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Old
12-15-2012, 02:31 PM
  #251
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Wheeler and Harvey are untouchable, so not them. Niese could probably be had, but honestly he's overrated. According to some sources:

Mike Puma ‏@NYPost_Mets
As of this morning, the Dickey trade was going to include 7 players. Four coming to the Mets and three going to Jays.

Mike Puma ‏@NYPost_Mets
Hearing the Jays want a catcher back. Could be Thole.

Mike Puma ‏@NYPost_Mets
If Thole goes, Mets could bring back a second catcher in the deal, I'm told. Probably John Buck.

Still don't like it. Mets don't really have other pieces we'd consider taking. Ugh dreading us giving up TDA.
Well, the rumour is apparently Synergaard + Buck + D'Arnaud + another piece, so if you don't get either Harvey or Wheeler back you have an epic fail on your hands.

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12-15-2012, 02:34 PM
  #252
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If this actually happens, the Jays will have traded 4 of their top 5 prospects in the span of a month or so....

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12-15-2012, 03:00 PM
  #253
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Well, the rumour is apparently Synergaard + Buck + D'Arnaud + another piece, so if you don't get either Harvey or Wheeler back you have an epic fail on your hands.
Unless you also get Wright. If you get Wright then it makes sense. Wright to 3rd, Lawrie to 1st, Edwin to DH.

Lind to trade.

Dickey + Wright makes this team world series contenders.

Pipe dream though as Wright was signed earlier this month.

Gaaaah don't want to give up TDA and Syndergaard for Dickey and rubbish.

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12-15-2012, 03:29 PM
  #254
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Unless you also get Wright. If you get Wright then it makes sense. Wright to 3rd, Lawrie to 1st, Edwin to DH.

Lind to trade.

Dickey + Wright makes this team world series contenders.

Pipe dream though as Wright was signed earlier this month.

Gaaaah don't want to give up TDA and Syndergaard for Dickey and rubbish.
AA is not going to blow up his cupboard unless he is very sure that he's got a playoff team for the next 2 seasons minimum. Rogers I'm sure is very aware of what a run to even the 2nd round of the playoffs would do for the Jays in Toronto.

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12-15-2012, 04:59 PM
  #255
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If this actually happens, the Jays will have traded 4 of their top 5 prospects in the span of a month or so....
...and if it gets them a World Series no one will care. There's no doubt it is a move that is a bit of a risk, but it appears RAD is interested in signing an extension wherever he lands which wouldn't make giving up a top prospect as hard to swallow. At the end of the day you have to look at it from various angles....

1). How much better can TDA be than JPA? Projections would suggest around .030 to .040 points higher in average, similar power and better D. But what is the timeline for him to surpass JPA? 2 years? 3? Bautista is on a beauty contract, JJ likely goes free agency. The window of opportunity may outweigh the long term benefits of keeping a prospect like TDA.

2). How much better can RAD be than rolling with a guy like Villaneuva? In my opinion, at least 7 more wins, which could be the difference between wild card and division crown. It seems everyone is looking for a reason RAD won't work out, when really all you see from this guy is a pitcher who has perfected the knuckleball (throwing it considerably harder than any of his predecessors). He also has had a very tedious path to establishing himself and I think he realizes how hard he must continue to work to maintain it. He just seems like a real smart, calm, hard working player that is a key cog to a championship team.

To me it's a no brainer. You get the chance to acquire a guy like this, you better do it.

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12-15-2012, 05:13 PM
  #256
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...and if it gets them a World Series no one will care. There's no doubt it is a move that is a bit of a risk, but it appears RAD is interested in signing an extension wherever he lands which wouldn't make giving up a top prospect as hard to swallow. At the end of the day you have to look at it from various angles....

1). How much better can TDA be than JPA? Projections would suggest around .030 to .040 points higher in average, similar power and better D. But what is the timeline for him to surpass JPA? 2 years? 3? Bautista is on a beauty contract, JJ likely goes free agency. The window of opportunity may outweigh the long term benefits of keeping a prospect like TDA.

2). How much better can RAD be than rolling with a guy like Villaneuva? In my opinion, at least 7 more wins, which could be the difference between wild card and division crown. It seems everyone is looking for a reason RAD won't work out, when really all you see from this guy is a pitcher who has perfected the knuckleball (throwing it considerably harder than any of his predecessors). He also has had a very tedious path to establishing himself and I think he realizes how hard he must continue to work to maintain it. He just seems like a real smart, calm, hard working player that is a key cog to a championship team.

To me it's a no brainer. You get the chance to acquire a guy like this, you better do it.
Sure, they win a World Series and everything is forgotten. However, the problem is you see teams like Texas, NYY, Boston, and Detroit spending massive amount of money year after year and not end up winning.

There's too much pressure to try to only have a small window to win a WS.

If you're going to trade away all of your best prospects, you better be committed to spending cash for the next 10+ years. My biggest worry is if you have a 3-5 year window and don't win, you better not be trading picks as well or draft poorly or you a back into mediocrity for another decade.

I agree on the RA point, he is a bigger upgrade. That being said, I think you are underestimating the bat upgrade D'Arnaud could be over JP.

IMO, D'Arnaud has .300 potential, he'a a much better contact hitter than JP, and JP is a career guy below .225, that's a lot more than .30-.40 points.

That being said, that's still "potential", so I guess it comes down to whether they think they can win relatively soon with this roster. If they don't win next year and lose JJ their chances go down.

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12-15-2012, 05:31 PM
  #257
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Sure, they win a World Series and everything is forgotten. However, the problem is you see teams like Texas, NYY, Boston, and Detroit spending massive amount of money year after year and not end up winning.

There's too much pressure to try to only have a small window to win a WS.

If you're going to trade away all of your best prospects, you better be committed to spending cash for the next 10+ years. My biggest worry is if you have a 3-5 year window and don't win, you better not be trading picks as well or draft poorly or you a back into mediocrity for another decade.

I agree on the RA point, he is a bigger upgrade. That being said, I think you are underestimating the bat upgrade D'Arnaud could be over JP.

IMO, D'Arnaud has .300 potential, he'a a much better contact hitter than JP, and JP is a career guy below .225, that's a lot more than .30-.40 points.

That being said, that's still "potential", so I guess it comes down to whether they think they can win relatively soon with this roster. If they don't win next year and lose JJ their chances go down.
You don't even need to win the World Series in Toronto though. They make it to the ALCS and people are going to be going crazy in Toronto for the Jays. It will be crazy there like it was in 92.

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12-15-2012, 05:34 PM
  #258
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Moving D'Arnaud is scary to me given that he could be an elite player at that position for the next decade plus. On the other hand, I really like Dickey and I am fairly confident he will continue to find success over the next few seasons. It's not like he's a one-season wonder - his numbers over the past three seasons where he has started are outstanding.

What really worries me is the talk of including Noah Syndergaard in the deal. I really like his makeup and I think it's entirely possible he ends up developing into a front-of-the-rotation starter a few years down the line.

It sounds like Dickey and Thole are two of the pieces coming back. I actually don't mind Thole as he is still relatively young and it looks like he has a good eye. I think he could make a decent platoon hitter at the bottom of the order if he can get his average back up to a respectable level.

Where this deal will really be decided for me is on the third player potentially involved on New York's end. It might be a long-shot but I'd love to see the team push for Ike Davis. His OPS wasn't great last year but if you take out his first two months of the season, he put up monster numbers including a crapload of homeruns. I'm not sold on Lind regaining his form so I'd view him as an upgrade at first (allowing Encarnacion to play DH).

Reyes
Cabrera
Bautista
Encarnacion
I. Davis
Lawrie
Rasmus
Arencibia
Bonafacio

That is a pretty strong lineup with a number of guys who should improve on their raw numbers last year (Arencibia, Bonafacio, Rasmus, Lawrie, and Davis).

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12-15-2012, 08:08 PM
  #259
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...and if it gets them a World Series no one will care. There's no doubt it is a move that is a bit of a risk, but it appears RAD is interested in signing an extension wherever he lands which wouldn't make giving up a top prospect as hard to swallow. At the end of the day you have to look at it from various angles....

1). How much better can TDA be than JPA? Projections would suggest around .030 to .040 points higher in average, similar power and better D. But what is the timeline for him to surpass JPA? 2 years? 3? Bautista is on a beauty contract, JJ likely goes free agency. The window of opportunity may outweigh the long term benefits of keeping a prospect like TDA.

2). How much better can RAD be than rolling with a guy like Villaneuva? In my opinion, at least 7 more wins, which could be the difference between wild card and division crown. It seems everyone is looking for a reason RAD won't work out, when really all you see from this guy is a pitcher who has perfected the knuckleball (throwing it considerably harder than any of his predecessors). He also has had a very tedious path to establishing himself and I think he realizes how hard he must continue to work to maintain it. He just seems like a real smart, calm, hard working player that is a key cog to a championship team.

To me it's a no brainer. You get the chance to acquire a guy like this, you better do it.
1.) The places I've seen have TDA as a .280-.290 hitter, a good OBP, 20ish HR's and a good number of doubles.

Currently JPA is a 20(ish) HR guy, crappy avg, crappy OBP, K's a ton and doesn't have many other XBH's other than HR's.

TDA's potential is an allstar catcher and production from a position in the MLB that doesn't have much quality. In terms of when he's ready, he's maximum a year from making an impact, realistically he'll be up this year.

You bring up the Bautista the contract, TDA could be an elite player for us, one to pair with Lawrie going forward if we don't win. You don't trade that.

2.) RAD is an upgrade over CV, no doubt. The problem is pitching in the NL is different from pitching the AL. Especially the AL East. There have been numerous cases where pitchers do notably better in the NL than the AL. And just because he's had a hard road and works hard doesn't mean his success will be maintained. We're talking about a 38 year old pitcher who figured it out 3 years ago. His body isn't a machine, it'll break down. I do not want to give up a potential elite level catcher for a guy who we hope can find success hear in a short window.

It's not a simple no brainer. It has significant risk, especially when giving up a prospect of TDA's stature.

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You don't even need to win the World Series in Toronto though. They make it to the ALCS and people are going to be going crazy in Toronto for the Jays. It will be crazy there like it was in 92.
If your giving 2 top prospects as rumoured, Syndergaard and TDA, I hope you don't aim for only an ALCS appearance to try make the fan base happy.

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12-15-2012, 08:15 PM
  #260
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If your giving 2 top prospects as rumoured, Syndergaard and TDA, I hope you don't aim for only an ALCS appearance to try make the fan base happy.
In Toronto it would. Do you know how starved that city is for some playoff success even just a bit? Say they won the penant, and then the ALDS this year. Most fans would forget both prospects, especially the ones that are going to fill the Rogers Center. And that's something that you don't see anymore outside of a handful of weekends a year now. If they could be a strong top team all summer and be running a full crowd, even the media will forget about it.

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12-15-2012, 08:27 PM
  #261
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In Toronto it would. Do you know how starved that city is for some playoff success even just a bit? Say they won the penant, and then the ALDS this year. Most fans would forget both prospects, especially the ones that are going to fill the Rogers Center. And that's something that you don't see anymore outside of a handful of weekends a year now. If they could be a strong top team all summer and be running a full crowd, even the media will forget about it.

That's so extremely short sighted, I really hope AA doesn't consider it.

One good playoff run in return for 2 prospects who could be staples of any franchise makes no sense. Trying to appease your fans just to throw away your future is a ridiculous notion.

You say fans are starved for a playoff run? Imagine yearly contending with TDA behind the plate and being a top catcher in the MLB for the next decade.

Now imagine giving that away and watching the Mets benefit from that for a long time. It's like the Kessel deal, except in this scenario Kessel is like 30.

Trying to build excitement for the Jays is one thing, but sacrificing your future and a significant part at that for the short term is another.

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12-15-2012, 08:45 PM
  #262
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That's so extremely short sighted, I really hope AA doesn't consider it.

One good playoff run in return for 2 prospects who could be staples of any franchise makes no sense. Trying to appease your fans just to throw away your future is a ridiculous notion.

You say fans are starved for a playoff run? Imagine yearly contending with TDA behind the plate and being a top catcher in the MLB for the next decade.

Now imagine giving that away and watching the Mets benefit from that for a long time. It's like the Kessel deal, except in this scenario Kessel is like 30.

Trying to build excitement for the Jays is one thing, but sacrificing your future and a significant part at that for the short term is another.
I don't think 1 would do it, they would definitely need 2 solid playoff years to make people totally forgive the trade.

Trust me, I know it's shortsighted, but it's also the state of the mid-market MLB team which Toronto always has been, every once in a while to keep your fan base somewhat loyal you need to treat them to a playoff run. Because Toronto has tried the whole "groom top picks" thing before and had it not work out.

The Blue Jays have been a sad team for a long time, it's really time for that to change. And success will bring new players in. You win, make money, sign new guys to replace your old guys. Rinse, repeat. That's how you win in baseball now.

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12-15-2012, 08:49 PM
  #263
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It's the equivalent of trading Schultz and Yakupov for 3 years of playoffs, followed by a decade of steady decline.

Only difference is best players on Jays are older than those on the Oilers, meaning if they don't win in this short window it could be more of the same for the next 20 years.

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12-15-2012, 09:12 PM
  #264
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that line up has a bit of everything. I like it a lot. A good mix of youth and potential. Lawrie's gotta improve next season. As for the Dickie trade, something tells me the guy is a bit of a one and done. Although maybe not, he is a very high character guy who has battled for a long time in his career. Who knows. I guess I wouldn't mind that deal but not at the expense of their prize prospect, for the soon to be 39 year old.

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12-15-2012, 09:41 PM
  #265
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I'm definitely a little worried if they end up moving D'Arnaud AND Syndergaard. Those are two elite prospects who will likely both be ranked in the top 50 in BA's next prospect rankings. Syndergaard has three good pitches already and at least two of them project to be plus pitches. Given he can get the radar gun up to triple digits, I'm really nervous about moving him.

I would hope that if he is on the move, another really solid piece would be included in this deal (although it sounds like it won't be an elite prospect - possibly someone like Montero).

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12-15-2012, 10:45 PM
  #266
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I'm definitely a little worried if they end up moving D'Arnaud AND Syndergaard. Those are two elite prospects who will likely both be ranked in the top 50 in BA's next prospect rankings. Syndergaard has three good pitches already and at least two of them project to be plus pitches. Given he can get the radar gun up to triple digits, I'm really nervous about moving him.

I would hope that if he is on the move, another really solid piece would be included in this deal (although it sounds like it won't be an elite prospect - possibly someone like Montero).
This is like a ****ing King Felix type of package, not RA Dickey. This is getting beyond ridiculous IMO.

Initially when I heard D'Arnaud + Syndergaard, I figured we would be getting another great piece in addition to Dickey.

Now I just get the feeling AA thinks Dickey will be THAT good the next 3 years, i.e. potential CY Young candidate again and again. Count me in the list of people that are skeptical moving forward.

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12-16-2012, 02:02 AM
  #267
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It's the equivalent of trading Schultz and Yakupov for 3 years of playoffs, followed by a decade of steady decline.

Only difference is best players on Jays are older than those on the Oilers, meaning if they don't win in this short window it could be more of the same for the next 20 years.
Eh, it's different in baseball. In baseball a team can spend to its hearts desire. If you think that you can make a charge for a championship then you go for it. The Blue Jays prospect pool was pretty barren under Ricciardi and AA managed to replenish that pool fairly quickly. It's not a big deal if you're winning.

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12-16-2012, 02:44 AM
  #268
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12-16-2012, 10:31 AM
  #269
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Eh, it's different in baseball. In baseball a team can spend to its hearts desire. If you think that you can make a charge for a championship then you go for it. The Blue Jays prospect pool was pretty barren under Ricciardi and AA managed to replenish that pool fairly quickly. It's not a big deal if you're winning.
If from here on they're willing to spend and trade at will for a decade or more I'm fine with it while the pool is replenished again.

My concern is this: they unload 4 of their top 5 prospects, spend to the max, make multiple blockbuster deals, and then don't win the next 2-3 years.

Well, that's ok if they're still willing to keep at it, but ownership has proven to be very cheap in the past, what if they say "look AA, you spent like crazy for 3 years and didn't win, we are going back to the old model of development". That would be a huge blue since the pool would be weak and guys like JJ, Cabrera, and Dickey may all be gone, perhaps others as well.

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12-16-2012, 11:49 AM
  #270
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This is like a ****ing King Felix type of package, not RA Dickey. This is getting beyond ridiculous IMO.

Initially when I heard D'Arnaud + Syndergaard, I figured we would be getting another great piece in addition to Dickey.

Now I just get the feeling AA thinks Dickey will be THAT good the next 3 years, i.e. potential CY Young candidate again and again. Count me in the list of people that are skeptical moving forward.
Yeah, I'm skeptical given the pieces we are potentially moving. I'd be fine with just D'Arnaud but adding in Syndegaard is getting a little crazy.

I'd love to see Anthopolous offer a package of D'Arnaud, Syndegaard, and Gose around the league and see what bites we'd get. Heck, I wouldn't be shocked at all if Seattle would potentially be willing to move King Felix for three top 5 prospects and he's a front-end ace who is only 26.

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12-16-2012, 11:54 AM
  #271
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If from here on they're willing to spend and trade at will for a decade or more I'm fine with it while the pool is replenished again.

My concern is this: they unload 4 of their top 5 prospects, spend to the max, make multiple blockbuster deals, and then don't win the next 2-3 years.

Well, that's ok if they're still willing to keep at it, but ownership has proven to be very cheap in the past, what if they say "look AA, you spent like crazy for 3 years and didn't win, we are going back to the old model of development". That would be a huge blue since the pool would be weak and guys like JJ, Cabrera, and Dickey may all be gone, perhaps others as well.
Yeah, but with the way the Jays have ran their prospects historically, we won't have the pitching by the time they are ready to make an impact. Baseball is not a sport that you wait around on your prospects to develop. Otherwise you are just hanging around waiting for results. Hey remember when we had rookie of the year Eric Hinske? How'd that end up turning out?

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12-16-2012, 04:14 PM
  #272
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Yeah, but with the way the Jays have ran their prospects historically, we won't have the pitching by the time they are ready to make an impact. Baseball is not a sport that you wait around on your prospects to develop. Otherwise you are just hanging around waiting for results. Hey remember when we had rookie of the year Eric Hinske? How'd that end up turning out?
Just came to post a similar point. The overvaluing of prospects on this topic is kind of funny. Remember how Philly balked at including Drabek in a deal for Halladay, to the point that the Phillies missed out on him at the 2009 trade deadline (they end up losing in the WS against the Yanks). In the end they pay the price anyways, but the hesitation to do so may have cost them a WS. Drabek was the prize possession of that package and has yet to prove anything.

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12-16-2012, 04:32 PM
  #273
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I don't think anyone is really questioning whether the Jays should look to improve and make a run this year.

You don't overpay just for the sake of trying to improve.

The Jays got less than this for Halladay when he was traded, and he was younger and more proven.

That being said, Drabek was the piece they liked and D'Arnaud was secondary, yet we all know how that turned out, so of course the argument could be made that the outcome of prospects is pretty unpredictable.

I just simply do not want to overpay for a 38 year old pitcher.

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12-16-2012, 04:37 PM
  #274
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That's so extremely short sighted, I really hope AA doesn't consider it.

One good playoff run in return for 2 prospects who could be staples of any franchise makes no sense. Trying to appease your fans just to throw away your future is a ridiculous notion.

You say fans are starved for a playoff run? Imagine yearly contending with TDA behind the plate and being a top catcher in the MLB for the next decade.
Uh, TDA is going to singlehandedly make them a contender? Even if he were able to meet the lofty potential people like you and SDig have placed on him ( a huge if), some of the current pieces would be gone by that time. You make one big run and you are much more likely to retain your players/entice free agents. What do you think would entice Johnson to sign an extension more, acquiring a potential final piece to a championship calibre team or holding onto a top prospect?

@SDig, you truly believe the difference between JPA and TDA batting average would be more than what I suggested? Do you recall that JPA hit .301 with 32 HRs and 85 RBIs in his final season in Vegas (24 yrs old)? I'm sure everyone had him pegged to put up better BA numbers based on that as well. My point in a previous point was the gap between a reigning Cy Young winner and Villaneuva was much larger than JPA and TDA. I mean, JPA is still only 26 (3 years older than TDA). We're not talking about making a choice between TDA and John Buck.

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12-16-2012, 04:51 PM
  #275
SDig14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roof Daddy View Post
Uh, TDA is going to singlehandedly make them a contender? Even if he were able to meet the lofty potential people like you and SDig have placed on him ( a huge if), some of the current pieces would be gone by that time. You make one big run and you are much more likely to retain your players/entice free agents. What do you think would entice Johnson to sign an extension more, acquiring a potential final piece to a championship calibre team or holding onto a top prospect?

@SDig, you truly believe the difference between JPA and TDA batting average would be more than what I suggested? Do you recall that JPA hit .301 with 32 HRs and 85 RBIs in his final season in Vegas (24 yrs old)? I'm sure everyone had him pegged to put up better BA numbers based on that as well. My point in a previous point was the gap between a reigning Cy Young winner and Villaneuva was much larger than JPA and TDA. I mean, JPA is still only 26 (3 years older than TDA). We're not talking about making a choice between TDA and John Buck.
The problem is JP is just a bad contact hitter, which is why his numbers haven't translated against pitchers with much better stuff.

It's higher BA, OPS, better fielding (though neither are great), and a better arm.

I agree, the difference between Dickey and Villanueva > the difference between JPA and D'Arnaud right now.

I just don't think Dickey is what will make them a contender. IMO, they were a potential division winner before this trade, why not wait and see how the season goes? You can always add an arm at the trade deadline or earlier if you have injuries or you think you have a world series contender.

I guess my point is I think there are ways to get better and not have to give up 2 of your top 3 prospects before the season even starts.

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