HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Atlantic Division > Toronto Maple Leafs
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Off-season madness the 2nd: Jays get Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle, Bonifacio

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
11-12-2012, 12:53 PM
  #226
Nasty Nazem
The North Remembers
 
Nasty Nazem's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In my house... duh!
Country: Canada
Posts: 26,428
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
I used to live in Chicago and have been following their offseason and talking to my buddies and they are looking at moving Castro to speed up the rebuild process. They have a Javier Baez who is almost ready and is pretty similar to Castro but could be suited to play 3B if the Cubs did get a guy like Hech back in a deal.

Epstein is not afraid of trading his franchise shortstop in order to get better ask Nomar.
Almost ready? You mean the guy that spent most of the year at A ball? And then struggled to hit when he got to High A (he was young for the league but nonetheless). He is so not anywhere near ready. Likely not a guy that sticks at SS either.

Doubt Cubs would trade Castro at this point.

Nasty Nazem is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 01:07 PM
  #227
canucksfan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: British Columbia
Posts: 24,987
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohio Jones View Post
Pretty sure "they" refers to his buddies, not the Cubs. All just speculation based on Epstein's Red Sox history. Doesn't mean it's baseless speculation, but nobody has indicated Castro is on the market.
That's what I figured. They might deal Castro but the team that trades for him would have to pay a lot for him.

canucksfan is online now  
Old
11-12-2012, 01:07 PM
  #228
LloydChristmas*
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Toronto, Ontario.
Posts: 109
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
Almost ready? You mean the guy that spent most of the year at A ball? And then struggled to hit when he got to High A (he was young for the league but nonetheless). He is so not anywhere near ready. Likely not a guy that sticks at SS either.

Doubt Cubs would trade Castro at this point.
Agreed. In what ways does losing your 22 year old stud shortstop with all star potential every year speed up your rebuilding process?

LloydChristmas* is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 01:08 PM
  #229
Ohio Jones
Moderator
The other Dexter
 
Ohio Jones's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Great White North
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,609
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozak View Post
I agree pitching should be a priority, but once we address this I would love to turn to a possible Shin-soo Choo trade.

Choo is so under rated, I used to think he was just a blue Jay killer,but really he's a top player in the game. I don't even care if he's a Boras client, as of next year Shin Soo choo will be one of the best for your bang buck players.

Our weakness in our offence is getting guys OBP. Choo has a career OBP higher than Ichiro... That is insane. In over 2500 at bats he has remarkable .381 OBP.

If he could be traded for he would be my number one target. I'd rather give Choo 13 - 15 million a year than Hamilton 25 million a year.

Choo could solve LF for us and we add a potent bat for cheap as of next year. If he does good, Rogers will surely give AA the green light to give Choo the money next year. He could slot in at #2, #3 or #5.

He isn't a big name player with All star written over him but he does everything we need. I would love to add Choo.
He is most definitely available in trade, right now, and will remain so as long as he's still in Cleveland.

You may have missed me saying Choo's a very good player. He is, but he's a good-value player for one season only. He's a rental, and while I agree he's been underrated to date, other clubs will gladly rectify that next winter for the reasons you indicate. He will go from being undervalued to overpaid pretty quickly. And in the meantime the Indians do NOT undervalue him, so he'll fetch a handsome return... more handsome, I expect, than the Jays should be looking to pay for a one-year rental.

Just as important, while he's terrific against righties, he was a healthy scratch more than once against lefties for good reason. While it's important for the Jays to add a left-handed bat to break up the order, I think it's more important that they find somebody who can hit left-handed pitching.

Ohio Jones is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 01:18 PM
  #230
AlienWorkShop
No Ben! No!
 
AlienWorkShop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,164
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
He said, how can a player be replacement level when there's no player not in the majors that would be good enough to replace him with? The fact of the matter is, JPA might be called "replacement" level by WAR, but how many non-major league catchers could actually out perform him? One or two maybe.
I've seen this point a couple times about this "mythical" replacement player.

It's just a matter of using a baseline. WAR simply established baselines at league-average levels for defence and below league-average for offense. It doesn't even need to be literally AAA players when you're considering these "AAAA" players. Just taking a glance at all players with at least 300 PA last year, there were 26 players within .3 wins of 0 WAR last year, or roughly one per team. Throw in a fair amount of AAA players and it's a pretty reasonable assumption.

I'm no JPA fan, but it's harsh (and technically wrong) to call him a replacement level player considering he was a 1.3 WAR last year in only 102 games. I'm personally critical of JPA simply because I see little reason to suspect he'll improve much from what he is now, which is roughly a below-average catcher. Nothing particularly wrong with that, but nothing to get hyped about either, especially since he'll be 27 in January.

Considering JPA was at 1.3, it's certainly a stretch to suggest you could easily replace JPA and his .233/.275/.435, 89 wRC+ and average to below-average defence with some other bottom rung MLB catcher and/or a few AAA catchers.

But, in WAR's defence... Just to take one example from this past year, Josh Thole had a 0.1 WAR for the Mets. Is it really a stretch to suggest you could easily find a low-rung MLB backup catcher or AAA catcher that could replicate Thole's .234/.294/.290, 60 wRC+ and roughly league average defence? I don't think so.

AlienWorkShop is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 01:19 PM
  #231
HappyGilmourr
Registered User
 
HappyGilmourr's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Milton
Posts: 5,050
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohio Jones View Post
He is most definitely available in trade, right now, and will remain so as long as he's still in Cleveland.

You may have missed me saying Choo's a very good player. He is, but he's a good-value player for one season only. He's a rental, and while I agree he's been underrated to date, other clubs will gladly rectify that next winter for the reasons you indicate. He will go from being undervalued to overpaid pretty quickly. And in the meantime the Indians do NOT undervalue him, so he'll fetch a handsome return... more handsome, I expect, than the Jays should be looking to pay for a one-year rental.

Just as important, while he's terrific against righties, he was a healthy scratch more than once against lefties for good reason. While it's important for the Jays to add a left-handed bat to break up the order, I think it's more important that they find somebody who can hit left-handed pitching.
Why do you act as if it has to be a one year rental though? If Jays ownership likes what they see they will surely pay him next off-season. I keep hearing owenership will pay in the right circumstances. If Choo helps us get into the post-season then they have no choice but to sign him... they better damn pay him. If you don't believe we have a chance at the post season next year than I respectively disagree with you. Sometimes you gotta take risks.

I'm not to concerned about his weakness against LHP, because overall his OBP is off the charts, even with those struggles.


If the Jays intend on having 2B a weakness, that's fine... but they should at least make LF a strength.

It makes a lot of sense IMO. I feel we need one more productive bat for the lineup as well as two starting pitchers. I feel Choo is the guy that would make most sense because as you say he is available.

HappyGilmourr is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 01:24 PM
  #232
Faidh ar Rud Eigin
Modhnóirí Claonta
 
Faidh ar Rud Eigin's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Transcendent
Country: Isle of Man
Posts: 16,272
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Epictetus View Post
You don't need advanced stats to see that Arencibia is not a good baseball player. He strikes out nearly 30% of the time, isn't great defensively (but he's improving!), walks less than 5% of the time, and has a horrid plate discipline.

The only thing he has going for himself is power, but it's not nearly enough to justify any of the above.

I'll take a catcher who can hit .260 and post an OBP between .320-330 over Arencibia.



Because JP and Mathis are both replacement level players, I am getting rid of JP to play Mathis?

Ok.

Where have I argued that Mathis is a good baseball player? Because, he too needs to shape up or ship out.
Really all this is doing is proving my point about how people here undervalue any player who doesn't have a great OBP. You say he's worse than average, Toronto would say otherwise. Teams like the Rangers, a top team who want him as their starting catcher, say otherwise. This is the point about sabemetrics being used and not caring about anything else. Why do you think there is no GM who swears by sabametrics completely, not even Mr. Moneyball Billy Beane.

Replacement level would presume there are minor league catchers who are as good as JPA. That simply isn't true. Replacement level will always remain the reason WAR is not taken as a major stat among big league personel. How can a player be at or below replacement when there is no one lower than MLB better?

JPA is an above-average catcher, other teams considered that. Like I said, you would be laughed at if you said JPA is no better than Mathis and is one of the worst catchers in the league. It's really the same as hockey fans who use CORSI, just on a larger scale. Sabametrics has it's place, but when you use it as an end all be all like you are, it's useless, pointless. The way you talk, no team should give more than an midling prospect for JPA or an OK relief pitcher, which is completely ludicrous. Mathis was had for nothing, and you think JPA is no better.

I'm pretty glad people like you don't work for the Jays, though I wish you worked for a team for some good young players, Jays might be able to swing a good player for nothing.

Faidh ar Rud Eigin is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 01:31 PM
  #233
Bjindaho
Registered User
 
Bjindaho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,244
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
Really all this is doing is proving my point about how people here undervalue any player who doesn't have a great OBP. You say he's worse than average, Toronto would say otherwise. Teams like the Rangers, a top team who want him as their starting catcher, say otherwise. This is the point about sabemetrics being used and not caring about anything else. Why do you think there is no GM who swears by sabametrics completely, not even Mr. Moneyball Billy Beane.

Replacement level would presume there are minor league catchers who are as good as JPA. That simply isn't true. Replacement level will always remain the reason WAR is not taken as a major stat among big league personel. How can a player be at or below replacement when there is no one lower than MLB better?

JPA is an above-average catcher, other teams considered that. Like I said, you would be laughed at if you said JPA is no better than Mathis and is one of the worst catchers in the league. It's really the same as hockey fans who use CORSI, just on a larger scale. Sabametrics has it's place, but when you use it as an end all be all like you are, it's useless, pointless. The way you talk, no team should give more than an midling prospect for JPA or an OK relief pitcher, which is completely ludicrous. Mathis was had for nothing, and you think JPA is no better.

I'm pretty glad people like you don't work for the Jays, though I wish you worked for a team for some good young players, Jays might be able to swing a good player for nothing.
Really? I'm guessing you don't watch baseball, because I can't see how anyone that does could ever come to the conclusion that JPA is CURRENTLY an above-average catcher. He doesn't get on, he doesn't make contact, and he is average at best defensively. He is below-average (but above replacement level)

Bjindaho is online now  
Old
11-12-2012, 01:38 PM
  #234
Ohio Jones
Moderator
The other Dexter
 
Ohio Jones's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Great White North
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,609
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozak View Post
Why do you act as if it has to be a one year rental though? If Jays ownership likes what they see they will surely pay him next off-season. I keep hearing owenership will pay in the right circumstances. If Choo helps us get into the post-season then they have no choice but to sign him... they better damn pay him.
Ownership will pay, but that doesn't mean Anthopolous should expect them to *overpay*, and that's what will be required to keep Choo around beyond 2013. It's simply not good asset management to give up trade pieces for a guy you'll need to overpay to keep, especially when there are other quality options on the FA market that won't cost assets, and won't have the same inflated salary expectations beyond 2013.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bozak View Post
I'm not to concerned about his weakness against LHP, because overall his OBP is off the charts, even with those struggles.
You should be, because the incremental improvement of adding Choo to a lineup that already hits righties well isn't as great as adding someone who can mash lefties would be. Especially for what Choo will cost after 2013.

Ohio Jones is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 01:58 PM
  #235
Epictetus
Global Moderator
Create yourself.
 
Epictetus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Ontario
Country: Canada
Posts: 14,532
vCash: 2050
Quote:
Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
Post
Simple question: do you think that JPA is a good baseball player? And why or why not?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spezza19 View Post
Wow came in here to see if there were any updates Jays rumours about who they may sign or trade for and there is absolutely nothing.

Macier Izturus
Jason Jaffries

I guess I really shouldn't expect much...
Can you tell us who other teams have signed and or traded for?

Epictetus is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 01:58 PM
  #236
GoSensGo765
GO SENS GO!!
 
GoSensGo765's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Ottawa
Country: Canada
Posts: 10,578
vCash: 500
Wow came in here to see if there were any updates Jays rumours about who they may sign or trade for and there is absolutely nothing.

Macier Izturus
Jason Jaffries

I guess I really shouldn't expect much...

GoSensGo765 is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:00 PM
  #237
Diamond Joe Quimby
A$AP Joffrey
 
Diamond Joe Quimby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 4,326
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohio Jones View Post
Ownership will pay, but that doesn't mean Anthopolous should expect them to *overpay*, and that's what will be required to keep Choo around beyond 2013. It's simply not good asset management to give up trade pieces for a guy you'll need to overpay to keep, especially when there are other quality options on the FA market that won't cost assets, and won't have the same inflated salary expectations beyond 2013.



You should be, because the incremental improvement of adding Choo to a lineup that already hits righties well isn't as great as adding someone who can mash lefties would be. Especially for what Choo will cost after 2013.
I'm not a fan of tying money up in LF, especially with a couple young outfielders on the way. However, viewing things in a vacuum, as most fans do, the production of a Choo\Davis platoon does make sense for 2013. The main concerns I would have are; the cost of acquiring Mr. Choo in assets, the opportunity cost of using said assets in a trade for a LF rather than a SP, the horrific defense that will be featured in LF, and the eventual monetary cost of retaining Choo. His bat, alone, would fit in the lineup and fill a need, however, judgement of the move can only be made in the cost of acquisition.

Diamond Joe Quimby is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:01 PM
  #238
Faidh ar Rud Eigin
Modhnóirí Claonta
 
Faidh ar Rud Eigin's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Transcendent
Country: Isle of Man
Posts: 16,272
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bjindaho View Post
Really? I'm guessing you don't watch baseball, because I can't see how anyone that does could ever come to the conclusion that JPA is CURRENTLY an above-average catcher. He doesn't get on, he doesn't make contact, and he is average at best defensively. He is below-average (but above replacement level)
It's general concensus around the league that a catcher does not need to have all three offensive attributes, they just need to be really good at one. JPA has great power, 30 homerun potential. That's way above average for a catcher, and who cares if he hits .230? He handles the pitching well, and he's not bad at any other element. If sabametrics didn't exist, people here would have a must higher opinion of JPA.

Faidh ar Rud Eigin is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:07 PM
  #239
Diamond Joe Quimby
A$AP Joffrey
 
Diamond Joe Quimby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 4,326
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spezza19 View Post
Wow came in here to see if there were any updates Jays rumours about who they may sign or trade for and there is absolutely nothing.

Macier Izturus
Jason Jaffries

I guess I really shouldn't expect much...
I know what a crappy organization. Haven't signed anyones!!! Especially since all the top free agents have signed elsewhere. AA's terrible. Bryan Murray for GM, Paul MacLean for manager. Get errr duuunnnnn.

Diamond Joe Quimby is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:12 PM
  #240
ryno23
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 2,585
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohio Jones View Post
Ownership will pay, but that doesn't mean Anthopolous should expect them to *overpay*, and that's what will be required to keep Choo around beyond 2013. It's simply not good asset management to give up trade pieces for a guy you'll need to overpay to keep, especially when there are other quality options on the FA market that won't cost assets, and won't have the same inflated salary expectations beyond 2013.



You should be, because the incremental improvement of adding Choo to a lineup that already hits righties well isn't as great as adding someone who can mash lefties would be. Especially for what Choo will cost after 2013.
Choo has actually hit lefties pretty good throughout his years. Last year was abnormal

2008 - .286
2009 - .274
2010 - .265
2011 - .269
2012 .199

So besides last year he has better averages vs lefties than most of the Jays hitter had a total average last year. How many guys hit more than .269

Only Lawire and EE had a higher average than the lowest season Choo had vs lefties (aside from last year).

He has great numbers overall and yes he is a Boras client but sometimes you may have to overbid a bit to sign a player of that caliber. Just because he is a Boras client doesn't mean you have to get scared away. Make him a proper market contract offer and then go from there.

We understand it will take overpayment for some guys to come and play in Canada so if you can make a deal for one and have a year to show them how its not that bad and really a good place with a great city, team and fans you have an edge in negotiations.

ryno23 is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:13 PM
  #241
Diamond Joe Quimby
A$AP Joffrey
 
Diamond Joe Quimby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 4,326
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
It's general concensus around the league that a catcher does not need to have all three offensive attributes, they just need to be really good at one. JPA has great power, 30 homerun potential. That's way above average for a catcher, and who cares if he hits .230? He handles the pitching well, and he's not bad at any other element. If sabametrics didn't exist, people here would have a must higher opinion of JPA.
J.P. is what he is. He is a young(er) catcher, with some flaws. Does that make him the worst catcher in baseball? Absolutely not. Do Sabremetrics make him look bad? No, but they do expose some of the weaknesses in his game. He is what he is. I would venture to say he's an average catcher in the league, both offensively and defensively. Literally, middle of the pack. Sabremetrics aren't the enemy, nor are they the end all be all.

Diamond Joe Quimby is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:20 PM
  #242
Bjindaho
Registered User
 
Bjindaho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,244
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
It's general concensus around the league that a catcher does not need to have all three offensive attributes, they just need to be really good at one. JPA has great power, 30 homerun potential. That's way above average for a catcher, and who cares if he hits .230? He handles the pitching well, and he's not bad at any other element. If sabametrics didn't exist, people here would have a must higher opinion of JPA.
He doesn't have great power. He's hit 41 homers in 895 MLB at bats. He's basically a 20 homer catcher. Add to that that he only slugs in the .430s and he isn't a great power bat.

He is a low walk, high strikeout catcher. He profiles very similarly to guys like Buck, Barajas, and Saltalamacchia (to varying degrees).

Bjindaho is online now  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:24 PM
  #243
Diamond Joe Quimby
A$AP Joffrey
 
Diamond Joe Quimby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 4,326
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Choo has actually hit lefties pretty good throughout his years. Last year was abnormal

2008 - .286
2009 - .274
2010 - .265
2011 - .269
2012 .199
To be fair, he's a career .315 wOBA\95 wRC+ vs. lefties. So he's not as useless as a guy like Adam Lind, but his production does drop off considerably. Enough that you would not want him hitting everyday against lefties.

For reference, Jays who have been more productive against lefties in 2012 (compared to Choo's career numbers): Encarnacion, Lawrie, Sierra, Davis, Arencibia. Jays who have historically hit lefties better, and have a proven track record: Jose (.476\205! in 2011) and Yunel (.404\155 in 2011). That's essentially the bulk of your current starting lineup, which goes to Jones' point that hitting lefties is not, historically, a problem for this team.


Last edited by Diamond Joe Quimby: 11-12-2012 at 02:31 PM.
Diamond Joe Quimby is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:26 PM
  #244
ryno23
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 2,585
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamond Joe Quimby View Post
J.P. is what he is. He is a young(er) catcher, with some flaws. Does that make him the worst catcher in baseball? Absolutely not. Do Sabremetrics make him look bad? No, but they do expose some of the weaknesses in his game. He is what he is. I would venture to say he's an average catcher in the league, both offensively and defensively. Literally, middle of the pack. Sabremetrics aren't the enemy, nor are they the end all be all.
Again leaving out the Sabremetrics you look at his 2011 season and he was 4th among MLB catchers with 23 homers and 5th with 78 rbi's. That is the production that teams would be looking for from a catcher especially one has young as JPA where teams think with more experience he would improve his secondary stats such as OBP, AVG, walks.

He was hitting in the bottom of the order. If he had AB in the middle of the order which teams think he could hit he would be probably tops in HR and RBI's and that is what your looking for offensively from a catcher not speed haha.

ryno23 is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:27 PM
  #245
Faidh ar Rud Eigin
Modhnóirí Claonta
 
Faidh ar Rud Eigin's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Transcendent
Country: Isle of Man
Posts: 16,272
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bjindaho View Post
He doesn't have great power. He's hit 41 homers in 895 MLB at bats. He's basically a 20 homer catcher. Add to that that he only slugs in the .430s and he isn't a great power bat.

He is a low walk, high strikeout catcher. He profiles very similarly to guys like Buck, Barajas, and Saltalamacchia (to varying degrees).
He had almost 20 homeruns last season while missing 60 games. He's "basically" a 20 homerun catcher?

You're just looking for reasons now, and they're not very good ones. A full season and JPA hits 30 homeruns, if not more. He's got great power and he tends to hit them in bunches. If JPA didn't have his hand broken in that horrible game that I really wish I didn't go to, he probably would have continued on his hotstreak (His batting average was climbing astronomically in July aswell untill the injury).

Faidh ar Rud Eigin is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:29 PM
  #246
Bjindaho
Registered User
 
Bjindaho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,244
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Again leaving out the Sabremetrics you look at his 2011 season and he was 4th among MLB catchers with 23 homers and 5th with 78 rbi's. That is the production that teams would be looking for from a catcher especially one has young as JPA where teams think with more experience he would improve his secondary stats such as OBP, AVG, walks.

He was hitting in the bottom of the order. If he had AB in the middle of the order which teams think he could hit he would be probably tops in HR and RBI's and that is what your looking for offensively from a catcher not speed haha.
No he wouldn't! This is an entirely baseless claim. Hitting higher in the lineup could give him more RBI but it has no effect on whether the ball leaves the yard or not. Also, OBP, AVG and walks aren't secondary. The entire point of an at-bat is to not fail (make 1 or more outs). Arencibia is poor at this.

Bjindaho is online now  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:34 PM
  #247
Bjindaho
Registered User
 
Bjindaho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,244
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
He had almost 20 homeruns last season while missing 60 games. He's "basically" a 20 homerun catcher?

You're just looking for reasons now, and they're not very good ones. A full season and JPA hits 30 homeruns, if not more. He's got great power and he tends to hit them in bunches. If JPA didn't have his hand broken in that horrible game that I really wish I didn't go to, he probably would have continued on his hotstreak (His batting average was climbing astronomically in July aswell untill the injury).
He hit 18 in more than 100 games! He didn't miss 60 games .

And now you have ESP and know that he would have continued to hit well? You are inferring counting statistics while arguing that rate statistics aren't important!

Bjindaho is online now  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:40 PM
  #248
Diamond Joe Quimby
A$AP Joffrey
 
Diamond Joe Quimby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 4,326
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Again leaving out the Sabremetrics you look at his 2011 season and he was 4th among MLB catchers with 23 homers and 5th with 78 rbi's. That is the production that teams would be looking for from a catcher especially one has young as JPA where teams think with more experience he would improve his secondary stats such as OBP, AVG, walks.

He was hitting in the bottom of the order. If he had AB in the middle of the order which teams think he could hit he would be probably tops in HR and RBI's and that is what your looking for offensively from a catcher not speed haha.
He's a top ten catcher in baseball in terms of power hitting. Anyone who argues against that is just a hater. However, J.P's never going to walk more, and his OBP will never be all that spectacular. He showed that throughout his journey through the minors. That, and wild pitch blocking, were his main flaws as a prospect. He's improved his blocking, which has made him a top twenty catcher in terms of defense, however, his poor OBP is a result of his approach as a hitter.

Diamond Joe Quimby is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:43 PM
  #249
Diamond Joe Quimby
A$AP Joffrey
 
Diamond Joe Quimby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 4,326
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bjindaho View Post
He hit 18 in more than 100 games! He didn't miss 60 games .

And now you have ESP and know that he would have continued to hit well? You are inferring counting statistics while arguing that rate statistics aren't important!
I'm not taking either side of the argument, but he's a top ten (even top five if you want to get extreme) Power hitting catcher in the league. His iso over the past two seasons proves that. So, the home run count, and whether it would be different as a result of the injury is moot. ISO is the only, non-opinionated, quantitative way of measuring it.

Diamond Joe Quimby is offline  
Old
11-12-2012, 02:45 PM
  #250
ryno23
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 2,585
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamond Joe Quimby View Post
To be fair, he's a career .315 wOBA\95 wRC+ vs. lefties. So he's not as useless as a guy like Adam Lind, but his production does drop off considerably. Enough that you would not want him hitting everyday against lefties.
Again using Sabremetrics stats your creating a flaw into a players game that really with a complex math formula most managers, players, GM, casual fans can either live with or just don't care about.

Sure doesn't hit lefties as good as righties of course not we don't need a complex math formula to see that. I don't need a Harvard math degree to understand he hits righties better than lefties.

But now go outside of the Sabre stats world where there is more going on during a game than a isolated event that can be manipulated by a math formula.

So how many teams say in the AL East start a lefty and not just a lefty but a good one.

Yanks - Sabathia
Sox - Lester
Rays _ Price, Moore
Orioles - Chen

So in a series Choo may face each of those guys 4 times if that so out of 4 games your looking at 4 out of 16 ab's which is 25 % of his Ab's. If he hits .250 against them it means he would be 1 for 4 if they faced him 4 times in a game which is probably closer to 3 in most cases. Now each team carries a loogy and now here is where Sabremetrics flaws

You face the top of the order with the bullpen Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, EE and Choo

Lawrie gets on do you bring in the lefty to face Rasmus knowing if he crushes righties now there is 2 guys on for Jose and EE. Do you use up the lefty for Rasmus to minimize the damage and then let Choo face a righty. Most cases teams 2nd loogy is not as good as the 1st and easier to hit.

Some teams may have 2 lefties in the pen but if the order went around again then they are facing righties and Choo's numbers are way better vs. righties.


So really I not even look at his .315 wOBA\95 wRC+ stats and I don't think most GM look at that and say **** we better not sign him cause those advanced stats may haunt us once a series if we face a lefty or in the 8th inning.

Game is played on the field not on a math sheet.


Last edited by ryno23: 11-12-2012 at 02:56 PM.
ryno23 is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:48 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.