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The All Purpose Lu Thread (MOD WARNING IN OP)

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Old
11-12-2012, 05:19 PM
  #226
Bleach Clean
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Originally Posted by tempest2i View Post
There's a very good chance that the new CBA will contain a cause that requires the cap hit of guys on one-way contracts, who have been send to the minors, to remain on the teams cap.

Any time you have to consider out clauses for someone's contract, there's a really good chance you're not talking about a good contract.

With that said, fake/legitimate injury and using LTIR will be the way his cap hit gets buried.



LTIR is yet another way around it, true.


I think you bring up a good point about the perception of the contract: You said an out clause is a reason Lu's contract should be viewed as questionable. I think that's facetious. An out clause is insurance - that's it. When you sign a player like this, you are doing so based on his character and longevity. The out clause is a doomsday device that need not ever be used. But it's there only as an added level of protection should it be required.



So really, is anyone thinking about the out clause every year Lu provides starter level goaltending at a 5.3m cap-hit? Nope. They just sit back and enjoy the cap-circumvention.



It is just astounding how his contract continues to be misinterpreted. A team like DET would understand his deal because they are currently benefiting from the structure themselves. The cheat BDCs are excellent and people don't even recognize it.

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11-12-2012, 05:19 PM
  #227
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Originally Posted by MastuhNinks View Post
No offense but I don't see how any rational thinking person can think this is an important factor in this trade. You really think that they care less about getting value in a trade with Florida because Vancouver fans will see less of the Panthers? I don't think so, especially for a team that has one of the biggest and best fanbases in hockey, it's not like the Canucks are going to have problems selling tickets if the Luongo trade isn't a huge success. I don't think that Canucks management is at all concerned with how many people on message boards will be complaining about the trade when they make it (as really, that's all it will effect). I certainly hope they aren't.
Where did I say that?

If we are trading low & getting nothing of value would it be better to trade that player to a market where is seen or where he gets next to no national coverage?

Say we are getting low ball offers from both the Panthers & the Leafs. Obviously we will take the low ball offer from the Panthers as it would be Luongo's choice destination & we wouldn't have to see Luongo all the time.

However if the Panthers have a low ball offer & the Leafs have a MUCH better one then the Leafs would be getting him if Luongo gave the ok.

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11-12-2012, 05:22 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by Imagine17 View Post
Where did I say that?

If we are trading low & getting nothing of value would it be better to trade that player to a market where is seen or where he gets next to no national coverage?

Say we are getting low ball offers from both the Panthers & the Leafs. Obviously we will take the low ball offer from the Panthers as it would be Luongo's choice destination & we wouldn't have to see Luongo all the time.

However if the Panthers have a low ball offer & the Leafs have a MUCH better one then the Leafs would be getting him if Luongo gave the ok.
In a way you sort of implied it:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Imagine17 View Post
I don't think that was his main point though or about the decision to or not to, I think it had to do more with us potentially not getting anything of value for Luongo & then having to see Luongo nearly every Sat would make our fan base angry. In that view getting something of value IS necessary in a trade with Tor. (the implication of course being, that getting value is somehow more necessary if he is shipped to Toronto)
Anyways, Mike Gillis will take whichever deal he likes best. I do not think that the Leafs playing on Hockey Night in Canada will at all be a factor in his decision making.

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Old
11-12-2012, 05:23 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
Its not a bad proposal, for sure progress. This Luongo negotiation is almost like the current CBA talks, except Im not sure who is NHL and NHLPA lol. Anyways Many continue suggesting Kadri, but he does not suit Canucks building pattern. Gillis just got rid of Hodgson who is a similar type of player. I think it is fair to say most Leaf fans prefer Kadri over Colboure, please correct me if I am wrong. Then why not swap Colbourne for Kadri here and upgrade Macarthur to Kulemin with the difference. Gillis is looking to make the team bigger, both Colbourne and Kulemin fit the bill. The 1st is deal closer.

Instead of:

Macarthur, Kadri, 1st

make it

Kulemin, Colbourne, 1st

value about the same?
Actually...the second one is more valuable...but only marginally IMO.

I would actually do either one....now i am going to put my armor on as it's time for Leaf fans to tell me my thinking is the reason the Leafs suck.

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11-12-2012, 05:26 PM
  #230
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
Its not a bad proposal, for sure progress. This Luongo negotiation is almost like the current CBA talks, except Im not sure who is NHL and NHLPA lol. Anyways Many continue suggesting Kadri, but he does not suit Canucks building pattern. Gillis just got rid of Hodgson who is a similar type of player. I think it is fair to say most Leaf fans prefer Kadri over Colboure, please correct me if I am wrong. Then why not swap Colbourne for Kadri here and upgrade Macarthur to Kulemin with the difference. Gillis is looking to make the team bigger, both Colbourne and Kulemin fit the bill. The 1st is deal closer.

Instead of:

Macarthur, Kadri, 1st

make it

Kulemin, Colbourne, 1st

value about the same?
Not sure how anyone in their right mind can fathom how Burke would include a first. He already traded Seguin and Hamilton. Do you think he wants to deal McKinnon, or Jones, or similar? It's never going to happen. Burke isn't going to sign his own death warrant.

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11-12-2012, 05:32 PM
  #231
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Originally Posted by doorman View Post
Like I said I only want him at the right price because of what his actual value in a trade would do to our depth, he isn't the final piece for us. If I was Gillies I wouldn't be looking to do Burke any favours either. And well it is Burkes job to create a false soft market. The truth is that basically Lou is worth more then Leaf fans wanna pay but less the Nucks fans think he should fetch. That is simply because the cap affects deals these days, period, not just this one. Gillies would get more after Xmas or at the deadline if he had say a 10 team list from Lou. But if the number of teams (Fla is basically it right now) doesn't increase i don't think Gillies can get great value, IMO.



FLA isn't the only option, but a great deal depends on them. Gillis will keep trying FLA first. If they say they are out, then the door opens to multiple teams, not just TO. CLB will be brought to the table, as will EDM and any other team that is losing games based on shaky goaltending.



Then it's up to Lu. If he understands FLA is shut down as an option, then he must be open to all other options or this will carry on for a while. So the market is really hinged on FLA first, then all others if/when they are out.



But at that point it won't matter what TO's need is comparative to other teams. If Lu just wants to start anywhere, I can see teams like CLB and even EDM having much better pieces to offer. IMO, the "market" will be set by these teams and not TO.

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11-12-2012, 05:34 PM
  #232
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Originally Posted by MastuhNinks View Post
In a way you sort of implied it:


Anyways, Mike Gillis will take whichever deal he likes best. I do not think that the Leafs playing on Hockey Night in Canada will at all be a factor in his decision making.
How did I imply it? In what way?

I don't think its a HUGE factor but if we get 2 equally as low offers from a big market & a small market I imagine he'd chose the smaller market. To add to that if they are both low ball offers who do you think Gillis will do what is basically a favor for? Burke or Tallon? Going by past relationships i'd imagine it'd be Tallon.


We won't have trouble selling tickets but you know it will be a big issue in Vanocuver. If you don't think Canuck management care about fan reaction then what do you call the aftermath of the Hodgson trade? That looked like Management trying to kill down fan over reactions due to a fan favorite being traded.

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Old
11-12-2012, 05:36 PM
  #233
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Originally Posted by birddog View Post
Not sure how anyone in their right mind can fathom how Burke would include a first. He already traded Seguin and Hamilton. Do you think he wants to deal McKinnon, or Jones, or similar? It's never going to happen. Burke isn't going to sign his own death warrant.
So lets get this straight. Since Burke traded picks..(not Seguin and Hamilton by the way) We have Kessel (PPG) Lupul (PPG) Phaneuf, Gardiner, JVR, McClement a defensive minded coach and IF we added Luongo (a PROVEN starting goalie) you think we finish bottom 2?!?!

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11-12-2012, 05:38 PM
  #234
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Tanking for draft picks seems to be suggested here by some...

So when do you decide to flip the switch and stop being a loser organization? There is always another big dman or forward coming down the pipe.

*** I want to clarify I called no specific team a loser organization. ***

I also want to commend Lifeleafer for his integrity and balanced outlook.

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Old
11-12-2012, 05:41 PM
  #235
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Originally Posted by birddog View Post
Not sure how anyone in their right mind can fathom how Burke would include a first. He already traded Seguin and Hamilton. Do you think he wants to deal McKinnon, or Jones, or similar? It's never going to happen. Burke isn't going to sign his own death warrant.
He won`t include a 1st because he won`t need to, not out of fear.

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Old
11-12-2012, 05:55 PM
  #236
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
So lets get this straight. Since Burke traded picks..(not Seguin and Hamilton by the way) We have Kessel (PPG) Lupul (PPG) Phaneuf, Gardiner, JVR, McClement a defensive minded coach and IF we added Luongo (a PROVEN starting goalie) you think we finish bottom 2?!?!

Luongo will not allow that to happen. Even with a shell of a roster in VAN, during the Nonis era, he carried that team to the playoffs on his back.


Good goaltending will consistently allow TO to garner points along the way. Even in games they should not have. Ask VAN fans, it led to their 2nd PT.

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11-12-2012, 06:16 PM
  #237
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Not speaking to value (i've given up on that), i was just pointing out that most Van fans agreed on Petrovic,Shore and a 1st from FLA....no top 6 guys...no core pieces..yet it seems that the only deal that works from TO had to "help now" with some of OUR core pieces.
Draft picks (particularly 1'sts) and prospects can be used to make other moves for core pieces. So what's the difference between that and the Leaf offers? To me it's simple, I value Petrovic more than any of Leaf prospects (except Rielly), that's unfair probably to some of the good Leaf d prospects but Petrovic played in the whl. I've seen him play many times and I'm sure he's a future top 4, quality NHL d-man. I can't say that about Percy, Finn or Blacker. Mostly becuase of limited viewing but they didn't sell me as sure things when I did see them. I'm just guessing here but probably most of the Van fans who liked that deal did so because of Petrovic.

That, to me, is the problem with trade threads involving many fans of several teams that involve multiple prospects, the value is impossible to establish because everyone can have their own opinion and nobody can be proven wrong when it comes to the value of prospects x,y and z. Might as well just leave them out and use draft picks as a more level understandable value base we can all agree on, after all we can't expect any of the GM's not to have biased 'crystal ball' like opinions about the future of their own prospects. For all we know Matt Finn is untouchable because Burke thinks he's a guaranteed future #1 d-man.

I will predict that any Luongo to the Leafs trade will include some, maybe even many, draft picks going to Vancouver. I base that on the history of both GM's.

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11-12-2012, 06:18 PM
  #238
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Burke has also shown he undervalues goaltending in addition to what you posted about overvaluing his own players. Therefore, it doesn't look like a deal is likely...


I still can't believe Burke refused Kadri + Kulemin for Richards. Just outside the realm of reason there.
Not entirely. Burke is delusional about Kadri, and Kulemin was coming off a 30 goal year making $2.3m.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Saurus View Post
Indeed. As I've been saying all summer until now, a deal between Vancouver and Toronto for Roberto is not going to happen unless Mike Gillis has no other trading options and is willing to take a deal centered around a cap dump like Mike Komisarek or Tim Connolly.
The funny thing is -- neither of those guys are likely to be involved. They're not cap dumps, Toronto needs both for the time being. Tyler Bozak is the #1 centre so you need a guy like Tim Connolly, and the loss of Luke Schenn means an increased role for Mike Komisarek. Guys like MacArthur & Lombardi will be the roster players going because of their lower cap hits, ability to help the canucks, and decreased importance to the Leafs.

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Old
11-12-2012, 06:32 PM
  #239
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Originally Posted by Andy Dufresne View Post
Draft picks (particularly 1'sts) and prospects can be used to make other moves for core pieces. So what's the difference between that and the Leaf offers? To me it's simple, I value Petrovic more than any of Leaf prospects (except Rielly), that's unfair probably to some of the good Leaf d prospects but Petrovic played in the whl. I've seen him play many times and I'm sure he's a future top 4, quality NHL d-man. I can't say that about Percy, Finn or Blacker. Mostly becuase of limited viewing but they didn't sell me as sure things when I did see them. I'm just guessing here but probably most of the Van fans who liked that deal did so because of Petrovic.

That, to me, is the problem with trade threads involving many fans of several teams that involve multiple prospects, the value is impossible to establish because everyone can have their own opinion and nobody can be proven wrong when it comes to the value of prospects x,y and z. Might as well just leave them out and use draft picks as a more level understandable value base we can all agree on, after all we can't expect any of the GM's not to have biased 'crystal ball' like opinions about the future of their own prospects. For all we know Matt Finn is untouchable because Burke thinks he's a guaranteed future #1 d-man.

I will predict that any Luongo to the Leafs trade will include some, maybe even many, draft picks going to Vancouver. I base that on the history of both GM's.
As i said...i wasn't comparing deals value wise. Let me see if i can make it a little more clear. As a Van fab, what is important in a Luongo deal? Prospects and picks or win now roster players. There just seems to be a big diffetence in the expectations from each team.

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11-12-2012, 06:35 PM
  #240
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Not entirely. Burke is delusional about Kadri, and Kulemin was coming off a 30 goal year making $2.3m.



The funny thing is -- neither of those guys are likely to be involved. They're not cap dumps, Toronto needs both for the time being. Tyler Bozak is the #1 centre so you need a guy like Tim Connolly, and the loss of Luke Schenn means an increased role for Mike Komisarek. Guys like MacArthur & Lombardi will be the roster players going because of their lower cap hits, ability to help the canucks, and decreased importance to the Leafs.
With all due respect Sean...Komi or Bozak won't kill the deal (depending what else is involved of course)

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11-12-2012, 06:39 PM
  #241
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
With all due respect Sean...Komi or Bozak won't kill the deal (depending what else is involved of course)
Well, you're half right. From our side, at least.

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11-12-2012, 06:45 PM
  #242
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Not sure how anyone in their right mind can fathom how Burke would include a first. He already traded Seguin and Hamilton. Do you think he wants to deal McKinnon, or Jones, or similar? It's never going to happen. Burke isn't going to sign his own death warrant.
Well missing the playoffs again is signing his own death warrant. If the draft pick is high, Leafs will have missed playoffs and Burke will be fired. If draft pick is low, Leafs make the playoffs and the prospect will be a project which means it will have no impact on Burke signing his next contract with Leafs. Your logic could make sense in a different scenario, but just not this one.


Last edited by Numbers: 11-12-2012 at 06:51 PM.
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11-12-2012, 06:50 PM
  #243
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Actually...the second one is more valuable...but only marginally IMO.

I would actually do either one....now i am going to put my armor on as it's time for Leaf fans to tell me my thinking is the reason the Leafs suck.
Haha Liferleafer you were completely right, the comment after yours explains everything about how most fans on these boards are delusional. Its good to do business with you though

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11-12-2012, 07:00 PM
  #244
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Are Toronto fans still against dealing a first if it's top 10 protected?

the only reason I see why people are unwilling to give the 1st round pick is because of the whole Seguin thing.

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11-12-2012, 07:02 PM
  #245
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
As i said...i wasn't comparing deals value wise. Let me see if i can make it a little more clear. As a Van fab, what is important in a Luongo deal? Prospects and picks or win now roster players. There just seems to be a big diffetence in the expectations from each team.
Right, value is all opinion on forums. I think Gillis will take whatever he thinks the best deal is. Yeah that's obvious statement is obvious, but I think that a deal that includes picks and prospects he likes would take precedent over a deal with roster players he doesn't think are a significant upgrade. Who knows which Leaf players Gillis likes or doesn't? I do know his list would probably look completely different from what posters here think is obvious. Nobody would have thought guys like Higgins and Lapierre would be even significant additions to a contender, and yet they were monumental during the cup run season.

What I'm saying is that Gillis will look to use assets acquired to improve the team in furthur deals if his best deal for Luongo is picks and prospects. You can do a lot as a contender with 2 first rounders and 2 seconds, if that were to be a part of a Luongo deal. I'm also sure that Gillis values late round picks more than Burke, that's why I think Gillis will try to get some in any Leaf/Canuck trade.

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11-12-2012, 07:04 PM
  #246
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Gunnar has a lot more value to the Leafs. On the Canucks he's simply a 3rd pairing dman and for ~15min he doesn't offer anything Ballard doesn't.

I really doubt he's part of any package. Too important to the Leafs, not valuable to the Nucks.
Except Gunnarson only makes (1.35) compared to Ballard at 4.2 this season.

And after this season Gunnarson will probably come in at around 3 million.

For a team that has to give a pay raise to Burrows and hopes to reink Edler saving cap space is very important.

Gunnarson also doesn't publicly fued with the management.

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11-12-2012, 07:10 PM
  #247
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Except Gunnarson only makes (1.35) compared to Ballard at 4.2 this season.

And after this season Gunnarson will probably come in at around 3 million.

For a team that has to give a pay raise to Burrows and hopes to reink Edler saving cap space is very important.

Gunnarson also doesn't publicly fued with the management.
Ballard does?

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11-12-2012, 07:10 PM
  #248
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Haha Liferleafer you were completely right, the comment after yours explains everything about how most fans on these boards are delusional. Its good to do business with you though
It amazes me that even though the fans of the Leafs know very well that this team had 2 massive needs, they think that we can fill one of them for a pack of donuts. I think the last time a starter of Luongo's skill was offered was....well i don't know when. But alas, i'm sure when team tank feels we have sucked long enough that we are finally ready to actually try to win some games, someone will offer up a proven starter again.

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11-12-2012, 07:14 PM
  #249
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Are Toronto fans still against dealing a first if it's top 10 protected?

the only reason I see why people are unwilling to give the 1st round pick is because of the whole Seguin thing.
Once bitten twice shy my friend.

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11-12-2012, 07:27 PM
  #250
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
With all due respect Sean...Komi or Bozak won't kill the deal (depending what else is involved of course)
Komi & Bozak aren't going to kill the deal, they're just not going to be involved because they're worth more to the Leafs than they are the Canucks.

When looking at players who would be likely to go for Luongo, you have to look at guys who the Canucks would place higher value on than the Leafs.

Think a guy like MacArthur who can immediately step onto their 2nd line and give them depth as opposed to a winger crowded in depth in Toronto. Or a depth centre like Lombardi who on a good day is the Leafs 4th best centre, but on that same good day, becomes Vancouver's #3C.

Quote:
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Are Toronto fans still against dealing a first if it's top 10 protected?

the only reason I see why people are unwilling to give the 1st round pick is because of the whole Seguin thing.
If the deal is Lombardi + 1st (top 10 protected) for Luongo... sure. No reason to take the first off the table, the deal as a whole does have to make sense though... and for a team that has a bunch of older prospects and a very young team, a first is likely to be overvalued by the Leafs relative to a prospect who can play right away (and may also need to in order to keep developing).

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