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Off-season Madness the 3rd: Jeffrey Loria taketh and Jeffrey Loria giveth away

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Old
11-14-2012, 02:32 AM
  #351
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Over Jason Bay? He's shot. Couldnt hit water if he fell out of the boat and also a liability defensively. You are better off with Sierra and then at some point Gose.
Jason Bay has been so awful the Mets paid him $20 million he's owed to walk. That's how atrocious he's been. A .536 OPS last season. 536. And a negative 1.3 WAR last year. I really, really don't understand the fascination with Canadian players. A negative WAR says that literally, just about any player could have done more than Bay. The Mets could have walked out on the street and got a hot dog vendor who probably would have put up similar numbers.

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11-14-2012, 02:34 AM
  #352
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I may have missed it, but has Villanueva come out and said he 100% isn't coming back? Probably because he wants to start... Or has AA stated he doesn't want to retain his services?
With the trade today it's pretty safe to assume that CV is gone. He wants too much money and now we have enough depth in the rotation. He just hasn't proven enough.

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11-14-2012, 02:34 AM
  #353
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Over Jason Bay? He's shot. Couldnt hit water if he fell out of the boat and also a liability defensively. You are better off with Sierra and then at some point Gose.
You do realize Bay was only bad on the Mets.

Back in 09 on the Red Sox, THREE short years ago he put up monster numbers of 36 HR, 119 RBI. Than he hit 26 HR in 3 seasons with the Mets.

There is no way that all of his talent and ability is gone. He was just in a crappy situation in NY and needs the fresh start.

I really feel that a healthy, rejuvenated and focused Bay would still be good for a .270 BA, 15-18 HR and 75 RBI. Decent stats and better than what Sierra or Gose would put up.

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11-14-2012, 02:35 AM
  #354
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Why can't CV start and be the #5 guy? He was pretty good as a starter last year and he's still young.

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11-14-2012, 02:43 AM
  #355
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You do realize Bay was only bad on the Mets.

Back in 09 on the Red Sox, THREE short years ago he put up monster numbers of 36 HR, 119 RBI. Than he hit 26 HR in 3 seasons with the Mets.

There is no way that all of his talent and ability is gone. He was just in a crappy situation in NY and needs the fresh start.

I really feel that a healthy, rejuvenated and focused Bay would still be good for a .270 BA, 15-18 HR and 75 RBI. Decent stats and better than what Sierra or Gose would put up.
I'm sorry but this is living in la-la land. Look at the numbers, put the bias aside. Home runs aren't the most relevant stat and RBI's are a completely useless stat. In fact, RBI's are the second most useless stat in baseball next to a pitchers wins/loss record. Since 2010, his OPS went from .749 to .703 to .536. Those are atrocious numbers for a corner outfielder. He's 34 and declining hard, I'd be shocked if anyone signs him. He'll get a spring training invite and that's about it. The WAR has been declining too over that span. Every.Single.Year. The guys 34, he hit his prime, cashed in big time with the Mets and now he's awful. I'll gladly explain why RBI's are irrelevant too if you'd like.

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11-14-2012, 02:48 AM
  #356
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Why can't CV start and be the #5 guy? He was pretty good as a starter last year and he's still young.
But CV wasn't that good last season, in fact, he was pretty average. Just looking at the basic numbers, the league average ERA was 4.01, CV put up a 4.16. The average WHIP was 1.31, CV had a 1.27. He posted a 1.2 WAR which is average. In fact, he's actually a better reliever than he is a starter and the numbers show this.

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11-14-2012, 02:51 AM
  #357
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Originally Posted by Spezza19 View Post
People want a LF? How about Jason Bay for cheap. That would be awesome. Or Marcum as a #5 pitcher?

Scary to think AA could have more coming!
Johnson
Morrow
Buehrle
Romero
Marcum



That would be ridiculous. Although, I think the Jays would be better served by investing in a top tier reliever or 2 good ones. There are enough guys in the system who can fight for the #5 starting job.

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11-14-2012, 02:56 AM
  #358
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Originally Posted by Spezza19 View Post
You do realize Bay was only bad on the Mets.

Back in 09 on the Red Sox, THREE short years ago he put up monster numbers of 36 HR, 119 RBI. Than he hit 26 HR in 3 seasons with the Mets.

There is no way that all of his talent and ability is gone. He was just in a crappy situation in NY and needs the fresh start.

I really feel that a healthy, rejuvenated and focused Bay would still be good for a .270 BA, 15-18 HR and 75 RBI. Decent stats and better than what Sierra or Gose would put up.
Jason Bay is 34, and a lot of his problems with the Mets were also due to injuries. Yes, the spacious Citi Field didn't help matters, but there's far more in play here than "he just had it bad with the Mets"

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Why can't CV start and be the #5 guy? He was pretty good as a starter last year and he's still young.
He was good as a starter until he fell apart toward the end of the season. After not having had anywhere close to a full-time starter's workload to that point in the year. And having had the exact same thing happen to him in the previous year too. Therein lies the problem with Villanueva: Can you justify paying starter money and promising a starter's job to a guy that's had 2 cracks to prove that he can such an assignment and couldn't even break 130 innings before starting to fall apart, let alone getting to 180+ that you'd have to realistically expect out of even a back-end starter?

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11-14-2012, 02:56 AM
  #359
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People are under rating Bonifacio. This guy is the BEST base stealer in the game. He is also the most versatile player in the game. He is not the equivalent of Tom Wandell. Are you kidding? Normally he would be an ideal lead off hitter. But with Reyes that may be an "issue". Anyway, Bonifacio will not be an alternate on this team, if he is healthy he will be in the lineup, and he will be effective.

I'd go with Trout. Fast and smart on basepaths.

Bonifacio is very good though.

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11-14-2012, 03:00 AM
  #360
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He was good as a starter until he fell apart toward the end of the season. After not having had anywhere close to a full-time starter's workload to that point in the year. And having had the exact same thing happen to him in the previous year too. Therein lies the problem with Villanueva: Can you justify paying starter money and promising a starter's job to a guy that's had 2 cracks to prove that he can such an assignment and couldn't even break 130 innings before starting to fall apart, let alone getting to 180+ that you'd have to realistically expect out of even a back-end starter?
Why pay a guy when you have a cost controlled guy like Happ around? Happ had a great k rate when he came over, over 10 per 9 innings which points to a guy who can more than start if need be. He's also shown he can pitch 140+ innings a year which is really all you ask from a number 5.

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11-14-2012, 03:00 AM
  #361
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Originally Posted by Spezza19 View Post
You do realize Bay was only bad on the Mets.

Back in 09 on the Red Sox, THREE short years ago he put up monster numbers of 36 HR, 119 RBI. Than he hit 26 HR in 3 seasons with the Mets.

There is no way that all of his talent and ability is gone. He was just in a crappy situation in NY and needs the fresh start.

I really feel that a healthy, rejuvenated and focused Bay would still be good for a .270 BA, 15-18 HR and 75 RBI. Decent stats and better than what Sierra or Gose would put up.

That's also the same guy that OPS'd .536 in almost 200 at bats last season. He looked shot.

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11-14-2012, 03:17 AM
  #362
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Originally Posted by Edonator View Post
Johnson
Morrow
Buehrle
Romero
Marcum



That would be ridiculous. Although, I think the Jays would be better served by investing in a top tier reliever or 2 good ones. There are enough guys in the system who can fight for the #5 starting job.
the bullpen is the last thing the team needs to address through free agency for two reasons:

1) The bullpen we've got assembled already should be very good, with or without Darren Oliver.

and 2) spending in FA on "top tier" (read: big name) relievers is generally a dangerous game. Bullpens are volatile things that may perform dramatically differently from year to year, so tying up money in a guy who could fall of a cliff at a moment's notice when it's just as likley you could get solid output out of some random no-name guy in your minor league system is not the best use of assets. Take Darren Oliver, who was a fairly unheralded signing (IIRC) late in the free agency period and went on to be one of the most dominant relievers in baseball last year. Meanwhile teams shelled out big bucks for Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon and hte like, and got performances that ranged from "ok, but not worth the money" to "he's downright atrocious, get him off the team now."

There are more important, more impactful, and more cost-effective places to spend money on than in the bullpen.

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11-14-2012, 03:24 AM
  #363
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Originally Posted by Man Bear Pig View Post
Why pay a guy when you have a cost controlled guy like Happ around? Happ had a great k rate when he came over, over 10 per 9 innings which points to a guy who can more than start if need be. He's also shown he can pitch 140+ innings a year which is really all you ask from a number 5.
This too. Happ has full-season starter experience, looked good in the role at season's end(although, in fairness so did Villanueva during the middle of the season), and he's on a reasonable contract for a guy fighting for the #5 job, whereas Villanueva will probably want guaranteed starter's money rather than "it's your job to win" money.

Plus if Happ falters, Chad Jenkins had moments of looking like he had solid back-end potential during the late run last season. Toss in a few ST invite veterans or other prospects at the AAA level and there's more than enough competition for a #5 starter to not have to spend money on taking a chance on a guy like Charlie V being able to do it for a full season for once.

Or hey, maybe they go out and find a guy like, say, Scott Feldman, who's looking for a shot at redemption and would be willing to play that #5/swingman role on the cheap for a year to prove he can be a full time MLB starter. Seems like a better use of resources too.

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11-14-2012, 03:31 AM
  #364
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This too. Happ has full-season starter experience, looked good in the role at season's end(although, in fairness so did Villanueva during the middle of the season), and he's on a reasonable contract for a guy fighting for the #5 job, whereas Villanueva will probably want guaranteed starter's money rather than "it's your job to win" money.

Plus if Happ falters, Chad Jenkins had moments of looking like he had solid back-end potential during the late run last season. Toss in a few ST invite veterans or other prospects at the AAA level and there's more than enough competition for a #5 starter to not have to spend money on taking a chance on a guy like Charlie V being able to do it for a full season for once.

Or hey, maybe they go out and find a guy like, say, Scott Feldman, who's looking for a shot at redemption and would be willing to play that #5/swingman role on the cheap for a year to prove he can be a full time MLB starter. Seems like a better use of resources too.
Agreed, if you're going to pay $10 million or so a season so a guy like CV, may as well go after Marcum, a much more proven starter who's actually much better than CV and has shown he can pitch those innings. On top of this, he's expressed interest in coming back. He will require a little more money than CV but lets not kid ourselves, anyone who takes CV over Marcum is out to lunch. There's also the trade route, going after a guy like Dickey is an interesting idea and could be possible as the Mets likely trade a knuckleballer who's pushing 40 coming off a career year. He's a strange situation and he'd certainly come cheaper than the prototypical ace on the trade market given his age.

Dickey
Johnson
Romero
Morrow
Buehrle


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11-14-2012, 03:49 AM
  #365
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we need another bat (1b or lf) and/or need another starting pitcher to be a legit contender.

hopefully we can ditch lind and his salary and get a FA to fill that spot.

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11-14-2012, 04:20 AM
  #366
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Also consider this: If we get into the playoffs and can go with a 3-man rotation, we can ride Johnson-Morrow-Buehrle.

awesome.
As bad as Romero's collapse was last year, I think it's worth keeping in mind we're still only roughly 6 months removed from when Romero was unquestionably a #2 starter.

Johnson
Morrow
Buehrle
Romero
Happ/Scraps

It'd certainly be welcome to tack on someone like Marcum at the end there, but I think we would just be greedy at that point haha. The bullpen is generally set too. You have to keep in mind that bullpens are probably the most volatile part of baseball and throwing money at relievers can look plain foolish in retrospect. Also, although a question mark, Santos return should not be discounted.

I think AA will just focus on deciding whether we need to shore up 1B/DH, 2B, and LF now.

Encarnacion can certainly fulfills one of 1B/DH. Hit roughly equally (.966/.923 OPS) in each position last year and his defence at 1B was below-average, but not necessarily atrocious (-1 DRS, -14.1 UZR/150)

Lind's got better defensive numbers at 1B, but you'd ideally want a bigger bat in one of those spots. .304/.343/.441 post-All Star break was respectable, but not up to AL East 1B/DH standards.

Right now I think we're looking at a Bonifacio/Izturis platoon at 2B and a Bonifacio/Gose platoon in LF. Neither is ideal, but I think Gose showed enough promise at the end of the year to get a true shot in LF.

Izturis has roughly equal splits against lefties and righties (90/96 wRC+) over his career, while Bonifacio is slightly better against lefties (92/79), so there's potential for a decent enough platoon there. Despite his speed, Bonifacio's defensive numbers in the IF are pretty poor and 2011 may be an outlier for him, so I would only set him as the 2B in pencil...

Anyway, exciting times regardless. Somewhat disappointed I'll be studying overseas until July this year haha

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11-14-2012, 05:46 AM
  #367
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As far as Jason Bay is concerned, the most I'd be willing to give him would be a minor league deal with a spring invite. That's it. If he earns a spot, great. If he doesn't, no harm.

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11-14-2012, 05:53 AM
  #368
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So now that Toronto has become an attractive landmark, does that mean more free agents want to come here?
#5 Starter- Dan Haren or Edwin Jackson?
OF- Upton, Napoli, Laroche, Melky, (Hamilton)

#1 SP- Josh Johnson
#2 SP- Mark Buehrle
#3 SP- Brandon Morrow
#4 SP- Ricky Romero
#5 SP- Dan Haren OR Edwin Jackson*
Extras: JA Happ, Brandon Lincoln

Bullpen:
- Carlos Villanueva
- Brandon Lyon
- Darren Oliver
- Steve Delabar
- Luis Perez
- Sergio Santos
- Casey Janssen

1B- Edwin Encarnacion
2B- Maicer Izturis
SS- Jose Reyes
3B- Brett Lawrie
C- John Buck
LF- Rajai Davis
CF- Colby Rasmus
RF- Jose Bautista
Extras: Anthony Gose, Moises Sierra, J.P. Arencibia

Line-up:
1. Jose Reyes
2. Brett Lawrie
3. Jose Bautista
4. Edwin Encarnacion
5. John Buck
6. Colby Rasmus
7. Travis D’Arnaud
8. Rajai Davis
9. Maicer Izturis

*Free Agents

Feel as if the #5 role as a DH or 1B needs to be filled.

Can we afford it? If we move JPA + Lind perhaps?
So many holes in your post.

Happ is out of options, he'll be starting. Cecil is out of options, he'll be in the pen. So too will Rogers or Jeffress as he's out of options. AA won't throw assets away.

We're not spending on Lyon or CVill when there are guys we already have.

JPA won't be on the bench for Buck, he'll be dealt most likely.

Gose won't be up here to be on the bench. MAYBE Sierra, but they both need regular ABs in the minors. You don't have a backup MI.

We just traded for Boni, where is he?

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11-14-2012, 05:57 AM
  #369
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What an insane trade. So pumped. Glad AA pulled off something major to quiet all his doubters.

What does JJ throw? Buehrle? I've watched them pitch before but never really paid attention to the details.

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11-14-2012, 05:59 AM
  #370
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Originally Posted by HawkeyeCB View Post
Okay after thinking here's what I actually came up;

LINEUP
SS Jose Reyes
CF Colby Rasmus
RF Jose Bautista
DH/1B Edwin Encarnacion
1B/DH Adam Lind
3B Brett Lawrie
2B Emilio Bonifacio
C J.P. Arencibia
LF Rajai Davis

BENCH
OF Mosies Sierra
IF Maicer Izturis
1B David Cooper
C John Buck

STARTERS
SP Josh Johnson
SP Brandon Morrow
SP Mark Buerhle
SP Ricky Romero
SP J.A. Happ

BULLPEN
RP Esmil Rogers
RP Aaron Loup
RP Steve Delabar
RP Luis Perez
RP Sergio Santos
SU Darren Oliver
CP Casey Janssen

I'd like to add a starting LF (use Rajai off the bench) and bring back Brandon Lyon.

If we don't acquire a LF or 2B, I'd let Bonofacio swap between LF and 2B until one of Izturis or Davis takes the ball and forces Boni to play the other position full-time.
Where would Lyon fit though?

And I think Cecil is in the pen too. Due to Loup's delivery I've heard you don't want him as the only lefty in the pen.

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11-14-2012, 06:30 AM
  #371
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So many holes in your post.

Happ is out of options, he'll be starting. Cecil is out of options, he'll be in the pen. So too will Rogers or Jeffress as he's out of options. AA won't throw assets away.

We're not spending on Lyon or CVill when there are guys we already have.

JPA won't be on the bench for Buck, he'll be dealt most likely.

Gose won't be up here to be on the bench. MAYBE Sierra, but they both need regular ABs in the minors. You don't have a backup MI.

We just traded for Boni, where is he?
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Where would Lyon fit though?

And I think Cecil is in the pen too. Due to Loup's delivery I've heard you don't want him as the only lefty in the pen.
Since when it Cecil an "asset". He's been horrendous and it easily replaceable from within. You dump him or release him. He is that bad. And there's still no word from Oliver, who's option was picked up but he hasnt decided on retirement yet. Cecil shouldn't even get a sniff with this team, good riddance.

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11-14-2012, 06:31 AM
  #372
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11-14-2012, 06:48 AM
  #373
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You know what's funny is that this WAS a good baseball deal. Miami got excellent return for guys with salaries this large. Everyone acknowledges this fact but its still doom and gloom. MLB better not screw this up in some misguided notion that they can fix it by not approving the trade. I could see it happening. Little gnome hates Canada

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11-14-2012, 06:49 AM
  #374
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Or Marcum as a #5 pitcher?

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11-14-2012, 06:58 AM
  #375
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Originally Posted by Spezza19 View Post
You do realize Bay was only bad on the Mets.

Back in 09 on the Red Sox, THREE short years ago he put up monster numbers of 36 HR, 119 RBI. Than he hit 26 HR in 3 seasons with the Mets.

There is no way that all of his talent and ability is gone. He was just in a crappy situation in NY and needs the fresh start.

I really feel that a healthy, rejuvenated and focused Bay would still be good for a .270 BA, 15-18 HR and 75 RBI. Decent stats and better than what Sierra or Gose would put up.
2009 was light years ago. See exhibit A; Lind, Adam.

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