If as rumoured the Leafs do land Luongo they should at least finish ahead of the Canadiens ( ) and Edmonton. I keep hoping for Edmonton to become a crazy powerhouse but they look like they need serious work in the crease and on "D" for that to happen.
I voted for Toronto. Not because I'm a Maple Leafs fan, it's because I honestly think they are better then their record showed in 2011-2012. Among their players not returning only Luke Schenn could make a difference, however I don't see Colby Armstrong getting better in Montreal or Jonas Gustavsson making a difference in Detroit. So I say they are better of with James van Riemsdyk and Jay McClement should help them on the penalty kill. Plus hopefully their prospects like Nazem Kadri can make the team full time. Finally if they do trade for Lungo everyone has said chances are he gets them into the Playoffs and they haven't had a stable #1 Goalie since Ed Belfour.
But MTL I think will bounce back. They have an elite goalie and some solid players.
Edmonton is a wild card because of youth and injury problems. Because the big 4 seem to be progressing good they may improve. They also added Schultz and Yakupov. Both will not make huge impacts but add some scoring
TML havent added any significant peices to show they will progress. They were doing good last year till their epic collapse. But the same thing can be said about the Oil who were top 9-10 in western conference until late december and then fell apart
Exactly. If the Lou trade only involves prospects, draft picks and minor players then Toronto has a good chance at making the playoffs.
But that's all hypothetical, right now I'd say it's:
I don't know if it's a "good" chance.. Each goalie has a career average even strength save percentage, but that doesn't mean each year they match it. There's natural variance of about 0.011, ie Luongo's has been between 0.925 and 0.936 his entire career.
I took the number of even strength shots Toronto goalies faced last season and calculated what their goal differential would be had they had a goalie for 64 games who stopped pucks at the same rate as Luongo's career best, worst, and average and they finished anywhere from 7th to 10th.
That was in a year where the Leafs got pretty 'lucky' offensively, with key players (Kessel, Lupul, among others) having very good years in on-ice shooting percentages.
TLDR; Luongo makes the Leafs a lot better but even with a perennial all-star in net, that team is in tough to make the dance.