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Old
11-11-2012, 05:01 PM
  #26
eyeball11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ForSpareParts View Post


yes yes yes!
Would you say Brian Campbell is better defensively than Duncan Keith?

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Old
11-11-2012, 05:13 PM
  #27
KuleminFan41
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Wasn't Andy Wozniewski the only plus player on the Leafs team a few years ago? Ya +/- is all garbage lol

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11-11-2012, 05:29 PM
  #28
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Wasn't Andy Wozniewski the only plus player on the Leafs team a few years ago? Ya +/- is all garbage lol
He was not a full time player and was spotted in the rotation.

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Old
11-11-2012, 05:31 PM
  #29
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I'm not a fan of plus/minus because what if a player skates onto the ice as his team gets scored on. He will then get a minus when he had nothing to do with the play.

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Old
11-11-2012, 06:03 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by LEAFS FAN 4 EVER View Post
I'm not a fan of plus/minus because what if a player skates onto the ice as his team gets scored on. He will then get a minus when he had nothing to do with the play.
I'm sure that happened all the time with the Leafs.

They had no idea when to change.

Or maybe they did?

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Old
11-11-2012, 06:12 PM
  #31
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http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/recor...s-leaders.html

Interesting list. Kurri in top 30 all time, yet look at his season by season breakdown and he had two -24 seasons in there and 5 seasons in the minus column. Also check out the great one at #4 all time. Maybe there is something to this "team" stat. Seems they were both OK until they ended up in LA.


Last edited by crump: 11-11-2012 at 06:28 PM.
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Old
11-11-2012, 06:23 PM
  #32
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+/- is one of the worst stats out there. sorry.

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Old
11-11-2012, 06:53 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zeke View Post
Zdeno Chara

2000-01 (NYI): -27
2001-02 (OTT): +30

Ottawa 2005-06

Z.Chara: +17
C.Phillips: +19

A.Meszaros: +34
B.Pothier: +29

Plus/Minus is useless when comparing players on different teams, or on the same team.
no. Chara wasn't as dominant back then as he is now. yes Chara was on the upswing in 2005. yes Phillips was a good player then.

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Old
11-11-2012, 07:29 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Volcanologist View Post
+/- is one of the worst stats out there. sorry.
When people like to compare Phil Kessel vs Tyler Seguin because they like to remind Toronto fans about the trade, I have seen this comment. Even though during the 2011-2012 season Kessel had 37 Goals and 45 Assists for 82 points which was 6th in the NHL he was a -10, where as Seguin was a +36. Because of that some think he's the better player and a great example how plus/minus is a horrible stat to keep track of.

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Old
11-11-2012, 07:34 PM
  #35
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+/- is awful unless it's crazy high or crazy low. It can only show you the extremes, and that's not helpful at all.

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Old
11-11-2012, 07:59 PM
  #36
The Mauve Avenger
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+/-?

Hahahahahahaha!

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Old
11-11-2012, 08:01 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LEAFS FAN 4 EVER View Post
When people like to compare Phil Kessel vs Tyler Seguin because they like to remind Toronto fans about the trade, I have seen this comment. Even though during the 2011-2012 season Kessel had 37 Goals and 45 Assists for 82 points which was 6th in the NHL he was a -10, where as Seguin was a +36. Because of that some think he's the better player and a great example how plus/minus is a horrible stat to keep track of.
+/- is essentially the batting average of hockey.

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Old
11-11-2012, 08:24 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by NaiveLeafsFan View Post
Not sure where this idea of plus/minus being bad came from. Oh wait, it's everyone on this forum saying x player is terrible and/or terrible defensively because look at his +/- !!

Maybe if people incorporated Corsi Rel and Qual comp with their arguments along with +/- it would be taken more seriously. In the end I don't really see a point in +/- when looking at individuals so I guess its redundant.
While they're more meaningful than +/-, they're still are very much flawed. The # of shots on net is not proportional to the time spent in defensive/offensive zone, or of puck possession times. Shots on net aren't proportional to scoring chances (or quality scoring chances), either. Just ask Columbus. Heck, quite a few of the goals we surrendered last season couldn't even be counted as scoring chances. WTH is a player supposed to do when a routine shot goes straight through the goalie, or when a goalie is caught fishing out of his net, or when one of his teammates has a brainfart, and coughs up the puck for a breakaway?

I'd much rather stats like:
  • What's the mean/median/total time the line spends in each zone?
  • What % of the time do they have puck possession in each zone?
  • Number of pass attemps vs pass completions. Assists are the best way to "determine" playmaking ability from stats?!?
  • How much time does a player spend in possession of the puck? (would help put the Giveaway stat in context)
  • How many quality chances has the line/player generated / surrendered in 60 mins of ice time?

While the quality of scoring chance can be pretty objective, but it could potentially be "measured" by the amount of effort required by the goalie to make the save. Heck, I'd even take "Grade A" vs "Grade B" scoring chance differentiation compared to having each shot on net be a measure of anything.

Even if we had all these stats, and more, QoC would has to be considered, and that makes things even more messy. Especially when that "quality" is determined by using fudgy "advanced" stats. Then we get stuff like this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cam Charron
They see a lot more time against defencemen who play upwards of 20 minutes, and their relatively weak Rel QoC scores come from the fact that they see a lot of checking lines that traditionally play against a lot of scorers and top offensive players, players who are set up to have weak shot-differential counts for and against when they're on the ice.
Source: Joffrey Lupul sees "too much of Chara for his own good"

Ponder is bang on. NHL doesn't keep nearly enough records to determine a player's defensive ability just by looking at the stats. This includes those so called "advanced" stats, as well. The best way to determine a player's defensive ability is, shockingly, to watch them play.


Last edited by 4evaBlue: 11-11-2012 at 08:34 PM.
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Old
11-11-2012, 10:40 PM
  #39
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+/- basically comes down to two questions.

How good is the other 4 players on the ice playing with player X?
How good are the 5 players playing against player X every shift?


PLayers on deep teams getting sheltered minutes against inferior defensive players are bound to have inflated +/-.

Much like Loaded lines that score well over 100g a season are likewise probably going to have high +/-.

Conversly players on weak teams that get thrown out in a checking role where they are totally outclassed will have bad +/-.

In the end +/- really has no bearing other than a nice fantasy stat.

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Old
11-11-2012, 10:43 PM
  #40
ponder
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Dear +/- fans,
I know my 2 posts on the first page are fairly long, but I'd be curious to know how you feel about the points I made. Basically, how do you account for how massively "flashy" +/- stats are? How can you see it as a good assessment of a player's value/contributions, when it's very common for an individual player to flip from an awesome +/- one year (when playing on a very good team) to a terrible +/- the next year? Do you agree that it is more a team stat than an individual stat, or do you think these fluctuations are mostly explained by a player actually flip flopping between a terrible impact and an amazing impact throughout their career?


Quote:
Originally Posted by ForSpareParts View Post
i know you're going to come at me and say "Dan Hamhuis sucks!" because and his 4 goals and 33 assists sucks. and that his +33 doesn't mean anything. i will say that no. he's not paid to be a sniper like Phil. i will say that his +33 still allows him to earn a salary like 4.5 million per year, and shows how good he can be.
I think pretty much all NHL fans recognize the Hamhuis is a terrific two way dman, excellent defensively, a good puck mover, and more than solid offensively. Most view him as either the best or 2nd best dman on the Canucks. However, I don't think +/- is a reliable way to determine how good he is. Before being traded to the Nucks, he was just +2 for his career, and the 3 seasons before being traded to the Nucks he was always between -4 and +4. Then he gets traded to the Nucks, and puts up a terriffic +29 in each of his two seasons there. He didn't go from a mediocre to a great player all of the sudden, he went from a mediocre to a great TEAM. It's a perfect example of how +/- is much more a team stat than an individual stat.

You also cite Doug Gilmour's +45 season (1988/89) as proof of the stat's relevance. No doubt he was an awesome 2-way player (I love Gilmour, probably my favourite player of all time), but he was also on a terrific Calgary team that year. His Flames finished 1st in the league in the regular season, posted a league best +128 goal differential, and won the cup. They were a great team pre-Gilmour too; that was his first season with the Flames, the year before (without Gilmour) they were still first in the league, and still had a league best +92 goal differential. Gilmour was one of 5 Flames players that year who were +40 or better, and he was actually 2nd on his team in +/- (behind Joe Mullen). But look at Gilmour the season before (1987/88), he was still a great player, but he was on a much more mediocre St. Louis team, that finished the season with a -17 goal differential. Guess what, Gilmour was a pretty poor -13 that year! He also had the 4th worst +/- on his team. In 1 year he goes from -13 to +45, do you really think the difference was Gilmour himself, or Gilmour's team/situation?


Last edited by ponder: 11-11-2012 at 10:57 PM.
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Old
11-11-2012, 10:54 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ponder View Post
Dear +/- fans,
I know my 2 posts on the first page are fairly long, but I'd be curious to know how you feel about the points I made. Basically, how do you account for how massively "flashy" +/- stats are? How can you see it as a good assessment of a player's value/contributions, when it's very common for an individual player to flip from an awesome +/- one year (when playing on a very good team) to a terrible +/- the next year? Do you agree that it is more a team stat than an individual stat, or do you think these fluctuations are mostly explained by a player actually flip flopping between a terrible impact and an amazing impact throughout their career?



I think pretty much all NHL fans recognize the Hamhuis is a terrific two way dman, excellent defensively, a good puck mover, and more than solid offensively. Most view him as either the best or 2nd best dman on the Canucks. However, I don't think +/- is a reliable way to determine how good he is. Before being traded to the Nucks, he was just +2 for his career, and the 3 seasons before being traded to the Nucks he was always between -4 and +4. Then he gets traded to the Nucks, and puts up a terriffic +29 in each of his two seasons there. He didn't go from a mediocre to a great player all of the sudden, he went from a mediocre to a great TEAM. It's a perfect example of how +/- is much more a team stat than an individual stat.
Being on the ice with the Sedin twins is a heck of a lot better for your +/- than being on the ice with the 2nd line in Nashville.

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Old
11-11-2012, 11:14 PM
  #42
ponder
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Being on the ice with the Sedin twins is a heck of a lot better for your +/- than being on the ice with the 2nd line in Nashville.
Agreed.

+/- isn't completely meaningless, but so much context is needed when interpreting the stat that it's more or less useless. I would say the stat is a combination of:

1) The player's combined offensive AND defensive impact
2) The situation the player is used in (tonnes of offensive zone starts, or tonnes of defensive zone starts? Playing lots of minutes, or few minutes? Asked to carry the offence on a weak team? Playing a shutdown role?)
3) The overall strength/dominance of a player's team
4) Variance (bad/good bounces, stepping on right when your team or the other team scores, etc.)

I think +/- represents a bit of "1," a bit of "2," a tiny bit of "4," but mostly it represents "3." Using it as a good indicator of "1" (a player's offensive and defensive impact) is clearly a fairly poor idea, and using it as JUST an indicator of defensive ability is even worse. Great defensive players put up terrible +/- stats all the time, while horrible defensive players put up great +/- stats all the time too.

If a player consistently puts up great +/- stats for his whole career, on good teams and bad teams, I think that means a fair bit (as does consistently poor +/- stats on both good and bad teams), but that's pretty rare. Even great two way players often have numerous years where they put up a poor +/- if they're playing on weak teams.

When a strong defensive player puts up a season with a great +/-, people will say "SEE, the stat works!" But when that same defensive player puts up an awful +/-, the same people are nowhere to be found. The same goes for weak defensive players. The fact is that it's just not a particularly good indication of a player's defensive ability.


Last edited by ponder: 11-11-2012 at 11:29 PM.
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Old
11-12-2012, 12:14 AM
  #43
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Hal Gill:

in the '06-'07 season Hal Gill became a scapegoat for Leaf fans for some reason. why? maybe because he wasn't on the top line teeing off one timers from the point, or maybe he wasn't destroying guys with his size. i think that leaf fans thought he was "big and slow", but i just thought that was really unfair. mostly it's because i always looked at the players +/-. it didn't surprise me at all that he lead all leaf D-men in +/- that year. the rest is history, but i want to remind leaf fans as to how thehockeynews describes him:

http://forecaster.thehockeynews.com/...player.cgi?517


Quote:
ASSETS: Is a great shot-blocker. Has tremendous size and reach. Excels on the penalty kill and in shutdown roles. Can log a lot of minutes and has pretty good hockey sense. Is also a team leader.
CAREER POTENTIAL: Mammoth, savvy veteran shutdown defenseman.

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Old
11-12-2012, 12:27 AM
  #44
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He was not a full time player and was spotted in the rotation.
48 games +5 , enough sample size to be honest

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Old
11-12-2012, 01:42 AM
  #45
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The +/- stat has very little to do with individual players. It is a team stat and can be impacted both positively and negatively as a result of pure luck. For instance a player who steps on the ice for a line change seconds before a goal for or against is positively or negatively rated based on a play that likely had nothing to do with them.

Goaltending plays a huge role as well. A good goaltender can save pucks that would have certainly resulted in goals in most cases and a bad goaltender may not be able to stop a beach ball. It is very common for good defensive players to be on the ice with a piss poor goaltending and thus wind up with a lower plus minus than crappy defensive players who play for teams with excellent goaltending. Ever notice that the best +/- players are generally playing for great teams with very high positive goal differentials? It may be simply goaltending or it may be the team itself that is better not simply the player with the excellent +/- rating.

There are simply too many holes in the stat for it to be a rating for an individual player.

Also if it is supposed to be a stat based on even strength performance how come short handed goals count as a negative? Simply put, +/- is a team stat and a pretty stupid one to boot.
Very good post. Plus, you may be a good + player but playing on a line consistently with poor players who do not play D good enough, or like you said, have a crap goalie in net. The stat does give us a "general" idea though.

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Old
11-12-2012, 02:49 AM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Sam Slick View Post
Very good post. Plus, you may be a good + player but playing on a line consistently with poor players who do not play D good enough, or like you said, have a crap goalie in net. The stat does give us a "general" idea though.
The stat on its own without information on the other variables does not give it any general idea. Without knowing the other variables it's completely utterly useless.

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Old
11-12-2012, 03:09 AM
  #47
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I'm now convinced some people have computers that don't turn on unless they blow a .08.

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Old
11-12-2012, 05:05 PM
  #48
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I have often argued against the use of +/- as a critique of a player's abilities. And I will continue to do so. That is because +/- is largely representative of team play, rather than individual effort.

In much the same way, goalie stats are almost always looked at as GAA rather than S%. The S% is influenced heavily by external factors, such as the quality of the shots and the total number of shots per game. This is not measure in the actual stat itself, and consequently the S% can only be used as a small part of a greater picture.

A great defensive team that gives up tons of perimeter and bad-angle shots, but very few good scoring opportunities (like the Montreal Canadiens did 3 years ago in the playoff run to the Conference Finals) generates a very high S% but may not show anything about the quality of the goaltending.

Conversely, a poor defense that gives up too many strong scoring chances might make a future HOF goaltender's S% look horrible, despite remarkable play by the goaltender.

When it comes to +/-, it does tell a part of the story, but it is a stat that is influenced by multiple external factors, and consequently, when used as a sole indicator of a player's quality of play (even specifically as a measure of their two-way playing strength), well, +/- just isn't a reliable enough stat to make that judgment.

Hockey is a team sport, and +/- is a stat that measures much more accurately the quality of the team than it doesn any individual player on it. Team's that dominate the ice don't do so with a single player. They do so as a well-structured and cohesive unit.

The Leafs are not a good team, and that means that their players have poor defensive stats, regardless of individual play. Yes, maybe it's the sum of all the parts, but you cannot take the sum and average it across all the parts.

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11-12-2012, 05:08 PM
  #49
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My favourite example of how +/- is purely a team stat: Zdeno Chara had the worst =/- in the entire NHL for two straight years at -27 each season. He gets traded contending Ottawa in 2001' and goes on to lead the NHl in +/- with +30

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11-12-2012, 06:08 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LEAFS FAN 4 EVER View Post
I'm not a fan of plus/minus because what if a player skates onto the ice as his team gets scored on. He will then get a minus when he had nothing to do with the play.
What if a player skates on as a goal is being scored..he gets a +1....Its not 100% accurate is it? Aren't ALL stats...team stats too? Does Gretz have a million assists without brilliant snipers playing on his side or blasting shots from the point? Does Brodeur or Roy have multiple Cup rings if they played in front of the Leafs post lockout? I don't think so but certainly +/- is a barometer of how good players play on both sides of the puck. Most guys known for their defensive prowess are career plus players. True?


Last edited by hockeyfanz: 11-12-2012 at 06:17 PM.
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