I absolutely hate looking at stats in detail for these arguments. It's more about a feeling...do you feel that Dave Andrechyuk was a prestigious star for any number of years for example? I'm very relaxed when it comes to HOF criteria and I'd probably induct 15-20 players right now but even I wouldn't induct Andrechyuk because the guy was never elite. He was just someone who kept putting up good numbers consistently, that to me doesn't scream "fame" and it's not like he was a perennial winner (I don't buy the you need to win trophies or cups argument but it does help you become famous and he only won one cup I think where he had a role but wasn't the main go-to guy). I really don't think the HOF committee is gonna use detailed detailed stats to determine who gets in when comparing two guys, I'd guess they each go on personal bias shaped by who they felt was a true star and somewhat on stats.
This is the same reason why Iginla will get in even if he never wins a cup, guy's been considered one of the best fwds in the best fwds in the for several years (decline now I guess). Thornton's stock has gone down of course lately but he's done enough in the past assuming they look past playoff performances that he'd get a serious look due to being one of the league's best fwds for a decent length of time before. He'd probably be considered similar to an Adam Oates type, probably not first ballot.
07-08 5.56 NHL GPG; OTW 3.18GF, 3.01GA; Spezza 76GP, 34-58-92
08-09 5.83 NHL GPG; OTW 2.65GF, 2.89GA; Spezza 82GP, 32-41-73
09-10 5.68 NHL GPG; OTW 2.74GF, 2.90GA; Spezza 60GP, 23-34-57
10-11 5.59 NHL GPG; OTW 2.34GF, 3.05GA; Spezza 62GP, 21-36-57
11-12 5.46 NHL GPG; OTW 3.04GF, 2.93GA; Spezza 80GP, 34-50-84
Notice how all of Spezza's best seasons have much higher average GPG? Not to mention defensemen like Gonchar, Chara, and Karlsson to play with or linemates like Heatley and Alfredsson at their very best. Yashin was scoring close to or above PPG when the average league scoring was around 5.25 GPG. Spezza needed it to be closer to 5.6 or 5.7 to put up similar numbers, and on a much stronger offensive team.
Ok, now do this again properly.
GPG is a rate. PPG is alo a rate. It makes sense to compare them. Not to try hide the point by showing peak full season stats that tell us that Yashin stayed healthier in his prime.
Also, I have no idea why you keep bringing up Hossa or 02-04. Spezza didn't play with Hossa. More importantly; he only played 33 games in 02-03 and only had 55 points in 03-04... so nobody is going to use these seasons to argue that Spezza is better than Yashin.
Btw; Spezza's had a higher PPG rate than Heatley for 6 of the past 7 seasons, including every season that they played together in Ottawa.
and Jagr are the only locks I can imagine. The rest, I'd say have a >80% chance. Crosby is a lock if he can stay healthy.
Ovechkin has five consecutive first-team selections, followed by a second team selection, and then a third-place finish in voting. He has two Harts, a Ross, a Calder, and three Lindsays. He has 339-340-679 in 553. He's one of only 33 players to score 0.50GPG or better with 20 games played. Only 27 with 20 since O6. And 19 since the 1967 expansion. And only nine players ever have scored goals at a higher rate, Wayne Gretzky not being among them.
Ovechkin is in the Hall if he retires right now; he's accomplished more than most do in their career. He's 56 goals and 15 points behind Cam Neely's career total in 176 fewer games. With two more Hart trophies, three more Lindsays, a Ross, a Calder, and more and better All-Star selections. Cam Neely is basically a borderline "is he, isn't he?" guy. Ovechkin blows past that level easily.