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What would you rather have for your team?

View Poll Results: What would you rather have for your team?
Erik Johnson 107 74.31%
Gustav Nyquist + Brendan Smith + 3rd round pick 37 25.69%
Voters: 144. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
11-24-2012, 10:33 PM
  #51
Lonewolfe2015
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
What this means: If the slim margins of "better than Quincey" do end up with Johnson ahead of Smith, it's not by much. Certainly not by Nyquist+pick. It's rough to even argue that Johnson is Nyquist+pick better than Colaiacovo.
If I'm following your logic here...

"Because player x played more than player y and player x was significantly worse than player z, player y is less than or equal to player z."

That's not even remotely logical in evaluating player talent. Quincey was, is and forever will be worse than Johnson. He was having a better offensive start to the season granted, but KQ seemed to always get a little luckier and work a little harder for himself at the beginning.

Erik Johnson is the type of defender that can beat you at any end of the ice when he's playing his game. Unfortunately the Avs do not have a partner which seems to mesh with his game and he's left cleaning up the mess every game. This makes his offensive game suffer, but really brings out the best in his defensive abilities.

Which are quite simply put, the type of game you'd ask of any #1 defender. Physically dominant, capable of stripping the puck away and carrying it out of the zone effortlessly. What impresses me the most is EJ's ability to skate through the neutral zone seemingly unscathed, it's very rare for such a big defender to be so mobile and smooth handling the puck.

Granted, he is one of my favorite players and was before he came to the Avs, but he's far from the 2nd pairing nonsense or the worse than Smid/Petry garbage people bring up. He's no worse than any team's #2 defender when someone has a more offensively gifted defender on the team (think of EJ as Seabrook in the presence of a Keith).

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Old
11-24-2012, 10:37 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
Source?

He must have been under 15 for the rest of the season... and according to you his minutes went down when Quincey was gone? That makes no sense.

Irregardless, doesn't sound like a top pairing guy to me. No matter dumb your coach is, if a guy is a legit top pair, he won't give 20 min to everyone like Sacco did.
...do the math. I just did.

EJ was injured most of the season with back problems. He went out late Nov, returned to 5-ish games of diminished minutes (removing those games puts him at 22mins TOI/G) and then subsequently had 2-3 games he left early because of back problems. The whole season he was fighting the back problems off and on.

Between Sacco sharing the minutes amongst our defense and EJ possibly being too injured to handle an additional 3-4 minutes per night, a picture can start to be gleemed into what went on I would hope.

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Old
11-24-2012, 11:20 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Qward View Post
Actually, a draft is used for the selection of a prospect.
So, a "3rd round pick" is an undetermined player.
Therefore they are still a person, not a thing. You are still incorrect.

I did understand your post.

Glad you attempted to mock me. Worked out well.
Well I thought it was funny.

It's STILL God's work you're doing.

Keep it up, you're doing a great job.

I'm quite certain, in another thread somewhere, somehow, someone may have forgotten a word between two other words. You are needed, don't let us down.

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Old
11-24-2012, 11:30 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by sw1tch View Post
Johnson

How is this even a question? Not even remotely close to a tough choice
Try giving it two years.

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11-25-2012, 12:03 AM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Wingsfan2965 View Post
Try giving it two years.
Same can be said for EJ.

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11-25-2012, 10:04 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by FoppaForsberg View Post
Same can be said for EJ.
You're talking about a guy who's been highly exposed to the general hockey world vs two that haven't. I'm not saying Johnson won't improve, but many more people have seen him play and are aware of him.

But just to clarify where Nyquist is at right now, there's four players ahead of him in scoring right now.

Schultz, Schenn, RNH, Eberle.

That's not exactly bad company to be in.

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11-25-2012, 10:51 AM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wingsfan2965 View Post
You're talking about a guy who's been highly exposed to the general hockey world vs two that haven't. I'm not saying Johnson won't improve, but many more people have seen him play and are aware of him.

But just to clarify where Nyquist is at right now, there's four players ahead of him in scoring right now.

Schultz, Schenn, RNH, Eberle.

That's not exactly bad company to be in.
I'm continually getting the impression that many people have not seen EJ play.

Also, if Nyquist is in good company, what does that say for the undrafted rookie TBL signed in Tyler Johnson? Seems to me that there's a future #1 center on their hands with the points he's putting up in the AHL. Cory Conacher? Future #1 LW. TJ Hensick, Jason Krog, Keith Aucoin... all future NHL studs.

Kevin Shattenkirk meanwhile had 0 points in the AHL, must be a bust?

AHL play is not a 1 for 1 correlation to NHL play... granted I expect Smith and Nyquist to be good players (in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Nyquist makes it as a complimentary top line winger but steady top 6 forward). But that does not make them worth more than our only top pairing defender whom we traded a young forward and young defender to get.

Value, what people want, etc... it is all relative. In this case the relative nature is that EJ would not be traded for a package of that nature. No matter how many Red Wings fans tell us differently, cite their high value as prospects or assure us they will be better than EJ because EJ is no better than Kyle Quincey.

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11-25-2012, 11:00 AM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
I'm continually getting the impression that many people have not seen EJ play.

Also, if Nyquist is in good company, what does that say for the undrafted rookie TBL signed in Tyler Johnson? Seems to me that there's a future #1 center on their hands with the points he's putting up in the AHL. Cory Conacher? Future #1 LW. TJ Hensick, Jason Krog, Keith Aucoin... all future NHL studs.

Kevin Shattenkirk meanwhile had 0 points in the AHL, must be a bust?

AHL play is not a 1 for 1 correlation to NHL play... granted I expect Smith and Nyquist to be good players (in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Nyquist makes it as a complimentary top line winger but steady top 6 forward). But that does not make them worth more than our only top pairing defender whom we traded a young forward and young defender to get.

Value, what people want, etc... it is all relative. In this case the relative nature is that EJ would not[/u] be traded for a package of that nature. No matter how many Red Wings fans tell us differently, cite their high value as prospects or assure us they will be better than EJ because EJ is no better than Kyle Quincey.
I have a feeling you've never watched Nyquist play...

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Old
11-25-2012, 11:24 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
I'm continually getting the impression that many people have not seen EJ play.
People saying he's a not a top pairing defender are foolish in my opinion, but there's no doubt that he's yet to live up to the hype.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
Also, if Nyquist is in good company, what does that say for the undrafted rookie TBL signed in Tyler Johnson? Seems to me that there's a future #1 center on their hands with the points he's putting up in the AHL. Cory Conacher? Future #1 LW. TJ Hensick, Jason Krog, Keith Aucoin... all future NHL studs.
Johnson's stats actually haven't been bad his whole career. Problem is it seems he's highly underweight, and if you've paid attention to Nyquist career, that was the major criticism of him for the last few years. (In fact it's the main reason he kept getting busted down to the 4th line in his stint last year)

Although I will point out that HF has him ranked as a 7.5D, which isn't much lower than Nyquist's 8.0C. Conacher's pretty much the exact same story. Though I don't know if either is as good as Nyquist defensively, haven't watched them play much.

Hensick is a 7.5B (I'd imagine some problem has held him back due to him being 26.

Krog is 37 and Aucoin is 34, lol.

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Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
Kevin Shattenkirk meanwhile had 0 points in the AHL, must be a bust?
Only played 13 AHL games (Had two points actually) and is a defenseman.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
AHL play is not a 1 for 1 correlation to NHL play... granted I expect Smith and Nyquist to be good players (in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Nyquist makes it as a complimentary top line winger but steady top 6 forward). But that does not make them worth more than our only top pairing defender whom we traded a young forward and young defender to get.

Value, what people want, etc... it is all relative. In this case the relative nature is that EJ would not be traded for a package of that nature. No matter how many Red Wings fans tell us differently, cite their high value as prospects or assure us they will be better than EJ because EJ is no better than Kyle Quincey.
I never said it was a bad trade now.

I said I think if you made that trade and then looked at it 10 years later, Colorado likely comes out the winner.

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Old
11-25-2012, 11:56 AM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 13 HockeyTown 40 View Post
I have a feeling you've never watched Nyquist play...
Only in the NHL.


As for the AHL guys I brought up, it was to prove a point that the score sheet doesn't determine NHL success. Krog, Aucioin, Hensick are all the prototypical AHL offensive juggernaut that can't translate that success to the NHL. Shattenkirk had 0 points the season he broke out into the NHL (his 2 points coming the season prior) so I was just working off of memory there.

HFBoards ratings mean nothing, so I really hope were using those to try to prove a point.

Furthermore, what I've mentioned but gets swept under the rug is that even if we did make that trade, where would Nyquist's NHL time come from? We've got Landeskog, Parenteau, Jones, Downie, McGinn and Hejduk next season for the top 9. We've got Olver and Sgarbossa in the AHL... maybe even Hishon one day.

Nyquist doesn't have the same chances for success with our team as he would Detroit. 10 years from now Smith and Nyquist might have carved out a solid NHL career, but one year from now EJ should still be a top pairing defender. Ask anyone without naming names, do you take a top pairing defender or two young players with top 6/top4 expectations that have a better than average shot at exceeding that mark?

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11-25-2012, 01:03 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Wingsfan2965 View Post
You're talking about a guy who's been highly exposed to the general hockey world vs two that haven't. I'm not saying Johnson won't improve, but many more people have seen him play and are aware of him.
See: Pronger, Chris

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11-25-2012, 01:46 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by FoppaForsberg View Post
Far too many people use stats on this site. Stats don't tell everything, Stats don't tell us that our coach is a moron who didn't even know how to use him properly. Exactly the point that you can't evaluate EJ is you've barely seen him play so how can you possibly give a legitimate assessment of him? You realize he's only 24? It takes defensemen a long time (usually) to figure their game out, I have no problem in waiting for him to turn into a solid top pairing guy, yes he probably won't live up to his draft hype, but that's perfectly fine because he still has plenty of room to grow and the fact that wings fans think a prospect and smith is worth him is hilarious. There really isn't a piece from Detroit that I would take for EJ, they're on the decline.
I don't care if he's only 24; he's not a top pairing defenceman until he gets put in the position of one (playing against top players in reasonably tough icetime). I'm not saying he won't be one in the future, but he isn't one right now, and as such I don't think it's a given that he should be considered an automatic choice over Smith (and Nyquist, who I'm told creates explosions everywhere).

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11-25-2012, 02:00 PM
  #63
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Johnson

Imagine

Edler-Johnson

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Old
11-25-2012, 02:44 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
If I'm following your logic here...

"Because player x played more than player y and player x was significantly worse than player z, player y is less than or equal to player z."
Not quite. It's "because top-four defenseman A is close to or slightly above top-four defenseman B in talent, and top-four defenseman C is slightly above top-four defenseman B in talent, top-four defenseman A is not worth top-four defenseman C plus top-six forward D and a pick."

Quote:
That's not even remotely logical in evaluating player talent. Quincey was, is and forever will be worse than Johnson. He was having a better offensive start to the season granted, but KQ seemed to always get a little luckier and work a little harder for himself at the beginning.

Erik Johnson is the type of defender that can beat you at any end of the ice when he's playing his game. Unfortunately the Avs do not have a partner which seems to mesh with his game and he's left cleaning up the mess every game. This makes his offensive game suffer, but really brings out the best in his defensive abilities.

Which are quite simply put, the type of game you'd ask of any #1 defender. Physically dominant, capable of stripping the puck away and carrying it out of the zone effortlessly. What impresses me the most is EJ's ability to skate through the neutral zone seemingly unscathed, it's very rare for such a big defender to be so mobile and smooth handling the puck.

Granted, he is one of my favorite players and was before he came to the Avs, but he's far from the 2nd pairing nonsense or the worse than Smid/Petry garbage people bring up. He's no worse than any team's #2 defender when someone has a more offensively gifted defender on the team (think of EJ as Seabrook in the presence of a Keith).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
I'm continually getting the impression that many people have not seen EJ play.

Also, if Nyquist is in good company, what does that say for the undrafted rookie TBL signed in Tyler Johnson? Seems to me that there's a future #1 center on their hands with the points he's putting up in the AHL. Cory Conacher? Future #1 LW. TJ Hensick, Jason Krog, Keith Aucoin... all future NHL studs.

Kevin Shattenkirk meanwhile had 0 points in the AHL, must be a bust?

AHL play is not a 1 for 1 correlation to NHL play... granted I expect Smith and Nyquist to be good players (in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Nyquist makes it as a complimentary top line winger but steady top 6 forward). But that does not make them worth more
To you. Nyquist+Smith+pick is worth tons more than just Johnson to a team like Detroit. If Detroit were to make this deal, Johnson comes in as the #4, and basically serves as a defensive player and PK guy only - Kronwall, White, Samuelsson, Quincey, and Kindl all would slot ahead of him for the PP.

Detroit isn't going to give up Nyquist and a pick to change Smith into Johnson. That simply isn't a good move. It's actually a quite bad one.

Quote:
than our only top pairing defender whom we traded a young forward and young defender to get.

Value, what people want, etc... it is all relative. In this case the relative nature is that EJ would not be traded for a package of that nature. No matter how many Red Wings fans tell us differently, cite their high value as prospects or assure us they will be better than EJ because EJ is no better than Kyle Quincey.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
Ask anyone without naming names, do you take a top pairing defender or two young players with top 6/top4 expectations that have a better than average shot at exceeding that mark?
A fair assessment would be that Johnson is a 2/3 who is primarily a defensive defenseman. Smith is, right now, a top-four offensive defenseman. Nyquist has so far in limited NHL play shown that he is a top-six forward. He certainly will be a legit top-sixer within two years if he isn't there already. So consider the question as such:

Borderline top-pairing defensive defenseman

vs

Top-four offensive defenseman
Top-six two-way forward
Draft pick

While having a solid defensive defenseman is nice, Johnson isn't as good defensively as Ericsson. And Ericsson scored points at a comparable rate per minute at ES last year, while playing third-pair with Kindl or Quincey all year. And I wouldn't trade Smith/Nyquist/pick for Ericsson (even if he were 24) if I were the Wings. So why would I do it for Johnson?

The deal simply doesn't make sense. It fills one need (another defensive defenseman) while cutting a hole in the top-six and dropping a pick. It makes the Wings a worse team.

I can see the Avs preferring Johnson to the Wings package, as Johnson is likely to be relegated to the second PP unit whenever next season is; he was fourth in ESP, and fifth in ESP/60 among defensemen who finished the season as Avs, sixth in ESP/60 if you include Quincey. He'll likely move to a more defensive role while Wilson, Elliott, and O'Brien take on the offensive reins. The Avs have far less need for Smith than Johnson. And they have many good young forwards, so Nyquist is of less value than he is to the Wings.

But again, it's not a vacuum situation. Value-wise, the Detroit package is worth more in a vacuum because any value Johnson might have over Smith from actual NHL time is more than negated by Nyquist. If you remove Nyquist altogether, it's probably much closer.

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Old
11-25-2012, 02:46 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
Very surprised by the results.

2nd pairing D vs Top 6 forward + top 4 D + 3rd

Easy choice
I think Johnson is a top pairing guy. Maybe not a great #1, but certainly a good #2. Nyquist and Smith have a combined 32 games in the league, so I think it's a but early to cal them a top 6 forward and top 4 defender.

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11-25-2012, 02:47 PM
  #66
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Johnson is overrated. He will never become a #1 dman.

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11-25-2012, 03:37 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by YakuBOT View Post
Johnson is overrated. He will never become a #1 dman.
Already is....

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11-25-2012, 04:05 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Rockies94 View Post
Already is....
You consider Johnson one of the 30 best defensemen in the league?

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11-25-2012, 04:30 PM
  #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
While having a solid defensive defenseman is nice, Johnson isn't as good defensively as Ericsson.

But again, it's not a vacuum situation. Value-wise, the Detroit package is worth more in a vacuum because any value Johnson might have over Smith from actual NHL time is more than negated by Nyquist. If you remove Nyquist altogether, it's probably much closer.
Most of the post resolves to a difference of opinion and team needs. But what I left was what was primarily important to point out.

Johnson is in no way worse defensively than Ericsson and I'd really like to know in what world it makes sense to even joke about Ericsson being better.

EJ is no worse than a #2, people need to understand we're talking about a guy that played through last season with chronic back problems that limited his TOI. He was also the only guy that knew how to play offensively and had the skill to do so on a regular basis, thus leaving our Hejda/O'Byrne combo do the defensive heavy-lifting. Just like O'Reilly not being used as our #1 PKer despite he and Landeskog being better in that role than McClement.

So if Detroit is better off with Smith + Nyquist + 3rd over EJ, then that would beg the question if Elliott/Barrie (whichever you deem better, both are within Smith's realm potential-wise) + Sgarbossa/Hishon (both being within Nyquist's range potentially, would have to assume Hishon never got concussed by McNabb of course) + a 2nd/3rd would make Detroit a better team when removing Kronwall.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
You consider Johnson one of the 30 best defensemen in the league?
Yes and so do many more fans that have watched him play more than a handful of times over the past couple seasons.

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11-25-2012, 06:27 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
You consider Johnson one of the 30 best defensemen in the league?
HF does so...

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11-25-2012, 11:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
Most of the post resolves to a difference of opinion and team needs. But what I left was what was primarily important to point out.

Johnson is in no way worse defensively than Ericsson and I'd really like to know in what world it makes sense to even joke about Ericsson being better.
Let's look at some numbers.

Defenseman ESGAA PKGAA
Erik Johnson 2.69 5.76
Jonathan Ericsson 1.67 3.85

Hmm. Quite a difference there. And Ericsson played against the same level of competition.

Quote:
EJ is no worse than a #2, people need to understand we're talking about a guy that played through last season with chronic back problems that limited his TOI. He was also the only guy that knew how to play offensively and had the skill to do so on a regular basis, thus leaving our Hejda/O'Byrne combo do the defensive heavy-lifting.
Which makes it really interesting that "defensive defenseman" Hejda had 19 ESP to "#1 defenseman" Johnson's 14. If Hejda was outscoring Johnson, and being used as the shut-down guy... who is the #1?

Quote:
So if Detroit is better off with Smith + Nyquist + 3rd over EJ, then that would beg the question if Elliott/Barrie (whichever you deem better, both are within Smith's realm potential-wise) + Sgarbossa/Hishon (both being within Nyquist's range potentially, would have to assume Hishon never got concussed by McNabb of course) + a 2nd/3rd would make Detroit a better team when removing Kronwall.
Kronwall is much more important to Detroit than Johnson could ever be if he continues his current level of offensive play. But your example doesn't work well because Kronwall is much older, and plays a different style than Johnson. With Lidstrom gone, Kronwall is the core of Detroit's defense. I will again point to Ericsson as the comparable. I might trade Ericsson for that package. But if he were 24 I wouldn't. However, if the Wings had both Johnson and Ericsson (who is magically 24), I'd probably make the deal.

Quote:
Yes and so do many more fans that have watched him play more than a handful of times over the past couple seasons.
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Originally Posted by Rockies94 View Post
HF does so...
If you are referring to the poll done in August...

Alexander Edler was 12th, Dan Hamhuis was 24th. Hamhuis is easily the better player.

Zach Bogosian was third among Jets defensemen.

Forgive me if I don't take the word of HF polls as gold.


Last edited by pdd: 11-25-2012 at 11:44 PM.
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11-25-2012, 11:56 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
Only in the NHL.


As for the AHL guys I brought up, it was to prove a point that the score sheet doesn't determine NHL success. Krog, Aucioin, Hensick are all the prototypical AHL offensive juggernaut that can't translate that success to the NHL. Shattenkirk had 0 points the season he broke out into the NHL (his 2 points coming the season prior) so I was just working off of memory there.

HFBoards ratings mean nothing, so I really hope were using those to try to prove a point.

Furthermore, what I've mentioned but gets swept under the rug is that even if we did make that trade, where would Nyquist's NHL time come from? We've got Landeskog, Parenteau, Jones, Downie, McGinn and Hejduk next season for the top 9. We've got Olver and Sgarbossa in the AHL... maybe even Hishon one day.

Nyquist doesn't have the same chances for success with our team as he would Detroit. 10 years from now Smith and Nyquist might have carved out a solid NHL career, but one year from now EJ should still be a top pairing defender. Ask anyone without naming names, do you take a top pairing defender or two young players with top 6/top4 expectations that have a better than average shot at exceeding that mark?
Yeah man I totally get what you're saying, if I were in the Avs position I'd probably take EJ too, it makes way more sense for your team. My point is ironically what you guys have been saying about EJ, but regarding Nyquist and Smith. Like you guys have mentioned countless times about EJ, there's more to being a good player than stats.

If you watch Nyquist or Smith regularly, I think you'd be pretty sold on them having a very good chance at success in the NHL. To the disgrace of me and many other Wings' fans, KH has a philosophy of over-ripening prospects, including Smith and Nyquist, who are both ~23 and yet to play a full season with the Wings. So to categorize Smith and Nyquist with CHL players is pretty dumb because, although they're still considered prospects, they are safest bets to be at least solid NHL players just because of how far they are in their progression (disregarding guys like Yakupov, Huberdeau, etc).

But, don't be mistaken, I understand your point that you'd rather have EJ, its just all this talk (especially in the Trade Forum) about the possibility of Smith and Nyquist busting (which I'm not totally writing off) and how that completely derails their trade-value. In my opinion, the trade-value is definitely there, its just the circumstances that derail the trade. I just don't get what else someone could want for defenseman who's not even universally considered a #1 defenseman.

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11-26-2012, 12:22 AM
  #73
FoppaForsberg*
 
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lol at HF logic.

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11-26-2012, 12:37 AM
  #74
rt
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I'd take EJ and then trade him immediately for a center.

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11-30-2013, 10:47 AM
  #75
Bender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
The Wings combo AINEC. Smith will be better than Johnson. Nyquist and the 3rd are a bonus.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
Gonna bump this is a few years when Smith is a #1
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wingsfan2965 View Post
Try giving it two years.
Too soon? We've had the shortened season and now 25 games or so into this one. Is Brendan Smith still gonna be a top pairing? Is he well on his way? Just curious.

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