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The Luongo Thread: Another Brick in the Wall Edition

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11-24-2012, 03:19 AM
  #251
Bleach Clean
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Originally Posted by Reverend Mayhem View Post
Bozak
Frattin
Ashton
Finn
Percy
Colborne
Kadri
picks

Do you really see any of those pieces making an impact on the Canucks? Maybe Finn or Percy in 3 or 4 years. 1st round pick won't be an impact player for another 3 years.

I don't see why we want any of those pieces back. We were one win away from winning the Cup 18 months ago. We don't just trade a star goalie for that. I wouldn't make a trade for Luongo for all the pieces I named. Those are quantity pieces that are an easy way out of this ordeal. This team doesn't need quantity pieces, we need quality pieces.


Ok then, let's hear your quality based deal from TO. Get it on the record.



As to your derision of all those pieces, you are first going to have to define "impact". Only then, will I know how to address it. For instance, many advocate that Lupul will make an impact here - while I think he will only be a reduced asset here due to his reduced role. He will put up less points, get less opportunity etc... Essentially, he would move from an ideal situation to a not-so-ideal one. Are you ok with that "impact"? Picture his EDM and PHI days, if that, not his TO breakout.



Not to mention that Kadri should already be playing in the NHL. That Frattin has played as TO's 3rd liner. So these types are ready to play now. As to their impact? I just think it's a matter of having shown it already vs. already seeing it with Lupul. Obviously, the latter is going to be favoured because he's established himself as an NHLer, but for me, I take Kadri + Frattin over Lupul every time. I've heard all the counters. His track record is too up and down to rely on, and he would be leaving his optimal environment. I guess I'm just higher on what Kadri + Frattin will bring in comparison.

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11-24-2012, 03:48 AM
  #252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Ok then, let's hear your quality based deal from TO. Get it on the record.



As to your derision of all those pieces, you are first going to have to define "impact". Only then, will I know how to address it. For instance, many advocate that Lupul will make an impact here - while I think he will only be a reduced asset here due to his reduced role. He will put up less points, get less opportunity etc... Essentially, he would move from an ideal situation to a not-so-ideal one. Are you ok with that "impact"? Picture his EDM and PHI days, if that, not his TO breakout.



Not to mention that Kadri should already be playing in the NHL. That Frattin has played as TO's 3rd liner. So these types are ready to play now. As to their impact? I just think it's a matter of having shown it already vs. already seeing it with Lupul. Obviously, the latter is going to be favoured because he's established himself as an NHLer, but for me, I take Kadri + Frattin over Lupul every time. I've heard all the counters. His track record is too up and down to rely on, and he would be leaving his optimal environment. I guess I'm just higher on what Kadri + Frattin will bring in comparison.
Lupul will do better for us than any other piece TO is going to give us. I don't expect him to be a 67 point guy. I expect him to put up 50-55 points while Kesler and Higgins/Booth can help him. His defensive game might be called into question and I understand that side of it, but we have a very good defense and a very good goalie either way this shakes down. It's not like he's going to be floating around either.

Kadri should already be playing in the NHL? He hasn't shown any real chops and for what it's worth I think he's Josh Bailey without the defensive side of the game. He's useless for us. Frattin may be a 3rd liner in Toronto, but he's at best a 4th liner here. We already got Weise, Malhotra, Lapierre, Kassian and maybe Raymond who have qualified themselves as 4th line players on the team depending on how everything shakes out. We need less of those players, not more.

I'm not saying that Lupul doesn't have his own problems, but do you really see Frattin/Kadri having less problems than him? Kadri's had tons of problems already in Toronto. Imagine what he faces when he has real expectations here in Vancouver. New system, it's no secret that AV preaches defensive responsibility to his young players. AV would be on Kadri's case before you could say Dorito.

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11-24-2012, 06:38 AM
  #253
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So you think if lupul is traded here, he would put up similar numbers as last year? Then I assume you believe he would replicate his production (or his pace, anyways) this year, if he stays on the Leafs?
The only reason i think he would regress isn't due to him but to system. If Carlyle plays any kind of defensive trap system then our offense as a whole regresses. If that line is cut loose on offense, i see no reason why he regresses. It's also his contract year....so....

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11-24-2012, 08:38 AM
  #254
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
In a vacuum, who would you prefer, Hemsky or Lupul(disregarding divisional rival thing)?
Geeze, well one is extremely injury prone, and comes with a big contract the other is slightly injury prone and will get a raise after this season to be a big contract... if we go with the one with the curent big contract maybe we can flip him for something?

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Originally Posted by Reverend Mayhem View Post
The futures do nothing for us except may keep us a good team that makes the playoffs and is out in round 1 or 2. Sedins aren't going to be on this team much longer as the key offensive players. Futures don't make sense for us in the now or the future.
With the Cap coming down make a roster that is realistic for us. Futures are just that, they are thinking about the future. They help against that lowering of the cap. As Bleach said a guy like Frattin who has already played NHL hockey could be very useful to fill out a roster, same with any of the guys who could be on cheap or ELC.

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Old
11-24-2012, 09:12 AM
  #255
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Originally Posted by Reverend Mayhem View Post
Lupul will do better for us than any other piece TO is going to give us. I don't expect him to be a 67 point guy. I expect him to put up 50-55 points while Kesler and Higgins/Booth can help him. His defensive game might be called into question and I understand that side of it, but we have a very good defense and a very good goalie either way this shakes down. It's not like he's going to be floating around either.


He's the definition of a floater. Coming here will definitely cost him production, bank on it.



The problem I see with getting Lupul is that it's so short-sighted so as to be a throw away asset. He's be here and gone in a yr. While here, who knows what you are going to get? Are you getting the guy that was unceremoniously removed from 3 teams already, or the guy with excellent chemistry with Kessel?



Lastly, how do you know Lupul will do better for us than any other piece? I think given playstyle questions and other factors, guys like Kulemin and Frattin project to be much more useful to this team as a whole.



Quote:
Kadri should already be playing in the NHL? He hasn't shown any real chops and for what it's worth I think he's Josh Bailey without the defensive side of the game. He's useless for us. Frattin may be a 3rd liner in Toronto, but he's at best a 4th liner here. We already got Weise, Malhotra, Lapierre, Kassian and maybe Raymond who have qualified themselves as 4th line players on the team depending on how everything shakes out. We need less of those players, not more.


I'm going out on a limb here but I think many will be surprised as to Kadri's production in the NHL moving forward. He will get his points. Is 40 out of line to project for this year? He's a mature prospect that has been held back due to shoddy development (Wilson) and wing depth in TO. Yet he's had strong possession numbers in his brief NHL stints. I believe this guy is a player.



He's been PPG in the AHL for 3 seasons now (including this one). And he was PPG early in his pro career. Players like that tend to produce when they advance. It's only a matter of time.



So my thinking is, if Kadri is going to produce and have similar question marks to Lupul, why not go with the kid and have Frattin - who also has a gaudy goalscoring ability in the AHL, as Scurr keeps pointing out - along as
Well? I guess I'm more about the projection of these two than what Lupul is now, and I don't have the same fear you do about Kadri and Frattin.



Quote:
I'm not saying that Lupul doesn't have his own problems, but do you really see Frattin/Kadri having less problems than him? Kadri's had tons of problems already in Toronto. Imagine what he faces when he has real expectations here in Vancouver. New system, it's no secret that AV preaches defensive responsibility to his young players. AV would be on Kadri's case before you could say Dorito.


I think Frattin would have little to no problem here - he fits what this team is trying to do and AV will be a fan IMO.



With Kadri, it will be the same as Lupul. I see both being played in the same way here. However, with Kadri you have the added benefit of molding a younger player while Lupul is what he is.



As to Kadri's problems in TO, some of what has happened to him is warranted, some of it completely undeserved. He's still high risk with the puck, and that's got to be ironed out. Away from the puck, he's underrated IMO (advanced stats), but in a visual sense still looks lost at times. Which is why Wilson took him to task. Then there's conditioning where Eakins called him out, only to see Kadri shake off the rust and bounce back to a PPG. It goes both ways.



I'm projecting him to produce in the show. I know many others aren't. But to me, he's got the edge and will to make it happen. And when it does, his value will sky rocket... Granted, maybe it never does, and my projection is totally off. Still, the reason for valuing him like I do right now remains the same. If he eventually evens out value with Lupul, I'll take Kadri.


Last edited by Bleach Clean: 11-24-2012 at 09:21 AM.
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Old
11-24-2012, 09:29 AM
  #256
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Originally Posted by shortshorts View Post
I truly believe shutting down our second line is all a matter of shutting down just Kesler. Having a more balanced second line will make us stronger as a team in the end, IMO.

However, an additional counter argument to my proposal, is that we become weaker defensively by the subtraction of Kesler.

Many people don't see my views about Kesler and our offense, but I'm sticking by my guns.
The problem is we need another Kesler not to get rid of the one we have. If you honestly analyze the Canucks we have five real top 6 forwards (Sedin, Sedin, Kesler, Burrows, Booth) and two good two-way centres (with Lappy and Maholtra being defense only guys).

Look at teams that have won the Cup recently, they all have at least three guys that could be deployed as two way centres and good depth:

-LA, you could argue 8 top 6 caliber players (Kopitar, Brown, Richards, Carter, Williams Gagner, Penner, and Stoll).

-BOS, you could argue 9 top 6 caliber players (Krejci, Lucic, Bergeron, Horton, Recchi, Marchand, Ryder, Seguin, and Peverly).

-CHI, you could argue 9 (Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp, Versteeg, Brouwer, Ladd, Befuglien, and Bolland).

-PIT, you could argue 8 given that their amazing centres make their wingers better (Malkin, Crosby, Staal, Kunitz, Sykora, Fedotenko, Satan, and Guerin)

-DET, you could argue 8. (Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Holmstrom, Clearly, Samuelsson, Franzen, Filppula, and Hudler) - it's almost like Detroit knew it needed three two-way centres for the playoffs and often moved Datsyuk and Zetterberg as centres on separate lines in while they played together a lot during the regular season.

The playoffs are a grind and at different times players are going to step up and others are going to slump of get injured. In our run to the finals, the Sedins stepped up against SJ and early in the Chicago series, Kesler ran the Nashville series and was effective against Thornton and Toews. Burrows chipped in obviously here and there and we didn't have Booth (who did nothing last year). We need another guy to make our 3rd line a real threat but the guy has to be able to handle his own defensively as well. A two-way playmaker like Getzlaf or Plekanec (or even Ribeiro or Roy) would be huge as they would mesh well with Booth, which I don't think Kesler is a good fit with. Mix that with getting the Sedins to concentrate on defense would allow us to have three good two-way lines and a 4th line that can hold their own defensively. We would probably need a tough guy to play for either Maholtra or Raymond during the regular season.

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows
Booth - Plekanec - Kassian
Higgins - Kesler - Hansen
Maholtra - Lappy - Raymond

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11-24-2012, 10:50 AM
  #257
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
The problem is we need another Kesler not to get rid of the one we have. If you honestly analyze the Canucks we have five real top 6 forwards (Sedin, Sedin, Kesler, Burrows, Booth) and two good two-way centres (with Lappy and Maholtra being defense only guys).

Look at teams that have won the Cup recently, they all have at least three guys that could be deployed as two way centres and good depth:

-LA, you could argue 8 top 6 caliber players (Kopitar, Brown, Richards, Carter, Williams Gagner, Penner, and Stoll).

-BOS, you could argue 9 top 6 caliber players (Krejci, Lucic, Bergeron, Horton, Recchi, Marchand, Ryder, Seguin, and Peverly).

-CHI, you could argue 9 (Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp, Versteeg, Brouwer, Ladd, Befuglien, and Bolland).

-PIT, you could argue 8 given that their amazing centres make their wingers better (Malkin, Crosby, Staal, Kunitz, Sykora, Fedotenko, Satan, and Guerin)

-DET, you could argue 8. (Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Holmstrom, Clearly, Samuelsson, Franzen, Filppula, and Hudler) - it's almost like Detroit knew it needed three two-way centres for the playoffs and often moved Datsyuk and Zetterberg as centres on separate lines in while they played together a lot during the regular season.

The playoffs are a grind and at different times players are going to step up and others are going to slump of get injured. In our run to the finals, the Sedins stepped up against SJ and early in the Chicago series, Kesler ran the Nashville series and was effective against Thornton and Toews. Burrows chipped in obviously here and there and we didn't have Booth (who did nothing last year). We need another guy to make our 3rd line a real threat but the guy has to be able to handle his own defensively as well. A two-way playmaker like Getzlaf or Plekanec (or even Ribeiro or Roy) would be huge as they would mesh well with Booth, which I don't think Kesler is a good fit with. Mix that with getting the Sedins to concentrate on defense would allow us to have three good two-way lines and a 4th line that can hold their own defensively. We would probably need a tough guy to play for either Maholtra or Raymond during the regular season.

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows
Booth - Plekanec - Kassian
Higgins - Kesler - Hansen
Maholtra - Lappy - Raymond



Ideally, yes. But of FLA and TOR, the two guys you are looking at to fulfill that requirement are Grabovski and Wiess. Neither of which is likely to move.



It's important to note though that you said 2way, and ideally a playmaker, which should move the discussion away from the more offensively suspect 3rd liners that have been brought up before. No, what you are talking about here is a very difficult piece to get and maintain - especially with the expected cap drop next year.



Better to grow your own option, or to give up something in the exchange so that the cost is less. For instance, maybe Schroeder can have a 2way + playmaking impact on the roster - and he doesn't seem to hurt you defensively. Or, you can go with a more offensive option knowing that his D play will be less than ideal. It's kind of a catch 22, you can get that piece, but you will have to pay and steep price and it will be difficult to maintain. Or, you can get a more maintainable option but you will have to grow it and it will have question marks.



Oh, and as an aside: If LA has 8 top6 forwards with Penner, Stoll, and Gagne having the huge question marks that they do, then VAN definitely does as well by adding Higgins, Raymond and Hansen. Jus sayin.

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11-24-2012, 12:31 PM
  #258
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Trade1: Luongo + Connauton + Sweatt + 2nd in 2014 for Theodore + Kulikov + 4th in 2014

Florida's salary structure doesn't change much, considering Kulikov's raise.

Trade2: Kesler, Alberts for Bogosian, Little/Burmistrov

Down grade on center to upgrade on defense.

Any thoughts on value?

INB4 "Kesler is heart and soul of team"
Not a fan of getting even smaller and softer with the subtraction of Kesler and addition of Little.

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11-24-2012, 12:41 PM
  #259
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I'm going out on a limb here but I think many will be surprised as to Kadri's production in the NHL moving forward. He will get his points. Is 40 out of line to project for this year? He's a mature prospect that has been held back due to shoddy development (Wilson) and wing depth in TO. Yet he's had strong possession numbers in his brief NHL stints. I believe this guy is a player.
I like Kadri as a talent but I'm not sure that's true.

I'm confused by your sudden change in thinking regarding the style that is going to win in the playoffs and who we should target. Have you changed your thinking or is Kadri that special?

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11-24-2012, 12:46 PM
  #260
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The playoffs are a grind and at different times players are going to step up and others are going to slump of get injured. In our run to the finals, the Sedins stepped up against SJ and early in the Chicago series, Kesler ran the Nashville series and was effective against Thornton and Toews. Burrows chipped in obviously here and there and we didn't have Booth (who did nothing last year). We need another guy to make our 3rd line a real threat but the guy has to be able to handle his own defensively as well
Yes! I've been saying this and getting shouted down for three years on this board. We have 2nd line wingers on our 3rd line, why handicap them with a 4th line centre?

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11-24-2012, 02:01 PM
  #261
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I like Kadri as a talent but I'm not sure that's true.

I'm confused by your sudden change in thinking regarding the style that is going to win in the playoffs and who we should target. Have you changed your thinking or is Kadri that special?



"Mature" as in age and development time lol. But granted, he still has his mental hangups.


I haven't changed my thinking on the style shift to the playoffs, the emphasis should still be on the Frattin/Kulemin types. Along those lines, I realize Lupul and Kadri are not these. So if you have to take one on for value, that's not of the ideal style, I prefer Kadri.


TO doesn't have the player that is both a style + production fit to give up. Doan would have been that guy.

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11-24-2012, 02:18 PM
  #262
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I haven't changed my thinking on the style shift to the playoffs, the emphasis should still be on the Frattin/Kulemin types. Along those lines, I realize Lupul and Kadri are not these. So if you have to take one on for value, that's not of the ideal style, I prefer Kadri.
If Kadri is the right kind of person I'd take a chance on him, Gillis will certainly find that out first.

I'm a little frustrated that you'd blame Wilson for some of Kadri's shortcomings but dismiss his impact on Bozak's career. Wilson has had far more of an impact on the career of Bozak, who has really only played for him in the NHL.

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11-24-2012, 03:06 PM
  #263
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If Kadri is the right kind of person I'd take a chance on him, Gillis will certainly find that out first.

I'm a little frustrated that you'd blame Wilson for some of Kadri's shortcomings but dismiss his impact on Bozak's career. Wilson has had far more of an impact on the career of Bozak, who has really only played for him in the NHL.


I think Wilson has had a greater impact on Kadri's career than Bozak's own. A greater negative impact. Consider that prospects are already devalued compared to NHLers. When Kadri made mistakes, his punishment was to be sent down. When Bozak made mistakes, he'd be shifted in the line-up --> These things are worlds apart because Bozak was still afforded the opportunity to figure out the NHL. Not so for Kadri.



Then there's the key point about progression at a younger age. Kadri will always have that in his back pocket over Bozak. If we are projecting players, I have tended to favour this data set. So for me, Bozak is far less a sure thing for that reason. And lastly, the few articles on breaking down Bozak's play over the seasons aren't flattering. Thus, it's natural to question him as an asset going forward.

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11-24-2012, 06:22 PM
  #264
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Not a fan of getting even smaller and softer with the subtraction of Kesler and addition of Little.
What kind of trade would you like if Luongo has to be traded?

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11-24-2012, 06:35 PM
  #265
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So with the season likely to get cancelled will this hurt Luongo's trade value, leave it the same or increases it?

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11-24-2012, 06:43 PM
  #266
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So with the season likely to get cancelled will this hurt Luongo's trade value, leave it the same or increases it?
He turns 34 in April, that won't be too helpful.

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11-24-2012, 06:48 PM
  #267
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So with the season likely to get cancelled will this hurt Luongo's trade value, leave it the same or increases it?
Am I the only one who still thinks there'll be a season? They're pretty close right now, the negativity in the media is probably mostly posturing. I bet we'll see games by the new year.

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11-24-2012, 07:26 PM
  #268
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Well, Bleach we've both made our case. I'm on borrowed time here so I'll just say we agree to disagree and time will tell what happens. I do understand I've been wrong before but I do have much concern to the quantity package over my quality package. I guess we'll see when this damned lockout ever ends.

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11-24-2012, 11:40 PM
  #269
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Well, Bleach we've both made our case. I'm on borrowed time here so I'll just say we agree to disagree and time will tell what happens. I do understand I've been wrong before but I do have much concern to the quantity package over my quality package. I guess we'll see when this damned lockout ever ends.


Hey I could be wrong about Kadri too. Wouldn't be the first time. I am _projecting_ Kadri's production after all.



Something interesting about quality vs quantity. Kadri is only "quantity" because he hasn't proven himself yet. His skill level is rare though. Something better than Lupul's own IMO. So while I he doesn't have the experience, he has every chance to become a quality player on the level of a Lupul, or beyond. Thus, not the traditional quantity vs. quality relationship.

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11-25-2012, 12:17 AM
  #270
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Am I the only one who still thinks there'll be a season? They're pretty close right now, the negativity in the media is probably mostly posturing. I bet we'll see games by the new year.
You have the right of it - if you filter the drama you can see progress is getting made and that they're now close to a deal. Most people aren't able to separate out the posturing to see that. I figure things start sorting themselves out in two weeks or so.


Last edited by Wisp: 11-25-2012 at 12:23 AM.
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11-25-2012, 02:51 AM
  #271
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I don't see Kadri being a top 6 forward on a winning team. I don't like his attitude, he disappears, shows up out of shape, looks small out there. Not a fan and wouldn't trade Luongo for him thats for sure. Forget where he was drafted it means nothing and look at what he's done on the ice.

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11-25-2012, 05:29 AM
  #272
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Ideally, yes. But of FLA and TOR, the two guys you are looking at to fulfill that requirement are Grabovski and Wiess. Neither of which is likely to move.

Better to grow your own option, or to give up something in the exchange so that the cost is less. For instance, maybe Schroeder can have a 2way + playmaking impact on the roster - and he doesn't seem to hurt you defensively. Or, you can go with a more offensive option knowing that his D play will be less than ideal. It's kind of a catch 22, you can get that piece, but you will have to pay and steep price and it will be difficult to maintain. Or, you can get a more maintainable option but you will have to grow it and it will have question marks.
Given our time frame, it's going to be impossible to grow our own. I do not see a situation where Jordan Schroeder, at his size, will be able to match up defensively against the giant centres in the league. He might be a guy you can bring up who can spark your offense but there's simply no way he is a good long-term match as a centre in a lineup that has Henrik Sedin playing defense the way he has the last few years.

The goal for the Luongo trade is to either find "Ryan Kesler 2.0" or to acquire the pieces which will allow us to acquire a player like Kesler...this likely means 1sts, 2nds, top prospects which we can deal at the deadline. Ultimately, if we don't get these pieces, we might as well keep Luongo who provides, IMO much needed, cover for Schneider in case he can't step up to a starters role...this is a big transition that a lot of people are assuming he will make seamlessly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Oh, and as an aside: If LA has 8 top6 forwards with Penner, Stoll, and Gagne having the huge question marks that they do, then VAN definitely does as well by adding Higgins, Raymond and Hansen. Jus sayin.
Fact is, Penner and Gagne have shown they can score a lot of goals in the NHL and have done it multiple times. Stoll is the most borderline but he has shown that he can be an effective two-way guy scoring 20 goals and 40 points fairly consistently (with an average of 42 points a season, one year way over, one way under).

Higgins has scored over 40 points twice in his 7 year career. Raymond has scored 40 points once in his 4 year career (average . Hansen has scored over 40 points nonece in his career (39 last year was pretty damn good though).

If we are comparing the three Canucks guys to Stoll they are close but Stoll still averages more production than any of them and is a gritty two-way guy who does bring a lot of intangibles. None of the Canucks provide near the physical presence or goal-scoring of Penner or the two-way skill of Gagne (note, Gagne didn't really factor in).

I do think that guys like Higgins, Raymond, and Hansen (and even Kassian) can be considered top 6 level players if put in the right situation. Any of them next to the Sedins are top 6 level players. Any of them next to a skilled two-way centre, such as Kesler or say Rebeiro/Plekanec/Getzlef are top 6 level players however any of them next to Max Lappiere or Manny Maholtra (even before the injury) are bottom 6 level players who can't be relied on for offense. Sometimes its all about fit.

This is why I strongly believe that we need to push hard to get a guy like Getzlaf or even Roy, or Rebeiro if they become available as they even out our lineup. The problem is, we have three top offensive players (Sedins and Kesler) but if any one of them gets hurt it basically shuts their line down which leaves only one line to shutdown which is pretty easy in the playoffs where you can clutch and grab like there's no tomorrow. This is magnified further when you think about our powerplay where we don't really have a 2nd unit.

If we just stepped up and offered a 1st for Rebeiro (he was traded for a 2nd + prospect) our forward lineup would look pretty damn good (but we'd have to move either Luongo or Ballard for salary) and Rebeiro could run the 2nd powerplay unit.

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows
Booth - Rebeiro - Raymond/Kassian
Higgins - Kesler - Hansen

Is a formidable forward group with enough depth to have one of the centres get injured and any two of the wingers. Take Rebeiro away and add an injury to either Sedin or Kesler renders the unit pretty inept offensively. The playoffs are a grind and you have to be ready to embrace it...we have a ton of depth in goal and at defense but none at forward in terms of guys you can rely on to create offense.

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11-25-2012, 08:51 AM
  #273
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
Given our time frame, it's going to be impossible to grow our own. I do not see a situation where Jordan Schroeder, at his size, will be able to match up defensively against the giant centres in the league. He might be a guy you can bring up who can spark your offense but there's simply no way he is a good long-term match as a centre in a lineup that has Henrik Sedin playing defense the way he has the last few years.

The goal for the Luongo trade is to either find "Ryan Kesler 2.0" or to acquire the pieces which will allow us to acquire a player like Kesler...this likely means 1sts, 2nds, top prospects which we can deal at the deadline. Ultimately, if we don't get these pieces, we might as well keep Luongo who provides, IMO much needed, cover for Schneider in case he can't step up to a starters role...this is a big transition that a lot of people are assuming he will make seamlessly.



Fact is, Penner and Gagne have shown they can score a lot of goals in the NHL and have done it multiple times. Stoll is the most borderline but he has shown that he can be an effective two-way guy scoring 20 goals and 40 points fairly consistently (with an average of 42 points a season, one year way over, one way under).

Higgins has scored over 40 points twice in his 7 year career. Raymond has scored 40 points once in his 4 year career (average . Hansen has scored over 40 points nonece in his career (39 last year was pretty damn good though).

If we are comparing the three Canucks guys to Stoll they are close but Stoll still averages more production than any of them and is a gritty two-way guy who does bring a lot of intangibles. None of the Canucks provide near the physical presence or goal-scoring of Penner or the two-way skill of Gagne (note, Gagne didn't really factor in).

I do think that guys like Higgins, Raymond, and Hansen (and even Kassian) can be considered top 6 level players if put in the right situation. Any of them next to the Sedins are top 6 level players. Any of them next to a skilled two-way centre, such as Kesler or say Rebeiro/Plekanec/Getzlef are top 6 level players however any of them next to Max Lappiere or Manny Maholtra (even before the injury) are bottom 6 level players who can't be relied on for offense. Sometimes its all about fit.

This is why I strongly believe that we need to push hard to get a guy like Getzlaf or even Roy, or Rebeiro if they become available as they even out our lineup. The problem is, we have three top offensive players (Sedins and Kesler) but if any one of them gets hurt it basically shuts their line down which leaves only one line to shutdown which is pretty easy in the playoffs where you can clutch and grab like there's no tomorrow. This is magnified further when you think about our powerplay where we don't really have a 2nd unit.

If we just stepped up and offered a 1st for Rebeiro (he was traded for a 2nd + prospect) our forward lineup would look pretty damn good (but we'd have to move either Luongo or Ballard for salary) and Rebeiro could run the 2nd powerplay unit.

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows
Booth - Rebeiro - Raymond/Kassian
Higgins - Kesler - Hansen

Is a formidable forward group with enough depth to have one of the centres get injured and any two of the wingers. Take Rebeiro away and add an injury to either Sedin or Kesler renders the unit pretty inept offensively. The playoffs are a grind and you have to be ready to embrace it...we have a ton of depth in goal and at defense but none at forward in terms of guys you can rely on to create offense.
First and foremost, Kesler would never be bumped to the third line by anyone short of Getzlaf, Malkin and etc. He is a poor's first line center, therefore making him border overqualified to play on the second. Furthermore, you are targeting far too high caliber centers and would demand a hefty price tag. There is no scenario we acquire Plekanec without losing Hamhuis or Kesler. Montreal cavets him and unless they see a sizable offer, he will stay. Ribeiro was only just acquired by Washington, and even setting that aside. They will not bother chasing Luongo when a legitimate second line center is among their biggest weaknesses.

Your scenarios simply are unrealistic, unless we pay a premium that itself would not be worthwhile.

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11-25-2012, 10:04 AM
  #274
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I don't see Kadri being a top 6 forward on a winning team. I don't like his attitude, he disappears, shows up out of shape, looks small out there. Not a fan and wouldn't trade Luongo for him thats for sure. Forget where he was drafted it means nothing and look at what he's done on the ice.
I think Kadri is a pretty talented guy and I was entertaining a lot of trade proposals previously that had him involved.

But I agree with you that his attitude is questionable.

Seen guys before that have the talent but the attitude gets in the way of realizing that talent's full potential.

Kadri throws up some caution signs.

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11-25-2012, 10:29 AM
  #275
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
Given our time frame, it's going to be impossible to grow our own. I do not see a situation where Jordan Schroeder, at his size, will be able to match up defensively against the giant centres in the league. He might be a guy you can bring up who can spark your offense but there's simply no way he is a good long-term match as a centre in a lineup that has Henrik Sedin playing defense the way he has the last few years.

The goal for the Luongo trade is to either find "Ryan Kesler 2.0" or to acquire the pieces which will allow us to acquire a player like Kesler...this likely means 1sts, 2nds, top prospects which we can deal at the deadline. Ultimately, if we don't get these pieces, we might as well keep Luongo who provides, IMO much needed, cover for Schneider in case he can't step up to a starters role...this is a big transition that a lot of people are assuming he will make seamlessly.


The goal in the Luongo deal is to bring as much value back as possible, no matter what it's form. Setting your sights on a Kesler level return is completely unrealistic. Also, keeping Luongo indefinitely is also not an option. He wants out. So Gillis is on the clock.



This issue about Timeframe is confusing matters with posters IMO. Some want a "now" piece because they feel this is the best year for them to compete, but an all-or-nothing strategy completely misses the point of sustaining long-term success. You can get a now piece but you will lose that piece, or something else of equal salary, as soon as next year when the cap shrinks to 60m. What then?



Talking about Windows is fine. But you are ensuring your window is finite by making deals like this and just letting important assets walk a short time after. It's just not how you build a team.




Quote:
Fact is, Penner and Gagne have shown they can score a lot of goals in the NHL and have done it multiple times. Stoll is the most borderline but he has shown that he can be an effective two-way guy scoring 20 goals and 40 points fairly consistently (with an average of 42 points a season, one year way over, one way under).

Higgins has scored over 40 points twice in his 7 year career. Raymond has scored 40 points once in his 4 year career (average . Hansen has scored over 40 points nonece in his career (39 last year was pretty damn good though).

If we are comparing the three Canucks guys to Stoll they are close but Stoll still averages more production than any of them and is a gritty two-way guy who does bring a lot of intangibles. None of the Canucks provide near the physical presence or goal-scoring of Penner or the two-way skill of Gagne (note, Gagne didn't really factor in).


This is the same Dustin Penner that had his worst statistical season last year: 17 points in 65 games... Hardly a force. Gagne's body has basically broken down, resulting in 34 games played, and Stoll's season resulted in 21 points within 78 games. Basically, the recency of data makes all three players look highly suspect.



If we ignore the recency of data, then Jason Garrison doesn't get 4.6m per for 6 yrs. Gagne doesn't get traded for scraps. LA wouldn't be handcuffed with Penner's contract, and LA fans wouldn't be calling for Stoll's head throughout the season... but then they all put it together and so now we are viewing them in an idealized manner. I understand they have strong track records. But you have to put more weight in the last few years because that data set should be weighted (I've been corrected on this too in fact).


Consistency and health count. Higgins and Hansen are there every night, chipping in as well as backchecking. Raymond was doing this until he broke his back. We cannot discount their top6 ability while in the same breath overvaluing the play the of the players you just listed, who did not perform at a top6 rate this past year. There's got to be a balance in the analysis.




Quote:
I do think that guys like Higgins, Raymond, and Hansen (and even Kassian) can be considered top 6 level players if put in the right situation. Any of them next to the Sedins are top 6 level players. Any of them next to a skilled two-way centre, such as Kesler or say Rebeiro/Plekanec/Getzlef are top 6 level players however any of them next to Max Lappiere or Manny Maholtra (even before the injury) are bottom 6 level players who can't be relied on for offense. Sometimes its all about fit.

This is why I strongly believe that we need to push hard to get a guy like Getzlaf or even Roy, or Rebeiro if they become available as they even out our lineup. The problem is, we have three top offensive players (Sedins and Kesler) but if any one of them gets hurt it basically shuts their line down which leaves only one line to shutdown which is pretty easy in the playoffs where you can clutch and grab like there's no tomorrow. This is magnified further when you think about our powerplay where we don't really have a 2nd unit.

If we just stepped up and offered a 1st for Rebeiro (he was traded for a 2nd + prospect) our forward lineup would look pretty damn good (but we'd have to move either Luongo or Ballard for salary) and Rebeiro could run the 2nd powerplay unit.

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows
Booth - Rebeiro - Raymond/Kassian
Higgins - Kesler - Hansen

Is a formidable forward group with enough depth to have one of the centres get injured and any two of the wingers. Take Rebeiro away and add an injury to either Sedin or Kesler renders the unit pretty inept offensively. The playoffs are a grind and you have to be ready to embrace it...we have a ton of depth in goal and at defense but none at forward in terms of guys you can rely on to create offense.


While I agree that the Canucks could use better offensive depth (what team couldn't?), what you are advocating is unsustainable. Why do you think Gillis didn't go after Ribeiro or Roy? I'm guessing it had something to do with their salary, and the expected drop to a 60m cap next year.



It's basically two camps it seems. The "now" group who want to go all in this year, wanting the best NHL piece coming back for Luongo, regardless of the consequences at the end of the year. And the other group, who wants futures and mid-aged players that haven't warranted a huge raise, in an attempt to fit as much talent on the roster this year _and_ subsequent years. The divide is becoming clear...

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