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Mathletic's Top 210 Prospects for the 2013 NHL Draft (Q1) + Mock Draft

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Old
11-05-2012, 10:59 PM
  #26
Mathletic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sweech View Post
Have you adjusted your calculations over the past few years? Based on what you've been able to successfully/unsuccessfully been able to project.
For each pick I compare the player selected by an NHL team to the top player on my list at that position. For example, at n'125 in the 2003, Konstantin Volkov was selected by an NHL team, at that position my top forward listed was Troy Brouwer. I have different metrics to compare the 2 players but I'll leave it at the number of games played. I compared the number of games played by each player and if the player on my list has played more games I add a success, if not a loss or simply a tie when the 2 haven't done anything.

I have yet compiled the results for every draft. I'm still working on a bunch of leagues. For example, nowadays teams rarely draft out of the NCAA whereas in 03 and prior to that, it happened frequently. So, I don't have the full results but overall, pending on the metric results oscillate around 60%. That is 60% of the time, the top player on my list did better than the actual pick.

On average in the NHL, the team selecting first does 52% better than the next. That is, say in 2012. Nail Yaukov was selected ahead of Alex Galchenyuk at the forward position. Well, if we took the whole list for forwards, d-men and goalies roughly 52% of the time the team picking the first would have the better player.

I'm compiling a list to compare my draft picks. I took the 20th spot of the first round, and kept that spot for the subsequent rounds. For example, in 2004 the Devils had the 20th overall pick. I gave myself the 20th, 50th, 86th, 119th pick and so on for the draft since 2002. Here are the results I'm getting so far.

Remember, the list doesn't contain all players available yet. For example, I don't have all the data I need for Junior A players in Canada for 02, so I simply removed those players from my list.

The player next to the n' is the number the model would suggest drafting based on value alone. NHL would be the player selected by the NHL team at shat spot and CSS would be the top player on the North American Skaters list suggested by the Central Scouting.


2009

20 - Tyson Barrie, D, Kelowna Rockets, WHL
NHL: Jacob Josefson
CSS: Jordan Schroeder

51 - Casey Cizikas, C, Mississauga St. Michael's Majors, OHL
NHL: Brian Dumoulin
CSS: Ryan Button

81 - Brett Flemming, D, Mississauga St. Michael's Majors, OHL
NHL: Adam Morrison
CSS: Cody Eakin

111 - Collin Bowman, D, Kelowna Rockets, WHL
NHL: Henrik Bjorklund
CSS: Seth Helgeson

140 - Gabriel Bourque, LW, Baie-Comeau Drakkar, LHJMQ
NHL: Scott Stajcer
CSS: Gabriel Lemieux

170 - Patrick Cehlin, RW, Djurgårdens IF, SuperElit, Sweden
NHL: Daniel Maggio
CSS: Danny Mattson

200 - Adam Almquist, D, HV71, SuperElit, Sweden
NHL: Mikhail Pashnin
CSS: Brennan Yadlowski


2008

20 - Jordan Eberle, C, Regina Pats, WHL
NHL: Michael Del Zotto
CSS: Colby Robak

51 - Michael Hutchinson, G, Barrie Colts, OHL
NHL: Derek Stepan
CSS: Jamie Arniel

81 - Adam Henrique, C, Windsor Spitfires, OHL
NHL: Corey Fienhage
CSS: Matt Calvert

111 - Chris Doyle, C, Prince Edward Island Rocket, LHJMQ
NHL: Dale Weise
CSS: Kruise Reddick

141 - Mark Barberio, D, Moncton Wildcats, LHJMQ
NHL: Chris Doyle
CSS: Joel Broda

171 - Tyler Johnson, C, Spokane Chiefs, WHL
NHL: Mitch Gaulton
CSS: Nathan Condon

201 - Mike Cichy, C, Tri-City Storm, USHL
NHL: Jani Lajunen
CSS: Brodie Reid


2007

20 - Jonathon Blum, D, Vancouver Giants, WHL
NHL: Angelo Esposito
CSS: Angelo Esposito

51 - Spencer Machacek, RW, Vancouver Giants, WHL
NHL: Keven Veilleux
CSS: Oscar Moller

81 - Jamie Benn, C, Victoria Grizzlies, BCHL
NHL: Ryan Thang
CSS: Ben Ryan

111 - Christopher DiDomenico, C, Saint John Sea Dogs, LHJMQ
NHL: Luca Caputi
CSS: David Skokan

141 - Mickey Renaud, C, Windsor Spitfires, OHL
NHL: Jake Muzzin
CSS: Matt Fillier

171 - Gustav Nyquist, LW, IF Malmö Redhawks, SuperElit, Sweden
NHL: Dustin Jeffrey
CSS: Zack Torquato

201 - Jared Spurgeon, D, Spokane Chiefs, WHL
NHL: Justin Braun
CSS: Paul Postma


2006

20 - Claude Giroux, RW, Gatineau Olympiques, LHJMQ
NHL: David Fischer
CSS: Cory Emmerton

49 - Mathieu Carle, D, Acadie-Bathurst Titan, LHJMQ
NHL: Ben Maxwell
CSS: Nigel Williams

79 - Dustin Jeffrey, C, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, OHL
NHL: Jonathan Matsumoto
CSS: Ben Shutron

109 - Carl Hagelin, LW, Södertälje SK, SuperElit, Sweden
NHL: Jakub Kovar
CSS: Bobby Hughes

139 - Erik Gustafsson, D, Timrå, SuperElit, Sweden
NHL: Pavel Valentenko
CSS: Graham Potuer

169 - Justin Azevedo, C, Kitchener Rangers, OHL
NHL: Chris Auger
CSS: Benjamin Breault

199 - Jean-Christophe Blanchard, G, Victoriaville Tigres, LHJMQ
NHL: Cameron Cepek
CSS: Victor Bartley


2005

20 - Tuukka Rask, G, Ilves Tampere, SM-Liiga, Finland
NHL: Kenndal McArdle
CSS: Kenndal McArdle

41 - Guillaume Latendresse, RW, Drummondville Voltigeurs, LHJMQ
NHL: Ondrej Pavelec
CSS: Mike Blunden

81 - Ryan Wilson, D, Toronto St. Michael's Majors, OHL
NHL: Danny Syvret
CSS: Dan Collins

102 - Mathieu Aubin, C, Lewiston MAINEiacs, LHJMQ
NHL: Blair Jones
CSS: Vyacheslav Trukhno

152 - Alec Martinez, D, Cedar Rapids RoughRiders, USHL
NHL: Josh Beaulieu
CSS: Nick Drazenovic

174 - Kyle Cumiskey, D, Kelowna Rockets, WHL
NHL: John Flatters
CSS: Paul Kurceba

215 - Sébastien Bisaillon, D, Val d'Or Foreurs, LHJMQ
NHL: Matt Clackson
CSS: Christian Hanson


2004

20 - Wojtek Wolski, LW, Brampton Battalion, OHL
NHL: Travis Zajac
CSS: Wojtek Wolski

50 - Brandon Dubisnky, C, Portland Winter Hawks, WHL
NHL: Enver Lisin
CSS: Kyle Wharton

86 - Mike Card, D, Kelowna Rockets, WHL
NHL: John Lammers
CSS: Wes O'Neill

119 - Ryan Pottruff, D, London Knights, OHL
NHL: Kevin Porter
CSS: Peter Tsimikalis

153 - Jean-Claude Sawyer, D, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles, LHJMQ
NHL: Steven Zalewski
CSS: Craig Voakes

183 - Patrick Kaleta, RW, Peterborough Petes, OHL
NHL: Trevor Ludwig
CSS: Brian Ihnacak

218 - Karri Rämö, G, Pelicans, Jr. A SM-liiga, Finland
NHL: Sergei Kukushkin
CSS: Blair Yaworski

248 - David Desharnais, C, Chicoutimi Saguenéens, LHJMQ
NHL: Lukas Vomela
CSS: Jan Steber

280 - Cédrick Desjardins, G, Rimouski Océanics, LHJMQ
NHL: Matt McKnight
CSS: Steve Birnstill


2003

20 - Corey Perry, RW, London Knights, OHL
NHL: Brent Burns
CSS: Dan Fritsche

56 - Louis-Philippe Martin, RW, Baie-Comeau Drakkar, LHJMQ
NHL: Patrick O'Sullivan
CSS: Patrick O'Sullivan

91 - Kyle Quincey, D, London Knights, OHL
NHL: Martin Sagat
CSS: Alexandre Bolduc

125 - Troy Brouwer, RW, Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL
NHL: Konstantin Volkov
CSS: Ryan Oulahen

157 - Bruno Gervais, D, Acadie-Bathurst Titan, LHJMQ
NHL: Marcin Kolusz
CSS: Louis-Philippe Martin

187 - Dustin Byfuglien, D, Prince George Cougars, WHL
NHL: Miroslav Kopriva
CSS: Jeremy Williams

219 - Tobias Enström, D, MODO, Elitserien, Sweden
NHL: Adam Courchaine
CSS: Jean-Michel Bolduc

251 - Benoit Mondou, RW, Shawinigan Cataractes, LHJMQ
NHL: Mathieu Melanson
CSS: Evan Shaw

281 - Ryan Callahan, RW, Guelph Storm, OHL
NHL: Jean-Michel Bolduc
CSS: John Vigilante


2002

20 - Trevor Daley, D, Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, OHL
NHL: Daniel Paille

53 - James Wisniewski, D, Plymouth Whalers, OHL
NHL: Barry Tallackson

85 - Ian White, D, Swift Current Broncos, WHL
NHL: Ahren Nittel

117 - André Benoit, D, Kitchener Rangers, OHL
NHL: Cam Janssen

154 - Chris Campoli, D, Erie Otters, OHL
NHL: Krisjanis Redlihs

187 - Derek Meech, D, Red Deer Rebels, WHL
NHL: Eric Johansson

217 - Brad Topping, G, Brampton Battalion, OHL
NHL: Tim Conboy

250 - Josh Gorges, D, Kelowna Rockets, WHL
NHL: Dan Glover

281 - Henrik Karlsson, G, Hammarby, SuperElit, Sweden
NHL: Bill Kinkel


Last edited by Mathletic: 11-05-2012 at 11:24 PM.
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Old
11-05-2012, 11:04 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bure View Post
Nichushkin that low? Zadarov 46? Care to explain, thanks
I've never been that high on Nichushkin. I thought people made way too much of his U17 performance. Even though he surely was impressive, still think people put way too much stock on those performances. Several people have dominated that tournament and never ended playing in the NHL.

Also, I've been following the Nichushkin thread on the prospects board and there are other Russian posters who aren't that high on him. Basically an all tools but no toolbox kinda player.

I thought Nikolai Prokhorkin was way better at that point last year and he ended up in the 4th round as a comparison.

I liked Zadorov, kinda guy who gets shafted a bit in my rankings generally in that he's a stay-at-home guy who won't do much offensively but given the proper role will do great. That said, even though Button has him somewhere in his top 10, some people who follow the OHL clearly don't think as highly. He's probably more talented than where I have him but probably not worthy of a top 10 grade either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckJet View Post
Whoever gets Carrier at 51 is the luckiest/smartest team in the league. That's like drafting Radek Faksa in the middle of the second round. Seriously...does anyone watch this kid?

Didn't even notice how low Ristolainen, Zadorov, Burakovsky, and Nicushkin are...

lol. Best thing about this thread is seeing 210 eligible prospects in one place.
I don't really buy the Faksa comparison. Radek Faksa was a terrific rookie last year. I had him in my top 10 or close to last year. William Carrier is a 3rd year player getting all the big minutes on a weak club. I don't want to diminish what he is doing but I don't see the comparison with Faksa.

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11-05-2012, 11:08 PM
  #28
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What about Jakob Della Rose?

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11-05-2012, 11:16 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathletic View Post
7 - Anthony Duclair, LW, Québec Remparts, LHJMQ
I'm not seeing him that high yet...
Quote:
51 - William Carrier, LW, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles, LHJMQ
Some are high on the Carrier train, other ren't... His game tonight, and the last couple in the Q haven't been great... He'll need to step it up to be a 1st rounder.

Good list otherwise.

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11-05-2012, 11:16 PM
  #30
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What about Jakob Della Rose?
I have him at 87 for now. I'd compare him somewhat to Carl Klingberg. Not a very high ceiling but likely to reach his potential as a defensive/grinder type of player.

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11-06-2012, 12:08 AM
  #31
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Mathletic, by your rankings, is it safe to assume that you take birthday into significant consideration?

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11-06-2012, 12:12 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Mathletic View Post
I've never been that high on Nichushkin. I thought people made way too much of his U17 performance. Even though he surely was impressive, still think people put way too much stock on those performances. Several people have dominated that tournament and never ended playing in the NHL.

Also, I've been following the Nichushkin thread on the prospects board and there are other Russian posters who aren't that high on him. Basically an all tools but no toolbox kinda player.

I thought Nikolai Prokhorkin was way better at that point last year and he ended up in the 4th round as a comparison.

I liked Zadorov, kinda guy who gets shafted a bit in my rankings generally in that he's a stay-at-home guy who won't do much offensively but given the proper role will do great. That said, even though Button has him somewhere in his top 10, some people who follow the OHL clearly don't think as highly. He's probably more talented than where I have him but probably not worthy of a top 10 grade either.



I don't really buy the Faksa comparison. Radek Faksa was a terrific rookie last year. I had him in my top 10 or close to last year. William Carrier is a 3rd year player getting all the big minutes on a weak club. I don't want to diminish what he is doing but I don't see the comparison with Faksa.
Not a comparison. Just value-wise. The kid is top 6 forward in the future in my eyes. From what I've seen. And why is being a third year player a bad thing? He's 17 scoring like a mad man without any offensive support.

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11-06-2012, 12:32 AM
  #33
Mathletic
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
Mathletic, by your rankings, is it safe to assume that you take birthday into significant consideration?
sure do. Obviously not the end of it all but it has to be taken into consideration. In the same draft you get players born late August, early September who might be rookies coming from overseas compared to third year late-birthdays compared to one another. Extreme example but still.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckJet View Post
Not a comparison. Just value-wise. The kid is top 6 forward in the future in my eyes. From what I've seen. And why is being a third year player a bad thing? He's 17 scoring like a mad man without any offensive support.
It's not that being a 3rd-year player is a bad thing. It's the same idea brought up by TheJuxtaposer in the previous post. Age plays a role. Not only age but experience as well. A player in his 3rd year could be almost a year older than some other players. That 3rd year player is expected to be a more dominant player because of his experience, body strength, knowing the opposition, used to the schedule and everything that goes with it. I'm not arguing that William Carrier isn't having a good year. He's having a terrific year. All I'm saying is that other players project better at this point than he does. I'll give you Jesse Lees as an example. Kid was born September 14. That's almost a year younger than Carrier. Up to this point Lees' career curve is trending higher than Carrier's.

That said, I could be way off on Carrier. Maybe he's worth of a higher grade. My thing is deterministic.

I'll give you some example of late-birthdays with similar career curve to that of Carrier.

Cory Urquhart, Alex Bourret, Rico Fata (not a late-birthday per say but similar scenario), Josh Bailey, Nazem Kadri, Tyler Ennis and Curtis Hamilton after a quick search.


Last edited by Mathletic: 11-06-2012 at 12:44 AM.
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11-06-2012, 02:39 AM
  #34
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Interesting list... How about Ryan Fitzgerald?

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11-06-2012, 02:46 AM
  #35
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The team that gets Wennberg at 208 will be really happy, he is a very impressive player. Not many guys in this draft can skate better than him. I would not be surprised to see him in the first round on draft day.

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11-06-2012, 05:12 AM
  #36
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Drouin's never played center before, people just think he'll do well there...
Wasn't he centre before arriving in Halifax? I've read that in this section from numerous people...

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11-06-2012, 09:51 AM
  #37
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Ristolainen at 44 is just WOW. J.Subban does not have enough skill to make up for his lack of size on D for any sane GM to draft him 23rd overall.

Spencer Martin is much more talented then Fucale...

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11-06-2012, 11:16 AM
  #38
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Drouin's never played center before, people just think he'll do well there...
He played center in Midget and was drafted by the Mooseheads as a centerman

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11-06-2012, 01:09 PM
  #39
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Interesting list... How about Ryan Fitzgerald?
I haven't included EJHL prospects so far either. That's why he's not on the list.



Quote:
Originally Posted by perry2perry View Post
The team that gets Wennberg at 208 will be really happy, he is a very impressive player. Not many guys in this draft can skate better than him. I would not be surprised to see him in the first round on draft day.
I believe I forgot his stats from Allsvenskan this year. Probably explains why he ends up so low.

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11-06-2012, 01:12 PM
  #40
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How about Austin Cangelosi?

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11-06-2012, 01:20 PM
  #41
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How about Austin Cangelosi?
I have not included undrafted prospects from previous drafts either. In my next version I should add them in. He will be on there somewhere. I had him fairly high last year despite his size. Corbett and Myles Bell should be on the list as well.

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11-06-2012, 01:30 PM
  #42
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I have not included undrafted prospects from previous drafts either. In my next version I should add them in. He will be on there somewhere. I had him fairly high last year despite his size. Corbett and Myles Bell should be on the list as well.
Do you think he will be drafted this year?

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11-06-2012, 01:46 PM
  #43
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Do you think he will be drafted this year?
Last year, I thought someone would take a flyer on him in the 7th round. That said, I'm not sure he'll get drafted again this year. He'll have to show at the NCAA level he can play aganist bigger and faster opponents. If he does so, he'll probably end up like Tynan and get drafted in the 3rd round 2 years from now.

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11-06-2012, 01:50 PM
  #44
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Last year, I thought someone would take a flyer on him in the 7th round. That said, I'm not sure he'll get drafted again this year. He'll have to show at the NCAA level he can play aganist bigger and faster opponents. If he does so, he'll probably end up like Tynan and get drafted in the 3rd round 2 years from now.
That sucks. Do you know if anyone else from Youngstown has a shot at being drafted?

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11-06-2012, 01:54 PM
  #45
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That sucks. Do you know if anyone else from Youngstown has a shot at being drafted?
Then again it's only my opinion, I don't have inside info that leads me to think this way

No I don't think anyone else from Youngstown is getting drafted outside of Cangelosi. Luke Stork would be your best bet I guess but a major underdog nonetheless.

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11-06-2012, 02:00 PM
  #46
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Then again it's only my opinion, I don't have inside info that leads me to think this way

No I don't think anyone else from Youngstown is getting drafted outside of Cangelosi. Luke Stork would be your best bet I guess but a major underdog nonetheless.
No love for Stenglein? Haha.

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11-06-2012, 02:03 PM
  #47
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No love for Stenglein? Haha.
I had him ranked as well last year, ended up not being drafted. I only checked through the list of 1st year eligible players for the draft, so yeah, Stenglein would be your best bet I guess outside of Cangelosi.

I'm guessing you're a Youngstown resident?

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11-06-2012, 02:05 PM
  #48
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I had him ranked as well last year, ended up not being drafted. I only checked through the list of 1st year eligible players for the draft, so yeah, Stenglein would be your best bet I guess outside of Cangelosi.
I'm from Pittsburgh, but I attend Youngstown games. I've been to three this year and a Buffalo scout was sitting next to me at the Youngstown-Lincoln game.

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11-06-2012, 02:14 PM
  #49
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I'm from Pittsburgh, but I attend Youngstown games. I've been to three this year and a Buffalo scout was sitting next to me at the Youngstown-Lincoln game.
cool, did you hear anything about Cangelosi and Stenglein?

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11-06-2012, 02:22 PM
  #50
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cool, did you hear anything about Cangelosi and Stenglein?
No, I haven't. Stenglein needs to just shoot the puck. He always makes stupid passes/drop passes when he could just shoot. Stenglein also has a nice 'edge' to him. Cangelosi and Stenglein are both playing for Team USA up in the WJAC this week. They scored the only goals for Team USA in the exhibition game and had two assists last night.

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