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Off-season madness the 2nd: Jays get Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle, Bonifacio

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11-12-2012, 08:12 PM
  #301
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Originally Posted by weems View Post
As much as the Jays main website forum is a total gongshow, that place is good to read because the fans more then any other sports team in Toronto are able to make objective views on there own players and dont speak with the kind of homerism I see from Leaf and Raptor fans. I dont see why some people get so worked up when JP's shortcomings get brought up, he is what he is, a good power source but doesnt get on base, strikes out a ton and gives you below average to average defense.

I cant wait until this guy is traded and the d'Arnaud era starts.
Is d'Arnaud that much of an improvement?

I like JP's power.

Granted there are a few teams that would pay very well to have him come in, but who are they and what can we get?

Basically I find JP to be a decent catcher. So will this team be closer to a World Series with JP and trading d'Arnaud, or Trading JP and going forward with d'Arnaud?

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11-12-2012, 08:14 PM
  #302
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Originally Posted by charliolemieux View Post
Is d'Arnaud that much of an improvement?

I like JP's power.

Granted there are a few teams that would pay very well to have him come in, but who are they and what can we get?

Basically I find JP to be a decent catcher. So will this team be closer to a World Series with JP and trading d'Arnaud, or Trading JP and going forward with d'Arnaud?
d'Arnaud projects to be a all around better hitter and player.
His defense is better then JPA's was at the same stage.
He's more athletic and faster then JPA.

Basically all JP has over d'Arnaud in terms of skillset is power but even then d'Arnaud still has good power.

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11-12-2012, 08:22 PM
  #303
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Originally Posted by charliolemieux View Post
Is d'Arnaud that much of an improvement?

I like JP's power.

Granted there are a few teams that would pay very well to have him come in, but who are they and what can we get?

Basically I find JP to be a decent catcher. So will this team be closer to a World Series with JP and trading d'Arnaud, or Trading JP and going forward with d'Arnaud?
Consensus is that d'Arnaud doesn't have Arencibia's power, but he's a better overall hitter and a better defender.

So maybe you only get 15 homers out of him instead of 25, but you get a more impactful player all around.

The thing about JP is that basically all he has going for him is power. He's a godawful hitter in terms of contact/not making an out (especially via strikeout)/putting the ball in play, but it's overlooked generally since he's a catcher and it's a position that isn't exactly overflowing with offensive output around the league. He's much improved as a defender compared to where he started, but he's still middling at best defensively.

I really like JP as a person and a character, and I do love the power he provides, but the package that d'Arnaud can bring is just so enticing.

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11-12-2012, 08:33 PM
  #304
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Originally Posted by weems View Post
Please show me something that proves JPA is a "above average defensive catcher".
He will no doubt point to the countless major league executives that rate JPA as a strong defensive catcher, he won't cite these sources, or even give examples, but they exist nonetheless.

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11-12-2012, 08:39 PM
  #305
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Originally Posted by weems View Post
d'Arnaud projects to be a all around better hitter and player.
His defense is better then JPA's was at the same stage.
He's more athletic and faster then JPA.

Basically all JP has over d'Arnaud in terms of skillset is power but even then d'Arnaud still has good power.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
Consensus is that d'Arnaud doesn't have Arencibia's power, but he's a better overall hitter and a better defender.

So maybe you only get 15 homers out of him instead of 25, but you get a more impactful player all around.

The thing about JP is that basically all he has going for him is power. He's a godawful hitter in terms of contact/not making an out (especially via strikeout)/putting the ball in play, but it's overlooked generally since he's a catcher and it's a position that isn't exactly overflowing with offensive output around the league. He's much improved as a defender compared to where he started, but he's still middling at best defensively.

I really like JP as a person and a character, and I do love the power he provides, but the package that d'Arnaud can bring is just so enticing.
Thank YOu both.

Well one of my biggest issues with the Jays the last few years is that they need more people on base.

HR's are nice but if d'Arnaud can get on base 30-40 more times a year I'll gladly take it.

How about his arm behind the plate? JP seemed to get burned quite often.

What can we expect in return for JPA? Starting pitcher? (what a freakshow that was this year! )

Another power bat?

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11-12-2012, 08:40 PM
  #306
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Quote:
Originally Posted by charliolemieux View Post
Is d'Arnaud that much of an improvement?

I like JP's power.

Granted there are a few teams that would pay very well to have him come in, but who are they and what can we get?

Basically I find JP to be a decent catcher. So will this team be closer to a World Series with JP and trading d'Arnaud, or Trading JP and going forward with d'Arnaud?
Yes.

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11-12-2012, 08:44 PM
  #307
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Originally Posted by Scion View Post
He will no doubt point to the countless major league executives that rate JPA as a strong defensive catcher, he won't cite these sources, or even give examples, but they exist nonetheless.
I am by no means "dialed in" to the Jays, but I either watched or Listened to at least 100 or more Jays games this year.(conservative estimate)

I heard that JP was "improving" becoming "decent" but never at anytime did even the homer Jays announcers call him "above average" defensively.

I heard lots about how he needed to work on the defensive part of his game though.

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11-12-2012, 08:48 PM
  #308
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Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
Consensus is that d'Arnaud doesn't have Arencibia's power, but he's a better overall hitter and a better defender.

So maybe you only get 15 homers out of him instead of 25, but you get a more impactful player all around.

The thing about JP is that basically all he has going for him is power. He's a godawful hitter in terms of contact/not making an out (especially via strikeout)/putting the ball in play, but it's overlooked generally since he's a catcher and it's a position that isn't exactly overflowing with offensive output around the league. He's much improved as a defender compared to where he started, but he's still middling at best defensively.

I really like JP as a person and a character, and I do love the power he provides, but the package that d'Arnaud can bring is just so enticing.
Actually, with his line drive rate, iso and the way people rave about his hands, he actually may match Arencibia's power numbers. Imo if he can stay healthy, hell have the ability to post 200+ iso ratings in the majors, along with 20 to 25 HR. Completely agree with the rest of the post.

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11-12-2012, 08:55 PM
  #309
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Originally Posted by charliolemieux View Post
I am by no means "dialed in" to the Jays, but I either watched or Listened to at least 100 or more Jays games this year.(conservative estimate)

I heard that JP was "improving" becoming "decent" but never at anytime did even the homer Jays announcers call him "above average" defensively.

I heard lots about how he needed to work on the defensive part of his game though.
I was being facetious.

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11-12-2012, 08:59 PM
  #310
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JP seems to want to be here. Does Travis? WE want people who want to be here.

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11-12-2012, 09:01 PM
  #311
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I was being facetious.
I know.

I was agreeing with you.

Wasn't I?

I don't know a lot about the guys coming up, but I do know I never heard JPA being exhalted as a defensive prodigy.

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11-12-2012, 09:02 PM
  #312
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Originally Posted by charliolemieux View Post
I know.

I was agreeing with you.

Wasn't I?

I don't know a lot about the guys coming up, but I do know I never heard JPA being exhalted as a defensive prodigy.
Ah, fair enough.

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11-12-2012, 09:03 PM
  #313
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Originally Posted by oldfan2010 View Post
JP seems to want to be here. Does Travis? WE want people who want to be here.
Yes. But d'Arnaund hasn't been here yet. How do we know he won't want to stay too?

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11-12-2012, 09:09 PM
  #314
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Fair comment. I just think a unit is better than a group of individuals. The pitchers seem to want to work with him and he wants to be part of the future. Draft players seem to be more loyal to their draft team than those who have been traded/


Last edited by oldfan2010: 11-12-2012 at 09:13 PM. Reason: new thought
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11-12-2012, 09:25 PM
  #315
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Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
Honestly I'm not sure if you have numerous people on ignore or what because you keep saying things that clearly aren't true. You've done it when you said most people here liked JPA (Which is clearly not true, just look at the past few pages).

Almost all the heavy sabametric people here use it as the end all be all stats. You bring up the more traditional stats and almost always you will get someone that says they don't matter. Sometimes those same people will use those stats in seperate arguments (People here have bashed .avg and slugging in one argument for being flawed then used them to bash a player in another discussion).

I never said the Jays don't hire guys that think highly of this, but those that do all seem to be guys who know how far it goes. People here are fond of calling players "replacement level" or wrose, yet that's the biggest critique of WAR and one of the reason's baseball analysts have pointed to it's very slow and cautious adoption in the majors (Hayhurst has talked about this). What people here don't understand if no one who works in the majors takes analytics to the point that people on the sabametric sites/here do, which would be building a team. And you can look at all teams in the majors, you constantly see players bashed in sabametric circles getting strong value in trades.

And it seems there's no arguing with them because all you get in response is being called uninformed and repetition of the sabametric doctrine. The fact we have people here with the audacity to say JPA is one of the worst catchers in baseball, then pointing to his OBP, saying he's bad defensively with no real proof, while ignoring his strong points. Very few catchers have JPAs power, and his pitchers have raved about the way he handles his pitching staff, all ignored by the sabametric guys. As I've said before, if the baseball world worked like people here wished it did, JPA's value would be that of a midling relief pitcher, when in reality he's viewed as a young, above-average defensive catcher with power that most catchers do not posses.
Why do you continue to call it Sabametric?

Also, being open minded on this topic, what team(s) do you believe would rather have JP than their starting catcher?

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11-12-2012, 09:44 PM
  #316
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Originally Posted by Eyedea View Post
Why do you continue to call it Sabametric?

Also, being open minded on this topic, what team(s) do you believe would rather have JP than their starting catcher?
Texas X 2

Napoli is a FA and they are expected to DFA Soto any day now. Marlins have John Buck as their starter (until he suddenly becomes old and they have nothing). Mets have Josh (pretty much the definition of a replacement level player) Thole. The Pirates have Barajas. Washington has Jesus Flores (gag).

All of those teams (except for Texas) would see an immediate and significant upgrade by bringing in JPA (though for that matter, they would also see a huge upgrade by bringing in Mathis.

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11-12-2012, 09:46 PM
  #317
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The Rays, Cubs, Astros, Marlins, Mets, Yankees, Rangers that is just a few who could use JPA. Teams like the white sox, Red Sox might upgrade if JPA was available.

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11-12-2012, 10:00 PM
  #318
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The more I think about it, the more I want AA to target a JPA/Ike Davis swap. The Mets have Duda who can replace Ike at 1st (or they can put Murphy there) and I believe there's been talk of shopping Ike for that reason, and they don't have anyone besides Thole at C. Obviously we'd have to add something to make it work, I don't know what, but I think the two make fair trading partners.

Davis is exactly what we need to fill 1B...A LH bat, can take a walk, has power (career .209 ISO - >.235 since 2011), and is solid defensively. He's also going into his age-26 season and is controllable through 2016, and won't get arbitration until next winter. The only thing going against him is his K% at over 23% on his career, but I can live with that if he brings that 11% BB rate and power...the BABIP will normalize closer to his career avg. so I'm not too worried about that.

If AA could bring him in I'd be happier than...that kid who got his 2 front teeth for christmas (he did get them, right? lol)*


*Assuming it's in addition to the 2 pitchers we need, obviously

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11-12-2012, 10:03 PM
  #319
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7 out of 30 teams doesn't make him above average though, no?

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11-12-2012, 10:20 PM
  #320
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Who here thinks that Morrow can be an ace? Are there any stats that back up this claim?

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11-12-2012, 10:32 PM
  #321
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Originally Posted by The Amazing Ralph View Post
Who here thinks that Morrow can be an ace? Are there any stats that back up this claim?
If he pitches consistently like he did last year before getting hurt, absolutely he could be an ace. But based on his overall performance, the inconsistency he tends to show over the course of a full season paints him more like a #2 who gives you ace-like stuff part of the time.

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11-12-2012, 10:56 PM
  #322
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Originally Posted by Diamond Joe Quimby View Post
Actually, with his line drive rate, iso and the way people rave about his hands, he actually may match Arencibia's power numbers. Imo if he can stay healthy, hell have the ability to post 200+ iso ratings in the majors, along with 20 to 25 HR. Completely agree with the rest of the post.
I agree. He's got legit pop (21 HR in 424 at-bats in AA and 16 HR in 279 at-bats). Yeah, you can talk about how PCL inflates stats but I'm not sure if it inflates HR. I believe JPA has more raw power because he can just hit massive homeruns if he can get a hold off a pitch but he struggles to do that and not a guy that hits much to the gaps. d'Arnaud is more of a gap hitter with power to all fields but has enough power to hit 20 HR.

Could be a guy that hits .280 or so with 20+ HR and above average defense. That's all-star caliber type player.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Quik View Post
The more I think about it, the more I want AA to target a JPA/Ike Davis swap. The Mets have Duda who can replace Ike at 1st (or they can put Murphy there) and I believe there's been talk of shopping Ike for that reason, and they don't have anyone besides Thole at C. Obviously we'd have to add something to make it work, I don't know what, but I think the two make fair trading partners.

Davis is exactly what we need to fill 1B...A LH bat, can take a walk, has power (career .209 ISO - >.235 since 2011), and is solid defensively. He's also going into his age-26 season and is controllable through 2016, and won't get arbitration until next winter. The only thing going against him is his K% at over 23% on his career, but I can live with that if he brings that 11% BB rate and power...the BABIP will normalize closer to his career avg. so I'm not too worried about that.

If AA could bring him in I'd be happier than...that kid who got his 2 front teeth for christmas (he did get them, right? lol)*


*Assuming it's in addition to the 2 pitchers we need, obviously
That's an interesting proposal. Davis has legit power and can certainly but could be a guy that struggles to hit for average. It likely won't be as bad as last year but he's not a plus hitter but if he can hit .260, that's plenty enough with his ability to walk and hit for power. Struggles to hit lefties though.

I believe Duda won't be ready to start the season... had some injury moving the furniture (lol), I think? Hard to think they view him as a future 1B either or really a future regular in general.

I think I might do that deal if we can dump Lind elsewhere (I dunno, maybe the Mets can take him too -- will only make 5M).

I'd prefer one of 2B, OF, SP for JPA instead but sure, I would considering dealing him for a 1B too. Want an up the middle player for an up the middle guy though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Amazing Ralph View Post
Who here thinks that Morrow can be an ace? Are there any stats that back up this claim?
I think he can put up an ace type season but I'm not sure he can be a legit ace for years. Battles with consistency and I don't think the durability is there either and both of those are a must to be considered a legit ace -- reason why there are not many aces in the league. Morrow has ace stuff though.

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11-13-2012, 12:55 AM
  #323
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Originally Posted by The Amazing Ralph View Post
Who here thinks that Morrow can be an ace? Are there any stats that back up this claim?

His 2012 numbers are ace-ish. The knock on Morrow is durability. Once he's good for 200+ innings in a season he's a legit #1.

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11-13-2012, 01:06 AM
  #324
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Agree with those who said D'Arnaud could turn into 20-25 HR player. He's got legit power. He also uses the entire field and should rack up tons of doubles. Good defensively. Has an above average arm behind the plate. That's a pretty handy player right there.

Only 3 catchers hit 20 doubles and 20 HRs this season. Only 2 of them hit over .280. Yadier Molina and Buster Posey. IMO that could be D'Arnaud in his prime.

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11-13-2012, 08:16 AM
  #325
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Who here thinks that Morrow can be an ace? Are there any stats that back up this claim?
The word Ace is thrown around a lot, and is open to interpretation. So it depends what one's definition of ace is. I can tell you the way he has matured, going from being a thrower to a pitcher, makes me a believer. Qualitatively speaking.

Quantitatively speaking, his SIERA over the past three years (his time as a Blue Jay) ranks fifteenth in the league, ahead of guys like Josh Johnson, Mat Latos, Tim Lincecum, Jered Weaver, Jon Lester, Chris Carpenter, Jake Peavy, R.A. Dickey, Matt Cain, Matt Garza, and the list goes on. He's just behind David Price, and tied with Yovanny Gallardo.

Going off that same list, over the past three years, he ranks first among pitchers who have thrown at least 300 innings in K/9. That's good. What's even better is he matured this year into a pitcher who could use the ground ball to get outs and wasn't simply relying on the strikeout. His GB% jumped up to 41.1%, and his GB/FB ratio was 1.03, both the best marks of his career.

What's funny about Morrow's 2012 is that is was actually a bit of a down year with his underlying stats. However, his increased LOB%, which can be attributed to his lowered dependency on the strikeout resulted in better surface numbers. If he can continue to induce ground balls at his 2012 rate, while returning his underlying stats (fip\xfip) to his 2010\2011 norms, he'll unquestionably be an 'ace'.

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