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02-06-2013, 03:54 PM
  #51
ThaDevilGirl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KevFist View Post
My area of specialty is Operational Meteorology with an emphasis on situational short-term forecasting. I'd be willing to break down some of the products from the Storm prediction Center mesoanalysis if anyone's interested. I could start a new thread and talk about a product every few days.
I'd be interested in reading your thoughts, although I don't know how much I can contribute as I forecast in Canada and we don't pay much attention to significant convective weather in the US, unless it's close to the border.

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Originally Posted by Richards to Gaborik View Post
Boston is going to get absolutely smoked friday/saturday. wow
And tonight

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02-19-2013, 03:47 PM
  #52
LadyStanley
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NOAAComms 1:36pm via TweetDeck MEDIA: On 2/21, federal experts to give outlook of 2013 #drought & predicted impacts on ag, water resources 1.usa.gov/11TAGzo#NIDIS

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02-22-2013, 04:40 PM
  #53
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NWS Meteorology Products

In another thread, I said I'm break down the products in the Storm Prediction Center's Mesoanalysis section. For those of you interested in Operational Meteorology/Tornadogenesis/Mesoscale development/Storm chasing, these are some very valuable tools for getting a handle on what we call "Nowcasting." These products can change very quickly, so it's imporant to understand how they work....

All of these products are found on the Mesoanalysis page of the Storm Prediction Center's website....
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

I tried to find an equivilant product for Canada, but no luck. If you know where it is, let me know!

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02-22-2013, 04:58 PM
  #54
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The first place I usually look when severe weather is expected is a Wind Shear product known as "SR Helicity-Effective." This is how SPC defines SRH-Effective.

Quote:
Effective SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is based on threshold values of lifted parcel CAPE (100 J kg-1) and CIN (-250 J kg-1). These parcel constraints are meant to confine the SRH layer calculation to the part of a sounding where lifted parcels are buoyant, but not strongly capped. For example, a supercell forms or moves over an area where the most unstable parcels are located a couple of thousand feet above the ground, and stable air is located at ground level. The question then becomes "how much of the cool air can the supercell ingest and still survive?" Our estimate is to start with the surface parcel level, and work upward until a lifted parcel's CAPE value increases to 100 Jkg-1 or more, with an associated CIN greater than -250 Jkg-1. From the level meeting the constraints (the "effective surface"), we continue to look upward in the sounding until a lifted parcel has a CAPE less than 100 Jkg-1 OR a CIN less than -250 J kg-1. Of the three SRH calculations displayed on the SPC mesoanalysis page, effective SRH discriminates the best between significant tornadic and nontornadic supercells.
Basically, Helicity Index is a measure of how much lifting energy there is in the atmosphere. The higher Helicity index gets, the more chance there is for rotation to develop. Generally, Helicity Index over 150 is cause for concern. Here's a shot of the current SRH-relative product for my region, which is region 18....



I've circled areas of concern regarding the SRH. you'll notice how storms are developing in those areas with the higher index. by using the Multi-Parameter field of LCL Height and SRH, we get a better idea on strength of development. LCL tells us where the cloud base is....Lower LCL means lower cloud base. Combine that with high helicity, and it means tornados are more likely to spin up. If you compare that against the Significant Tornado Parameter and Bulk Richardson numbers, you've got yourself a good base for determining spinup capabilities.

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02-23-2013, 10:10 AM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KevFist View Post
In another thread, I said I'm break down the products in the Storm Prediction Center's Mesoanalysis section. For those of you interested in Operational Meteorology/Tornadogenesis/Mesoscale development/Storm chasing, these are some very valuable tools for getting a handle on what we call "Nowcasting." These products can change very quickly, so it's imporant to understand how they work....

All of these products are found on the Mesoanalysis page of the Storm Prediction Center's website....
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

I tried to find an equivilant product for Canada, but no luck. If you know where it is, let me know!

They don't exist

Environment Canada sadly doesn't share a lot of information. The radar, satellite and lightning products are sub par when compared to American products.

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06-01-2013, 03:18 PM
  #56
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Atlantic Hurricane Season - June 1st to Nov 30th

So today is the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. While there can be hurricanes outside of this period, they usually happen between June 1st and November 30th as the waters get warmer. September through October are the busiest months of the season. Here is the outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. Apparently the sea surface temperature (SST) is already a few degrees above average at this time of the year. It bodes well for tropical storms since it's one of the main factors that contribute to their formation.

What I'm most interested in this year is to see how the numerical models perform. We all remember Sandy from last year; very early the ECMWF model had shown NJ as a potential area for landfall while the other models got it only 2-3 days before the event. NOAA is getting some upgrades this summer; hopefully it helps.

I also wonder if superstorms like Sandy are going to become a more regular occurrence. Under the right circumstances these tropical storms can hit the American East Coast and then transform into massive extratropical cyclones affecting Eastern Canada, the Maritimes and Newfoundland.

There are also other regions of interest like the New Orleans area. Hopefully this year the tropical storms stay out of the coasts.

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06-01-2013, 08:53 PM
  #57
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http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0524144951.htm

Active to "extremely active" hurricane season predicted.

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06-03-2013, 11:34 AM
  #58
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Below average storms expected in Central & Eastern Pacific

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...alpacific.html

Quote:
NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center today announced that climate conditions point to a below-normal season in the Central Pacific Basin this year.

For 2013, the outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 5 percent chance of an above-normal season. We expect 1 to 3 tropical cyclones to affect the central Pacific this season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...rnpacific.html

Quote:
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced today that a below-normal hurricane season is most likely for the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 55 percent probability of a below-normal season, a 35 percent probability of a near-normal season and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season.

Seasonal hurricane forecasters are calling for a 70 percent chance of 11 to 16 named storms, which includes 5 to 8 hurricanes, of which 1 to 4 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

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06-05-2013, 07:50 PM
  #59
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Here she is, the first tropical storm of the season is Andrea. The Gulf coast of Florida is under a tropical storm warning. Storm surge 2 to 4 ft, rainfall 3 to 6 inches, locally 8 in over FL. The center of the storm is forecast to reach the coast tomorrow afternoon. More details here.

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06-05-2013, 11:02 PM
  #60
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I just really, really hope there isn't a hurricane/tropical storm when I'm in Dominican in July. I definitely don't want to get caught in that.

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06-12-2013, 02:37 PM
  #61
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Something you don't see every day, a high risk for severe weather, mainly for Illinois and Indiana.



Main threat is strong winds and strong tornadoes seem like a possibility over northern IL and eastern IA. Looking at the discussion on the SPC's website, many elements will be reunited for the development of a MCS, possibly a derecho.

SPC issued a Particularly Dangerous Situation tornado watch for eastern IA, northwest IL and southern WI.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0298.html

For the people in these areas, watch out!

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06-12-2013, 03:14 PM
  #62
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They already cancelled the Chicago White Sox game. Been warning folks to arrive early for SCF game 1.

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06-12-2013, 03:26 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LadyStanley View Post
They already cancelled the Chicago White Sox game. Been warning folks to arrive early for SCF game 1.
Hopefully nothing major happens during the game, like losing power and stuff.

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06-12-2013, 03:36 PM
  #64
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Seeing reports of severe storms in/around Edmonton, AB.

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06-12-2013, 03:53 PM
  #65
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Active day in Alberta, Northern Ontario and Quebec.

Storms are developing quickly in the US Midwest. Interesting evening for sure.

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06-12-2013, 04:39 PM
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TWC talking about the possibility of derechoes (think tornado strength wind, but straight line not circulating) east of Chicago (along lower Michigan border).


Last edited by LadyStanley: 06-12-2013 at 07:22 PM. Reason: spelling
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06-12-2013, 04:52 PM
  #67
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Live in edmonton, pretty heavy rain and lightning. There were tornado warnings being issued for parts of the city. Local weather guy was telling people to get to cover.

45mins ago






Last edited by Dave: 06-12-2013 at 04:57 PM.
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06-12-2013, 06:51 PM
  #68
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Dreger reported that there was a tornado near Edmonton.

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06-12-2013, 07:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave View Post
Live in edmonton, pretty heavy rain and lightning. There were tornado warnings being issued for parts of the city. Local weather guy was telling people to get to cover.

45mins ago




Beautiful. Hope there were no damages.


EDIT: Looking through the SPC storm reports, most tornado reports have been from IA so far, now over IL. Mostly hail reports vs wind reports. You can follow the reports here http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html


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06-12-2013, 07:22 PM
  #70
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http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Disco...cho-130612.htm

Article on the potential for derechoes (from Chicago to Washington DC) tonight.

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06-12-2013, 07:25 PM
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I didn't hear of a tornado touching down anywhere near the city. There was a water spout spotted at a lake ~100km away.

No major damages to report of. Any damage would be from downed trees/branches, hail, and flash floods.

edit:

some more pictures







Last edited by Dave: 06-12-2013 at 11:27 PM.
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06-12-2013, 07:34 PM
  #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LadyStanley View Post
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Disco...cho-130612.htm

Article on the potential for derechoes (from Chicago to Washington DC) tonight.
Yep, it may very well last all night. I remember there was a derecho last year. That thing last all of my night shift, it's insane. Lots of wind damage too.

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06-12-2013, 07:47 PM
  #73
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The derecho last year was fueled by unusually warm temperatures, most places were at or over 100 degrees if I remember correctly. The conditions were so perfect for that storm last year.

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06-13-2013, 10:03 AM
  #74
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NOAA 7:58am via TweetDeck Contig. USA cooler, slightly wetter than avg during #spring; Spring temps coolest since 1996, according to .@NOAANCDC 1.usa.gov/11ygFYU


NOAA 7:59am via TweetDeck
Avg May 2013 #temp for contig. USA was 61.0°F, 0.9°F above 20th-century avg, according to .@NOAANCDC 1.usa.gov/11ygFYU #StateOfClimate

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06-13-2013, 11:45 AM
  #75
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PSU Chase 3h
@TWCBreaking Storm over the ridges yesterday evening in Gillete, WY. http://t.co/stSnfo6Q87

Dramatic image

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