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Luongo Thread: Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For (Mod Warning in OP)

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11-20-2012, 11:19 AM
  #851
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Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
Unfortunately that has always been Burke's single weakness or achilles heel throughout his GM career (he inherited a Conn Smyth winning goalie who was still in his prime at the time with the Ducks) - goaltending.
Come on, Burke or not, nobody is trading Reilly (recent 5th overall and also recently highly touted by Bobby Mac as being better than his draft position and NHL ready, compared him to Coffey) for a 33 year old goalie....period.

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11-20-2012, 11:26 AM
  #852
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
And Rielly is far more highly touted as a prospect than Kadri. And yes, Letang just recently had an injury that wiped out most of his season.


So that makes Letang injury prone? Something on the level of Lupul? Give your head a shake.



Kadri is a lot closer to Lupul, than your comparison. He is an older prospect. On the cusp of realizing an NHL career. Reilly was just drafted. He has no development to draw on (or very little), you equating him to Letang is just as meaningless as equating any offensive Dman to Letang. Why not Murphy? Why not Dumba?



We know more about Kadri and Lupul. We know that if Kadri makes the show, that he will have the same pros and cons (+ lack of size). But with Lupul, those pros and cons walk hand in hand with extremely inconsistent play, a poor injury history, and a continued lack of awareness in the Dzone. So why not take the chance on the same type of player that is on the cusp when comparing the two, and pay lower value while doing it? I would.




Your contention comment is without merit. Gillis flipped Hodgson for Kassian. A 2009 draft pick. This with a contending team. So while I agree that Lupul has more value based on pedigree, Kadri is projected to have a top6 upside with similar flaws, and the fact that he is young didn't deter Gillis from pursuing a similar aged asset before.


Last edited by Bleach Clean: 11-20-2012 at 11:34 AM.
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11-20-2012, 11:28 AM
  #853
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Then keep em and be happy with Swiss cheese quality goaltending.
he's been the most reasonabe leaf fan by a mile, a relative rarity ...let's not drive him over the edge...

i still like a JVR-based deal (assuming he can play RW?)
and wouldnt hate Lupul+ assuming the + is good

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11-20-2012, 11:30 AM
  #854
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Come on, Burke or not, nobody is trading Reilly (recent 5th overall and also recently highly touted by Bobby Mac as being better than his draft position and NHL ready, compared him to Coffey) for a 33 year old goalie....period.
and that doesn't make Gardiner a touch more expendable ...esp w Gunnar, Blacker, Finn ..etc?

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11-20-2012, 11:36 AM
  #855
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Come on, Burke or not, nobody is trading Reilly (recent 5th overall and also recently highly touted by Bobby Mac as being better than his draft position and NHL ready, compared him to Coffey) for a 33 year old goalie....period.
I think Vancouver has twice had a chance to get a prospect like Reilly by trading Schneider for a high pick. I think they had a shot before Philly drafted Couturier and still needed a goalie. I think they could have moved him again at the last draft for the Toronto pick as well. You could make a case that they had a chance with Edmonton and Columbus this past year as well.

Once that player that a GM covets falls to their spot as evidently took place in both situations, you are not going to be able to make that deal as easily for the reason you stated....a player that was rated by one organization much higher than where he was drafted, fell to them. Opportunity lost. Schneider for the fifth before the start of that draft would have been more than fair for both sides.

Draft picks are the only true gold standard currency once their position is known.

Luongo for Reilly may sound nice and maybe you could make a case on the Leafs depth chart that with Gardiner, Percy and Finn all on that side, that he is expendable, the reality is there is no way in heck Burke would trade him for Lou.

Next years' pick (not protected) is far more likely.

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11-20-2012, 11:38 AM
  #856
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Originally Posted by NYVanfan View Post
and that doesn't make Gardiner a touch more expendable ...esp w Gunnar, Blacker, Finn ..etc?
If Rielly makes it to camp and impresses, anything is possible. I expect that Burke would like to hang onto that piece to see if he can resolve the Center ice problem (should Rielly make the team this year).

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11-20-2012, 11:46 AM
  #857
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
So that makes Letang injury prone? Something on the level of Lupul? Give your head a shake.


Kadri is a lot closer to Lupul, than your comparison. He is an older prospect. On the cusp of realizing an NHL career. Reilly was just drafted. He has no development to draw on (or very little), you equating him to Letang is just as meaningless as equating any offensive Dman to Letang. Why not Murphy? Why not Dumba?
No, but given the current pedigree of Kadri vs Rielly and Letang vs Lupul I think it's a fair comparison, although perhaps Rielly not being NHL ready does change that. Maybe make it Gardiner vs Letang then. It doesn't matter, because despite what HF thinks, proven talent is far more valuable than prospects. One can't just assume Kadri will be as good as Lupul minus the injuries.


Quote:
We know more about Kadri and Lupul. We know that if Kadri makes the show, that he will have the same pros and cons (+ lack of size). But with Lupul, those pros and cons walk hand in hand with extremely inconsistent play, a poor injury history, and a continued lack of awareness in the Dzone. So why not take the chance on the same type of player that is on the cusp when comparing the two, and pay lower value while doing it? I would.
Because I don't want to take a chance on a prospect turning out to be as good as a player maybe in a couple of years as opposed to a player playing at that level right now.

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Your contention comment is without merit. Gillis flipped Hodgson for Kassian. A 2009 draft pick. This with a contending team. So while I agree that Lupul has more value based on pedigree, Kadri is projected to have a top6 upside with similar flaws, and the fact that he is young didn't deter Gillis from pursuing a similar aged asset before.
Yeah, he flipped one rookie from an area of strength(skilled forward, potential top-6 centre) for another rookie in an area of weakness(size/toughness, playmaking RW). That has nothing to do with prefering prospects to players. When's the last time Gillis even acquired a prospect in exchange for a roster player?

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11-20-2012, 12:04 PM
  #858
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
No, but given the current pedigree of Kadri vs Rielly and Letang vs Lupul I think it's a fair comparison, although perhaps Rielly not being NHL ready does change that. Maybe make it Gardiner vs Letang then. It doesn't matter, because despite what HF thinks, proven talent is far more valuable than prospects. One can't just assume Kadri will be as good as Lupul minus the injuries.


You're being obtuse. I have agreed that Lupul is valued more. Both by TO, and in general. He is an NHL player. Kadri is not. Clear?



What I'm advocating is taking a chance on essentially the same type of player. The same _type_. After that, it's all projection. Either you think he will have similar value to Lupul eventually, or you don't. Maybe I think he will because I don't think Lupul is all that valuable, hence Kadri wouldn't have to do much to equal it.



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Because I don't want to take a chance on a prospect turning out to be as good as a player maybe in a couple of years as opposed to a player playing at that level right now.


And you think Lupul is any kind of sure bet to retain his level of play? He is anything but a sure bet himself. Are you not taking a chance on him too?




Quote:
Yeah, he flipped one rookie from an area of strength(skilled forward, potential top-6 centre) for another rookie in an area of weakness(size/toughness, playmaking RW). That has nothing to do with prefering prospects to players. When's the last time Gillis even acquired a prospect in exchange for a roster player?



Again, it's not an M.O. It's that Gillis is not averse to taking on younger players on a contending team. You are flat out wrong on this point and Kassian is the evidence.



Gillis has not been in the position to deal a superfluous asset while having no apparent holes on the roster.

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11-20-2012, 12:04 PM
  #859
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Come on, Burke or not, nobody is trading Reilly (recent 5th overall and also recently highly touted by Bobby Mac as being better than his draft position and NHL ready, compared him to Coffey) for a 33 year old goalie....period.
I never said anything about creating several more holes to fill one hole. Just stated a pretty obvious fact at this point - Burke really has a problem assessing goalies. Not making much, if any, effort to get Vokoun (Stevie Wonder could see the Caps weren't going to re-sign him with the way their rookie played in the post-season & they still had a decent goalie prospect in their system). Look at the cheapo price the Pens had to ante up for his rights - chicken feed.

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11-20-2012, 12:07 PM
  #860
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Originally Posted by NYVanfan View Post
and that doesn't make Gardiner a touch more expendable ...esp w Gunnar, Blacker, Finn ..etc?
Right now...our D looks like this:

Phaneuf/Gunnar
Liles/Gardiner
Komi (ugh)/ ????

Franson is unsigned, Holzer/Reilly have 0 NHL experience,Blacker is a maybe and Finn is a ways off. The word "expendable" doesn't fit in our D-corps.

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11-20-2012, 12:10 PM
  #861
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Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
I never said anything about creating several more holes to fill one hole. Just stated a pretty obvious fact at this point - Burke really has a problem assessing goalies. Not making much, if any, effort to get Vokoun (Stevie Wonder could see the Caps weren't going to re-sign him with the way their rookie played in the post-season & they still had a decent goalie prospect in their system). Look at the cheapo price the Pens had to ante up for his rights - chicken feed.
This puzzled me as well....i have no explanation other than Vokoun may have chosen to play with Pitt?

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11-20-2012, 12:13 PM
  #862
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True we don't know all the facts, but you figure that Vokoun still wants to be a starter somewhere & he's going to only backup unless Fleury stumbles again. In Toronto, it would've been the perfect fit. A short-term deal for more money & pretty much the starters job locked-in (enabling Reimer to be eased in & mentored behind a solid veteran).

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11-20-2012, 12:14 PM
  #863
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
You're being obtuse. I have agreed that Lupul is valued more. Both by TO, and in general. He is an NHL player. Kadri is not. Clear?


What I'm advocating is taking a chance on essentially the same type of player. The same _type_. After that, it's all projection. Either you think he will have similar value to Lupul eventually, or you don't. Maybe I think he will because I don't think Lupul is all that valuable, hence Kadri wouldn't have to do much to equal it.


And you think Lupul is any kind of sure bet to retain his level of play? He is anything but a sure bet himself. Are you not taking a chance on him too?
Kadri could very well become as good a player as Lupul, I might even say it's likely. But that won't happen for another couple of years. I have no problem with Kadri, but if the choice was Lupul+ or Kadri++, it's an easy choice for me. We aren't looking to retool and contend a couple of years from now. We're looking to contend immediately, and Lupul is far more likely to make a bigger impact than Kadri in the immediate future.




Quote:
Again, it's not an M.O. It's that Gillis is not averse to taking on younger players on a contending team. You are flat out wrong on this point and Kassian is the evidence.
Again, trading one rookie for another. 11 months apart in age. Completely different than preferring a good prospect to a ppg player in his prime.

Quote:
Gillis has not been in the position to deal a superfluous asset while having no apparent holes on the roster.
We do have holes in our roster. We need a top-6 winger and possibly a 3C, presuming Manny isn't up to it anymore.

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11-20-2012, 12:15 PM
  #864
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Originally Posted by Barney Gumble View Post
True we don't know all the facts, but you figure that Vokoun still wants to be a starter somewhere & he's going to only backup unless Fleury stumbles again. In Toronto, it would've been the perfect fit. A short-term deal for more money & pretty much the starters job locked-in (enabling Reimer to be eased in & mentored behind a solid veteran).
Before Luongo was available, a vet to mentor the kids was exactly what Burke was hunting for....by not pulling the trigger on Vokoun, one has to believe Burke thinks he can do better.

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11-20-2012, 12:34 PM
  #865
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Kadri could very well become as good a player as Lupul, I might even say it's likely. But that won't happen for another couple of years. I have no problem with Kadri, but if the choice was Lupul+ or Kadri++, it's an easy choice for me. We aren't looking to retool and contend a couple of years from now. We're looking to contend immediately, and Lupul is far more likely to make a bigger impact than Kadri in the immediate future.


While true that Lupul is far more ready to make an immediate impact (obviously, he's an NHLer), I'm looking at it from the perspective of getting the best value in the deal overall. If Kadri can close the gap, even eventually, then the strength of the remaining pieces should provide VAN with better overall value than if the package centered around Lupul. That's my take.





Quote:
Again, trading one rookie for another. 11 months apart in age. Completely different than preferring a good prospect to a ppg player in his prime.


You're still wrong. You said prospect on a contending team is a no go. Kassian is the proof otherwise.



And forgive me, but Lupul's prime is a PPG player, and an injury prone player, and a very inconsistent player and player that doesn't play D. He's all these things, and a PPG player most recently. You can't just look at all the good things and ignore the bad. Just like equating Kadri to a regular prospect while he has also been PPG throughout his career.



Quote:
We do have holes in our roster. We need a top-6 winger and possibly a 3C, presuming Manny isn't up to it anymore.


We need a top6 _RIGHT_winger and a 3C, neither of which Lupul remedies.



I said no apparent holes as Schroeder and Kassian will be afforded opportunities in these spots, and Arnott is still an FA. So it's not imperative that a Luongo deal, especially with TO, "fixes" anything. Thus, shoot for value.

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11-20-2012, 12:41 PM
  #866
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Can't wait until this trade is done.

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11-20-2012, 12:53 PM
  #867
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
While true that Lupul is far more ready to make an immediate impact (obviously, he's an NHLer), I'm looking at it from the perspective of getting the best value in the deal overall. If Kadri can close the gap, even eventually, then the strength of the remaining pieces should provide VAN with better overall value than if the package centered around Lupul. That's my take.

I care less about the intangible term "value" and more about giving the team the best chance to win now without sacrificing the future.



Quote:
You're still wrong. You said prospect on a contending team is a no go. Kassian is the proof otherwise.
No I did not. I said Lupul has more value to us than Kadri, as we are a contending team.


Quote:
And forgive me, but Lupul's prime is a PPG player, and an injury prone player, and a very inconsistent player and player that doesn't play D. He's all these things, and a PPG player most recently. You can't just look at all the good things and ignore the bad. Just like equating Kadri to a regular prospect while he has also been PPG throughout his career.
Kadri has actually never once been PPG outside of junior. And I didn't call him average, I called him good. And Lupul isn't inconsistent, just injury prone. Kadri is far more inconsistent, having a rather slow start to the season before exploding with a couple of high point nights. I just don't see his upside being any greater than what Lupul is now, and it would be far more prudent to pick the player who has already proven himself to be a legitimate player at the NHL level than a prospect who may or may not become an equal calibre player.


Quote:
We need a top6 _RIGHT_winger and a 3C, neither of which Lupul remedies.
I'm about 70% sure Lupul has played right before, hopefully someone can bring some insight on that.

Quote:
I said no apparent holes as Schroeder and Kassian will be afforded opportunities in these spots, and Arnott is still an FA. So it's not imperative that a Luongo deal, especially with TO, "fixes" anything. Thus, shoot for value.
It may not be imperative, but it is still preferable by far. I'd be a lot more content going with Lupul in a top-6 spot over Kassian.

An exaggerated example to make a point, would you trade Luongo for 10 second round picks? The value is certainly there, and we have no 'apparent' holes as we have Schroeder and Kassian, even though neither of whom have any history of producing in the NHL.

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11-20-2012, 01:09 PM
  #868
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Before Luongo was available, a vet to mentor the kids was exactly what Burke was hunting for....by not pulling the trigger on Vokoun, one has to believe Burke thinks he can do better.
By not pulling the trigger, it's just Burke doing what Burke does best: not solving the goaltending situation. Then he'll go with some second-rate solution and spin it as the goalie of the future. We've lived through this.


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11-20-2012, 01:13 PM
  #869
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By not pulling the trigger, it's just Burke doing what Burke does best...not solve the goaltending situation. Then he'll go with some second-rate solution and spin it as the goalie of the future. We've lived through this.
I think Vokoun was that "second rate solution", something else in the works IMO.

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11-20-2012, 01:21 PM
  #870
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I think Vokoun was that "second rate solution", something else in the works IMO.
Word at the time was that Vokoun chose the Penguins, not vice versa - seems a bit strange in light of that to suggest that Burke had any shot at him, let alone that Burke passed on it.

edit: Went back and re-read the Friedman article and it suggests Toronto was one of three players for Vokoun. I guess you can spin that as Burke kicking the tires on a "second rate solution" although IMO that's questionable behaviour from a GM. Identify your need and address it, you can't test the waters on a player - indicating you'd be satisfied with them - and then decide you're too good for them. Of course this all involves a fair amount of projecting onto Burke.


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11-20-2012, 01:22 PM
  #871
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I care less about the intangible term "value" and more about giving the team the best chance to win now without sacrificing the future.


If that were the case, Gillis would have dealt Hodgson for an established C/RW/RD, but he didn't. He cares about potential value. He thinks long-term. You don't.



Not to mention the faulty argument that you think Lupul: the no D, inconsistent, injury riddled LWer is going to give this team the best shot to win now? Who's to say he doesn't come here an completely flops like he did in ANA and EDM and parts of PHI?




Quote:
No I did not. I said Lupul has more value to us than Kadri, as we are a contending team.


You said Gillis wouldn't target a prospect over an established NHL talent because we are a contending team. Kassian proves otherwise. Therefore you are wrong.



Quote:
Kadri has actually never once been PPG outside of junior. And I didn't call him average, I called him good. And Lupul isn't inconsistent, just injury prone. Kadri is far more inconsistent, having a rather slow start to the season before exploding with a couple of high point nights. I just don't see his upside being any greater than what Lupul is now, and it would be far more prudent to pick the player who has already proven himself to be a legitimate player at the NHL level than a prospect who may or may not become an equal calibre player.


It's far more prudent to do your homework on Lupul. Kadri may not become a Lupul calibre player, but then Lupul may not continue to be Lupul either. He has been that up and down in his career. Night and day. He's bounced around from ANA, to PHI, to EDM to TO and only just recently has he reached the height that he has. Teams have given up on him. Anointed him, only to then give up on him again. You want to bank on that? Go ahead, but I see him as every bit the wildcard Kadri is. At least with Kadri you can teach him something while he's still young.





Quote:
I'm about 70% sure Lupul has played right before, hopefully someone can bring some insight on that.


I'm sure he has in ANA, but it's irrelevant. He's PPG on the LW. He's played that side most recently, almost exclusively. So if you want to maximize what he can bring, play him in the position he was most successful. Otherwise, who knows what you will get?



Quote:
It may not be imperative, but it is still preferable by far. I'd be a lot more content going with Lupul in a top-6 spot over Kassian.

An exaggerated example to make a point, would you trade Luongo for 10 second round picks? The value is certainly there, and we have no 'apparent' holes as we have Schroeder and Kassian, even though neither of whom have any history of producing in the NHL.


Make those 5 1sts and I'd do it, no question.


I'd be more comfortable with Andre Kostitsyn in the 2nd RW spot than Kassian, but that's not how you grow players. You have to give them chances to develop.



It's also smart by Gillis. By going into the season with both starters, he gets to better understand where his position of needs actually are. Right now it's 3C and 2RW. But if one of Schroeder/Kassian step up, scratch that need off the list. If both do, then you can go for an even more futures centric package. If neither one does, then you need to address both positions, if you can, by dealing Lu. But again, Lupul isn't a 3C or 2RW so it really doesn't matter - he doesn't fit... Actually, oddly enough, Kadri can play C or RW.

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11-20-2012, 01:23 PM
  #872
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Word at the time was that Vokoun chose the Penguins, not vice versa - seems a bit strange in light of that to suggest that Burke had any shot at him, let alone that Burke passed on it.
Not what i meant. I meant that Vokoun "would" have been the stopgap for Burke. I agree, he chose Pit.

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11-20-2012, 01:28 PM
  #873
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Not what i meant. I meant that Vokoun "would" have been the stopgap for Burke. I agree, he chose Pit.
Gotcha. Of course I've now gone back and changed the entire post, so..

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11-20-2012, 01:34 PM
  #874
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Gotcha. Of course I've now gone back and changed the entire post, so..
Ok...just forget what i said.....start from scratch?? I'm bored!!

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11-20-2012, 01:49 PM
  #875
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If that were the case, Gillis would have dealt Hodgson for an established C/RW/RD, but he didn't. He cares about potential value. He thinks long-term. You don't.
How many teams were offering this "established C/RW/RD" in exchange for a rookie getting sheltered minutes? Other teams also intend to compete now, so the only thing that makes sense in this scenario would be a potential for potential swap. Unless you know of any offers for Hodgson that included this established player that Gillis turned down.

Quote:
Not to mention the faulty argument that you think Lupul: the no D, inconsistent, injury riddled LWer is going to give this team the best shot to win now? Who's to say he doesn't come here an completely flops like he did in ANA and EDM and parts of PHI?

Nothing, but I think he gives us a better chance than the no D; inconsistent LWer Kadri who has never played a full season in the NHL before.



Quote:
You said Gillis wouldn't target a prospect over an established NHL talent because we are a contending team. Kassian proves otherwise. Therefore you are wrong.
So how many RWers with size, skill, and a mean streak were on the market for Hodgson? Presumably none, which is why he traded for a player who might potentially be that,

If Gillis was offered Lucic instead of Kassian, you think he would still take Kassian over him?


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It's far more prudent to do your homework on Lupul. Kadri may not become a Lupul calibre player, but then Lupul may not continue to be Lupul either. He has been that up and down in his career. Night and day. He's bounced around from ANA, to PHI, to EDM to TO and only just recently has he reached the height that he has. Teams have given up on him. Anointed him, only to then give up on him again. You want to bank on that? Go ahead, but I see him as every bit the wildcard Kadri is. At least with Kadri you can teach him something while he's still young.
You see his inexperience as a plus, while I see it as a detriment. Both Kadri and Lupul have risks, the difference is that even if both meet their potential, Lupul will be contributing now to help win a cup, while Kadri will still take several years before hitting his prime, by which time the Sedins, Bieksa, and Hamhuis will all likely be past their prime.




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I'm sure he has in ANA, but it's irrelevant. He's PPG on the LW. He's played that side most recently, almost exclusively. So if you want to maximize what he can bring, play him in the position he was most successful. Otherwise, who knows what you will get?
It's still better than Kadri, who's never played RW before in his life.



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Make those 5 1sts and I'd do it, no question.
But why not 10 2nds? if the value is there and there are no obvious holes our roster(in your opinion), we should take it?

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I'd be more comfortable with Andre Kostitsyn in the 2nd RW spot than Kassian, but that's not how you grow players. You have to give them chances to develop.
Yes, but it makes no sense preferring to pass up on a player for a prospect who projects similarly to that player. As I said before, one wouldn't pass up on Lucic for the RW spot in favour of Kassian. Similarly, you don't pass up on Lupul in favour of Kadri.


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It's also smart by Gillis. By going into the season with both starters, he gets to better understand where his position of needs actually are. Right now it's 3C and 2RW. But if one of Schroeder/Kassian step up, scratch that need off the list. If both do, then you can go for an even more futures centric package. If neither one does, then you need to address both positions, if you can, by dealing Lu. But again, Lupul isn't a 3C or 2RW so it really doesn't matter - he doesn't fit... Actually, oddly enough, Kadri can play C or RW.
Kadri plays C or LW. And given his defensive defieciencies I don't think 3C would be the best place for him. He'd certainly be workable in our system somehow, but Lupul makes far more sense for us to target.

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