It skews towards Kaepernick because he gives the 49ers a better chance to win.
I take it you don't really understand what that statistic means and what the problem is with you using it. Considering that takes into account every play of this season and how Kaepernick was used before he was the starter, it definitely is skewed because of the small sample size of plays he ran as a backup that were successful because nobody was prepared for it.
Smith is 19-5 during the two seasons under Harbaugh ignoring St. Louis since he didn't finish it. That's a hell of a lot of wins and a hell of a lot more of a sample size than anything you can put out there with Kaepernick. Anybody that really wants to pass off that Kaepernick has proven that he gives them a better chance to win statistically after three starts has their head in the clouds.
The 49ers don't need a QB that will make rookie mistakes like Kaepernick has done and is partially why they lost to St. Louis. That kind of stuff will only continue this year as teams start to figure him out.
I take it you don't really understand what that statistic means and what the problem is with you using it. Considering that takes into account every play of this season and how Kaepernick was used before he was the starter, it definitely is skewed because of the small sample size of plays he ran as a backup that were successful because nobody was prepared for it.
Smith is 19-5 during the two seasons under Harbaugh ignoring St. Louis since he didn't finish it. That's a hell of a lot of wins and a hell of a lot more of a sample size than anything you can put out there with Kaepernick. Anybody that really wants to pass off that Kaepernick has proven that he gives them a better chance to win statistically after three starts has their head in the clouds.
The 49ers don't need a QB that will make rookie mistakes like Kaepernick has done and is partially why they lost to St. Louis. That kind of stuff will only continue this year as teams start to figure him out.
Kaepernick's game-by-game WPA before Smith's injury this season:
GB 0.02
DET 0.00
MIN 0.00
NYJ 0.06
BUF -0.08
NYG 0.04
SEA -0.02
ARZ 0.00
After Smith's injury:
STL 0.47
CHI 0.40
NO 0.30
STL 0.16
But but but but but but but it's skewed towards the games he barely played in!
Kaepernick's game-by-game WPA before Smith's injury this season:
GB 0.02
DET 0.00
MIN 0.00
NYJ 0.06
BUF -0.08
NYG 0.04
SEA -0.02
ARZ 0.00
After Smith's injury:
STL 0.47
CHI 0.40
NO 0.30
STL 0.16
But but but but but but but it's skewed towards the games he barely played in!
But but but but but but it's still a small sample size and your entire premise is based on three starts and assumptive thinking. If we're going to run this ridiculous train of thought, the fact is that he is already dwindling as a QB with a steady decline in WPA. Wonder what that could mean? Maybe teams are starting to figure him out and he's too inconsistent due to a lack of experience and maybe that will lead to more struggles as the season wears on and, if they're lucky to make the playoffs with this kid at QB, he will get snuffed against good teams.
Stop skewing the stats with your winning, Kaepernick.
That's really not the argument you want to go with if you're talking about Kaepernick and Smith. Kaepernick, again, didn't do much of anything in this game except for one play when the game was just about over.
Playing Kaepernick is a cool, fun game to play to keep the interest alive, and (at first) make teams guess, but if you want to win the super bowl, you gotta put Smith back in eventually. I don't know historical stats/occurrences, but I'm gonna say I don't think you can win it with a rookie QB. Especially when you might have to go up against a team like the Patriots, Broncos or Texans.
Playing Kaepernick is a cool, fun game to play to keep the interest alive, and (at first) make teams guess, but if you want to win the super bowl, you gotta put Smith back in eventually. I don't know historical stats/occurrences, but I'm gonna say I don't think you can win it with a rookie QB. Especially when you might have to go up against a team like the Patriots, Broncos or Texans.
In his 4 starts his pct has been 70%, 64% 66% and 78%. He has been the picture of consistency, and I won't even mention the additional running threat.
Harbaugh did the gutsy and right thing.
Are you watching the games or looking at a stat sheet? His inconsistency is in the mental part of the game, not the physical. He's made inexperienced/rookie decisions quite a few times and in key moments. He didn't do anything until the 50 yard run when the game was pretty much over. Saying he's the picture of consistency is pretty short-sighted. Harbaugh did not make the right choice and it's going to bite him in the ass.
He needs to get better on 3rd downs, the 49ers had a terrible percentage on Sunday against the Dolphins. This may or may not be on him depending on if the plays are coming in on time, but they had to burn three(may have been four) timeouts on Sunday because the play clock was running out. He needs to be more aware of that so the team isn't burning timeouts.
How does that refute my point? Regardless of who is at QB 36/37% isn't a good third down percentage. It's below average and the 49ers need to get better at it, especially Sunday night when controlling the clock and keeping the Patriots offense off the field will be key.
NE will be a big test for Kaepernick. Now, I don't think he will be entirely to blame if we lose, but they're a really good team and it will show us how he will do against a strong team now that teams are preparing for him better.
NE will be a big test for Kaepernick. Now, I don't think he will be entirely to blame if we lose, but they're a really good team and it will show us how he will do against a strong team now that teams are preparing for him better.
The offensive line is key. When Kaepernick has time to throw, he hits his target. These LB's and secondary can be thrown on if the OL gives him time.
Harbaugh did not make the right choice and it's going to bite him in the ass.
Not going to get into the QB debate (though honestly I prefer Smith), but what is your definition of "going to bite him"? Should probably clarify your guidelines if you haven't already. Otherwise, it'd be too easy for you to claim a victory if it's something like Super Bowl or bust.
How does that refute my point? Regardless of who is at QB 36/37% isn't a good third down percentage. It's below average and the 49ers need to get better at it, especially Sunday night when controlling the clock and keeping the Patriots offense off the field will be key.
While I do agree that the 49ers need to be better on 3rd Down (IMO, it is a big reason they lost to the Giants LY), I'm not sure how much that is on the QB (whomever it is) and more on the coaches play calling. I think the coaches are so confident in the defense, they have drilled it into the QB's head that it is better to punt it away than to take any risk.
Agree or disagree with the strategy, but I think it's a big reason why their % is so low (and I'm willing to bet they have one of, if not the lowest # of turnovers on 3rd down).
