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Blue Jays sign Melky Cabrera (2 years, 16 million)

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11-20-2012, 09:49 PM
  #176
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that post took me almost 45 minutes of constant deleting insults and snideness. i like daaaaaaaaaaab's just fine and i didnt want to come off as a dick or anything.

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11-20-2012, 09:55 PM
  #177
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It does get a little irritating having to repeat yourself on the issue of steroids over and over again while people ignore the site with all of it's links to independent research. Then, they ask "if it doesn't work, why do people use them"? Like I said before, why do people drive with their windows down trying to save gas when it has been proven that that doesn't save gas?

People believe in myths.

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11-20-2012, 11:15 PM
  #178
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Originally Posted by robert terwilliger View Post
my issue is two-fold:

1- if steroids work as you and others seem to think; that merely ingesting these drugs makes you stronger and thus a better baseball player, how does one explain the list of bad baseball players who have admitted to being on the gas? at the end of the day, talent is what matters. most professional athletes take supplements, anything to allow them to jump higher, run faster, etc. if they believe that steroids work as they think they do...they're going to do them.

http://steroids-and-baseball.com/actual-effects.shtml

i've linked to this website before, as have others, and it goes widely ignored. i just have a hard time believing that a player takes a drug and is magically transformed into an outstanding player. look at the names on the mitchell report, if you want to waste some time someday, or even look at the admitted users. tom house? paxton crawford? oh sure, sheffield admitted that he was using. gary sheffield was a great player. what did they do for jeremy giambi and shane monahan?

2- i have a hard time blaming the players for not only believing in the effects of steroids but also their willingness to take them. the average mlb career is about five years. let's say you're a borderline player as it is. you might make the league minimum, maybe a little more, let's say 700k for five years. that's before taxes, expenses, etc...so that's 2 million you have for you and your family to live the rest of your life with? or, you could take this pill and work out more and maybe make a million a year? 2 million a year? i think steroids have a bit of a placebo effect in both players and in fans. players are mostly stupid. they're sold on making more money for the reasons i just mentioned and would like to possibly turn that 700k x 5 years into 1m x 7 years (or more!) and see an opportunity. look at the guys busted this year: guillermo mota; freddy galvas; marlon byrd; melky cabrera; bartolo colon; yasmani grandal. a murderer's row! it's mota's second bust, as he's 39 and trying to stay in the league. galvas? .617 ops in 58 games. byrd? .488 ops in 47 games for two teams. grandal? small sample but he looks like he hit well. steroids in action?! he hit well on the road and not at home...i thought steroids made balls go farther (.392 slg at home).

my ultimate point is that fans and newspaper writers and bloggers, even players...we don't really know what's going on with these drugs. we know that players are forbidden from taking them. as i said above (and others in the thread before me) players are stupid. they cork bats. they slide into first base. they take drugs that have not shown a cumulative effect on their usage v. the player's abilities.

and apologies if my ramblings are a bit off, i have been drinking. fair warning.
That steroids-and-baseball page is one of the most biased, agenda-oriented pieces of tripe I've ever seen and would get laughed out of a first-year statistics class.

The jumps of logic, omissions and outright statistical manipulation to generate the results he wants are just embarassing.

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11-21-2012, 12:35 AM
  #179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robert terwilliger View Post
my issue is two-fold:

1- if steroids work as you and others seem to think; that merely ingesting these drugs makes you stronger and thus a better baseball player, how does one explain the list of bad baseball players who have admitted to being on the gas? at the end of the day, talent is what matters. most professional athletes take supplements, anything to allow them to jump higher, run faster, etc. if they believe that steroids work as they think they do...they're going to do them.

http://steroids-and-baseball.com/actual-effects.shtml
How bad would those bad players be if they hadn't taken the steroids? Yeah steroids don't automaticaly make you a great ball player but you dont think the increased endurance, muscle mass and increased healing toward force generating capabilities?
Quote:
2- i have a hard time blaming the players for not only believing in the effects of steroids but also their willingness to take them. the average mlb career is about five years. i think steroids have a bit of a placebo effect in both players and in fans.
I have a very hard time believing these guys making millions of dollars and risking potential large suspensions dont get a little more informed on the subject. I'm sure there is a bit of a placebo effect but if you dont think increased muscle, endurance and reducing the general wear and tear of a long season dont impact the stats of players then I think youre reaching big time.

His power wasnt increased but his average climbed. Yeah he has to be a good hitter to hit well, but he also saw a huge increase. I'm sure it had nothing to do with that bat feeling much lighter and being able to get that thing swung around a lot quicker to battle the pitchers. In general, a player can use a bigger bat without feeling the impacts while on steroids.

This many guys making that amount of money dont take the risk of steroids without something helping them out other than a placebo effect...

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11-21-2012, 02:17 AM
  #180
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Originally Posted by newfy View Post

His power wasnt increased but his average climbed. Yeah he has to be a good hitter to hit well, but he also saw a huge increase. I'm sure it had nothing to do with that bat feeling much lighter and being able to get that thing swung around a lot quicker to battle the pitchers. In general, a player can use a bigger bat without feeling the impacts while on steroids.

This many guys making that amount of money dont take the risk of steroids without something helping them out other than a placebo effect...
The health argument is such a ******** one. If a player gets surgery to become healthier and improves his play after, its not cheating. But if a guy takes a pill or injection for it its suddenly cheating.

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11-21-2012, 04:00 AM
  #181
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I'm not saying you're wrong but I'd love to know how you know that. Do you not think players are a lot more informed about steroids and how they work then we are. They likely know how to get the best results out of the juice.

Wasnt talking about players but people in general in response to roids working upper body. I've been around people on gear and they all tend to work their top halves. Yet to meet someone get on the gear and work their legs. Just an observation.

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11-21-2012, 04:03 AM
  #182
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it's been mentioned on here before but it's gonna be really annoying when Melky's stats drop a bit next year due to real reasons like his high BABIP and everyone rushes to attribute it to steroids with a knowing smirk on their face

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11-21-2012, 04:08 AM
  #183
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it's been mentioned on here before but it's gonna be really annoying when Melky's stats drop a bit next year due to real reasons like his high BABIP and everyone rushes to attribute it to steroids with a knowing smirk on their face


Very true. Only Trout, Torri Hunter and Dexter Fowler had higher BABIP.

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11-21-2012, 05:27 AM
  #184
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Originally Posted by MS View Post
That steroids-and-baseball page is one of the most biased, agenda-oriented pieces of tripe I've ever seen and would get laughed out of a first-year statistics class.

The jumps of logic, omissions and outright statistical manipulation to generate the results he wants are just embarassing.
Then explain how pretty bad players take steroids and nothing happens to them.

People act like steroids are magic pills that magically make you hit home runs.

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11-21-2012, 06:23 AM
  #185
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MS View Post
That steroids-and-baseball page is one of the most biased, agenda-oriented pieces of tripe I've ever seen and would get laughed out of a first-year statistics class.

The jumps of logic, omissions and outright statistical manipulation to generate the results he wants are just embarassing.
yes sir, sirdy sir sir. next time i'll use something else. thanks for the counter argument.

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Originally Posted by newfy View Post
How bad would those bad players be if they hadn't taken the steroids? Yeah steroids don't automaticaly make you a great ball player but you dont think the increased endurance, muscle mass and increased healing toward force generating capabilities?
how bad are those bad players when they take "performance enhancing drugs" and don't see an enhancing in their performance?

Quote:
I have a very hard time believing these guys making millions of dollars and risking potential large suspensions dont get a little more informed on the subject.
again, players cork their bats and slide headfirst into first base. they're not bright.

Quote:
I'm sure there is a bit of a placebo effect but if you dont think increased muscle, endurance and reducing the general wear and tear of a long season dont impact the stats of players then I think youre reaching big time.
there are plenty of drugs that are legal to take that have these effects. and it goes back to the fact that steroids and amphetamines have been a part of the game for the last 50 years. which players are on them but haven't been caught? which drugs give the effects of steroids without showing up on drug tests? there's a lot out there that we don't know about, let alone that we still don't know the full effects that steroids have on performance.


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His power wasnt increased but his average climbed. Yeah he has to be a good hitter to hit well, but he also saw a huge increase. I'm sure it had nothing to do with that bat feeling much lighter and being able to get that thing swung around a lot quicker to battle the pitchers. In general, a player can use a bigger bat without feeling the impacts while on steroids.
his babip was a career high (and likely unsustainable) .379. when he falls back to earth in toronto and everyone is saying that it's because steroids, look at his babip. he was hitting more line drives and more were falling into place. it happens. laying that squarely at the feet of steroids is a dangerous way to discredit anyone who has a flukey year. flukey years happen. it's not a wonder drug behind them all the time.

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11-21-2012, 08:23 AM
  #186
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^ To the flukey year thing.

When people bring up steroids one of the first things they bring up is always "Brady Anderson!!!1!!"

Anderson's 50 HR season was as flukey as they come. As the next year he regressed right back to the mean.

Why did that happen? Did he just decide "I don't feel like taking these anymore" a year after a career season, when the MLB wasn't even testing for PEDs at the time? I highly doubt that.

He's really an unexplainable case. Other than the 50 HR all his other numbers were relatively the same. But 1996 also set a record for most HRs hit in a season in MLB history. So I'm gonna guess the balls were juiced, pitching just really sucked or both.

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11-21-2012, 08:35 AM
  #187
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http://deadspin.com/5937432/was-mlbs...uiced+ball-era

jay jaffe wrote about the balls being juiced in a bp essay book. deadspin used the article. hopefully it would be allowed in a statistics class! :/

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11-21-2012, 10:09 AM
  #188
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Because you have to exercise when on roids (you can just get on the cycle and expect results) and people only build up top half. You wont see someone get on roids and then do squats, lunges and deadlifts.
Okay, but why do they only work their upper half? Is there an actual medical explanation for it or is it just a trend that you see in the gym?

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11-21-2012, 12:06 PM
  #189
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Okay, but why do they only work their upper half? Is there an actual medical explanation for it or is it just a trend that you see in the gym?
Though the exact amount of affect is immeasurable, steroids greatly improve upper body strength compared to lower.

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11-21-2012, 12:11 PM
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great sign high risk high reward. lovin' the sign

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11-21-2012, 12:21 PM
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Though the exact amount of affect is immeasurable, steroids greatly improve upper body strength compared to lower.
Why?

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11-21-2012, 03:11 PM
  #192
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Though the exact amount of affect is immeasurable, steroids greatly improve upper body strength compared to lower.
Can you prove this?

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11-21-2012, 03:14 PM
  #193
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Why?
http://steroids-and-baseball.com/medical-effects.shtml

Plenty of references and links to articles and books written by doctors and people much smarter than myself.

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11-21-2012, 03:29 PM
  #194
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Then explain how pretty bad players take steroids and nothing happens to them.

People act like steroids are magic pills that magically make you hit home runs.
First off, any drug/alcohol/medicine is going to affect different people differently. Some people are going to be affected tremendously. Some perhaps very little or not at all. Some might just feel sick.

Second, of course steroids aren't going to turn a 5 HR guy into a 50 HR guy. A guy like Bonds was already a top-5 player all time before he hit the roids, and then turned into something utterly freakish. If taking roids adds 10% to your ability, then they're well worth taking but won't turn a terrible player into a great one ... just a less terrible one.

A guy like Freddy Galvis is used as an example of 'steriods don't work!!1!' but after getting on the juice he went from a .586 OPS in AA to a .617 OPS in MLB in a little over a year. Pretty significant improvement.


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yes sir, sirdy sir sir. next time i'll use something else. thanks for the counter argument.
The first problem is that his method - using league-wide stats as a measuring stick - is flawed and he's never going to see a significant result under those metrics, no matter what steroids do.

If 10% of the league is using steroids and they provide an average 10% increase in performance, that's a 1% difference in offense league-wide. In other words, hardly measurable by the metric he's using despite being very significant for the players actually using them.

And that's going from nothing to the 10% in one year. Any increase in users would be incremental - ie. 0.2% each year for 5 years. Or some such. It just isn't going to show up as a significant factor on a league-wide basis in the way he's providing the data.

The second thing he ignores is that *pitchers take them too*. It isn't a one-sided equation. If a similar percentage of pitchers are using roids and getting a similar effect ... the net result league wide will be zero, just with some freaks on juice (Clemens, Bonds) cancelling out on either side of the equation. Now, I'd suspect that less pitchers used steroids and they had less of an effect, but it isn't something that can just be utterly ignored.

The only way to properly figure out exactly what steroids do is to take a group of players using them and a group of players that aren't, do a double-blind test, and compare results over a period of a few years. Obviously we can't do that and it's never going to happen. But 'research' like this provides absolutely nothing to the equation and zero proof about whether steroids work or not.

Then he goes and blatantly manipulates graphs to try and bear out his point - ie. dragging all data back to 1985 instead of 1990 so he can use the juiced-ball 1987 season to give his line a negative slope instead of the well positive one there would have been if the data was from 1990-2005.

Likewise, his treatment of the 'steroids do more to the upper body' thing is ridiculous. It's basically treated as 'steroids *only* help the upper body and hitting *only* comes from the lower body so they do nothing, case closed!' which is of course total rubbish.

Yes, most power comes from the core and lower body. And yes, steroids might help the upper body more. But bigger arms and shoulders are still going to help you hit a ball further, and steroids are still going to help develop your lower body, even if at a lower rate. There's a reason Olympic sprinters have been chronically on steroids for the last 30 years, and it isn't because they're trying to build huge biceps to run with.

And again, of course, it ignores the issue of recovery from injuries/fatigue, etc.


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Originally Posted by robert terwilliger View Post
http://deadspin.com/5937432/was-mlbs...uiced+ball-era

jay jaffe wrote about the balls being juiced in a bp essay book. deadspin used the article. hopefully it would be allowed in a statistics class! :/
Just because one thing is happening doesn't mean something else is happening also.

I don't doubt that the ball might have been altered through that era. That doesn't mean that players doing steroids weren't also improving their numbers by doing so.

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11-21-2012, 07:19 PM
  #195
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Originally Posted by Fish on The Sand View Post
The health argument is such a ******** one. If a player gets surgery to become healthier and improves his play after, its not cheating. But if a guy takes a pill or injection for it its suddenly cheating.
Yeah but I'm sure if those surgeries built muscle across his body, increased his bat speed, allowed him to use a larger bat without feeling the consequences easily and reduced the every day wear and tear of an MLB season AND he got that surgery while he had no health problems the MLB might just outlaw them

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11-22-2012, 08:15 PM
  #196
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Yeah but I'm sure if those surgeries built muscle across his body, increased his bat speed, allowed him to use a larger bat without feeling the consequences easily and reduced the every day wear and tear of an MLB season AND he got that surgery while he had no health problems the MLB might just outlaw them
i remember this doctor once talked about how dumb ass parents would ask him to do tommy john surgury on their sons after seeing that mlb players who had TJ tended to come back with a more powerful arm.

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11-22-2012, 08:21 PM
  #197
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Because you have to exercise when on roids (you can just get on the cycle and expect results) and people only build up top half. You wont see someone get on roids and then do squats, lunges and deadlifts.
Not sure if serious.

You know some exceptionally stupid cyclers if that is the case.

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