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Old
11-08-2012, 10:34 PM
  #976
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
Anibal Sanchez wants a $90 million deal 6 yrs
lol, no thank you. Not even close.

Sanchez would be a nice addition... But the need for a top of the rotation starter is to important and we don't have the money to overpay for a mid rotation guy. AA will likely get us that big top of the rotation guy through trade and the second pitcher will be some sort of buy-low type deal like a Macarthy who will get something like a 3 year 20 million dollar deal or possibly even a 1 year deal so he can build more value for next off-season. I would even love Marcum back if he were interested in a reasonable deal. It would have to be a shorter term deal as in 3-4 years and sum around 9-10 per. He's to injury prone to warrant anything more. I wonder if that talk about Jays head office not liking Marcum's off field life style has any bit of truth to it.

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11-08-2012, 10:36 PM
  #977
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
Anibal Sanchez wants a $90 million deal 6 yrs
No chance the Jays sign him if thats what he goes for.

Kind of depressing that we prolly cant even sign a guy like Sanchez.

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11-08-2012, 10:36 PM
  #978
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90 mil over 6 years for Anibal Sanchez I could live with. 15 mil a season for a solid #2/#3 in the rotation is definately worth it.

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11-08-2012, 10:41 PM
  #979
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We need to go big for a FA pitcher and make a trade for a solid #2/3. Adding another bat and a starting second basemen is needed too.

I doubt this years team will be very good. I'm really not confident that AA will pull anything off.
We seriously need to break the bank and go for a solid starting pitcher: Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, James Shields or Kyle Lohse, maybe even Dan Haren. Not saying we'll get one of them, but we need to at least try - very hard. Then bring in a veteran LF, the best option imo would have to be Jason Bay, even though I really, really, really want Josh Hamilton, I think we'd have the best OF in the league (Hamilton - Rasmus - Bautista). Jason Bay will do though, as he's much more realistic.

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11-08-2012, 10:43 PM
  #980
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
Anibal Sanchez wants a $90 million deal 6 yrs
I can't see the Jays doing that. Maybe 5/70-75M if they try back loading the deal a little bit to have a bit more money to work with this season.

I think Jays are more likely to sign Edwin than Sanchez.

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This is why we likely won't compete in the AL East, yet again.

Prove me wrong AA + Rogers!!!
Because they haven't signed someone big? I wonder how Tampa and Orioles have managed to compete and win the division.

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11-08-2012, 10:47 PM
  #981
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
I can't see the Jays doing that. Maybe 5/70-75M if they try back loading the deal a little bit to have a bit more money to work with this season.

I think Jays are more likely to sign Edwin than Sanchez.



Because they haven't signed someone big? I wonder how Tampa and Orioles have managed to compete and win the division.
Ya I think Jackson is the most realistic target.

Something like 3 years for 33 million would be my guess.

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11-08-2012, 10:56 PM
  #982
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Originally Posted by UgotPHANEUFd View Post
90 mil over 6 years for Anibal Sanchez I could live with. 15 mil a season for a solid #2/#3 in the rotation is definately worth it.
god r u serious? Sanchez is a solid #3 on a contending team but thats it. A lot of these guys are good there first couple seasons than they fall of the earth... ala A.J Burnett. I would only sign a mid rotation starter to a short term deal like the Morrow deal (3 years 20 million) or a long term deal if it's at low yearly average (Romero's contract, 5 years, 30 million) The only exception I would make would be if the player has been in our system long enough that front office has complete faith in him. (like Romero) I would totally give a legitimate front line starter with can't miss stuff a blank cheque though. With those type of players, even when they struggle, they are above average. The rare case you have a guy like A.J Jimenez fall of the earth. Zach Greinke would be the only pitcher on the market I would give a long term deal too. Jackson and Sanchez will just be over paid. After that go for bargain type deals as a stop gap until your younger guys are ready to step in.


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11-08-2012, 10:57 PM
  #983
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We will see about Jeffress. He throws hard and has had a checkered past as mentioned here with the 2 suspensions. There's also a domestic assault charge that was later dropped, a disorderly conduct, assault and criminal damage. He had to serve 20 hours community service for the disorderly conduct charge and attend domestic violence counseling classes. We will see if he can get his head screwed on straight.

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11-08-2012, 11:03 PM
  #984
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Ya I think Jackson is the most realistic target.

Something like 3 years for 33 million would be my guess.
I'd do that deal too, its short and a fair price... However there will be a team that gives him 5 years at 13-15 million. At that point if i'm Alex i'm out.

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11-08-2012, 11:05 PM
  #985
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jake marisnick has just hit his first home run of the AFL, it was a do doubter, he looks like he is getting comfortable, breakout season next year in AA
Good to hear, and I think he's definitely set up for a big year. He's a notoriously slow adjuster, if that makes sense, in that he usually takes a while to get used to playing in a new league with better competition, but once he's adjusted, his skill takes over and he proves he's a legit prospect. Happened in Lansing, he was actually doing fairly well in his first go at Dunedin before being called up to NH. This is a big year for Jake.

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We seriously need to break the bank and go for a solid starting pitcher: Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, James Shields or Kyle Lohse, maybe even Dan Haren. Not saying we'll get one of them, but we need to at least try - very hard. Then bring in a veteran LF, the best option imo would have to be Jason Bay, even though I really, really, really want Josh Hamilton, I think we'd have the best OF in the league (Hamilton - Rasmus - Bautista). Jason Bay will do though, as he's much more realistic.

Hamels and Shields aren't FAs, Greinke is likely priced out of our reach at $20M+ and unlikely to want to come here, and Lohse is going to get more years and dollars than he deserves, and is already 34...Haren is the only realistic pitching option you listed. As for LFs, Bay was good 4 years ago, not anymore, not as a MLB starting LF, that's why the Mets paid him $21M to not play for them anymore and Hamilton is chasing $$$ with his history, not a good formula for success for his new team.

Breaking the bank would be nice, but you have to be realistic and realize we're not going to dish out $200-million this winter, we've got to be smart about where our money's going and avoid terrible contracts like the plague. A couple poor contracts that overpay a guy a bit are ok (Anibal Sanchez getting an extra year on a deal that pays him $15M per, for example, is something AA might have to consider, though I doubt he'll go past 75/5 for him), as long as you have more guys who are giving you better value than their contracts (Bautista, EE, Yunel, Lawrie while he's still cheap, Morrow, etc.)

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11-08-2012, 11:10 PM
  #986
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I wonder if AA will look at Swisher for the LF spot. His numbers are a bit inflated from playing in NY, but he's a 4 WAR player. Although he'd be a nice switch hitter behind EE in the 5 spot, I'm afraid of what his contact demands are.

I'm also a bit concerned about whether he's a good team guy or a bit of a head case. He always seems really buddy-buddy with his teammates, but I wonder what they actually think of the guy.
Memories of swisher in rf post season :laugh all I can remember. It was a bit of a circus.

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Old
11-08-2012, 11:13 PM
  #987
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Originally Posted by RayzorIsDull View Post
We will see about Jeffress. He throws hard and has had a checkered past as mentioned here with the 2 suspensions. There's also a domestic assault charge that was later dropped, a disorderly conduct, assault and criminal damage. He had to serve 20 hours community service for the disorderly conduct charge and attend domestic violence counseling classes. We will see if he can get his head screwed on straight.
Sounds like we traded for the Wild Thing lol



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11-08-2012, 11:23 PM
  #988
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Originally Posted by Bozak View Post
lol, no thank you. Not even close.

Sanchez would be a nice addition... But the need for a top of the rotation starter is to important and we don't have the money to overpay for a mid rotation guy. AA will likely get us that big top of the rotation guy through trade and the second pitcher will be some sort of buy-low type deal like a Macarthy who will get something like a 3 year 20 million dollar deal or possibly even a 1 year deal so he can build more value for next off-season. I would even love Marcum back if he were interested in a reasonable deal. It would have to be a shorter term deal as in 3-4 years and sum around 9-10 per. He's to injury prone to warrant anything more. I wonder if that talk about Jays head office not liking Marcum's off field life style has any bit of truth to it.
Sanchez is a legitimate #2 by any definition, not a mid-rotation starter. Furthermore, 15M is not unreasonable for a starter of his caliber, in fact it is slightly less than what I thought he would demand.

Six years is one more year than I would prefer to commit, but such is the nature of FA.

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11-08-2012, 11:25 PM
  #989
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
I think Jays are more likely to sign Edwin than Sanchez.
I concur, I also think the Jays are a lock to sign Jackson, just like I thought they were a lock to sign Izturis. It makes a little bit too much sense from a needs and dollars perspective.

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Old
11-08-2012, 11:30 PM
  #990
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I don't mind the Izturis signing at all but I haven't gotten myself to like a potential Edwin Jackson to Toronto scenario. I don't know why.

I'd much rather sign a guy like Brandon McCarthy if he is healthy.

I know its a long shot but Kuroda is such a great fit on our team. He's willing to take a shorter term deal if the dollars are there and he fits exactly on a timeline when most of our high upside youngsters will be ready to contribute in the majors.

Morrow
Kuroda
Romero
McCarthy
Alvarez

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11-08-2012, 11:32 PM
  #991
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Jays SS in 2013 ?

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Old
11-08-2012, 11:53 PM
  #992
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Originally Posted by Scion View Post
Sanchez is a legitimate #2 by any definition, not a mid-rotation starter. Furthermore, 15M is not unreasonable for a starter of his caliber, in fact it is slightly less than what I thought he would demand.

Six years is one more year than I would prefer to commit, but such is the nature of FA.
Theres no definition of what a number #2 is, but I would not want him to be my teams 2nd best pitcher. He's a number 2 on a good team but not elite. When looking at the elite pitching staffs he doesn't compare. If Sanchez is your number 3, your staff is pretty elite. If he's your number 2, your probably not going to the world series. That's where we want to be. Thats why in my definition he is not a number 2.

Do you think Sanchez could be a number 2 on the Rays? The Giants? The Rangers? The Reds? Phillies? Cards? hell even the tigers? Yes this a high measure but this is where want to be at.

However, it is not the price I'm most concerned with, it's the term.


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11-08-2012, 11:54 PM
  #993
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Originally Posted by Scion View Post
I concur, I also think the Jays are a lock to sign Jackson, just like I thought they were a lock to sign Izturis. It makes a little bit too much sense from a needs and dollars perspective.
Me too. Jays showed some aggressiveness in getting this done as well. AA said that because he was willing to add another year, he was able to get the deal done quickly. I think Jays will do the same thing with one of the pitchers and I think Edwin is that guy. Seems to fit in their price range, throws hard, eats innings and can be a mid-rotation starter.

I also don't think Edwin Jackson value is as high as some think. He didn't even receive a qualifying offer from Nats so I certainly don't think any team is going to give him 12-13M, perhaps not even 11M. I don't know how much this might be a factor, if at all but he's played for 7 different teams so far in his career (you can make it 8 if you consider going to the Jays for a short little while) and I think it says something when there hasn't been a team that decided to just keep him and say no, we like him, he has upside, eats innings and a mid rotation starter. I think the FA market is also stronger than it was last year and he only got a 1 year deal last year. Wasn't particularly outstanding either as he posted an ERA of 4.03 and his lowest WAR since 2008.

I think he ends up with 9-10M over 3-4 years though.

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11-09-2012, 12:09 AM
  #994
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Since 2010, 351 position players have batted at least 600 times. In terms of WAR/600 PA, Izturis comes in at 2.3, basically dead even with guys like Colby Rasmus, Jeff Keppinger, and Michael Morse. While I know this is practically trolling, Derek Jeter‘s WAR/600 PA since 2010 is 2.4. Quibble all you want about the defensive inputs, but the general point is that Izturis has been just fine for a while, and he’s not so old that he should fall apart. There’s a pretty good chance he’s better than his 2012.

And there’s something else to consider. Angel Stadium is a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Izturis is not a power hitter, so one wouldn’t intuitively expect him to feel the park effects as much as someone else. Izturis’ numbers, like wRC+, are park-adjusted. But Izturis first played for the Angels in 2005, and batted nearly 2800 times. Here are his home and road splits:

Home: .276/.336/.363
Road: .277/.342/.404


On the road, over a similar number of plate appearances, Izturis hit 13 more doubles, three more triples, and 13 more homers. His road .127 ISO was 46 percent higher than his home .087 ISO. No version of Maicer Izturis is a power-hitting version of Maicer Izturis, but there’s evidence to suggest he and Angel Stadium weren’t besties, and so Toronto could make for a better home. Fly balls that used to die on or in front of the Anaheim track might now go for hits. At least a few of them.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...tly-acceptable

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11-09-2012, 12:33 AM
  #995
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
Me too. Jays showed some aggressiveness in getting this done as well. AA said that because he was willing to add another year, he was able to get the deal done quickly. I think Jays will do the same thing with one of the pitchers and I think Edwin is that guy. Seems to fit in their price range, throws hard, eats innings and can be a mid-rotation starter.

I also don't think Edwin Jackson value is as high as some think. He didn't even receive a qualifying offer from Nats so I certainly don't think any team is going to give him 12-13M, perhaps not even 11M. I don't know how much this might be a factor, if at all but he's played for 7 different teams so far in his career (you can make it 8 if you consider going to the Jays for a short little while) and I think it says something when there hasn't been a team that decided to just keep him and say no, we like him, he has upside, eats innings and a mid rotation starter. I think the FA market is also stronger than it was last year and he only got a 1 year deal last year. Wasn't particularly outstanding either as he posted an ERA of 4.03 and his lowest WAR since 2008.

I think he ends up with 9-10M over 3-4 years though.
This is the type of deal that makes more sense for us, especially at those figures

I've heard people suggest 5 years at 13-14 million a year for Jackson. No way would Alex do that.

3 years - 33 million. 11 million each year, back load it if you have too. You give him a little bit more money on a shorter term. Term is the biggest factor.

In 3 years you won't even want him... let alone in 4 or 5 years. With Hutchinson, Drabek, Syndergard, Sanchez, Nicolino etc coming through our system and fighting for roster spots in the near future, having 11 million tied up in Jackson in a 4th or 5th year of a contract could be a huge problem. In 2-3 years Jackson likely won't even be top 5 on our depth cart. Jackson in a best case scenario would be #4 this year, assuming Alex can trade for a pitcher this year that could slide in as a 1 or a 2. If he's our 4th ranked pitcher for the start of the season (i'm talking as if we already signed him) it's not hard to imagine two of our young arms passing him by 2015, actually it is pretty likely considering we have a top 3 farm system, in which like 7 out of 10 or something are pitchers. Long term contracts just handcuff what you can or can't do and takes away flexibility. AA can't stress this enough.

Jackson on a 3 year deal makes sense... Jackson at anything more is playing with fire.

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11-09-2012, 12:34 AM
  #996
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Theres no definition of what a number #2 is, but I would not want him to be my teams 2nd best pitcher.
Sure there is...

From a statistical standpoint, a #2 is defined as someone who posts an ERA in the following range:

Quote:
#2 Starter: 3.56-3.91 ERA (Average of 3.74 ERA)
http://battlingbucs.wordpress.com/20...rting-pitcher/

From a traditional scouting standpoint, a #2 SP is defined as someone who possesses two plus-plus offerings, and a third average to plus offering.

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He's a number 2 on a good team but not elite. When looking at the elite pitching staffs he doesn't compare. If Sanchez is your number 3, your staff is pretty elite. If he's your number 2, your probably not going to the world series. That's where we want to be. Thats why in my definition he is not a number 2.
Your post implies that a team can only have a single #2 SP, that is simply untrue. Some teams have multiple front end starters, such as the: Rays, Phillies and Tigers. Similarly, multiple teams have no front end starters, such as the: Orioles, Royals, Rockies and Royals. Would you classify Roy Halladay as a #3 starter because he is third in the Phillies rotation, or Jeremy Guthrie an ace because he is the #1 starter on the Royals? Of course not, so why would you classify Sanchez as a mid rotation starter despite objective evidence to the contrary?

Quote:
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Do you think Sanchez could be a number 2 on the Rays? The Giants? The Rangers? The Reds? Phillies? Cards? hell even the tigers? Yes this a high measure but this is where want to be at.
Statistically speaking, Sanchez would have been the #2 SP on the: Cardinals, Rangers, and Reds last season, and co-ace of the Giants (with respect to fWAR).

Quote:
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However, it is not the price I'm most concerned with, it's the term.
I'm not too worried, it is extremely rare that a SP gets a 5 year term on the FA market. In fact, only 5 SP in the last 5 years have received a 5 year term as a free agent, those pitchers are: Burnett, Sabathia, Lackey, Lee and Wilson. Only one of those pitchers got a term exceeding 5 yers, CC Sabathia.

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11-09-2012, 12:41 AM
  #997
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
Me too. Jays showed some aggressiveness in getting this done as well. AA said that because he was willing to add another year, he was able to get the deal done quickly. I think Jays will do the same thing with one of the pitchers and I think Edwin is that guy. Seems to fit in their price range, throws hard, eats innings and can be a mid-rotation starter.

I also don't think Edwin Jackson value is as high as some think. He didn't even receive a qualifying offer from Nats so I certainly don't think any team is going to give him 12-13M, perhaps not even 11M. I don't know how much this might be a factor, if at all but he's played for 7 different teams so far in his career (you can make it 8 if you consider going to the Jays for a short little while) and I think it says something when there hasn't been a team that decided to just keep him and say no, we like him, he has upside, eats innings and a mid rotation starter. I think the FA market is also stronger than it was last year and he only got a 1 year deal last year. Wasn't particularly outstanding either as he posted an ERA of 4.03 and his lowest WAR since 2008.

I think he ends up with 9-10M over 3-4 years though.
3 years/30M is my guess, and I would be happy to pay it. Edwin Jackson is a very underrated SP, and with him you know what you are getting. His advanced metrics are almost identical over the last 3 seasons, and his velocity is stable over that time as well. Both positive signs.

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11-09-2012, 12:46 AM
  #998
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Originally Posted by Bozak View Post
This is the type of deal that makes more sense for us, especially at those figures

I've heard people suggest 5 years at 13-14 million a year for Jackson. No way would Alex do that.

3 years - 33 million. 11 million each year, back load it if you have too. You give him a little bit more money on a shorter term. Term is the biggest factor.

In 3 years you won't even want him... let alone in 4 or 5 years. With Hutchinson, Drabek, Syndergard, Sanchez, Nicolino etc coming through our system and fighting for roster spots in the near future, having 11 million tied up in Jackson in a 4th or 5th year of a contract could be a huge problem. In 2-3 years Jackson likely won't even be top 5 on our depth cart. Jackson in a best case scenario would be #4 this year, assuming Alex can trade for a pitcher this year that could slide in as a 1 or a 2. If he's our 4th ranked pitcher for the start of the season (i'm talking as if we already signed him) it's not hard to imagine two of our young arms passing him by 2015, actually it is pretty likely considering we have a top 3 farm system, in which like 7 out of 10 or something are pitchers. Long term contracts just handcuff what you can or can't do and takes away flexibility. AA can't stress this enough.

Jackson on a 3 year deal makes sense... Jackson at anything more is playing with fire.
If Edwin Jackson is the Blue Jays 4th best SP next season then they have an elite rotation. I think it's more likely that Edwin Jackson is the Jays second best SP next season (assuming he signs), or third best if Ricky Romero can regain his 2010 form.


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11-09-2012, 01:28 AM
  #999
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If Edwin Jackson is the Blue Jays 4th best SP next season than they have an elite rotation. I think it's more likely that Edwin Jackson is the Jays second best SP next season (assuming he signs), or third best if Ricky Romero can regain his 2010 form.
If Jackson is our 2nd best best pitcher next year that would be a catastrophe

Jackson was the 5th starter for the Nationals last season, if he's our 2nd best pitcher we aren't even coming close next season.

You look around the majors, and some teams are so stacked it's ridiculous. You look at the Nationals and they practically have 3 aces. (according to your dumb website)

I'm hoping and predicting it works out to something this:


Trade
Morrow
Romero
Jackson
Happ


This is what is expected... You shouldn't have your standards so low. He's publicly stated his first priority is the rotation several times... He also has stated the trade route could be the best option, as he did last year too.


Regarding our previous discussion - Those numbers that suggest a player can be a 1,2,3,4,5, in a rotation is just one opinion. When Romero had that amazing season in 2011 in which he posted an era of .292 he was never defined as an ace. Some people considered him one, others didn't.

Clearly you put a lot of validity into Statistics but statistics aren't everything... Anyone with a brain knows Latos is certainly a better pitcher than Sanchez, therefore holds more value. Last year anyways since thats all your referring too. No one would ever suggest Sanchez could be a co-ace of the Giants... that's moronic. Since you only seem to be referring to last year, Bumgarner and Cain are superior to Sanchez. They're better pitchers.


In regards to this:

Your post implies that a team can only have a single #2 SP, that is simply untrue. Some teams have multiple front end starters, such as the: Rays, Phillies and Tigers. Similarly, multiple teams have no front end starters, such as the: Orioles, Royals, Rockies and Royals. Would you classify Roy Halladay as a #3 starter because he is third in the Phillies rotation, or Jeremy Guthrie an ace because he is the #1 starter on the Royals? Of course not, so why would you classify Sanchez as a mid rotation starter despite objective evidence to the contrary?

I was just stating in my opinion Sanchez is more suited as a number 3 on a good team. And again, there is no true definition of a mid rotation starter versus a number 2 starter. In my opinion Sanchez is a number 3 on an elite team. My thinking is if he's your 3rd best pitcher you have a pretty damn good rotation, and thats the just of it. In your opinion, you base your philosophy on set era's from a Pirates website


Last edited by HappyGilmourr: 11-09-2012 at 01:34 AM.
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11-09-2012, 01:46 AM
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