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2013 Draft: Stop winnin for MacKinnon, or Do Meth for Seth?

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04-21-2013, 11:47 AM
  #326
tarheelhockey
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A defenseman's future hinges on so much more than the athletic ability and junior-level intelligence that got him drafted. He has to become savvy, well-rounded, seasoned and confident. Coaching and development opportunities play a huge role.

If we're being brutally honest about this organization, could we even say with confidence that we could make something out of a Seth Jones if we were to draft him?

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04-21-2013, 11:51 AM
  #327
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Given what's been happening with Justin Faulk the past 2 seasons I'd say yes.

And I don't think confidence is anything we'll ever have to worry too much about with Seth given his comments heading into this past years WJC.

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04-21-2013, 12:30 PM
  #328
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Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
And I don't think confidence is anything we'll ever have to worry too much about with Seth given his comments heading into this past years WJC.
I'm thinking more of confidence in making reads and executing complex plays, not so much ill-advised comments to the media.

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04-21-2013, 03:06 PM
  #329
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
I'm thinking more of confidence in making reads and executing complex plays, not so much ill-advised comments to the media.
I dunno if it was ill advised. Sometimes you gotta fire people//team mates up and generate some excitement.

Especially in the NHL, a league where the only acceptable goal celebration is to skate to the bench with your head down and feel shame.

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04-21-2013, 03:10 PM
  #330
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I dunno if it was ill advised. Sometimes you gotta fire people//team mates up and generate some excitement.

Especially in the NHL, a league where the only acceptable goal celebration is to skate to the bench with your head down and feel shame.
I'd say comments like that would be HIGHLY ill advised in an NHL context. Hopefully wherever he goes, that lesson is impressed upon him before his first presser.

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04-21-2013, 03:16 PM
  #331
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I'd say comments like that would be HIGHLY ill advised in an NHL context. Hopefully wherever he goes, that lesson is impressed upon him before his first presser.
You're probably right, but sometimes I just wanna see guys let loose a bit. For example, I hate watching interviews with players in series where they're up 3-0.

All they do is stare at the floor and talk about how hard the 4th game is to win and that the other team is really good and might come back etc etc.

Just once I'd love to hear a player be like "Man, we got this, we got this by the ass, ain't no way those fools coming back, hell they'll be lucky to win a game, never mind the series."

This is probably why I like the NBA and NFL so much

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04-21-2013, 03:18 PM
  #332
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The last thing I want us to do is reach for a defenseman in the 1st. Seth Jones? Sure. I personally have Mackinnon #1, but there's no denying that the need and the pro potential is there. After that, there are 6-7 forwards I'd take before Nurse or Ristolainen. Considering that we'll most likely be picking in the 3-5 range, a defenseman seems like a hell of a reach for me when there are still (imo) elite forward prospects on the board.

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04-21-2013, 05:08 PM
  #333
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Originally Posted by Aquin001 on Ice View Post
The last thing I want us to do is reach for a defenseman in the 1st. Seth Jones? Sure. I personally have Mackinnon #1, but there's no denying that the need and the pro potential is there. After that, there are 6-7 forwards I'd take before Nurse or Ristolainen. Considering that we'll most likely be picking in the 3-5 range, a defenseman seems like a hell of a reach for me when there are still (imo) elite forward prospects on the board.
Yeah, I fully expect the pick to be a forward if we don't get Jones. And that's fine with me, we've had better luck going forward in the 1st and defenseman in the 2nd, so I'd rather not reach and just take BPA. If we fall out of the top 3, I expect us to go for guys like Monahan, Shinkaruk, or Domi over Nichushkin, Lindhom, or even Barkov. It's just how we draft, CHL all the way

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04-21-2013, 05:17 PM
  #334
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I really hope not. Again, I don't think Nurse is a reach at #4 at all, I expect him to be off the board by #7 at the latest and there's not much if anything separating Barkov, Lindholm, Monahan, and Nurse IMO. I'm prepared to be dead wrong, but for the sake of the team long term I REALLY hope I'm right, or even better that I don't have to be (we win the lottery or pick #2 and Florida takes MacKinnon #1).

That said, if we do take a forward, prepare to be pissed off. Tlusty will likely be on his way out the door if we do IMO.

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04-21-2013, 05:42 PM
  #335
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Instead this is about Jones transition from excellent dman prospect heading into the NTDP to an exceptional one staring with the U-18 team as a 16 year old. Going to the Portland Winterhawks and doing what he's done there put him at #1 and his WJC showing has only helped the cause.
I think some may be *slightly* overprojecting when it comes to Jones, but not terribly. I was curious as to what my buddy thought of him...he came back with "great defenseman. Size, skills, skating, shot, range. Top 2 defenseman eventually. Worry about level of drive as he becomes too comfortable at times."

I guess from that I'd glean that it's not like some view him as the absolute surefire #1 d-man stud that others may. However, these types of players, the studs, are so rare that it's not like it'd be a disappointment if he was one of the better #2s in the league.

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04-21-2013, 06:42 PM
  #336
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I really hope not. Again, I don't think Nurse is a reach at #4 at all, I expect him to be off the board by #7 at the latest and there's not much if anything separating Barkov, Lindholm, Monahan, and Nurse IMO. I'm prepared to be dead wrong, but for the sake of the team long term I REALLY hope I'm right, or even better that I don't have to be (we win the lottery or pick #2 and Florida takes MacKinnon #1).

That said, if we do take a forward, prepare to be pissed off. Tlusty will likely be on his way out the door if we do IMO.
Do you mean this summer, or next summer? I'm not sure why Tlusty would be the odd man out.

And I'm not necessarily opposed to Nurse, I'm just not convinced he's that high on our draft board. Guys like Shinkaruk and Domi have Canes draft pick written all over them, and if we fall to the 4-7 range I think they're just as, if not more likely. We all known developing defenseman, regardless of draft position, is far from an exact science, and we seem to have good luck with the 2nd rounders, so I expect them to stick with that strategy. We're all just guessing at the end of the day though, for all we know our scouts could absolutely love Nurse, like they did Murphy 2 years ago. Regardless, hopefully we pick in the top 3 and can just grab one of those guys.

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04-21-2013, 07:02 PM
  #337
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Originally Posted by BanginLikeaBiscuit View Post
Do you mean this summer, or next summer? I'm not sure why Tlusty would be the odd man out.

And I'm not necessarily opposed to Nurse, I'm just not convinced he's that high on our draft board. Guys like Shinkaruk and Domi have Canes draft pick written all over them, and if we fall to the 4-7 range I think they're just as, if not more likely. We all known developing defenseman, regardless of draft position, is far from an exact science, and we seem to have good luck with the 2nd rounders, so I expect them to stick with that strategy. We're all just guessing at the end of the day though, for all we know our scouts could absolutely love Nurse, like they did Murphy 2 years ago. Regardless, hopefully we pick in the top 3 and can just grab one of those guys.
Not this summer, next summer or some time next season.

ONLY reason he'd be the odd man out is that 1 - Ruutu has an NTC, 2 - we'd be adding another skilled forward via the draft, and 3 - he's the one player in our top 6 we don't have our cart fully tied to long term.

With Faulk and he both upcoming on RFA status the same offseason, and adding a cheap replacement like Barkov/Monahan/Nichushkin/Lindholm, it's simple capology. We can keep Tlusty and let Pitkanen walk, making the worst blueline in the league even ****tier, or we keep Pitkanen and move Tlusty out knowing we have a blue chip forward that should be contributing the next season. Only way we'll be able to keep both is if the cap rises a metric ton heading into the 2014-15 season. And the more sensible move isn't keeping Tlusty in that case unfortunately. We have some nice pieces on the blueline prospect wise, but absolutely NONE are blue chip quality, not unless Murphy shocks the world next season.

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04-21-2013, 07:02 PM
  #338
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Originally Posted by BanginLikeaBiscuit View Post
Do you mean this summer, or next summer? I'm not sure why Tlusty would be the odd man out.
His value right now is a 30 goal scorer in an 82 game season who is getting paid 1.7 million next year.

Combine that with the cap going down and the fact that he is literally our only piece with value that isn't nailed to the floor, and we could probably get a very nice piece if we pawn him off.

Totalkev had a nice quote a couple weeks ago...It's better to sell a player a year too early than a year too late.

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04-21-2013, 07:04 PM
  #339
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http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1409453

They're onto us guys. BRB need to stab out my eyes after reading that crap, especially the ridiculously idiotic notions that hockey needs to become the North American version of soccer by instituting relegation, selling at the deadline = tanking, and abolishing the draft.

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04-21-2013, 07:22 PM
  #340
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Originally Posted by Highway to Cap Hell View Post
His value right now is a 30 goal scorer in an 82 game season who is getting paid 1.7 million next year.

Combine that with the cap going down and the fact that he is literally our only piece with value that isn't nailed to the floor, and we could probably get a very nice piece if we pawn him off.

Totalkev had a nice quote a couple weeks ago...It's better to sell a player a year too early than a year too late.
Oh I agree, right now would definitely be the best time to trade Tlusty, especially if it can bring us back a legit top 4 (preferably top 2) defenseman. Tlusty + McBain + 2nd for Marc Staal

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Not this summer, next summer or some time next season.

ONLY reason he'd be the odd man out is that 1 - Ruutu has an NTC, 2 - we'd be adding another skilled forward, and 3 - he's the one player in our top 6 we don't have our cart fully tied to long term.

With Faulk and he both upcoming on RFA status the same offseason, and adding a cheap replacement like Barkov/Monahan/Nichushkin/Lindholm, it's simple capology. We can keep Tlusty and let Pitkanen walk, making the worst blueline in the league even ****tier, or we keep Pitkanen and move Tlusty out knowing we have a blue chip forward that should be contributing the next season. Only way we'll be able to keep both is if the cap rises a metric ton heading into the 2014-15 season. And the more sensible move isn't keeping Tlusty in that case unfortunately. We have some nice pieces on the blueline prospect wise, but absolutely NONE are blue chip quality, not unless Murphy shocks the world next season.
Good points. Although I'm not too thrilled with the idea of breaking up the one good thing the team has going for it, all of the reasons for keeping him are the exact reasons why his trade value would be pretty high. And on the contracts in our top 6, I mentioned this in another thread, but I think we've created a well defined 3-5 year window of contention, where we have a true top 6/bottom 6. A 2-4 year extension for Tlusty would fit in with that model, so it'll be interesting to see what happens there.

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04-21-2013, 07:27 PM
  #341
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So lemme get this straight. We finally have a top line that does not get shuffled every other game and pretty consistently scores, so we dump Tlusty? We have not had a line like this in like 6 years.

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04-21-2013, 07:31 PM
  #342
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So lemme get this straight. We finally have a top line that does not get shuffled every other game and pretty consistently scores, so we dump Tlusty? We have not had a line like this in like 6 years.
I don't want to dump Tlusty at all. He's my favorite player on the team this year.

But he is far and away our most tradable asset. He has the value, his contract is amazing, we already have two All Stars on his line (thereby thinking "We can put LaRose there and they'll be fine"), and there is a chance that this season is a total fluke and he doesn't produce anything close to this next year.

I want to see him stay long term, but JR is an idiot if he doesn't at least make some calls to see what a Tlusty for X swap will get him.

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04-21-2013, 07:33 PM
  #343
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Why are people still operating under the delusion that this team is going to spend to the cap? We're in no position to take on someone's "cap dump", especially in exchange for a cheap, productive player.

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04-21-2013, 07:43 PM
  #344
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The Tlusty question will be put to rest when JR signs him to a 4 year/18 million extension in the offseason.

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04-21-2013, 07:43 PM
  #345
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The Tlusty question will be put to rest when JR signs him to a 4 year/4.5 million extension in the offseason.
You forgot the NTC.

Also, ninja skills catching your post before the edit.

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04-21-2013, 07:58 PM
  #346
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Why are people still operating under the delusion that this team is going to spend to the cap? We're in no position to take on someone's "cap dump", especially in exchange for a cheap, productive player.
Because the cap will be much lower, we're in a position to afford it, and we should be able to put together a set of players worth spending the cap on next year, with the clear expectation of a significantly higher cap the year after that?

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04-21-2013, 08:02 PM
  #347
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We should trade Tlusty for Tlusty. Because a 25yo defensively responsible LW coming off a 30g+ pace making only 1.7 million a year is exactly what this team needs.

The scouting report on Nurse sounds great. Frustrating that the 'highlight reel' is just him floating pucks towards low quality goalies, that eventually find their way in the net.

From what I've read, not sure why he wouldn't be a top 5 guy. On paper, he sounds like just what we need.

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04-21-2013, 08:45 PM
  #348
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Because the cap will be much lower, we're in a position to afford it, and we should be able to put together a set of players worth spending the cap on next year, with the clear expectation of a significantly higher cap the year after that?
“I’ve got to start to figure out ways that we can get our payroll in better line with what our business does.”

That was Rutherford last month. That does not sound like someone who thinks he will spending to the cap, which even with the drop will be $7M above what the team spent this year (or would have over the course of a full season).

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04-21-2013, 09:02 PM
  #349
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I'm not sure how JR has any choice but to spend to the cap. Between the monster contracts and the NTCs, there's only so much he can do to cut salary. And he's already picked the low-hanging fruit by dumping Jussi.

We have a couple of obviously overpaid players we could cut out of the picture (namely Corvo and LaRose), but beyond that it would have to involve moving Pitkanen or Skinner, neither of which seems very likely.

To me, this is essentially a cap team by default.

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04-21-2013, 09:12 PM
  #350
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Even if that's the case, where is the cap room coming from to add a significant contract?

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