
Lots easier to choose the best in an individual sport where wins actually are all that matter.

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11-01-2012, 02:05 PM
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I would say our team is one of the better drafting teams of the past few years. A lot of that has to do with low placements in the overall standings but also we've drafted smartly (Drafting one of the few good players to come out of the 1999 draft in Martin Havlat is an example of this).

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