At this point, assuming they use the same system that they used in the previous lockout, I would honestly prefer not having a season. Sacrificing one season for a potentially great player to add to the organization is a trade I'm willing to make.
Not me. If the season is played, the Blues have to be considered one of the top 4-6 clubs favored to win the Cup. I'd rather seem them take a legitimate shot at a championship, since this should be one of their best opportunities in franchise history to capture it's first Cup. We've seen how difficult it is to become a legitimate contender...and with injuries, contract situations, league-shutdowns , and a host of other factors involved there's no guarantee that a team's window of opportunity is going to be open for more than a couple of years at a time. Just look at teams like Chicago, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Edmonton, Ottawa & Anaheim...teams that were in the Finals in recent seasons and almost immediately fell back to the pack. We'd all like to think that the Blues future is bright...but all it takes is one other dominant team to come along (like the Wings of the 90's) and you're forever stuck trying to get over the hill.
It is correct that with each pick, if the Blues aren't selected, the chance of the next pick being the Blues is higher.
So, they have precisely a 4% chance of being first overall. Assuming they don't get the first pick, there are three scenarios for the second pick: 49 balls remain, 48 balls remain, or 47 balls remain. In each scenario, the Blues have just over a 4% chance to get the second pick.
However, if you're looking at their total chance of getting the second pick, it's actually under 4% because of their chance of getting the first pick.
The numbers I mentioned in the previous post are the chance that they'll be picked by a certain point, not their chances of having a particular pick, assuming they have not yet been selected.
As a matter of fact, a friend of mine recently cooked this up:
x axis represents picks and y axis represents the chance of selection. Red is 3 balls, blue is 2 balls, and black is 1 ball. Two balls, as with other things in life, are awesomely (technical term) better than one is.
But knowing the Blues' historical luck, they'll implement a new system.
Neat. So, theoretically, we should have about a 50/50 chance of landing in the top 12 or so. I may be somewhat of a betting man, but I really like those odds.
Not me. If the season is played, the Blues have to be considered one of the top 4-6 clubs favored to win the Cup. I'd rather seem them take a legitimate shot at a championship, since this should be one of their best opportunities in franchise history to capture it's first Cup. We've seen how difficult it is to become a legitimate contender...and with injuries, contract situations, league-shutdowns , and a host of other factors involved there's no guarantee that a team's window of opportunity is going to be open for more than a couple of years at a time. Just look at teams like Chicago, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Edmonton, Ottawa & Anaheim...teams that were in the Finals in recent seasons and almost immediately fell back to the pack. We'd all like to think that the Blues future is bright...but all it takes is one other dominant team to come along (like the Wings of the 90's) and you're forever stuck trying to get over the hill.
I understand what you're saying, but most of those teams you mentioned were not in the situation that the Blues are in right now. They were led by aging veterans(or in Chicago's case top of the cap limit superstars). The Blues are led by a 28 year old captain, and a 22 year old top 5 Dman. If my choices are no season and a top 5 pick, or a half season and a Cup, obviously I'll take the cup. However, if my choices are top 5 pick or half season with another 2nd round exit, I'll take the pick.
I understand what you're saying, but most of those teams you mentioned were not in the situation that the Blues are in right now. They were led by aging veterans(or in Chicago's case top of the cap limit superstars). The Blues are led by a 28 year old captain, and a 22 year old top 5 Dman. If my choices are no season and a top 5 pick, or a half season and a Cup, obviously I'll take the cup. However, if my choices are top 5 pick or half season with another 2nd round exit, I'll take the pick.
I'll take a 48 game (or whatever) season. I trust our team on the ice more than our chances on a lottery!
Plus, it would be important for the building of the team going forward; like whether Stewart has a future in St. Louis and whether to offer Lehterä a deal. No season puts us in a really awkward position.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluemandan
Interesting. I didn't realize it was/would be a snake draft.
I really never understood why it was a snake draft. It was like they wanted to pretend 1/60/61/120 is similar to picking 30/31/90/91. It should have been if you picked first in the first round, you picked last in every other round. Not that closes the gap, but it is at least slightly more fair.
At this point, assuming they use the same system that they used in the previous lockout, I would honestly prefer not having a season. Sacrificing one season for a potentially great player to add to the organization is a trade I'm willing to make.
I'm starting to lean this way as well. The longer this lockout carries on the less and less interest I have in this season. Here's the way I see it. Say they do resolve it, and we do get a 40-50 game season. And go even further and say the Blues do win the cup. How much would that really count for to Blues fans? We waited all these years just to win the cup during a lockout-shortened season? No thanks, I'd rather get a good draft pick and win the cup during a regular full 82 game season. I also agree with Stealth that the window can be narrow, but I really believe that window should be open for the Blues for the next several years.
I'm starting to lean this way as well. The longer this lockout carries on the less and less interest I have in this season. Here's the way I see it. Say they do resolve it, and we do get a 40-50 game season. And go even further and say the Blues do win the cup. How much would that really count for to Blues fans? We waited all these years just to win the cup during a lockout-shortened season? No thanks, I'd rather get a good draft pick and win the cup during a regular full 82 game season. I also agree with Stealth that the window can be narrow, but I really believe that window should be open for the Blues for the next several years.
This idea that people have that a Cup in a lockout shortened season is in some way less meaningful is nonsense. Just ask the Devils fans. The Cup is won in the playoffs, not the already bloated regular season.
This idea that people have that a Cup in a lockout shortened season is in some way less meaningful is nonsense. Just ask the Devils fans. The Cup is won in the playoffs, not the already bloated regular season.
Eh, I'd rather not be labeled the "lockout champs". To me, it would be much less meaningful. It would be different if we had already won a cup, but I wouldn't want that to be the first way we win it. That's not to say I wouldn't be happy if we did win it that way because I would, but I still don't think it would be the same. JMHO
Eh, I'd rather not be labeled the "lockout champs". To me, it would be much less meaningful. It would be different if we had already won a cup, but I wouldn't want that to be the first way we win it. That's not to say I wouldn't be happy if we did win it that way because I would, but I still don't think it would be the same. JMHO
They could put almost anything in front of Stanley Cup Champions and it would matter naught to me.
I want...nay, need a Chalice-raised parade down Market before I join the choir invisible. I would suspect Sabres fans and Canuck fans have similar statements.
The idea of a diminished championship due to the lockout is crazy. The only people who have ever said that are jealous. Nobody says or thinks that about the last shortened season. You still have to go up against the best teams in the league and get sixteen wins. Everyone is on an even playing field. The Cup is the damn Cup.
The idea of a diminished championship due to the lockout is crazy. The only people who have ever said that are jealous. Nobody says or thinks that about the last shortened season. You still have to go up against the best teams in the league and get sixteen wins. Everyone is on an even playing field. The Cup is the damn Cup.
Yup.
The way I look at it is the regular season is merely to make money and rank the teams. The playoffs are like the Championship Tournament for Lord Stanley's Cup. As long as the format for the playoffs/'tournament' is the same (four rounds, best of seven, 2-2-1-1-1 scheduling), I can't understand why anyone would think it counts as less.
I guess some of us just value the regular season games a little more than others. I'll admit some of my comments are probably due partly of me giving up on this season, but I still see a big difference between basing a championship on half as many games. If it was like at least 2/3 of a season then my opinion would probably change.
I guess some of us just value the regular season games a little more than others. I'll admit some of my comments are probably due partly of me giving up on this season, but I still see a big difference between basing a championship on half as many games. If it was like at least 2/3 of a season then my opinion would probably change.
I'd be happy with a Cup after a 1-game regular season.
I'd be happy with a Cup after a 1-game regular season.
That would be crazy. Assuming the 15 teams that win make it...how would the final team be determined? A two-man sack race on consecutive Sundays? Or how about maybe a Royal Rumble style wrestling match between the losing teams mascots?
That would be crazy. Assuming the 15 teams that win make it...how would the final team be determined? A two-man sack race on consecutive Sundays? Or how about maybe a Royal Rumble style wrestling match between the losing teams mascots?
Surely a couple of those losing teams would have made it to OT or SO...the existing tie-breaker formats would be fine, right down to Goals For or who's dad can beat up who's.
I guess some of us just value the regular season games a little more than others. I'll admit some of my comments are probably due partly of me giving up on this season, but I still see a big difference between basing a championship on half as many games. If it was like at least 2/3 of a season then my opinion would probably change.
They don't give championships for regular season performance.
IMO, all that really matters is that the regular season is long enough to give the contenders a legitimate chance to seperate themselves from the pretenders so that the teams that make the playoffs are (for the most part) actually the ones that "should" be there.
IMO, all that really matters is that the regular season is long enough to give the contenders a legitimate chance to seperate themselves from the pretenders so that the teams that make the playoffs are (for the most part) actually the ones that "should" be there.
I agree. Personally, I just don't feel like 40 something games is enough to determine that. Like I said, 2/3 of a season(60+ games)and I would probably change my mind. I also understand why a lot of people would think differently. It's really just a matter of preference. Again, I still would be plenty happy if the Blues won the Cup(no matter what the circumstance).
, and a host of other factors involved there's no guarantee that a team's window of opportunity is going to be open for more than a couple of years at a time. Just look at teams like Chicago, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Edmonton, Ottawa & Anaheim...teams that were in the Finals in recent seasons and almost immediately fell back to the pack. We'd all like to think that the Blues future is bright...but all it takes is one other dominant team to come along (like the Wings of the 90's) and you're forever stuck trying to get over the hill.
