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The Business of Hockey Discuss the financial and business aspects of the NHL. Topics may include the CBA, work stoppages, broadcast contracts, franchise sales, and NHL revenues.

We'll Meet Again, Don't Know Where, Don't Know When (CBA/Lockout) XXVII

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Old
11-14-2012, 10:28 AM
  #726
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikelvl View Post
I'm starting to wonder whether the owners are at the point where forcing Fehr out is more important to them than playing hockey this season.
The easiest way to force Fehr out is to make a deal with him. Fehr's going to retire and hand the reins to his brother once this is over.

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11-14-2012, 10:28 AM
  #727
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Originally Posted by mikelvl View Post
I'm starting to wonder whether the owners are at the point where forcing Fehr out is more important to them than playing hockey this season.
The easiest way to force Fehr out is to sign a CBA. He certainly won't be around for the next one and has already said as much - he's quickly going back to retirement once this mess is solved.

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11-14-2012, 10:28 AM
  #728
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Originally Posted by Crease View Post
Yes. $211M would make the players whole only if revenues grew at a certain rate.

We're at the point where both sides are using that magical 5% growth factor for the sole purpose of convincing the other side that they'll get what they want.
Only to reject it themselves when the other side proposes it. Love it

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Old
11-14-2012, 10:29 AM
  #729
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Originally Posted by Artz19 View Post
No, they aren't that far apart. This assumes 5% growth annually and the PA asking for a 1.75% raise annually.


 YEARHRRNHL OFFER %NHL OFFER $PA OFFER %PA OFFER $DIFF
 2012-13$3,468,684,21150%$1,734,342,10555%$1,915,952,500$181,610,395
 2013-14$3,642,118,42150%$1,821,059,21154%$1,949,481,669$128,422,458
 2014-15$3,824,224,34250%$1,912,112,17152%$1,983,597,598$71,485,427
 2015-16$4,015,435,55950%$2,007,717,78050%$2,018,310,556$10,592,776
TOTAL$14,950,462,53350%$7,475,231,26653%$7,867,342,323$392,111,056

From that point on they would be equal. The NHL has offered an additional $211M to bridge the gap. So the gap sits at $181M over 4 years.

However, now that year 1 HRR is considerably less, that opens a can of worms.
They aren't far apart of revenue grow 5% a year. They are far apart if revenues remain flat or decrease in a year or two (which wouldn't be a huge surprise given fan outrage at the lockout). Maybe if hte PA offered genuine linkage at 55, 54, 52, 50 there might be somewhere to work to. Currently the two sides are still speaking in different terms.

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11-14-2012, 10:29 AM
  #730
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I guarantee you that hockey revenues for the next couple of seasons will be hurt by this lockout. Maybe not so much in Canada, but I think in some American markets the league will take a noticeable hit. This will not be the economic engine it was before the lockout. It may eventually get there again, but this will set it back.

The longer this goes, the less both sides get. Thing is, I don't think the players quite understand this concept.

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11-14-2012, 10:30 AM
  #731
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Why the players shouldn't just be satisfied with whatever they get...

An interesting article here. Why the NHL isn't like an ordinary business and why the players shouldn't just be satisfied with what they get:

Quote:
The primary issue saying something like ‘the players are employees and have no right to bargain for a percentage of revenue’ is this: the NHL is not a regular workplace. There’s an artificial structure in place – a structure that includes not just the salary cap but also things like the entry draft and free agency. It’s a structure that in most businesses would be illegal.
Quote:
NHL teams have rights that other companies don’t get, and they only have them because of the existence of the NHLPA and collective bargaining.

If the NHLPA ceased to exist, owners would get some things that they would like. Guaranteed contracts would come to an end, for example. But they would also lose their ability to dictate the course of an NHL player’s career – and as a group, there would be no way to artificially cap salaries at a certain percentage of revenue.

That would mean a return to the old days – where any billionaire who wanted a Stanley Cup ring could spend as much money as he liked in his efforts to get one. That would lead to all sorts of problems – in the current climate, it would kill teams like Florida; in the climate of a decade ago it would re-kill Winnipeg.
http://oilersnation.com/2012/11/14/employees

It's an important point. As a regular employee, an NHL player would be able to give their two weeks notice and move onto another team. Players can't willfully opt out of their contracts and so they shouldn't be expected to just take whatever the owners are offering. They're stuck in those deals, some of them for 10+ years.


Last edited by Ginu: 11-14-2012 at 10:40 AM.
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11-14-2012, 10:31 AM
  #732
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Originally Posted by Crease View Post
Yes. $211M would make the players whole only if revenues grew at a certain rate.

We're at the point where both sides are using that magical 5% growth factor for the sole purpose of convincing the other side that they'll get what they want.
The $211M also uses $1.883B players' share, not the 1.75% increase the PA is proposing.


Also, if there happened to be 7% growth over the length of the deal, the NHL and the PA offers are basically equal over 4 years.

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11-14-2012, 10:36 AM
  #733
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Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger
From sickbay...players keep telling me they're optimistic a deal will get done, while owners tell me they have no confidence in that.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite
6m Gord Miller ‏@GMillerTSN

@DarrenDreger I spoke with an NHL exec who thinks that this dispute will wipe out this season, and continue into the start of next season.
Expand
1m Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger

@GMillerTSN. Yes. I've been told the same. However, players don't buy it.



lolol players will get a dose of reality soon.

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11-14-2012, 10:40 AM
  #734
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ginu View Post
An interesting article here. Why the NHL isn't like an ordinary business and why the players shouldn't just be satisfied with what they get:





http://oilersnation.com/2012/11/14/employees
also if there was no nhlpa the owners under strict enforcement of bettman/commish could tell every owner that they cannot spend more then 10 million on the entire team.

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Old
11-14-2012, 10:40 AM
  #735
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Originally Posted by cheswick View Post
They aren't far apart of revenue grow 5% a year. They are far apart if revenues remain flat or decrease in a year or two (which wouldn't be a huge surprise given fan outrage at the lockout). Maybe if hte PA offered genuine linkage at 55, 54, 52, 50 there might be somewhere to work to. Currently the two sides are still speaking in different terms.
Does the 1.75% raise annually continue for the entire length of the CBA? Because then the difference wouldn't be so much when you factor in the last couple of years.

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11-14-2012, 10:43 AM
  #736
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Originally Posted by HarryHabs View Post
Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger
From sickbay...players keep telling me they're optimistic a deal will get done, while owners tell me they have no confidence in that.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite
6m Gord Miller ‏@GMillerTSN

@DarrenDreger I spoke with an NHL exec who thinks that this dispute will wipe out this season, and continue into the start of next season.
Expand
1m Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger

@GMillerTSN. Yes. I've been told the same. However, players don't buy it.



lolol players will get a dose of reality soon.
I really hope this spills into next "season".

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Old
11-14-2012, 10:43 AM
  #737
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryHabs View Post
Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger
From sickbay...players keep telling me they're optimistic a deal will get done, while owners tell me they have no confidence in that.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite
6m Gord Miller ‏@GMillerTSN

@DarrenDreger I spoke with an NHL exec who thinks that this dispute will wipe out this season, and continue into the start of next season.
Expand
1m Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger

@GMillerTSN. Yes. I've been told the same. However, players don't buy it.



lolol players will get a dose of reality soon.
Meh.

What else would the owners say? Obviously their leverage here is to kill the season entirely, so of course they're going to threaten that the more time goes by. Only if you were inclined to side with the owners regardless would you put a value higher than worthless on such comments.

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11-14-2012, 10:43 AM
  #738
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Originally Posted by cheswick View Post
They aren't far apart of revenue grow 5% a year. They are far apart if revenues remain flat or decrease in a year or two (which wouldn't be a huge surprise given fan outrage at the lockout). Maybe if hte PA offered genuine linkage at 55, 54, 52, 50 there might be somewhere to work to. Currently the two sides are still speaking in different terms.
Any losses as a result of the lockout are all on the owners. If slower growth causes them to miss their 50/50 rev split goal by a couple more years, screw 'em. Why should the PA be expected to make good on the League's poor management?

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11-14-2012, 10:44 AM
  #739
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryHabs View Post
Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger
From sickbay...players keep telling me they're optimistic a deal will get done, while owners tell me they have no confidence in that.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite
6m Gord Miller ‏@GMillerTSN

@DarrenDreger I spoke with an NHL exec who thinks that this dispute will wipe out this season, and continue into the start of next season.
Expand
1m Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger

@GMillerTSN. Yes. I've been told the same. However, players don't buy it.



lolol players will get a dose of reality soon.
Hopefully it doesn't come to that. I dunno if this league can handle 2 wiped years in such a short period of time over splitting their millions of dollars.

The shock and outrage from the players will be interesting though.

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Old
11-14-2012, 10:45 AM
  #740
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artz19 View Post
No, they aren't that far apart. This assumes 5% growth annually and the PA asking for a 1.75% raise annually.


 YEARHRRNHL OFFER %NHL OFFER $PA OFFER %PA OFFER $DIFF
 2012-13$3,468,684,21150%$1,734,342,10555%$1,915,952,500$181,610,395
 2013-14$3,642,118,42150%$1,821,059,21154%$1,949,481,669$128,422,458
 2014-15$3,824,224,34250%$1,912,112,17152%$1,983,597,598$71,485,427
 2015-16$4,015,435,55950%$2,007,717,78050%$2,018,310,556$10,592,776
TOTAL$14,950,462,53350%$7,475,231,26653%$7,867,342,323$392,111,056

From that point on they would be equal. The NHL has offered an additional $211M to bridge the gap. So the gap sits at $181M over 4 years.

However, now that year 1 HRR is considerably less, that opens a can of worms.
$181 million/4 years = 45.25 million per year

$45.25 million/700 players = $64,642/per player per year

literally the 64 thousand dollar question.

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Old
11-14-2012, 10:45 AM
  #741
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Model62 View Post
Any losses as a result of the lockout are all on the owners. If slower growth causes them to miss their 50/50 rev split goal by a couple more years, screw 'em. Why should the PA be expected to make good on the League's poor management?
Because the PA is just as much to blame for this lockout and the cause of the the slow/no growth?

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Old
11-14-2012, 10:45 AM
  #742
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the amount of anger i have in me daily because of this is not healthy

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11-14-2012, 10:46 AM
  #743
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryHabs View Post
Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger
From sickbay...players keep telling me they're optimistic a deal will get done, while owners tell me they have no confidence in that.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite
6m Gord Miller ‏@GMillerTSN

@DarrenDreger I spoke with an NHL exec who thinks that this dispute will wipe out this season, and continue into the start of next season.
Expand
1m Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger

@GMillerTSN. Yes. I've been told the same. However, players don't buy it.



lolol players will get a dose of reality soon.
Well, every work stoppage in the NHL has gone on longer than the one before it. A short strike, a half season, a full season.

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Old
11-14-2012, 10:46 AM
  #744
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I really hope this spills into next "season".
Me too, it will be funny when the players fold and cry.

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11-14-2012, 10:46 AM
  #745
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Its amazing how pro-NHL owner this board is. Sad. Very sad.

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Old
11-14-2012, 10:47 AM
  #746
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Originally Posted by CerebralGenesis View Post
Because the PA is just as much to blame for this lockout and the cause of the the slow/no growth?
Not quite. It's a lockout.

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11-14-2012, 10:48 AM
  #747
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Isn't make whole based on the same 5% growth assumption?

Edit: They said that make whole payments won't be needed in year 3 because revenue growth will be enough to "honour" the contracts.
Correct, which is somewhat hypocritical I agree, but all in all its a much smaller part of the pie than the overall revenue number.

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11-14-2012, 10:50 AM
  #748
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Its amazing how pro-NHL owner this board is. Sad. Very sad.
Why?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Model62 View Post
Not quite. It's a lockout.
So?

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Old
11-14-2012, 10:50 AM
  #749
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryHabs View Post
Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger
From sickbay...players keep telling me they're optimistic a deal will get done, while owners tell me they have no confidence in that.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite
6m Gord Miller ‏@GMillerTSN

@DarrenDreger I spoke with an NHL exec who thinks that this dispute will wipe out this season, and continue into the start of next season.
Expand
1m Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger

@GMillerTSN. Yes. I've been told the same. However, players don't buy it.


Hmmm. I agree that the season is lost (And for no real reason) but this still comes across as propaganda and posturin.

Each side is still speaking from their scripts and that doesn't seem like a good sign.

My only hope is that somewhere 2 people are hunkered down somewhere talking and trying to sort things out.

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11-14-2012, 10:50 AM
  #750
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Its amazing how pro-NHL owner this board is. Sad. Very sad.
Go to ******. They'll love you there.

I'm not pro-owner so much as I am anti-Fehr. The NHL would be in a dangerous place if Fehr got his way. The thing is, the players will get paid at the end of the day. They always have a positive cash flow. It may be short term pain, but they'll get long term gain over the length of a CBA. Just like last time.

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