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Off-season madness the 2nd: Jays get Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle, Bonifacio

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Old
11-12-2012, 03:13 AM
  #201
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Originally Posted by Eyedea View Post
JPA vs. Salty

Do we expect JP to command more in a trade? Or are their values in line with each other?

Similar power, average, and defence. Salty walks more, and has put up slightly better fWAR, but JP has more control.
I'd wager that there value is in line with one another, perhaps a slight edge to JPA because of his control, but that could easily be offset by Saltalamacchia's improved (albeit minimal) production.

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11-12-2012, 09:35 AM
  #202
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Asdurbal Cabrera is one of the worst defensive short stops in baseball. He really needs to change positions. Obviously nobody should be expecting a Brendan Ryan, but is even replacement level defense enough to ask for?

Jays becomes a worse team with him at a SS instead of Escobar, IMO. Middle infield defense is underrated. If you have a poor pitching staff, you need your defense to help prevent runs. This is one way of improving your pitching without actually improving your pitching.

The talk about JP being able to bring in a young pitcher sounds good. If it's possible, I am all for it. I don't rate JP at all, and consider him to be one of the worst catchers in baseball, actually. His numbers make that claim based in reality, too.
I said they move Cabrera back to 2b where he started his career and Hech at short. That would make Cabrera way better playing 2b.

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11-12-2012, 10:06 AM
  #203
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If I was AA, I wouldn't be ready to trade Rasmus yet. I want to see another season from him.

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11-12-2012, 10:28 AM
  #204
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If I was AA, I wouldn't be ready to trade Rasmus yet. I want to see another season from him.
+1. If he could bring that BA up he'd be golden.

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11-12-2012, 10:35 AM
  #205
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Originally Posted by Bob Barker View Post
If I was AA, I wouldn't be ready to trade Rasmus yet. I want to see another season from him.
No one should be ready to give up on him yet. His line drive rate is up, however, he suffered from a BABIP that is well below league average the last two seasons. He's shown an ability to create runs in the past (2010), and can reach that level, or even eclipse it again.

Any one who thinks otherwise should view the case of a similar hitter in Alex Gordon. Age 27 (2011) was the year he put things together, after four full years in the majors. Colby will be 27 in 2013, and will be going into his 5th year. If his BABIP goes back up, or even just reaches league average, and he reduces his K% 2 to 3 %, he'll be a 4 to 5 WAR player.

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11-12-2012, 11:12 AM
  #206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyedea View Post
JPA vs. Salty

Do we expect JP to command more in a trade? Or are their values in line with each other?

Similar power, average, and defence. Salty walks more, and has put up slightly better fWAR, but JP has more control.
I think JPA does. Salty has a slightly better bat right now but JPA defense is slightly better IMO. He is younger, cheaper, and cost controlled for a longer time as well. But I don't think the value is apart by a whole lot.

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11-12-2012, 11:57 AM
  #207
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Originally Posted by Epictetus View Post
The talk about JP being able to bring in a young pitcher sounds good. If it's possible, I am all for it. I don't rate JP at all, and consider him to be one of the worst catchers in baseball, actually. His numbers make that claim based in reality, too.
You won't find a single person who has a job in baseball that would agree with that. Not even sabametric inclined scouts. That's where the difference is between fans and people with jobs. They know where to draw the line with advanced stats and stop using them as a measuring sticks.

You'd get laughed out of a job if you worked for Toronto and said you think Mathis is better (Because that's what you're implying when you say what you did).

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11-12-2012, 12:10 PM
  #208
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Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
You won't find a single person who has a job in baseball that would agree with that. Not even sabametric inclined scouts. That's where the difference is between fans and people with jobs. They know where to draw the line with advanced stats and stop using them as a measuring sticks.

You'd get laughed out of a job if you worked for Toronto and said you think Mathis is better (Because that's what you're implying when you say what you did).
There's no doubt JP is better offensively than Mathis, but defensively? At this point in their careers they're both replacement level players though.

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11-12-2012, 12:14 PM
  #209
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Originally Posted by Diamond Joe Quimby View Post
No one should be ready to give up on him yet. His line drive rate is up, however, he suffered from a BABIP that is well below league average the last two seasons. He's shown an ability to create runs in the past (2010), and can reach that level, or even eclipse it again.

Any one who thinks otherwise should view the case of a similar hitter in Alex Gordon. Age 27 (2011) was the year he put things together, after four full years in the majors. Colby will be 27 in 2013, and will be going into his 5th year. If his BABIP goes back up, or even just reaches league average, and he reduces his K% 2 to 3 %, he'll be a 4 to 5 WAR player.
That is what St-Louis was waiting for and got fed up and decided to move him. It boils down to if you think Gose will be better than Rasmus long term then you move Rasmus while people still think there is potential. They cut ties with Snider before baseball people called him a bust so same should go for Rasmus.

Now if you think Rasmus is better than Gose will become then you move Gose before he shows he can't handle MLB pitching.

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11-12-2012, 12:21 PM
  #210
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That is what St-Louis was waiting for and got fed up and decided to move him. It boils down to if you think Gose will be better than Rasmus long term then you move Rasmus while people still think there is potential. They cut ties with Snider before baseball people called him a bust so same should go for Rasmus.

Now if you think Rasmus is better than Gose will become then you move Gose before he shows he can't handle MLB pitching.
That's assuming neither lives up to their potential. Which, I'll grant, is a possibility, but it's an extremely negative perspective to take. One could as easily argue that you should hold onto Rasmus while Gose continues to develop in AAA, then trade Rasmus at his highest value after a strong showing in 2013, allowing a fully ready for prime time Gose to seize the CF job.

Truth is we don't know which of those scenarios will come to pass. most likely it will be somewhere on the middle for both players. But I guess you'll never go broke selling negativity in Toronto.

EDIT: Forgot to add, one of these guys might well be traded, but it should be if they are the deciding piece in a deal for a top-flight pitcher. Otherwise it's worth it for the Jays to keep them both for now as they provide great depth at a critical position.


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Old
11-12-2012, 12:30 PM
  #211
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Originally Posted by Eyedea View Post
There's no doubt JP is better offensively than Mathis, but defensively? At this point in their careers they're both replacement level players though.
And this is where sabametrics are never, ever, going to get complete absolute acceptance in the MLB. You won't be able to convince anyone who works in baseball that JPA can be replaced by a minor league catcher and not have much difference. Dirk Hayhurst (The sabametric inclined Blue Jays analyst) brought this up when talking about WAR, said he liked that stat but thought it was far too overused, especially when trying to criticize a player or pump up a player.

He said, how can a player be replacement level when there's no player not in the majors that would be good enough to replace him with? The fact of the matter is, JPA might be called "replacement" level by WAR, but how many non-major league catchers could actually out perform him? One or two maybe.

Mathis was pretty overrated defensively, he's better at throwing people out but we saw how crappy he was at game calling (A stat not measurable besides using the pitchers stats as the guage, a strategy I think you can see is flawed). Mathis would have his pitcher unravelling and not go to calm him down. JPA would do that. Farell had to yell at pitchers more than a few times for not listening to Mathis, but that's partialy on Mathis for not going out to the mound. JPA didn't have that problem.

Sabametric stats are never going to overtake completely the traditional methods of scouting, a hybrid system they have now is more likely, because clearly sabametric's has serious evaluative problems. No person who works in baseball would think JPA is one of the worst catchers in the majors, even if sabametrics say so. There's no GMs who swear by sabametrics to the dot, they all have a hybrid system. And all would laugh at the claim that JPA is a replacement level player because numbers say so.

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11-12-2012, 12:39 PM
  #212
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Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
And this is where sabametrics are never, ever, going to get complete absolute acceptance in the MLB. You won't be able to convince anyone who works in baseball that JPA can be replaced by a minor league catcher and not have much difference. Dirk Hayhurst (The sabametric inclined Blue Jays analyst) brought this up when talking about WAR, said he liked that stat but thought it was far too overused, especially when trying to criticize a player or pump up a player.

He said, how can a player be replacement level when there's no player not in the majors that would be good enough to replace him with? The fact of the matter is, JPA might be called "replacement" level by WAR, but how many non-major league catchers could actually out perform him? One or two maybe.

Mathis was pretty overrated defensively, he's better at throwing people out but we saw how crappy he was at game calling (A stat not measurable besides using the pitchers stats as the guage, a strategy I think you can see is flawed). Mathis would have his pitcher unravelling and not go to calm him down. JPA would do that. Farell had to yell at pitchers more than a few times for not listening to Mathis, but that's partialy on Mathis for not going out to the mound. JPA didn't have that problem.

Sabametric stats are never going to overtake completely the traditional methods of scouting, a hybrid system they have now is more likely, because clearly sabametric's has serious evaluative problems. No person who works in baseball would think JPA is one of the worst catchers in the majors, even if sabametrics say so. There's no GMs who swear by sabametrics to the dot, they all have a hybrid system. And all would laugh at the claim that JPA is a replacement level player because numbers say so.
The Jays don't let their catchers call games for the most part. It is one of the biggest benefits to losing Farrell.

And JPA is slightly above replacement. His strikeouts nullify almost all the value he creates. The fact that there are a couple of guys that could come in and produce roughly the same thing should demonstrate that.

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11-12-2012, 12:55 PM
  #213
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http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...kings-catcher/

The guys who produced less value are Avila, Suzuki, Soto, Hanigan, Buck, Barajas and Thole. Pretty much a who's who of guys who aren't good at all.

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11-12-2012, 01:06 PM
  #214
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http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...kings-catcher/

The guys who produced less value are Avila, Suzuki, Soto, Hanigan, Buck, Barajas and Thole. Pretty much a who's who of guys who aren't good at all.
That is a fantasy baseball site. So the best team in baseball acquire Kurt Suzuki to stabilize their catching position prior to going to the playoffs but by your stats they should have never gone there.

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11-12-2012, 01:10 PM
  #215
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That is a fantasy baseball site. So the best team in baseball acquire Kurt Suzuki to stabilize their catching position prior to going to the playoffs but by your stats they should have never gone there.
Or he is a decent backup given that only 26 catchers posted 350+ AB

JPA has value, but it is as a backup (much like Mathis) and because of his contract/age. Until his K and BB% get better, he isn't even an average catcher.

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11-12-2012, 01:12 PM
  #216
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That's assuming neither lives up to their potential. Which, I'll grant, is a possibility, but it's an extremely negative perspective to take. One could as easily argue that you should hold onto Rasmus while Gose continues to develop in AAA, then trade Rasmus at his highest value after a strong showing in 2013, allowing a fully ready for prime time Gose to seize the CF job.

Truth is we don't know which of those scenarios will come to pass. most likely it will be somewhere on the middle for both players. But I guess you'll never go broke selling negativity in Toronto.

EDIT: Forgot to add, one of these guys might well be traded, but it should be if they are the deciding piece in a deal for a top-flight pitcher. Otherwise it's worth it for the Jays to keep them both for now as they provide great depth at a critical position.

I would move Gose and JPA, Hech to the Cubs as part of a blockbuster with the Cubs for Garza and Castro plus other parts to make it work

Prime example where you are upgrading at SS, P. Escobar could be moved in another deal to get another pitcher.

Use your depth to acquire pieces needed

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11-12-2012, 01:15 PM
  #217
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I would move Gose and JPA, Hech to the Cubs as part of a blockbuster with the Cubs for Garza and Castro plus other parts to make it work

Prime example where you are upgrading at SS, P. Escobar could be moved in another deal to get another pitcher.

Use your depth to acquire pieces needed
I'd think those "other pieces" would need to be quite significant.

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11-12-2012, 01:23 PM
  #218
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I'd think those "other pieces" would need to be quite significant.
on who's side?

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11-12-2012, 01:25 PM
  #219
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I would move Gose and JPA, Hech to the Cubs as part of a blockbuster with the Cubs for Garza and Castro plus other parts to make it work

Prime example where you are upgrading at SS, P. Escobar could be moved in another deal to get another pitcher.

Use your depth to acquire pieces needed
Cubs wouldn't do that. They locked up Castro this past season for a long contract. It would take a lot to get Castro.

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11-12-2012, 01:27 PM
  #220
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on who's side?
On the Jays' side. I'm no expert, just my opinion. I think Castro is probably very very highly valued by the Cubs.

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11-12-2012, 01:27 PM
  #221
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You won't find a single person who has a job in baseball that would agree with that. Not even sabametric inclined scouts. That's where the difference is between fans and people with jobs. They know where to draw the line with advanced stats and stop using them as a measuring sticks.
You don't need advanced stats to see that Arencibia is not a good baseball player. He strikes out nearly 30% of the time, isn't great defensively (but he's improving!), walks less than 5% of the time, and has a horrid plate discipline.

The only thing he has going for himself is power, but it's not nearly enough to justify any of the above.

I'll take a catcher who can hit .260 and post an OBP between .320-330 over Arencibia.

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You'd get laughed out of a job if you worked for Toronto and said you think Mathis is better (Because that's what you're implying when you say what you did).
Because JP and Mathis are both replacement level players, I am getting rid of JP to play Mathis?

Ok.

Where have I argued that Mathis is a good baseball player? Because, he too needs to shape up or ship out.

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I said they move Cabrera back to 2b where he started his career and Hech at short. That would make Cabrera way better playing 2b.
I don't know if this will make a difference, but it's interesting nonetheless.

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11-12-2012, 01:27 PM
  #222
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Cubs wouldn't do that. They locked up Castro this past season for a long contract. It would take a lot to get Castro.
I used to live in Chicago and have been following their offseason and talking to my buddies and they are looking at moving Castro to speed up the rebuild process. They have a Javier Baez who is almost ready and is pretty similar to Castro but could be suited to play 3B if the Cubs did get a guy like Hech back in a deal.

Epstein is not afraid of trading his franchise shortstop in order to get better ask Nomar.

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11-12-2012, 01:28 PM
  #223
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I used to live in Chicago and have been following their offseason and talking to my buddies and they are looking at moving Castro to speed up the rebuild process. They have a Javier Baez who is almost ready and is pretty similar to Castro but could be suited to play 3B if the Cubs did get a guy like Hech back in a deal.

Epstein is not afraid of trading his franchise shortstop in order to get better ask Nomar.
Source?

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11-12-2012, 01:48 PM
  #224
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Source?
Pretty sure "they" refers to his buddies, not the Cubs. All just speculation based on Epstein's Red Sox history. Doesn't mean it's baseless speculation, but nobody has indicated Castro is on the market.

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11-12-2012, 01:48 PM
  #225
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Two problems jump out to me. They can't be making big position player deals until pitching has been addressed, in case they need one of those assets to complete a deal for a starter.

If we assume for argument's sake that pitching has been dealt with, you're still not going to trade for Choo. Don't get me wrong, he's a very strong player (although he struggles against LHP). But he's only got one year left on his deal, and he's a Scott Boras client, so he's almost certain to walk as a Free Agent. Can't afford to trade valuable assets for a rental.
I agree pitching should be a priority, but once we address this I would love to turn to a possible Shin-soo Choo trade.

Choo is so under rated, I used to think he was just a blue Jay killer,but really he's a top player in the game. I don't even care if he's a Boras client, as of next year Shin Soo choo will be one of the best for your bang buck players.

Our weakness in our offence is getting guys OBP. Choo has a career OBP higher than Ichiro... That is insane. In over 2500 at bats he has a remarkable .381 OBP. That stat is a little flawed considering Ichiro has way more AB's but it's telling as to how good the guy is at getting OBP.

If he could be traded for he would be my number one target. I'd rather give Choo 13 - 15 million a year than Hamilton 25 million a year.

Choo could solve LF for us and we add a potent bat for cheap as of next year. If he does good, Rogers will surely give AA the green light to give Choo the money next year. He could slot in at #2, #3 or #5. Jose and EE will have that many more RBI opportunities.

He isn't a big name player with All star written over him but he does everything we need. I would love to add Choo.


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