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The Luongo Thread: Another Brick in the Wall Edition

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Old
11-23-2012, 03:14 PM
  #176
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Shot quality factors in also.
I'd argue that since neither team really plays a defensive style that it is likely that a goalie's save% wouldn't vary too much either way. If the save% stays the same, given the same number of shots, then the goals against stays the same.

Let's not forget that Luongo's best save% ever came in Florida, not Vancouver.

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11-23-2012, 03:18 PM
  #177
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Can you please list the guys Toronto "can't move"?

Like start with the most untouchable and go from there.

I'd imagine it would be something like this:
Kessel
Phaneuf
Grabovski
Gardiner

Is it safe to say those are the 4 pieces you 'cant move' (whoops forgot Nieder...I mean Rielly).

Because after these players the list becomes pretty bleak from a Vancouver standpoint.
Lupul
Kulemin
Bozak

Like off the top of my head, those are the only 3 players on your roster you personally would move for Lu, right?

Because couldn't you just replace Grabo with Bozak, Connolly, or Lombardi...I've seen the sell job on why those guys help Vancouver.

Couldn't you replace Gardiner with Blacker, Rielly, Holzer, their supposedly good.

I don't know, its just me, but the value of excellent goaltending far out weighs the rest of the holes on Toronto's roster (ones that they have players to fill from within).

But that's just me I guess.
I will actually give you my list BUT, you have to know that it isn't anything to do with Luongo's value, but moreso Toronto need.

Roster players that could move:
Kulemin
Macarthur
Bozak
Lupul
Frattin
Connolly
Lombardi
Steckel

Prospects that could move:
Kadri
Colborne
Ashton
Blacker
Percy

Possibles:
Finn
1st
Holzer

Roster that CAN'T move (for positional reasons)
Kessel
JVR (just brought in)
Grabo
Phaneuf
Liles
Gardiner
Gunnar
Komi (i know, but we only have 5 D-men signed right now)
Brown (heart and soul guy, only fighter left)
McClement (just brought in)

Prospects not available:
Reilly

Now, keep in mind i may have missed some and again, some of the nogo's are strictly because we don't have the NHL ready depth.

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11-23-2012, 03:18 PM
  #178
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
But we also know Gillis targetted Marc-Andre Gragnani for a while too, I think he probably targetted him as a 'free' prospect out of NCAA and used him as a throw in contract for his proposal.
From my understanding KConn made MaG redundant, and the club wanted to give some NHL minutes to KConn this season, the same may end up being true with Bozak, but I don't think that doesn't mean he was a piece that was wanted by Gillis. look at the situations, we are a bit weak down the middle after Hank and Kess. Manny may not return to form, and Lappy is great at his role. In the minors we only have Shroeder, who I actually really like (Keep in mind when we made this offer we also didn't have Gaunce yet).

Again this original argument started as who would you rather have Connelly or Bozak.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
Ars...let me see if i can respond without sounding like an ass. Here is a list of assets that have been discussed that most Nuck's fans feel "suck" and have no place in Van.
Kadri,Colborne,Kulimen,Macarthur,Lupul,Connolly,Lo mbardi,Bozak,Franson,Schenn,Ashton,Reimer,Scrivens .

Then there are the ones that got some positive response but still got shot down because of contract:
Grabovski,Phaneuf.

I think we can safely say Kessel (obvious) and JVR (Burke just aquired him) are off the table.

That doesn't leave much...unwilling is a word i guess you could use when discussing Gardiner, but not for stupborness...for need. If we deal Gardiner that leaves Phaneuf/Gunner/Liles and Komi as our only signed NHL dmen. Rielly is a nogo and i think anyone would understand that. I am now under the firm beleaf that there is zero deal to be made here.
I still disagree a bit, I don't think we are perfect trading partners, but we are better then you are making out. You guys don't have an expendable piece that would a perfect center piece to a trade, but there are many things I think could be attractive.

Let's look at the list of guys I can remember:

Kadri -I think he is an attractive piece, not sure AV would play him, but has lots of value
Colborne - He is your best flat out center prospect
Kulimen - again has value, but after last season it is lower, and he is not enough of an upgrade over our own tweeners is an upgrade though
Macarthur - see most of above
Lupul - More value to you guys, for sure, especially as he is a UFA, and with a shrinking Cap I don't think we could keep him long term
Connolly - cap dump
Lombardi, see above

Now I think the list changes

Bozak, - I actually have really come around on him and see an upgrade good piece
Franson - unsigned so little value to either club
Schenn - Would have liked him
Ashton - good prospect
Reimer - Goalies not needed
Scrivens - see above
Grabovski - You guys would want to keep your best center, for us, doesn't fit cap wise
Phaneuf - your captain doubt he goes anywhere
Gardiner - Would love him, but as you have mentioned
Rielly - pretty much see above (also helps he is a Hollyburn kid go Huskies)
1st - Want one, especially in a deep draft
Blacker - Want a D prospect
Frattin - Good big young kid
Ashton - Good young big prospect
Percy - Want a D prospect
Finn - Want a D prospect

I am sure there is more but that is what gets brought up.

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11-23-2012, 03:23 PM
  #179
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Originally Posted by racerjoe View Post
From my understanding KConn made MaG redundant, and the club wanted to give some NHL minutes to KConn this season, the same may end up being true with Bozak, but I don't think that doesn't mean he was a piece that was wanted by Gillis. look at the situations, we are a bit weak down the middle after Hank and Kess. Manny may not return to form, and Lappy is great at his role. In the minors we only have Shroeder, who I actually really like (Keep in mind when we made this offer we also didn't have Gaunce yet).

Again this original argument started as who would you rather have Connelly or Bozak.



I still disagree a bit, I don't think we are perfect trading partners, but we are better then you are making out. You guys don't have an expendable piece that would a perfect center piece to a trade, but there are many things I think could be attractive.

Let's look at the list of guys I can remember:

Kadri -I think he is an attractive piece, not sure AV would play him, but has lots of value
Colborne - He is your best flat out center prospect
Kulimen - again has value, but after last season it is lower, and he is not enough of an upgrade over our own tweeners is an upgrade though
Macarthur - see most of above
Lupul - More value to you guys, for sure, especially as he is a UFA, and with a shrinking Cap I don't think we could keep him long term
Connolly - cap dump
Lombardi, see above

Now I think the list changes

Bozak, - I actually have really come around on him and see an upgrade good piece
Franson - unsigned so little value to either club
Schenn - Would have liked him
Ashton - good prospect
Reimer - Goalies not needed
Scrivens - see above
Grabovski - You guys would want to keep your best center, for us, doesn't fit cap wise
Phaneuf - your captain doubt he goes anywhere
Gardiner - Would love him, but as you have mentioned
Rielly - pretty much see above (also helps he is a Hollyburn kid go Huskies)
1st - Want one, especially in a deep draft
Blacker - Want a D prospect
Frattin - Good big young kid
Ashton - Good young big prospect
Percy - Want a D prospect
Finn - Want a D prospect

I am sure there is more but that is what gets brought up.
I guess the problem becomes the quantity of pieces asked for as well.

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Old
11-23-2012, 03:26 PM
  #180
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
I guess the problem becomes the quantity of pieces asked for as well.
True, but we have worked out good value before. My ideal trade at this point I think would be

Bozak
Finn
Frattin
1st

I think you would find that too much, so then it becomes whats the mid point, where we are both satisfied. I think you and I have done this dance before.

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11-23-2012, 03:29 PM
  #181
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
I'd argue that since neither team really plays a defensive style that it is likely that a goalie's save% wouldn't vary too much either way. If the save% stays the same, given the same number of shots, then the goals against stays the same.

Let's not forget that Luongo's best save% ever came in Florida, not Vancouver.


The theory still discounts defensive play, even transitional play, which the Canucks are built off of. You cannot draw a straight line across these goalies by simply doing a save % analysis. Because the same shot quality caveat will pop up. Until D play can be as readily quantified, it's just not going to fly as anything conclusive. It's a good indicator, but not wholly conclusive.

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11-23-2012, 03:32 PM
  #182
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Quote:
Originally Posted by racerjoe View Post
True, but we have worked out good value before. My ideal trade at this point I think would be

Bozak
Finn
Frattin
1st

I think you would find that too much, so then it becomes whats the mid point, where we are both satisfied. I think you and I have done this dance before.


I'd be ok with that deal as well, but I would wonder if leafs fans value Bozak or Kadri more? If it's the same, I'd prefer Kadri comes back instead. Which probably works for the leafs too because they keep their 1C.

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11-23-2012, 03:32 PM
  #183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by racerjoe View Post
True, but we have worked out good value before. My ideal trade at this point I think would be

Bozak
Finn
Frattin
1st

I think you would find that too much, so then it becomes whats the mid point, where we are both satisfied. I think you and I have done this dance before.
My mid point, Make the 1st protected and change Finn to Blacker.

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11-23-2012, 03:34 PM
  #184
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
I'd be ok with that deal as well, but I would wonder if leafs fans value Bozak or Kadri more? If it's the same, I'd prefer Kadri comes back instead. Which probably works for the leafs too because they keep their 1C.
6 of one, half dozen of the other. Most Leaf fans understand Bozak's value (good 3C/2C call up).

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11-23-2012, 03:45 PM
  #185
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
The theory still discounts defensive play, even transitional play, which the Canucks are built off of. You cannot draw a straight line across these goalies by simply doing a save % analysis. Because the same shot quality caveat will pop up. Until D play can be as readily quantified, it's just not going to fly as anything conclusive. It's a good indicator, but not wholly conclusive.
We agree on that...its not perfect but its the best were going to do. I suppose looking at shots against at ES vs PK vs PP would be helpful but I'm not really willing to do that.

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11-23-2012, 03:52 PM
  #186
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
I will actually give you my list BUT, you have to know that it isn't anything to do with Luongo's value, but moreso Toronto need.

Roster players that could move:
Kulemin
Macarthur
Bozak
Lupul
Frattin
Connolly
Lombardi
Steckel

Prospects that could move:
Kadri
Colborne
Ashton
Blacker
Percy

Possibles:
Finn
1st
Holzer

Roster that CAN'T move (for positional reasons)
Kessel
JVR (just brought in)
Grabo
Phaneuf
Liles
Gardiner
Gunnar
Komi (i know, but we only have 5 D-men signed right now)
Brown (heart and soul guy, only fighter left)
McClement (just brought in)

Prospects not available:
Reilly

Now, keep in mind i may have missed some and again, some of the nogo's are strictly because we don't have the NHL ready depth.
I think I would be happy with Lupul, Kadri, 1st. I know there are questions with those pieces, because Lupul would (I have to imagine) be looking for a big pay-day next contract, so we likely couldn't afford to re-sign him. And with Kadri, I'm still not quite sold on his production being able to carry over to the NHL. And The 1st is very likely imo to be in the second half of the first round (15th - 30th) with Luongo holding down the net.

So there are question marks for the pieces, but they are all quality pieces. What do you guys think? And LL, would you do that trade?

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11-23-2012, 03:55 PM
  #187
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Originally Posted by Socratic Method Man View Post
I think I would be happy with Lupul, Kadri, 1st. I know there are questions with those pieces, because Lupul would (I have to imagine) be looking for a big pay-day next contract, so we likely couldn't afford to re-sign him. And with Kadri, I'm still not quite sold on his production being able to carry over to the NHL. And The 1st is very likely imo to be in the second half of the first round (15th - 30th) with Luongo holding down the net.

So there are question marks for the pieces, but they are all quality pieces. What do you guys think? And LL, would you do that trade?
If the 1st is protected...probably, although i think it's a bit much (equates to our 1st line winger, top NHL ready prospect and our 1st). But, Lupul's UFA status means something.

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11-23-2012, 04:00 PM
  #188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
If the 1st is protected...probably, although i think it's a bit much (equates to our 1st line winger, top NHL ready prospect and our 1st). But, Lupul's UFA status means something.
Lupul's UFA status negates the protected 1st for me. 1st can't be protected in this offer for me.

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11-23-2012, 04:03 PM
  #189
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
If the 1st is protected...probably, although i think it's a bit much (equates to our 1st line winger, top NHL ready prospect and our 1st). But, Lupul's UFA status means something.
Interesting. So this might be the highest value that could be considered a fair trade. I would top-10 protect the 1st because I would be confident that Luongo would put you in the playoffs.

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11-23-2012, 04:04 PM
  #190
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
My mid point, Make the 1st protected and change Finn to Blacker.
Even simpler:

Bozak, Finn, 1st. Keep Blacker and Frattin.

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11-23-2012, 04:04 PM
  #191
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Originally Posted by Taelin View Post
Lupul's UFA status negates the protected 1st for me. 1st can't be protected in this offer for me.
There's still an outside shot that Lupul could re-sign with us... but I agree it would be unlikely.

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11-23-2012, 04:16 PM
  #192
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There's still an outside shot that Lupul could re-sign with us... but I agree it would be unlikely.
To be honest, while i'd deal Lupul, i think he resigns here. Burke likes him, and Lupul seems happy here.

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11-23-2012, 04:24 PM
  #193
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I actually agree, i hope you find one.
Don't worry about it, we will

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11-23-2012, 04:29 PM
  #194
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Originally Posted by Liferleafer View Post
My mid point, Make the 1st protected and change Finn to Blacker.
Done, the first with that package should be a playoff one, so protect, and we get a 1st next draft, and a pick of some sort this one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
I'd be ok with that deal as well, but I would wonder if leafs fans value Bozak or Kadri more? If it's the same, I'd prefer Kadri comes back instead. Which probably works for the leafs too because they keep their 1C.
I would be fine with Kadri as well, just wonder if we would except an entire package based on futures. As I said earlier I am high on Shreoder, and would like to see him as the #3C this season. So I can be easily be talked into taking Kadri, not sure Gillis would be.

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11-23-2012, 04:31 PM
  #195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ginner classic View Post
Even simpler:

Bozak, Finn, 1st. Keep Blacker and Frattin.
No thank you.

Lupul, Finn, 1st for Luongo.

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11-23-2012, 04:33 PM
  #196
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Leafer would you deal Gunnarsson if you had a replacement coming back?

I don't know about other posters here but I'd be sorely tempted to change gears and make a couple of upgrades to the roster as the return for Luongo rather than taking a handful of good-but-not-great prospects.

Say, Luongo and Ballard for Gunnarsson, and a couple of prospects of the Colborne/Percy/Blacker/Biggs ilk plus a couple of mid round picks.

(I know Ballard's reputation is awful around here but I am convinced he could be a top four defenseman on most other teams - Toronto seems to have a few other players who could play the right beyond Gunnar so the odds of Ballard forming an effective pairing with someone would be pretty high IMO.)

It would give the Canucks six defensemen who could at least moonlight in the top four, and three defensemen who can comfortably play on the right side. Maybe the best defensive depth that we've ever been able to get into the lineup all at once.

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11-23-2012, 04:37 PM
  #197
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Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
Leafer would you deal Gunnarsson if you had a replacement coming back?

I don't know about other posters here but I'd be sorely tempted to change gears and make a couple of upgrades to the roster as the return for Luongo rather than taking a handful of good-but-not-great prospects.

Say, Luongo and Ballard for Gunnarsson, and a couple of prospects of the Colborne/Percy/Blacker/Biggs ilk plus a couple of mid round picks.

(I know Ballard's reputation is awful around here but I am convinced he could be a top four defenseman on most other teams - Toronto seems to have a few other players who could play the right beyond Gunnar so the odds of Ballard forming an effective pairing with someone would be pretty high IMO.)

It would give the Canucks six defensemen who could at least moonlight in the top four, and three defensemen who can comfortably play on the right side. Maybe the best defensive depth that we've ever been able to get into the lineup all at once.
Canucks need a 1st coming back...forget the mid round flotsam and jetsam.

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11-23-2012, 04:42 PM
  #198
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Canucks need a 1st coming back...forget the mid round flotsam and jetsam.
My point is that if we got a player back that definitely fills a major need for the team that it would be tempting to forgo that.

With four top four defensemen and two RFAs (Gunnar and Tanev) beyond that the Canucks could trade any of that flotsam and jetsam, any of their picks, and any of their current stable of defense prospects to address other needs.

Personally I think of the roster players that could come back this way in a deal, Gunnarsson is probably the best and most likely to be useful here.

Of course, I'd take Gunnar and a 1st pretty happily as well.

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11-23-2012, 04:45 PM
  #199
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Originally Posted by ginner classic View Post
Even simpler:

Bozak, Finn, 1st. Keep Blacker and Frattin.


It may be just me, but I think Frattin is a lock to come back. Him and the 1st. These pieces make sense on many levels from just looking at basic requirements.



Kadri comes back too IMO. He's not starting at C in the show and the leafs are stacked depth wise on the wing. He also provides "value" coming back without Burke having to include a Gardiner level prospect.



Round the package out with a D prospect (Finn/Percy) and I think that's the variation that returns.



I like Kadri instead of Bozak because he doesn't block Schroeder. He can be moved to the wing... With Bozak you might as well put Schroeder on the trade block because there will be no space for him.

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11-23-2012, 05:17 PM
  #200
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Alright, if we really want to trade Luongo for a bunch of scrap pieces that won't amount to much, a couple C-level prospects and some draft picks then go ahead. It's a **** return we might as well trade Luo for Florida straight up for Goc.

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