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The new All Purpose Lu Thread (MOD Warning in OP)

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Old
11-21-2012, 09:52 PM
  #726
Vankiller Whale
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
That's not the argument. The argument was elite goalies declining before or around the age of 35-37. You've already stated three for me:

Giguere
Cujo
Belfour

...and if I put thought into it I could name way more.
Belfour played well until he was 39, and only had one bad season with Dallas in between. He played excellently with the Leafs his first two years there.

And I wouldn't put Cujo on the same level as the others, but he was consistent up until he was fairly consistent until the year after the lockout, when he was 36/37.


Last edited by Vankiller Whale: 11-21-2012 at 09:57 PM.
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11-21-2012, 09:53 PM
  #727
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Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
Are we discussing what a similar package Columbus could have gotten from Toronto if we were after Nash?

Why is that even in this thread? I'm confused.
I was going to compare Nash's value to Lu's. I'm starting to regret the idea.

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11-21-2012, 09:57 PM
  #728
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I was going to compare Nash's value to Lu's. I'm starting to regret the idea.
It's hard to do when you're dealing with differnt positions. It's also hard to compare the two of them cause they are both different ages and at different stages of their career. Nash is just entering his prime. Lu is 5 yrs removed from entering his prime.

I have other points to make, but the arguement seems moot. No offense.

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11-21-2012, 09:58 PM
  #729
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
Gigure and Cujo were both inconsistent before_and_after 35... that makes sense. Belfour had some of his best statistical seasons around 40, I'm not sure what you're talking about there.
Ah you might be right... ok so Belfour, Brodeur, and one other goalie I can't think of is enough to prove that Luongo should be able to play at an elite level at 38?

It's still absurd.

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11-21-2012, 09:59 PM
  #730
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Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
It's hard to do when you're dealing with differnt positions. It's also hard to compare the two of them cause they are both different ages and at different stages of their career. Nash is just entering his prime. Lu is 5 yrs removed from entering his prime.

I have other points to make, but the arguement seems moot. No offense.
Fair enough. And be careful what you say around here.

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11-21-2012, 09:59 PM
  #731
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
It's hard to do when you're dealing with differnt positions. It's also hard to compare the two of them cause they are both different ages and at different stages of their career. Nash is just entering his prime. Lu is 5 yrs removed from entering his prime.

I have other points to make, but the arguement seems moot. No offense.
Not necessarily because goalies and forwards reach their prime at different ages. I'm not saying Luongo is in the same position as Nash relatively, but difference between prime years I think is as little as 2 or 3 to be fair.

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11-21-2012, 10:01 PM
  #732
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Fair enough. And be careful what you say around here.
Fair enough But the truth is right there in black and white.

Regardless, I enjoy when everyone gets along and we have civil conversations. Afterall, we are just fans of the incredible game of hockey.

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11-21-2012, 10:04 PM
  #733
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Not necessarily because goalies and forwards reach their prime at different ages. I'm not saying Luongo is in the same position as Nash relatively, but difference between prime years I think is as little as 2 or 3 to be fair.
I'd concede to that point in certain circumstances. It takes a special goalie, is Luongo one of those. Debatable, as we don't know what is next for Luongo. My position is that he is on the decline (to a degree) as he lost the #1 goalie spot (also, not to say he's not capable of stealing it back, that is yet to be seen)

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Old
11-21-2012, 10:06 PM
  #734
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To Washington: Luongo, Saad

To Chicago: Holtby

To Vancouver: Forsberg

For a change of pace.

Washington is looking to compete now, and it's unlikely they'd want to rely on a rookie as their starter. They get forward prospect who's ready to play in the NHL now, thereby greatly increasing their chance to compete now.

Vancouver gets a legitimate blue chip prospect who might be able to take up the mantle a little bit when the Sedins retire.

Chicago gets a goalie and they already have a disgustingly good forward group, so can afford to give up Saad for an area of need.

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11-21-2012, 10:25 PM
  #735
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Ah you might be right... ok so Belfour, Brodeur, and one other goalie I can't think of is enough to prove that Luongo should be able to play at an elite level at 38?

It's still absurd.
You can't prove it until he does it. It's equally as absurd to assume that one of the most consistent goalies in history is going to fall off a cliff at 37. If I'm putting money on it, I'm going to bet that the guy that has been consistent stays consistent.

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11-21-2012, 10:27 PM
  #736
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Actually, I think he's really loosened up since the Boston series. If anything he's taken that experience and used it to make himself stronger. I'd be willing to bet we won't see any "chokes" from Luongo for the rest of his career.
This is why I think Van should keep him.

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11-21-2012, 10:32 PM
  #737
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DougGilmour93 View Post
I'd concede to that point in certain circumstances. It takes a special goalie, is Luongo one of those. Debatable, as we don't know what is next for Luongo. My position is that he is on the decline (to a degree) as he lost the #1 goalie spot (also, not to say he's not capable of stealing it back, that is yet to be seen)
Your position is not backed up by facts.

Luongo's SV% over the last...
8 years: .9203
4 years: .9198
2 years: .9237

Furthermore, it is a false statement to claim "he lost the #1 goalie spot". It is accurate to claim "he lost his spot for the final 3 games of one series". However, even this claim is a bit dishonest without context. Luongo was the team's best player over the first 2 games of that series. The reason he "lost" his spot was because the team generally sucked and needed a change of something. One way to change the atmosphere of a team is to switch goalies. And since the team felt as though they had two elite goalies ready to play, they thought they might as well switch them up.

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11-21-2012, 10:45 PM
  #738
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Actually, I think he's really loosened up since the Boston series. If anything he's taken that experience and used it to make himself stronger. I'd be willing to bet we won't see any "chokes" from Luongo for the rest of his career.
There's a difference between mental fatigue and mental strength. I don't think he can stay focused over a long period of time like he was capable of when he first arrived. However this shouldn't be much of an issue, because he'll never be playing 70 games a year for the rest of his career. I would tentatively agree that he's mentally stronger now than he was in those Chicago series, but that's not really what I was referring to. He was definitely mentally fatigued against Boston though. It was clear to everyone who watched game 7.

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Old
11-21-2012, 11:10 PM
  #739
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You can't prove it until he does it. It's equally as absurd to assume that one of the most consistent goalies in history is going to fall off a cliff at 37. If I'm putting money on it, I'm going to bet that the guy that has been consistent stays consistent.
First, no one can prove what Luongo will be like at 37. It hasn't happened yet.

All we can do is make an educated guess. History suggests that it is unlikely Luongo can be an elite goalie at 38. Not saying he won't.

Simple as. There is a reason why goalies [and even players] are not commonly signed past 38, a decade prior. There is far too much risk and if you look at the history of NHL goaltenders you'll see the trend.

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11-21-2012, 11:15 PM
  #740
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Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
First, no one can prove what Luongo will be like at 37. It hasn't happened yet.

All we can do is make an educated guess. History suggests that it is unlikely Luongo can be an elite goalie at 38. Not saying he won't.

Simple as. There is a reason why goalies [and even players] are not commonly signed past 38, a decade prior. There is far too much risk and if you look at the history of NHL goaltenders you'll see the trend.
But even if he's not "elite" at 37, he can still be average, and still worth his cap hit(Kari Lehtonen signed for a 6 mil cap hit, Bryzgalov's at 5.7mil, etc). Even if he puts up decent numbers like Nabokov is, it would still be fine to keep him for that time period.

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11-21-2012, 11:17 PM
  #741
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What if a team traded for Crosby, and he took a step back? He has head issues?

What if Parise has knee issues and can no longer perform up to par?

What if Riemer plays like he did after the concussion?

Everything is a gamble some are just better to try.
Yeah, and Luongo's is not one of the ones you are better of trying. Point proven.

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11-21-2012, 11:19 PM
  #742
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
You can't prove it until he does it. It's equally as absurd to assume that one of the most consistent goalies in history is going to fall off a cliff at 37. If I'm putting money on it, I'm going to bet that the guy that has been consistent stays consistent.
Hahahahaha, you do know this is our Luongo we are talking about right?

When only 2 or 3 other goalies have played very well after that age, compared to the other amount of FANTASTIC goalies that couldn't, better to stay on the logical side here.

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11-21-2012, 11:19 PM
  #743
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Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
First, no one can prove what Luongo will be like at 37. It hasn't happened yet.

All we can do is make an educated guess. History suggests that it is unlikely Luongo can be an elite goalie at 38. Not saying he won't.

Simple as. There is a reason why goalies [and even players] are not commonly signed past 38, a decade prior. There is far too much risk and if you look at the history of NHL goaltenders you'll see the trend.
I have looked at the history and saw a trend, elite goalies, especially ones that have consistent careers, are much more likely than the field to play well in their late 30's. There aren't a lot of examples because there aren't a lot of goalies that have had the career Lu has.

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11-21-2012, 11:22 PM
  #744
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Originally Posted by KaraLupin View Post
Hahahahaha, you do know this is our Luongo we are talking about right?

When only 2 or 3 other goalies have played very well after that age, compared to the other amount of FANTASTIC goalies that couldn't, better to stay on the logical side here.
Luongo has never had a season under a .913 save percentage in his career, that's consistency.

Who are these fantastic goalies that tried to play into their late 30's and couldn't?

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11-21-2012, 11:25 PM
  #745
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
But even if he's not "elite" at 37, he can still be average, and still worth his cap hit(Kari Lehtonen signed for a 6 mil cap hit, Bryzgalov's at 5.7mil, etc). Even if he puts up decent numbers like Nabokov is, it would still be fine to keep him for that time period.
I'll agree that might happen, although I'm talking 38. But that is wagered on the contract. Kari Lehtonen is only 29 and may improve in the next few seasons. I'm willing to bet that's what Dallas thinks as an up and coming goaltender. [contract ends at 35]

I think Bryz is an elite goalie and I think he'll bounce back. His contract is just horrendous though.

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11-21-2012, 11:31 PM
  #746
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
I have looked at the history and saw a trend, elite goalies, especially ones that have consistent careers, are much more likely than the field to play well in their late 30's. There aren't a lot of examples because there aren't a lot of goalies that have had the career Lu has.
I can't believe I'm getting sucked into this argument again.

What goalies at the age of 38 have been considered elite in the NHL?

And what a goalie experiences in their career is fairly irrelevant. We're talking about physiologically and psychological changes in a person's body.


Last edited by marty111: 11-21-2012 at 11:36 PM.
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11-21-2012, 11:59 PM
  #747
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Originally Posted by marty111 View Post
I can't believe I'm getting sucked into this argument again.

What goalies at the age of 38 have been considered elite in the NHL?

And what a goalie experiences in their career is fairly irrelevant. We're talking about physiologically and psychological changes in a person's body.
What kind of career a guy has had should definitely be taken into consideration. A bad season after 37 by a guy that was having bad seasons his whole career doesn't say much.

Fun game, I'll give a guy that has played well over 37 and you give one that tried but couldn't, ok?

Belfour

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11-22-2012, 02:39 AM
  #748
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
To Washington: Luongo, Saad

To Chicago: Holtby

To Vancouver: Forsberg

For a change of pace.

Washington is looking to compete now, and it's unlikely they'd want to rely on a rookie as their starter. They get forward prospect who's ready to play in the NHL now, thereby greatly increasing their chance to compete now.

Vancouver gets a legitimate blue chip prospect who might be able to take up the mantle a little bit when the Sedins retire.

Chicago gets a goalie and they already have a disgustingly good forward group, so can afford to give up Saad for an area of need.
So Washington is looking to compete now and hence they would not want a rookie starter. So what are the Hawks trying do in acquiring Holtby? Rebuild?

Pass by the way. Zero interest in Saad for Holtby.

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11-22-2012, 02:43 AM
  #749
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So Washington is looking to compete now and hence they would not want a rookie starter. So what are the Hawks trying do in acquiring Holtby? Rebuild?

Pass by the way. Zero interest in Saad for Holtby.
Can't see Chicago moving Saad and can't see Washington electing to move Holtby in a Lou deal....Neuvirth yes for sure. Not Holtby.

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11-22-2012, 02:45 AM
  #750
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What kind of career a guy has had should definitely be taken into consideration. A bad season after 37 by a guy that was having bad seasons his whole career doesn't say much.

Fun game, I'll give a guy that has played well over 37 and you give one that tried but couldn't, ok?

Belfour
I think Khabibulin fits the description
Marty Turco is about to fit
Nabokov may

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