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Free Preview of Hockey Prospectus Pens Chapter

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Old
10-31-2012, 03:50 PM
  #1
Sivek
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Free Preview of Hockey Prospectus Pens Chapter

Not sure if this should be in the off-season thread but made another topic for it since I imagine a lot of people aren't paying a ton of attention to the off-season thread since there's been no off-season news to talk about for months.

Anyways, HP has posted a free pdf preview of one of the sections of their upcoming season book and lo and behold, it's the Pens' chapter. Haven't taken a look at it yet but I've enjoyed reading their books since they started releasing them a couple years back. It's more data-heavy than most previews and gives a different look at things.

Here it is:

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/prod...2_penguins.pdf

I'll add some comments when I get time to take a long look at it.

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10-31-2012, 04:59 PM
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Lamar Latrell
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sivek View Post
Not sure if this should be in the off-season thread but made another topic for it since I imagine a lot of people aren't paying a ton of attention to the off-season thread since there's been no off-season news to talk about for months.

Anyways, HP has posted a free pdf preview of one of the sections of their upcoming season book and lo and behold, it's the Pens' chapter. Haven't taken a look at it yet but I've enjoyed reading their books since they started releasing them a couple years back. It's more data-heavy than most previews and gives a different look at things.

Here it is:

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/prod...2_penguins.pdf

I'll add some comments when I get time to take a long look at it.
Man, that's awesome stuff. Does a nice job of succinctly describing players relative to others.

The GVT stat definitely passes my smell test. Especially the d-men. Also, Staal's puck possession dominance despite his difficult matchups and zone starts plus his woeful PP abilities.

Really good stuff, I'll be ordering the book soon.

Thanks

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10-31-2012, 05:39 PM
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Some quick thoughts

-I think they're totally on the mark with Jeffrey being used more on the PK.

-Agree that a lot of the noise about TK's performance last year was really just that. He went from playing top-line minutes with first pp duty the second half of the 10-11 season back to his regular role last season. He also had the big drop in shooting% after being very consistent in that area.

TK is what he is, a 15 goal/30pt 3rd-line winger with some durability issues. I'm always confused with the sort of whipping boy status of him since he's been exactly what most people thought he'd be, a mid-round pick that was never more than a solid prospect that projected as 20-25 goal second-line player at best. That's exactly what he is. He doesn't have a big salary on anything else either...other than his spaz-ish playing style.

-Agree with a lot of what they say about Staal, both the positives and negatives.

-Lovejoy has always rated well in a number of offensive-oriented advanced metrics before and it almost makes me wonder if there's something there the common fan is missing. His future is with another team but maybe in a slightly expanded role he could be a solid-third pairing defensman rather than the swing guy he is with the Pens. He does tend to make some glaring mistakes that might overpower the more subtle aspects of his play.

-Completely on board with the goalie talk

-MacIntyre getting like one line

-Thought they'd be a bit more bullish on Dupuis's outlook for this season.

-Even advanced stats don't know what to make of Tangradi.

-I knew Vitale drew a ton of penalties considering his ice time, good to see that this was proven in the numbers.

-Don't know how I didn't know Adams was the last Hartford pick ever, seems like that's something that hockey announcers would spew ad nauseam. Did I just miss it?

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10-31-2012, 05:49 PM
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They were a bit harsh to Despres.

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10-31-2012, 05:56 PM
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They were a bit harsh to Despres.
I was going to mention Despres but forgot. I actually think they were very on-point on him. Just look at his quality of competition compared to the next lowest defenseman. It's not even close and the criticism of his defensive play in WBS is warranted from watching him play there. He tends to have some really glaring mistakes and I attribute it a bit to him trying to do too much with the puck instead of making the simple play.

I can't see Despres contributing more than a 3rd-pairing role this season in the NHL unless he cuts down on these types of mistakes. He's been a bit disappointing with WBS this season. There will be plays like his excellent OT pass to Thompson for the game-winner but earlier in the game he'll have a couple of really bad turnovers.

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10-31-2012, 08:28 PM
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They only go by stats and ignore what you can actually see on the ice. Still not too bad of an analysis.

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10-31-2012, 10:41 PM
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Despres' minor penalties stats in the AHL was jarring. He was generally regarded as a very good defensive player in the Q, so I'm optimistic it's part of his acclimation to the pros.

Yeah, the advanced stats have always loved Lovejoy. When my subjective opinion and objective advanced stats don't match, I like to re-evaluate. But w/ Lovejoy, this is a persistent trend. What are we missing?

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10-31-2012, 11:47 PM
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Concerning Lovejoy, I've given some credence to the idea that when evaluating a player, there's the tendency to subconsciously look at guys through their draft position/upside combined with age and use that as a basis when making judgements on them visually.

I think a good example of this is Niskanen. When they where paired up in 2010-11, I didn't see much difference in them and may have rated Lovejoy as slightly better. They both stunk in the playoffs though.

Lovejoy got hurt early in the year and was in-and-out the line-up all year. Niskanen stayed healthy and was a solid 3rd-pairing guy. Throughout the year I thought praise for him was a bit overblown since he was simply playing a decent 3rd-pairing role. Thing is, other than Letang, the rest of the top 4 faceplanted, so combined with Niskanen's steady play and status as a former 1st rounder, there's a tendency to think there was more to it than what there it was. When Lovejoy, being undrafted, makes a mistake, the perception is that it's because of his physical limits.

I honestly don't think there was much difference between what Lovejoy did in 10-11 and Niskanen did last season. I don't see Niskanen ever being a solid second-pairing guy for a good team. I think his ideal role was what he was in last season. His offensive game is also no better than Lovejoy's but since he was a 1st round and had a fluke early season playing with Zubov people think there's more there than there is. Lovejoy was undrafted and overaged for a rookie but has shown a similar if not better level of offensive skill the last 2 seasons but there's no groundswell of support thinking that there's something extra there.

There's not much difference in their defensive games and the difference in age is mitigated by Lovejoy having less NHL experience. Lovejoy may have more growth that would be helped by playing a full season.


At least that's my take on Lovejoy being possibly overlooked. I don't know.


Last edited by Sivek: 11-01-2012 at 12:18 AM.
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11-01-2012, 06:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sivek View Post
Concerning Lovejoy, I've given some credence to the idea that when evaluating a player, there's the tendency to subconsciously look at guys through their draft position/upside combined with age and use that as a basis when making judgements on them visually.

I think a good example of this is Niskanen. When they where paired up in 2010-11, I didn't see much difference in them and may have rated Lovejoy as slightly better. They both stunk in the playoffs though.

Lovejoy got hurt early in the year and was in-and-out the line-up all year. Niskanen stayed healthy and was a solid 3rd-pairing guy. Throughout the year I thought praise for him was a bit overblown since he was simply playing a decent 3rd-pairing role. Thing is, other than Letang, the rest of the top 4 faceplanted, so combined with Niskanen's steady play and status as a former 1st rounder, there's a tendency to think there was more to it than what there it was. When Lovejoy, being undrafted, makes a mistake, the perception is that it's because of his physical limits.

I honestly don't think there was much difference between what Lovejoy did in 10-11 and Niskanen did last season. I don't see Niskanen ever being a solid second-pairing guy for a good team. I think his ideal role was what he was in last season. His offensive game is also no better than Lovejoy's but since he was a 1st round and had a fluke early season playing with Zubov people think there's more there than there is. Lovejoy was undrafted and overaged for a rookie but has shown a similar if not better level of offensive skill the last 2 seasons but there's no groundswell of support thinking that there's something extra there.

There's not much difference in their defensive games and the difference in age is mitigated by Lovejoy having less NHL experience. Lovejoy may have more growth that would be helped by playing a full season.


At least that's my take on Lovejoy being possibly overlooked. I don't know.
Lovejoy had a very good 10-11 season both offensively and defensively. So many people seem to forget that and focus in on last season when, as stated above, he had problems with injuries and simply getting ice time because of Niskanen & Engelland's elevated play. Then he commits "The Turnover" in the playoffs and all of a sudden that is what he is most known for now.

Crosby has been on record saying that he is the toughest defender to play against in practice. Giving up on him (or players like him) so we can feed our pipeline of puck-moving d-men is going to turn us into the 09-10 (playoff) Pens or worse (see last year's playoffs). Great article by the way.

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11-01-2012, 10:12 AM
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Originally Posted by UnrealMachine View Post
Lovejoy had a very good 10-11 season both offensively and defensively. So many people seem to forget that and focus in on last season when, as stated above, he had problems with injuries and simply getting ice time because of Niskanen & Engelland's elevated play. Then he commits "The Turnover" in the playoffs and all of a sudden that is what he is most known for now.

Crosby has been on record saying that he is the toughest defender to play against in practice. Giving up on him (or players like him) so we can feed our pipeline of puck-moving d-men is going to turn us into the 09-10 (playoff) Pens or worse (see last year's playoffs). Great article by the way.
That Crosby comment is overblown. He said it as, he is the toughest battler in practice. That means he tries really hard and is very aggressive in practice. That's great, but says nothing about him being the toughest defender to go up against. He is a good depth defenseman. If you are really worried about how we fare after "giving up" on Lovejoy, then we must have other serious issues or you are paranoid. Also, Lovejoy IS a puck moving dman. That is his strength. We just happen to have a lot of them and guys like Strait and Bort fit the role we need for depth dmen better than Lovejoy.

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11-01-2012, 12:50 PM
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Damn, they were pretty harsh on Staal's PP abilities. I agree that he hasn't been great on the PP and the minutes are there, but I think the stats are a bit misleading. Most of his time on the PP is the 30 seconds. While in total, the minutes add up, he was mostly helping close out the PP and without much to work with in terms of talent. I have no doubt his PP numbers will improve in Carolina.

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11-01-2012, 01:22 PM
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Good write-up although I do not have the time or energy to try and understand sabremetrics. But I agree with the gist of most of their comments. Thanks for posting the link.

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11-08-2012, 01:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Shady Machine View Post
Damn, they were pretty harsh on Staal's PP abilities. I agree that he hasn't been great on the PP and the minutes are there, but I think the stats are a bit misleading. Most of his time on the PP is the 30 seconds. While in total, the minutes add up, he was mostly helping close out the PP and without much to work with in terms of talent. I have no doubt his PP numbers will improve in Carolina.
Staal has consistently been average at best on the PP. He has the numbers to back that statement up. I would not expect him to improve on those unless he is getting tons of assists from Semin's outstanding shot, but that wouldn't really be Staal improving his PP game. I just don't expect him to be a big untapped PP producer from what I've seen of him either. He does not make the proper reads on the PP and plays it more like he's on 5v5 or 5v4....ie he doesn't take the risks that can result in a high % scoring opportunity. He plays it too safe on the PP IMO.

I also can't see him cracking the #1 unit in CAR either with E Staal, Semin, and Skinner in front of him on the depth chart.

HockeyProspectus generally does not post misleading stats. They may post info that you don't personally agree with, but they usually make every effort to evaluate players fairly despite different situations. Just read it with an open mind and it may "change it" - it being your mind.

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