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Off-season madness the 2nd: Jays get Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle, Bonifacio

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Old
11-12-2012, 06:58 PM
  #276
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Originally Posted by Everlong View Post
It has little to do with the batter at the plate. RBI opportunities are based upon the player ahead getting on base.

Fun to talk about though.



After reading through the first article I was surprised to not see a single mention of Jose Molina, the master of strike-zone manipulation. Some interesting reads.
Ok if RBI are based on opportunity then how about we put McCoy in the clean up spot next year and he should drive in as many runs as EE since the RBI is an empty stat and only good if players get on base in front of them.

It would be real fun talking about McCoy sucking ass as the clean up hitter and everyone begging for a guy that drives in runs (oh RBI's)

Again another reason why people need to slow down on the Sabremetrics stats and realize that the standard stats are still what defines ball players and what earns them their contracts.

I don't think an agent tells a GM well look at his UZR is the best in baseball now pay him 10 million even though he hit .180. John Macdonald would be making $15 million if they went on defensive Sabre stats.

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11-12-2012, 07:03 PM
  #277
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That's one of the most impressive strawmans I've seen in awhile.

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11-12-2012, 07:04 PM
  #278
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Ok if RBI are based on opportunity then how about we put McCoy in the clean up spot next year and he should drive in as many runs as EE since the RBI is an empty stat and only good if players get on base in front of them.

It would be real fun talking about McCoy sucking ass as the clean up hitter and everyone begging for a guy that drives in runs (oh RBI's)

Again another reason why people need to slow down on the Sabremetrics stats and realize that the standard stats are still what defines ball players and what earns them their contracts.

I don't think an agent tells a GM well look at his UZR is the best in baseball now pay him 10 million even though he hit .180. John Macdonald would be making $15 million if they went on defensive Sabre stats.
You're taking it way too far. The difference between EE and McCoy offensively is larger than Niagara Falls.

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11-12-2012, 07:08 PM
  #279
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Originally Posted by Scion View Post
The beauty about advanced statistics and studies is that they are objectively true, unlike the opinions of armchair scouts, and posters like you who believe they have insight into the opinions of professional major league executives.

Fun fact, the writer of the pitch framing data that I linked above was hired as a front office executive of Tampa Bay in their analytic department. The same data that ranks J.P. Arencibia as an inefficient, and below average defensive catcher.
Sabremetrics can be manipulated to make any outcome happen and they are formulas created by a math person to make an outcome.

Obviously I am not a guru of these stats and know just enough to be dangerous in making false claims but nonetheless.

UZR from what I read says that it divides the field into zones and then measure how a fielder is able to get to balls.

The flaw however is that not every player starts the play at the same position and that will skew the data. You don't always start in the middle of your zone so going either to your left or right is off and will impact your ability to make a play


So runner on first the 2b and ss are both shaded up the middle for the double play well any ball hit into the 3-4 gap or 5-6 gap will result in a hit but if there was no player on base that fielder would have been say 10 feet over and gotten to the ball.

So many other positional movements by either the fielder or bench coach can impact the UZR.

So its not obective and without flaw but I can watch a game and know that Hech has better range than Jeter but maybe Jeter plays the position better cause he knows how to cheat due to knowing the players and what his pitcher is throwing a host of other tangibles you cannot measure with a math formula.

Again Sabremetrics are a fun way of trying to compare players without watching a ball game or seeing a player play...probably really good at some sort of fantasy league.

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11-12-2012, 07:09 PM
  #280
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Ok if RBI are based on opportunity then how about we put McCoy in the clean up spot next year and he should drive in as many runs as EE since the RBI is an empty stat and only good if players get on base in front of them.

It would be real fun talking about McCoy sucking ass as the clean up hitter and everyone begging for a guy that drives in runs (oh RBI's)

Again another reason why people need to slow down on the Sabremetrics stats and realize that the standard stats are still what defines ball players and what earns them their contracts.

I don't think an agent tells a GM well look at his UZR is the best in baseball now pay him 10 million even though he hit .180. John Macdonald would be making $15 million if they went on defensive Sabre stats.
You've got to be kidding me. This is little kids stuff. If you can't grasp this you're completely beyond help.

The EXACT same hitter would get less RBIs batting in the 9 spot than than he would batting in the 4 spot. Thus the RBI stat is more a measure or opportunity than it is an indicator of hitting ability.

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11-12-2012, 07:11 PM
  #281
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That's one of the most impressive strawmans I've seen in awhile.
Well its plain and simple the poster saidthat the RBI is en empty stat based on luck of a player being on base before.

Yes it does but it also matters who the batter is hitting when those players are on base.

That was never mentioned or left out on purpose

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11-12-2012, 07:16 PM
  #282
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You've got to be kidding me. This is little kids stuff. If you can't grasp this you're completely beyond help.

The EXACT same hitter would get less RBIs batting in the 9 spot than than he would batting in the 4 spot. Thus the RBI stat is more a measure or opportunity than it is an indicator of hitting ability.
JPA Rbi's

batting

5th - 15
8th - 18
9th - 16

So I guess he is the exception to the rule? I don't feel like going thru the MLB leaders to see who else excelled in RBI hitting lower in the order.

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11-12-2012, 07:16 PM
  #283
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Ok if RBI are based on opportunity then how about we put McCoy in the clean up spot next year and he should drive in as many runs as EE since the RBI is an empty stat and only good if players get on base in front of them.

It would be real fun talking about McCoy sucking ass as the clean up hitter and everyone begging for a guy that drives in runs (oh RBI's)

In 2011 Granderson had 16 RBIs more than Bautista. Granderson hit in the middle of a deep Yankees lineup while Bautista was surrounded by scrubs (on offence Jays fans).

RBIs are a team related stat. You cant drive anyone one in if there's no one on the base for you. A crappy hitter can ground out to shortstop or 2nd base and still get a runner accross the plate if the opportunities are there.

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11-12-2012, 07:21 PM
  #284
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Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
JPA Rbi's

batting

5th - 15
8th - 18
9th - 16

So I guess he is the exception to the rule? I don't feel like going thru the MLB leaders to see who else excelled in RBI hitting lower in the order.


He also had only 65 at bats batting 5th while 93 at bats batting 8th and 100 at bats batting 9th. That explains similar RBI numbers. More opportunities.


Arencibia has proven in his short career that he does hit better with runners in scoring position.

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11-12-2012, 07:21 PM
  #285
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In 2011 Granderson had 16 RBIs more than Bautista. Granderson hit in the middle of a deep Yankees lineup while Bautista was surrounded by scrubs (on offence Jays fans).

RBIs are a team related stat. You cant drive anyone one in if there's no one on the base for you. A crappy hitter can ground out to shortstop or 2nd base and still get a runner accross the plate if the opportunities are there.
So you can't drive anyone in if there is no one on base? Hmmm my standard not Sabres stats say you can get an RBI for hitting a home run? Maybe I am wrong but I do think that is the case.

Of course a deep line up will impact amount of RBI but still all teams drive in runs and its those players on each team that get rewarded the big bucks so that stat still is very relevant in today's baseball and will always be.

I don't remember someone saying wow he got 6 years and 100 million contract based on his great UZR and WORB+. They say Josh Hamilton cashed in with a monster year of 46 hrs and 126 rbi's

Sure if he went to Seattle or the Marlins there would be less RBI's but he would still be called a run producer for what he does when he has the chance.

Better way of judging would be using RSIP to evalute a player and not RBI

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11-12-2012, 07:26 PM
  #286
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Haha, I wouldn't get your hopes up if you think you're going to convince ryno on anything.
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I don't agree with that statement, in fact I think using WAR for a catcher is a bad idea to begin with given that it doesn't incorporate pitch framing data which makes up a significant portion of a catcher's defensive value, and it is there that JPA struggles significantly.
Yeah, I forgot to mention the pitch framing data, but it may be a bit premature to start immediately incorporating in all catcher's WAR given the data set's fairly small, if I remember correctly the variance year-to-year is fairly high, and I don't think it's been decided whether it's a skill that catcher's can "learn".

It looks like JPA would be docked about 12 runs per year, or 1.2 wins, only going by his 2010 and 2011 pitch framing data, so it would be interesting to see if that continued into 2012 (I don't know if someone's still publicly releasing this data or if Mike Fast is hoarding it for the Astros braintrust...), but given the year-to-year variance in UZR/DRS, I'd be hesitant to just assume JPA costs us 10+ runs a year on pitch framing alone.

Even then, take 12 runs away from JPA, extrapolate his 1.3 WAR to 150 games, and he's still at a WAR of 0.7. Certainly in the below-average catcher range, and again I'm not JPA fan, but that's still above replacement.

(Fast's pitch framing article may be my favourite Sabremetric work I've seen, so I don't discount it lightly and I'm probably more numbers-oriented than all of the Sabre defenders in here)

His pitch blocking rebounded from -6.0 last year to 1.9 this year, and his DRS stolen base rating improved from -5 to -3, so there may have been an all around improvement in his defence in 2012.

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11-12-2012, 07:30 PM
  #287
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He also had only 65 at bats batting 5th while 93 at bats batting 8th and 100 at bats batting 9th. That explains similar RBI numbers. More opportunities.


Arencibia has proven in his short career that he does hit better with runners in scoring position.
The fact that ryno23 completely omitted this info from his post demonstrates all I need to know about his stance. Brutal intellectual dishonesty and not worth arguing with. Willful ignorance is the worst kind.

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11-12-2012, 07:34 PM
  #288
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So you can't drive anyone in if there is no one on base? Hmmm my standard not Sabres stats say you can get an RBI for hitting a home run? Maybe I am wrong but I do think that is the case.

Of course a deep line up will impact amount of RBI but still all teams drive in runs and its those players on each team that get rewarded the big bucks so that stat still is very relevant in today's baseball and will always be.

I don't remember someone saying wow he got 6 years and 100 million contract based on his great UZR and WORB+. They say Josh Hamilton cashed in with a monster year of 46 hrs and 126 rbi's

Sure if he went to Seattle or the Marlins there would be less RBI's but he would still be called a run producer for what he does when he has the chance.

Better way of judging would be using RSIP to evalute a player and not RBI

Yeah and you get 2 RBIs if you hit a home run with someone else on base.



I have no doubt that Hamilton would drive in runs at the same rate if he played on Mariners or Marlins. His RBI totals would be lower because he'd have less opportunities. This is where the problem lies when people look at RBI totals and totally ignore the situation.

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11-12-2012, 07:55 PM
  #289
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Ok if RBI are based on opportunity then how about we put McCoy in the clean up spot next year and he should drive in as many runs as EE since the RBI is an empty stat and only good if players get on base in front of them.

It would be real fun talking about McCoy sucking ass as the clean up hitter and everyone begging for a guy that drives in runs (oh RBI's)

Again another reason why people need to slow down on the Sabremetrics stats and realize that the standard stats are still what defines ball players and what earns them their contracts.

I don't think an agent tells a GM well look at his UZR is the best in baseball now pay him 10 million even though he hit .180. John Macdonald would be making $15 million if they went on defensive Sabre stats.
It's fun reading these posts

I think McCoy would surprise people with how many RBI he ended up with, but would be complained about incessantly because of his lack of homers (see Cooper, David with better stats). The other issue here is that you are comparing an elite hitter to a backup.

It should also be noted that Johnny Mac's defense was greatly exaggerated in Toronto because while he was good at getting to balls, he didn't have a great arm.

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11-12-2012, 08:00 PM
  #290
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Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Sabremetrics can be manipulated to make any outcome happen and they are formulas created by a math person to make an outcome.

Obviously I am not a guru of these stats and know just enough to be dangerous in making false claims but nonetheless.

UZR from what I read says that it divides the field into zones and then measure how a fielder is able to get to balls.

The flaw however is that not every player starts the play at the same position and that will skew the data. You don't always start in the middle of your zone so going either to your left or right is off and will impact your ability to make a play


So runner on first the 2b and ss are both shaded up the middle for the double play well any ball hit into the 3-4 gap or 5-6 gap will result in a hit but if there was no player on base that fielder would have been say 10 feet over and gotten to the ball.

So many other positional movements by either the fielder or bench coach can impact the UZR.

So its not obective and without flaw but I can watch a game and know that Hech has better range than Jeter but maybe Jeter plays the position better cause he knows how to cheat due to knowing the players and what his pitcher is throwing a host of other tangibles you cannot measure with a math formula.

Again Sabremetrics are a fun way of trying to compare players without watching a ball game or seeing a player play...probably really good at some sort of fantasy league.
This is the perfect illustrative post of why you keep getting accused of strawman arguments (and not just by me anymore). So much of how you painted sabr stats is inaccurate or patently false that it completely undermines your credibility.

you can't manipulate advanced metrics any more than you can the traditional ones. That's a ridiculous assertion. OBP or FIP or the like are made with set formulas just the same as ERA or batting average or any of the old school stats.

UZR does take into account starting point too. It's a measure of how much of the field around them the defender is able to cover. Whether the defender starts in the "standard" position for him to defend from or shifted for various circumstances, that will be taken into account because it's a measure of how far you can range, not how much of a specific chunk of the field you can cover.

Never mind the fact that most sabr-heads will gladly concede that defensive metrics are all lacking in usefulness. They're meant as small supporting points in discussions, not as the crux of any argument.

If you're going to sit in staunch, proud defiance of the progress of baseball analysis, at least have the decency/courtesy to not base your arguments against them on blatantly incorrect assumptions and representations of your opponent. At best it invalidates your arguments because they're build on this fictitious opponent, and at worst it makes it look like you can't really offer up opposition without resorting to constructing a strawman that's tailor-made for you to knock down.

I've done my best (as have many others) in the past to try and explain the flaws in your reasoning against advanced metrics and sabr stats. We've tried to explain why we don't like certain old school stats with reasoned out explanations. It's been attempted to try and educate you on your opponent so that we can have a real debate. But there comes a point where you continue to ignore that and hammer at the same wrong-headed assumptions of what those stats mean and what we as their supporters represent that I'm left to wonder if you really want to try and have the debate, or just want to continue with the status quo because it lets you feel comfortable in your self-assurance that sabr stats are just a bunch of nerdy hokum by people who don't like baseball as much as they like spreadsheets.

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11-12-2012, 08:01 PM
  #291
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You can extrapolate that from what people in the media say, and from their comments themselves. You will never see the things that are said here on sabametrics on the management. In fact, when you get people talking about it, they will talk about the dangers of using sabametrics as an end all be all.

Dirk Hayhurst had a really good segment on F590 about a month ago about it, talking about the advantages but also that in no way, shape or form does it supplant traditional scouting and evalutory techniques, which Arencibia will get much of his value from (His personality, way of handling the pitching staff, his power, his contract status, his talent) instead of people here looking at his OBP and WAR and saying he's a horrible catcher.

This is probably the most irritable thing about these boards, the armchair scouts/GMs who will unrelentlingly bash a player because someone on fangraphs wrote something about it or their advanced stats aren't good. Arencibia is far better than people here give him credit for and I am quite happy that no one like that works for the Jays. Stop using sabametrics as the only thing that matters, because it doesn't, and never will.
I haven't read anyone here who said advanced stats are the only things that matter, so you seem to be railing against a straw dog. Just about everyone seems to understand them as part of the picture - including the Jays. But if you think the Jays don't employ guys who think very highly of Sabremetrics and rely on them for a large part of their player evaluation and assessment, I believe you're sadly mistaken.

Second, JPA has a lot of things going for him: his personality makes him a winner in the room, with the media and with the fans. He seems to communicate better than some catchers I've seen, and it sounds as though he's built good relationships with many of the pitchers. He's still somewhat young, and on a good contract. And yes, when he connects with a ball he has a decent chance of hitting it out of the park. Those are things that make him an attractive commodity.

Aside from home run power, however, those things are intangibles - the sort of things that help a team choose one player over another when the numbers are otherwise close. But good intangibles don't change the fact that he's demonstrably not a very good batter and, while he's improved somewhat behind the plate, he's at best average defensively. That's not about advanced stats, that's simple observation. It's great that he has a winning personality, but that doesn't make him more productive, it just helps somewhat to mitigate his flaws.

Batters do not necessarily improve in plate discipline with more experience, simply because most guys don't have the makeup and discipline to take a Scott Hatteberg-like approach to studying their approach versus particular pitchers, or even in general. There's no evidence so far to suggest Arencibia is any exception, so you should not expect any dramatic improvements in his batting figures. He is what he is, what he has been since the minors, and he is unlikely to change. This is why he bats in the bottom third of the order, and why he likely would for almost any team. His power is not remotely enough to justify moving up into the middle of the order on any regular basis.

That doesn't mean he's useless - it just means that he's more limited than you seem to want to accept. There are a lot of bad catchers in the league though, so he warrants consideration as a starter for some teams, and with luck one of them will be willing to part with something the Jays need in return for him.

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11-12-2012, 08:01 PM
  #292
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It should also be noted that our 1-2 hitters (Lawrie-Rasmus) had the same OBP as our 6-7 hitters (Escobar-Johnson) meaning that Arencibia had similar opportunities to Bautista.

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11-12-2012, 08:11 PM
  #293
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Scion before you got here he went by a different name and claimed JPA to be a face of the franchise. He wildly overvalues JPA. I don't think he's as brutal as some suggest but man he has a real man love for him.
That would explain his pro JPA stance, lol.

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11-12-2012, 08:13 PM
  #294
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Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
Sabremetrics can be manipulated to make any outcome happen and they are formulas created by a math person to make an outcome.

Obviously I am not a guru of these stats and know just enough to be dangerous in making false claims but nonetheless.

UZR from what I read says that it divides the field into zones and then measure how a fielder is able to get to balls.

The flaw however is that not every player starts the play at the same position and that will skew the data. You don't always start in the middle of your zone so going either to your left or right is off and will impact your ability to make a play


So runner on first the 2b and ss are both shaded up the middle for the double play well any ball hit into the 3-4 gap or 5-6 gap will result in a hit but if there was no player on base that fielder would have been say 10 feet over and gotten to the ball.

So many other positional movements by either the fielder or bench coach can impact the UZR.

So its not obective and without flaw but I can watch a game and know that Hech has better range than Jeter but maybe Jeter plays the position better cause he knows how to cheat due to knowing the players and what his pitcher is throwing a host of other tangibles you cannot measure with a math formula.

Again Sabremetrics are a fun way of trying to compare players without watching a ball game or seeing a player play...probably really good at some sort of fantasy league.
I've noticed.

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11-12-2012, 08:26 PM
  #295
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Haha, I wouldn't get your hopes up if you think you're going to convince ryno on anything.

Yeah, I forgot to mention the pitch framing data, but it may be a bit premature to start immediately incorporating in all catcher's WAR given the data set's fairly small, if I remember correctly the variance year-to-year is fairly high, and I don't think it's been decided whether it's a skill that catcher's can "learn".

It looks like JPA would be docked about 12 runs per year, or 1.2 wins, only going by his 2010 and 2011 pitch framing data, so it would be interesting to see if that continued into 2012 (I don't know if someone's still publicly releasing this data or if Mike Fast is hoarding it for the Astros braintrust...), but given the year-to-year variance in UZR/DRS, I'd be hesitant to just assume JPA costs us 10+ runs a year on pitch framing alone.

Even then, take 12 runs away from JPA, extrapolate his 1.3 WAR to 150 games, and he's still at a WAR of 0.7. Certainly in the below-average catcher range, and again I'm not JPA fan, but that's still above replacement.

(Fast's pitch framing article may be my favourite Sabremetric work I've seen, so I don't discount it lightly and I'm probably more numbers-oriented than all of the Sabre defenders in here)

His pitch blocking rebounded from -6.0 last year to 1.9 this year, and his DRS stolen base rating improved from -5 to -3, so there may have been an all around improvement in his defence in 2012.
I don't dispute that JPA has improved his defense on the whole, I just don't think it's improved to the point where he rates as even an average defensive catcher.

Perhaps my replacement level comment was overly harsh, I tend to overstate my opinion at times.

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11-12-2012, 08:28 PM
  #296
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Ok if RBI are based on opportunity then how about we put McCoy in the clean up spot next year and he should drive in as many runs as EE since the RBI is an empty stat and only good if players get on base in front of them.

It would be real fun talking about McCoy sucking ass as the clean up hitter and everyone begging for a guy that drives in runs (oh RBI's)

Again another reason why people need to slow down on the Sabremetrics stats and realize that the standard stats are still what defines ball players and what earns them their contracts.

I don't think an agent tells a GM well look at his UZR is the best in baseball now pay him 10 million even though he hit .180. John Macdonald would be making $15 million if they went on defensive Sabre stats.


Its impressive how bad you are at making an argument. You gave me a good laugh though.

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11-12-2012, 08:41 PM
  #297
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UZR, FIP, JPA, WHIP, OPS,

Does anyone have a decoder ring?

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11-12-2012, 08:48 PM
  #298
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As much as the Jays main website forum is a total gongshow, that place is good to read because the fans more then any other sports team in Toronto are able to make objective views on there own players and dont speak with the kind of homerism I see from Leaf and Raptor fans. I dont see why some people get so worked up when JP's shortcomings get brought up, he is what he is, a good power source but doesnt get on base, strikes out a ton and gives you below average to average defense.

I cant wait until this guy is traded and the d'Arnaud era starts.

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11-12-2012, 08:50 PM
  #299
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Originally Posted by Ohio Jones View Post
I haven't read anyone here who said advanced stats are the only things that matter, so you seem to be railing against a straw dog. Just about everyone seems to understand them as part of the picture - including the Jays. But if you think the Jays don't employ guys who think very highly of Sabremetrics and rely on them for a large part of their player evaluation and assessment, I believe you're sadly mistaken.
Honestly I'm not sure if you have numerous people on ignore or what because you keep saying things that clearly aren't true. You've done it when you said most people here liked JPA (Which is clearly not true, just look at the past few pages).

Almost all the heavy sabametric people here use it as the end all be all stats. You bring up the more traditional stats and almost always you will get someone that says they don't matter. Sometimes those same people will use those stats in seperate arguments (People here have bashed .avg and slugging in one argument for being flawed then used them to bash a player in another discussion).

I never said the Jays don't hire guys that think highly of this, but those that do all seem to be guys who know how far it goes. People here are fond of calling players "replacement level" or wrose, yet that's the biggest critique of WAR and one of the reason's baseball analysts have pointed to it's very slow and cautious adoption in the majors (Hayhurst has talked about this). What people here don't understand if no one who works in the majors takes analytics to the point that people on the sabametric sites/here do, which would be building a team. And you can look at all teams in the majors, you constantly see players bashed in sabametric circles getting strong value in trades.

And it seems there's no arguing with them because all you get in response is being called uninformed and repetition of the sabametric doctrine. The fact we have people here with the audacity to say JPA is one of the worst catchers in baseball, then pointing to his OBP, saying he's bad defensively with no real proof, while ignoring his strong points. Very few catchers have JPAs power, and his pitchers have raved about the way he handles his pitching staff, all ignored by the sabametric guys. As I've said before, if the baseball world worked like people here wished it did, JPA's value would be that of a midling relief pitcher, when in reality he's viewed as a young, above-average defensive catcher with power that most catchers do not posses.

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11-12-2012, 08:58 PM
  #300
weems
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
Honestly I'm not sure if you have numerous people on ignore or what because you keep saying things that clearly aren't true. You've done it when you said most people here liked JPA (Which is clearly not true, just look at the past few pages).

Almost all the heavy sabametric people here use it as the end all be all stats. You bring up the more traditional stats and almost always you will get someone that says they don't matter. Sometimes those same people will use those stats in seperate arguments (People here have bashed .avg and slugging in one argument for being flawed then used them to bash a player in another discussion).

I never said the Jays don't hire guys that think highly of this, but those that do all seem to be guys who know how far it goes. People here are fond of calling players "replacement level" or wrose, yet that's the biggest critique of WAR and one of the reason's baseball analysts have pointed to it's very slow and cautious adoption in the majors (Hayhurst has talked about this). What people here don't understand if no one who works in the majors takes analytics to the point that people on the sabametric sites/here do, which would be building a team. And you can look at all teams in the majors, you constantly see players bashed in sabametric circles getting strong value in trades.

And it seems there's no arguing with them because all you get in response is being called uninformed and repetition of the sabametric doctrine. The fact we have people here with the audacity to say JPA is one of the worst catchers in baseball, then pointing to his OBP, saying he's bad defensively with no real proof, while ignoring his strong points. Very few catchers have JPAs power, and his pitchers have raved about the way he handles his pitching staff, all ignored by the sabametric guys. As I've said before, if the baseball world worked like people here wished it did, JPA's value would be that of a midling relief pitcher, when in reality he's viewed as a young, above-average defensive catcher with power that most catchers do not posses.
Please show me something that proves JPA is a "above average defensive catcher".

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