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One possible view of the future for the Oilers...

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Old
02-13-2013, 08:57 PM
  #1
nexttothemoon
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One possible view of the future for the Oilers...

Quebec finished last overall and drafted #1 three times in a row... 1989, 1990 and 1991.

They were 2nd last in the NHL in 1992.

They made a quantum leap all the way up to #4 in the NHL in 1993 and went out in the 1st round of the playoffs.

They regressed and slipped back to 19th out of 26 teams in 1994 and missed the playoffs.

They rebounded strongly in 1995 all the way up to #2 in the NHL and again went out in the 1st round of the playoffs.

They again finished #2 overall in the NHL in 1996 (in Colorado at this point) and this time went all the way... winning the Cup.

We all know the story after that point, Colorado were perenially strong contenders at that point finishing #1, #7, #4, #9, #1 in the NHL over the next five years and winning the Cup again in 2001.

Now I'm not saying the Oilers are going to follow that same exact path as those Quebec/Colorado teams did but it's certainly a possible guideline as to what to expect in terms of a timeline to becoming a contender again.



Following that template, the Oilers would finish near last again this season before taking their quantum leap up in the standings in the 2013/14 season where they'd make the playoffs with a 1st round exit... followed by regression yet again in the 2014/15 season where they'd miss the playoffs.

Then another strong rebound year in the 2015/16 season with another 1st round playoff exit.

Then the penultimate prize... the Stanley Cup in the 2016/17 season.

The years to follow (2017/18, 2018/19, 2019/20, 2020/21, 2021/22) would be years where the Oilers would be perennial contenders, easily making the playoffs each year and winning another Cup along the way.


Is that all a fantasy or a possible window on the future for the current Oilers? No one can know for certain... but since Quebec/Colorado is the only other team to ever have 3 straight #1 picks... we can't really say that scenario up above is impossible... because it DID happen for them and history could repeat although of course not exactly like in the past.

Many will say that Quebec/Colorado scenario is a best case view likely to never be repeated (Mega Lindros deal... franchise players like Sakic, Roy, Forsberg etc) but I still think it's a somewhat realistic template to ground ourselves in terms of the timeframe involved.

To review...

It took the Quebec/Colorado franchise 5 seasons to win the Cup after their last #1 pick. There were plenty of ups and downs along the way as well... not a straight up trajectory but improvements mixed with regression seasons. Multiple 1st round playoffs exits occurred before the ultimate prize was achieved. Many years of strong contending years followed.

I think this is a good "best case" scenario for the Oilers... can they make the playoffs this year? I personally was very optimistic in thinking that they could... but realistically it may be as soon as next year... and then they could very well regress and take 3 more seasons after next year to become truly strong Cup contenders.

Worst case scenario is that they never become a playoff team or Cup contenders and they spin their wheels endlessly in a perpetual limboland like the Oilers have been in over the past 2 decades.

I prefer to believe in the "best case" scenario.

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02-13-2013, 09:38 PM
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Good thing the internet was still in its' infancy in '96. Can you imagine what HFB would have been like when the AV's won the cup. Three #1 picks and then getting Roy, this place would be insane.

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02-13-2013, 10:03 PM
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Stanley number six in the new barn. I would be okay with this.

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02-13-2013, 10:09 PM
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Might have to move to Seattle first.


edit: Also, they ended up trading one of those picks.

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02-13-2013, 10:12 PM
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I am the Liquor
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I thought you said they were making the playoffs this season?

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02-13-2013, 11:08 PM
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The item of interest should be that the number one picks were used as assets for improvement ultimately. The team didn't base the success of the franchise around keeping them.

Sundin was traded for Clark (dumb).
Nolan was traded for Ozolinsh (great move from 96-00).
Lindros was traded for Forsberg and friends (solidified the dynasty).

Sakic was a mid first round pick, Foote was a late pick, Roy came in a trade.

Hejduk, Kamensky, Skoula, Tanguay, Drury, Klemm, Miller, Yelle were all draft picks.

Lemieux, Blake, Bourque were picked up in their primes.

All the Quebec template should show us is the value of savvy/lucky management more than the value scorched earth approach, unfortunately.

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02-13-2013, 11:19 PM
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The problem with expecting a cup is that there's so much parity now. For those stacked teams, the real challenges started with the playoffs. We could have a top team for 5 seasons and not win a cup.

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02-13-2013, 11:21 PM
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nexttothemoon
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
I thought you said they were making the playoffs this season?
I still am optimistic that they will. I'll stick to my ridiculously optimistic prediction of 5th in the West this season but I was just looking at that Quebec/Colorado blueprint as a possible roadmap of a "best case" scenario that could occur in future seasons.

Oilers making the playoffs this season would be even faster than that Quebec franchise did it... still not impossible but obviously with how the Oilers have played over the first quarter it's hard to envision that this is the year they'll take that "quantum leap"... I think it's coming but quite possibly not yet.

I made that prediction of 5th before the season started with a mixture of hope and optimism but after watching them so far this season it's obviously not going as well for the Oilers as I hoped it would. That could still change.

Ironically I feel the Oilers had their best game of the year last night... actually makes me more optimistic going forward even though it was a 4-1 loss.


Overall though I just made this thread to show that even if they are truly on a path towards contending, there will be times where it certainly won't look like it... plenty of ups and downs and it very likely won't be a steady trajectory upwards.

We'll likely have a lot of discussions about whether or not we really are getting closer over the next 3-4 years as it's not going to be readily apparent they'll reach the promised land when they are in the midst of the turbulent peaks and valleys that are very likely to come.


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02-13-2013, 11:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sethis View Post
The item of interest should be that the number one picks were used as assets for improvement ultimately. The team didn't base the success of the franchise around keeping them.

Sundin was traded for Clark (dumb).
Nolan was traded for Ozolinsh (great move from 96-00).
Lindros was traded for Forsberg and friends (solidified the dynasty).

Sakic was a mid first round pick, Foote was a late pick, Roy came in a trade.

Hejduk, Kamensky, Skoula, Tanguay, Drury, Klemm, Miller, Yelle were all draft picks.

Lemieux, Blake, Bourque were picked up in their primes.

All the Quebec template should show us is the value of savvy/lucky management more than the value scorched earth approach, unfortunately.
It's an interesting concept.

Everyone generally thinks that the "big 5" are untouchable but what if the Oilers actually did trade away Eberle, Hall, RNH, Yakupov and Schultz.

What would be the collective return from other teams for dealing all 5 of those extremely highly valued players away in various deals?

I know it's a radical thought (and not why I started the thread)... but what if the Oil actually traded away any and all of those golden assets. Just how good of a team could they assemble almost instantly in return for those "future" stars.

It's an interesting question as an argument could be made that their values are all extremely high now... and they may have a higher value placed on their "potential" currently than will ever be actualized in terms of production.

In essence can (and should) the team "cash in" on that future value by trading those assets away now and gaining current assets that make the team potentially immediately competitive for years to come... rather than waiting for those assets to "ripen" naturally... which likely will take several years (with no guarantee that they'll all turn out as well as we all anticipate they will).

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02-14-2013, 12:06 AM
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dnicks17
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The trading concept is flawed when you consider the difference between what Lindros got and what one of our 1st overalls would get.

Lindros got them:

-Patrick Roy
-Peter Forsberg
-Adam Deadmarsh(who eventually turned into Rob Blake)
-Keith Jones(who eventually turned into Alex Tanguay)
-Mike Ricci


edit: Imagine the below without the above.

Sundin got them:

-Claude Lemieux
-Sylvain Lefebvre
-Robyn Regehr(who eventually turned into 30 games of Theo Fleury)


Nolan got them:

-Sandis Ozilinsh


Last edited by dnicks17: 02-14-2013 at 12:19 AM.
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02-14-2013, 12:18 AM
  #11
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Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
The trading concept is flawed when you consider the difference between what Lindros got and what one of our 1st overalls would get.

Lindros got them:

-Patrick Roy
-Peter Forsberg
-Adam Deadmarsh(who eventually turned into Rob Blake)
-Claude Lemieux
-Keith Jones(who eventually turned into Alex Tanguay)
-Mike Ricci
Lindros had nothing to do with Roy. I agree though, tought to compare, that was also pre cap era, the Avs were able to run up huge salaries and get and keep all kinds of stars.

Any way, I just want to see the Oilers compete for the playoffs. I don't want to see us just throw in the towel, thsi team needs to improve. I don't expect us to go from last to first, but, we should near the playoffs.

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02-14-2013, 12:21 AM
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dnicks17
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Originally Posted by okgooil View Post
Lindros had nothing to do with Roy. I agree though, tought to compare, that was also pre cap era, the Avs were able to run up huge salaries and get and keep all kinds of stars.

Any way, I just want to see the Oilers compete for the playoffs. I don't want to see us just throw in the towel, thsi team needs to improve. I don't expect us to go from last to first, but, we should near the playoffs.
The Nordiques got Jocelyn Thibault from the pick in the Lindros deal.

At the time, he was the major piece going to the Habs in the Roy trade.

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02-14-2013, 12:35 AM
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Good thing the internet was still in its' infancy in '96. Can you imagine what HFB would have been like when the AV's won the cup. Three #1 picks and then getting Roy, this place would be insane.
I have been around since about 99/00 and there are still one or two guys around from the BB days--the place was a lot different back in the days

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02-14-2013, 01:14 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
The trading concept is flawed when you consider the difference between what Lindros got and what one of our 1st overalls would get.

Lindros got them:

-Patrick Roy
-Peter Forsberg
-Adam Deadmarsh(who eventually turned into Rob Blake)
-Keith Jones(who eventually turned into Alex Tanguay)
-Mike Ricci


edit: Imagine the below without the above.

Sundin got them:

-Claude Lemieux
-Sylvain Lefebvre
-Robyn Regehr(who eventually turned into 30 games of Theo Fleury)


Nolan got them:

-Sandis Ozilinsh
I still think the Avs would of won a cup with Lindros Sakic Sundin And Nolan maybe even more than 2.

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02-14-2013, 02:27 AM
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Like I said, it's one more year of a tank. Nothing I've seen this year so far or the summer leading up to this has shown me any different. They'll be perfectly happy with their pick of Seth Jones or Nathan McKinnon this summer, and then I think they attack aggressively.

Personally, I would have tried better to build a competitive team this year. But I'm not running the team.

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02-14-2013, 02:55 AM
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If the intent was to tank this year then I guess Tambo screwed that up too.

This is a team that will finish anywhere from 7th to 12th in the conference, my guess is 9/10. After finishing 30th, 30th and 29th I would consider that a good next step of the rebuild.

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02-14-2013, 03:35 AM
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Originally Posted by shoop View Post
If the intent was to tank this year then I guess Tambo screwed that up too.

This is a team that will finish anywhere from 7th to 12th in the conference, my guess is 9/10. After finishing 30th, 30th and 29th I would consider that a good next step of the rebuild.
I would hate for us to finish 9th!

Hey, if were not making playoffs i don't care where we finish, as long as we have a decent pick and its not 29th or 30th; so we can still say were on the way to the top.

All though a #1 pick would be nice...

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02-14-2013, 04:48 AM
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This path probably takes place

I think this is the path oilers will walk.

We still need to add some pieces. 5 pieces IMO. Pieces 2-5 can be found within organization and through draft if we are lucky

1. I hope that we can trade for Ryan O'Reilly and sign him long term 5-8 years. It would be awesome to have RNH, Gagner and O'Reilly as top3 centers.

2.We need another offensive defenseman to play in the top4 N.Schultz will get ticket to out after next season or at least he will be paly in the reduced role as a number5 guy (with reduced salary too). Smid or Petry can play with J.Schultz in the top pairing. Marincin and Gernat can be options. Klefbom is more likely shut down type of guy.

3. We need to find a very good back up goalie to play behind DD. Some one who can play even 35 games if needed. I am not sold on Roy but time will tell

4. Power forward with size to play second line left wing position. Hartikainen or Pääjärvi can take the spot but I not sold on them yet

5. Puglist who take regular shift and can be inserted to any line occasionnally. Moroz seems to be possibility.

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02-14-2013, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Oiltankjob 4 93 64 View Post
I still think the Avs would of won a cup with Lindros Sakic Sundin And Nolan maybe even more than 2.
Maybe but it's hard to argue that adding 6 decent players, two first round draft picks, and 15 million dollars didnt help. They got a lot of depth and flexibility out of that deal.

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02-14-2013, 11:44 AM
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It's an interesting concept.

Everyone generally thinks that the "big 5" are untouchable but what if the Oilers actually did trade away Eberle, Hall, RNH, Yakupov and Schultz.

What would be the collective return from other teams for dealing all 5 of those extremely highly valued players away in various deals?

In essence can (and should) the team "cash in" on that future value by trading those assets away now and gaining current assets that make the team potentially immediately competitive for years to come... rather than waiting for those assets to "ripen" naturally... which likely will take several years (with no guarantee that they'll all turn out as well as we all anticipate they will).
I don't see them trading them all, but I do see them trading 1 or 2 of the big 5. Schultz and RNH are probably untouchable because of the position they play, making them difficult to replace. Hall and Eberle both have intangibles. We don't know enough about Yak yet. But I do see 1 of the wingers being moved to fill a big hole.

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02-14-2013, 12:06 PM
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The Nordiques got Jocelyn Thibault from the pick in the Lindros deal.

At the time, he was the major piece going to the Habs in the Roy trade.
That's a ridiculous notion though that Lindros got them Patrick Roy. It'd be like saying Barry Pedersen got Boston Milan Lucic along with Cam Neely by string of hypotheticals.

Montreal never trades Roy to the Nordiques, would never happen. The Avalanche were as far away as they could get, and this was years after the Lindros trade.

The true person to thank for the Avalanche winning the Cup is Sergei Federov for scoring and putting the nail in Roy's Habs coffin. Without that, they never win the Cup.

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02-14-2013, 01:20 PM
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That's a ridiculous notion though that Lindros got them Patrick Roy. It'd be like saying Barry Pedersen got Boston Milan Lucic along with Cam Neely by string of hypotheticals.

Montreal never trades Roy to the Nordiques, would never happen. The Avalanche were as far away as they could get, and this was years after the Lindros trade.

The true person to thank for the Avalanche winning the Cup is Sergei Federov for scoring and putting the nail in Roy's Habs coffin. Without that, they never win the Cup.
I dont think you can put winning the cup on just one specific player. They got 6 good players and 2 first round draft picks plus 15 million cash for Lindros no way you can say that wasnt huge. They filled holes and got depth they could use to trade to fill other holes in that deal and that's something that we just wont get in a deal for any of our players. Not one of them is expected to be the next Gretzky or Mario like Lindros was.

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02-14-2013, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Broilers View Post
I think this is the path oilers will walk.

We still need to add some pieces. 5 pieces IMO. Pieces 2-5 can be found within organization and through draft if we are lucky

1. I hope that we can trade for Ryan O'Reilly and sign him long term 5-8 years. It would be awesome to have RNH, Gagner and O'Reilly as top3 centers.

2.We need another offensive defenseman to play in the top4 N.Schultz will get ticket to out after next season or at least he will be paly in the reduced role as a number5 guy (with reduced salary too). Smid or Petry can play with J.Schultz in the top pairing. Marincin and Gernat can be options. Klefbom is more likely shut down type of guy.

3. We need to find a very good back up goalie to play behind DD. Some one who can play even 35 games if needed. I am not sold on Roy but time will tell

4. Power forward with size to play second line left wing position. Hartikainen or Pääjärvi can take the spot but I not sold on them yet

5. Puglist who take regular shift and can be inserted to any line occasionnally. Moroz seems to be possibility.

No way would they be keeping all of RNH, Gagner and ROR with a salary cap in place. One of them would be on the move for another piece, guaranteed.

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02-14-2013, 01:46 PM
  #24
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Originally Posted by nexttothemoon View Post
Quebec finished last overall and drafted #1 three times in a row... 1989, 1990 and 1991.

Is that all a fantasy or a possible window on the future for the current Oilers? No one can know for certain... but since Quebec/Colorado is the only other team to ever have 3 straight #1 picks... we can't really say that scenario up above is impossible... because it DID happen for them and history could repeat although of course not exactly like in the past.

Many will say that Quebec/Colorado scenario is a best case view likely to never be repeated (Mega Lindros deal... franchise players like Sakic, Roy, Forsberg etc) but I still think it's a somewhat realistic template to ground ourselves in terms of the timeframe involved.

To review...

It took the Quebec/Colorado franchise 5 seasons to win the Cup after their last #1 pick. There were plenty of ups and downs along the way as well... not a straight up trajectory but improvements mixed with regression seasons. Multiple 1st round playoffs exits occurred before the ultimate prize was achieved. Many years of strong contending years followed.

I prefer to believe in the "best case" scenario.

Total fantasy.

Look - let me ask this question - why is everyone comparing the Oilers to teams like Pittsburgh, and Colorado?

Because they are Cup winners and rebuild their teams by drafting high.

The problem is this: not every team that goes through a rebuild becomes Quebec or Pittsburgh. Not every #1 draft pick becomes a Hall of Famer.

John Tavares was drafted #1 in 2009 - is he going to be a Hall of Famer? Heavens knows that the Islanders has been rebuilding through the draft for ever... are they going to be the next Quebec/Colorado dynasty? Sure doesn't look like it now.

Eric Johnson was the #1 draft pick in 2006. Is he going to be Hall of Famer and lead the new Colorado Avalanche to the Cup?

The old Quebec Nordiques / Colorado became Cup contenders not just because they drafted high, and went through a rebuild, but they drafted very well. And traded for players extremely well too. Let's not forget that.

They had the benefit of two Hall of Fame Centres - Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg as well as Hall of fame goaltender Patric Roy. Roy and Forsberg were acquired through trades.

Can anyone say the same of our lineup - how many Hall of Famers do we have on this team?

The fact is that there is no template. Drafting high is no guarantee of becoming the next dynasty.

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02-14-2013, 01:47 PM
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Like I said, it's one more year of a tank. Nothing I've seen this year so far or the summer leading up to this has shown me any different. They'll be perfectly happy with their pick of Seth Jones or Nathan McKinnon this summer, and then I think they attack aggressively.

Personally, I would have tried better to build a competitive team this year. But I'm not running the team.
We're 12 games in with no training camp in a 48 game schedule and right in the mix. I think I'll wait a tad more before writing off the season.

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