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Offseason Madness the 8th: Josh Johnson Edition.

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Old
12-01-2012, 11:18 PM
  #301
dredeye
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Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
Question for you guys? Do you think the Jays have the salary room and pitching prospects to trade for Justin Morneau? Last year 15 million dollars. If you can move Lind and Buck for prospects could be interesting
Morneau has no value and they'd be lucky to get Lind straight up for him. Forget about pitching prospects.

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12-01-2012, 11:26 PM
  #302
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Anyone know where to get a pitchers average velocity for the 2012 season? I cant seem to find anything anywhere.

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12-01-2012, 11:44 PM
  #303
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Anyone know where to get a pitchers average velocity for the 2012 season? I cant seem to find anything anywhere.

Fangraphs.com

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12-01-2012, 11:47 PM
  #304
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I'd rather insert Rasmus and Keep Gose.
I wonder if something could be put together to get Dickey and Ike Davis.
Reyes, Cabrera at the top of the order and Bonifacio batting 9th provide great speed and get on base for us. I prefer Rasmus and his ability to drive in runs over Gose and his speed... Gose could use at least another half year of hitting in AAA IMO.

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12-01-2012, 11:55 PM
  #305
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Originally Posted by Jozay View Post
Anyone know where to get a pitchers average velocity for the 2012 season? I cant seem to find anything anywhere.
As an example: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.as...ion=P&pitch=FA

Select the Pitch/fx tab, then Velocity Charts.

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12-02-2012, 04:24 AM
  #306
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A couple thoughts.

I think JPA is undervalued here. He's going to be going into his third season in the big leagues. I actually think he's poised for a strong season. I'm certainly not eager to see him go, especially if the best we're going to get back for a package deal involving him and a prospect is Jon Niese. I'd like to see the Jays target Edwin Jackson alternatively. I think we're going to want Arencibia around at least for this next season. Anthopolous won't start the year with only D'Arnaud and Buck. If I'm him, I want two proven catchers. Let's not forget that injuries happen.

Here's the thing. I'm not sold on our rotation yet. Buehrle's old. He might not be able to cut it in the AL East. Johnson could go down with a season ender at the drop of the hat, and we be left with what we had last year. That said, I don't think trading JPA is the answer to this. A number 3 guy isn't going to keep our playoff hopes alive if we get hit with as many injuries as last year. Not that I'd mind adding one, but at the expense of valuable and useful assets it doesn't seem worth it to me. A free agent signing might be the safest route.

Finally, I hope we stay away from Mark Reynolds. If people are complaining about Lind and/or JPA's strikeout rates, just wait for Reynolds. Yeah he might hit 35 dingers at Rogers Centre, but I just don't like him as a fit with us. He's a one trick pony. That said, I suppose, best case scenario, he'd be a useful complimentary starter. It's not like he's mediocre at everything. He's an excellent power hitter.

/rant

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12-02-2012, 04:28 AM
  #307
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One more thing. If we're going to go for one of the "big name" non-tendered players, make it Brian Wilson. Who wouldn't love to see that beard jogging out to the mound in late innings of a close game? His personality can only add to what we've got going on here. San Francisco won two championships with the guy. Aside from that, he became a sensation across the league. He's had injury issues this past year, but you can't argue with his numbers. I don't think his contract will be bloated because of this, and for that reason, I think it would be a potentially high-reward signing. Worst case scenario, we sign him for 2 years/10 million and he pitches to a 4+ ERA. We use him sparingly, or he goes down with injuries. Best case scenario, he all but dominates the competition for a closing role at the same contract and brings some spunk with it.


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12-02-2012, 06:01 AM
  #308
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Originally Posted by Bozak View Post
yes but that's pending Johnson goes back to 2010 form, Romero goes back to 2011 form, and Morrow stays healthy. All COULD seriously happen but there are defiantly question marks and far from the best in the league IMO.

edit: I don't mean to be "that" guy, i'm just stating that there are some question marks.

Price > Johnson
Shields > Romero
Moore = Morrow
Hellickson > Niese
Niemman < Buerhle
Johnson was stellar in 2011 before he got hurt and last year he was solid after the first 6 starts or so. His ERA was 6.60 after 6 starts but after that he was solid. Romero will likely go back to form, too, since it was only one season.

I'd question whether they can stay healthy more than anything.

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12-02-2012, 06:13 AM
  #309
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Originally Posted by LloydChristmas View Post
One more thing. If we're going to go for one of the "big name" non-tendered players, make it Brian Wilson. Who wouldn't love to see that beard jogging out to the mound in late innings of a close game? His personality can only add to what we've got going on here. San Francisco won two championships with the guy. Aside from that, he became a sensation across the league. He's had injury issues this past year, but you can't argue with his numbers. I don't think his contract will be bloated because of this, and for that reason, I think it would be a potentially high-reward signing. Worst case scenario, we sign him for 2 years/10 million and he pitches to a 4+ ERA. We use him sparingly, or he goes down with injuries. Best case scenario, he all but dominates the competition for a closing role at the same contract and brings some spunk with it.
Im not sure we really need Wilson TBH, though. We have Janssen and Santos and then there are other underrated arms like Delabar and Lincoln.

I like Wilson who has the experience but our BP depth is pretty good. Especially if we add another starter, we'd also have Happ in the Pen.

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12-02-2012, 06:15 AM
  #310
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If anything, I get the impression that AA has overrated Arencibia. Not everyone values cost control the way he does, and that's pretty much JP's only selling point. Getting rid of him and going with Buck into the season would be a lateral move at worst, and probably an improvement; Buck at least has a good offensive season under his belt. JP's bat is done developing, guys with 5% walk rates and 30% K rates don't just breakout, especially when their "power" comes from cheap upper cut swings that have gaping holes every except down and in.

Niese for a B prospect and Arencibia would be a heist, and the Mets will never do it.
Niese for Rasmus... now that would be more intriguing

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12-02-2012, 07:21 AM
  #311
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If a trade could be centered around Rasmus for Niese, I'd hop all over it. I'd honestly rather start Cabrera/Davis/Gose/Bonifacio at CF than go into the season with Buck and D'Arnaud as our primary catching unit.

That said, I don't think it'll happen. I'd wager that our prospective positional lineup now is what we enter the season with.

Signing Michael Bourn is the only viable alternative to me. We won't do it, though. Bourn will sign with LA Dodgers, LA Angels, Sox, or, my sleeper pick, Rays, to a bloated contract in terms of dollars and term.

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12-02-2012, 09:53 AM
  #312
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LloydChristmas View Post
If a trade could be centered around Rasmus for Niese, I'd hop all over it. I'd honestly rather start Cabrera/Davis/Gose/Bonifacio at CF than go into the season with Buck and D'Arnaud as our primary catching unit.

That said, I don't think it'll happen. I'd wager that our prospective positional lineup now is what we enter the season with.

Signing Michael Bourn is the only viable alternative to me. We won't do it, though. Bourn will sign with LA Dodgers, LA Angels, Sox, or, my sleeper pick, Rays, to a bloated contract in terms of dollars and term.
Wont sign with the rays. They just lost BJ Upton to FA, I doubt they are gonna throw out the money to sign Bourn.

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12-02-2012, 09:58 AM
  #313
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Didn't Anthopolous say he'll find a way to keep both Arencibia and d'Arnaud in the lineup together? Yes, yes he did.

Say TDA starts off great in AAA and deserves a callup, why not roll d'Arnaud at catcher when he earns it, Buck as backup, Edwin at 1B, JPA is DH and Lind gets traded?

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12-02-2012, 10:00 AM
  #314
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Originally Posted by Brody View Post
Didn't Anthopolous say he'll find a way to keep both Arencibia and d'Arnaud in the lineup together? Yes, yes he did.

Say TDA starts off great in AAA and deserves a callup, why not roll d'Arnaud at catcher when he earns it, Buck as backup, Edwin at 1B, JPA is DH and Lind gets traded?
How many new people are gonna show up and ask this same useless question. JPA has a terrible bat and will NEVER be a primary dh. Why he gets this credit as some elite hitter is beyond me.

I forgot to answer your first question. No he didn't.

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12-02-2012, 10:04 AM
  #315
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Originally Posted by LloydChristmas View Post
If a trade could be centered around Rasmus for Niese, I'd hop all over it. I'd honestly rather start Cabrera/Davis/Gose/Bonifacio at CF than go into the season with Buck and D'Arnaud as our primary catching unit.

That said, I don't think it'll happen. I'd wager that our prospective positional lineup now is what we enter the season with.

Signing Michael Bourn is the only viable alternative to me. We won't do it, though. Bourn will sign with LA Dodgers, LA Angels, Sox, or, my sleeper pick, Rays, to a bloated contract in terms of dollars and term.
I also don't understand why people are so much more willing to trade the better player in a deal for Niese. Rasmus offers much more than JPA does and has a much higher ceiling of the two. You'd rather start Gose in CF who's bat isn't ready over D'Arnaud who's bat is ready? How does that make sense. JPA's offence is easily replaced by Buck. Rasmus' offence is not easily replaced by Gose/Davis or Bonifacio.

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12-02-2012, 10:08 AM
  #316
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Originally Posted by dredeye View Post
How many new people are gonna show up and ask this same useless question. JPA has a terrible bat and will NEVER be a primary dh. Why he gets this credit as some elite hitter is beyond me.

I forgot to answer your first question. No he didn't.
He's massively overrated for some reason.
Maybe its because hes best buddies with Lawrie?
Maybe its because hes a very personable guy?
Maybe its because he hits lots of homeruns?
Maybe its because he has a TON of twitter followers?

Whatever the reason he is overrated by many and they act like hes some budding young star which he is not. To the people saying "AA said he would keep both or JPA would be the opening day guy" thats really what he has to say at this current time as throwing him under the bus and saying otherwise makes no sense. This reminds me so much of the Schenn situation with the Leafs were the guy was massively overrated by the fanbase for reasons outside his play and seemed unwilling to admit his numerous weakness's.

Anyways Bob Elliot says he thinks were still looking for a frontline pitcher.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/12/01...a-no-1-starter

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12-02-2012, 10:11 AM
  #317
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Originally Posted by dredeye View Post
How many new people are gonna show up and ask this same useless question. JPA has a terrible bat and will NEVER be a primary dh. Why he gets this credit as some elite hitter is beyond me.

I forgot to answer your first question. No he didn't.
He has a decent bat for catcher but put him at DH/1b and he would be one of the worst.

It's too bad Travis got injured last year.

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12-02-2012, 11:16 AM
  #318
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I say trade JPA after the season opener. His value will be at an all-time high.

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12-02-2012, 11:34 AM
  #319
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He has a decent bat for catcher
This gets said a lot, but I'm not so sure it's really true.

Using Fangraphs' tables, sorting for catchers over the past two years with at least 400 PA, which should collect all starters and most platoon/steady backup catchers, JPA ranks 25th out of 40 qualified catchers in wOBA.

His power numbers certainly show, ranking 6th in HR and 4th in ISO, but that's heavily outweighed by being ranked 27th in BB%, 37th in K%, and 36th in OBP.

Isolate to 800 PA, so he's up against the starting catchers he aspires to be, and he ranks 14th out of 18 in wOBA.

JPA doesn't have a decent bat for a catcher, he just has the bat of a catcher.

Factor in poor-basrunning, below-average (perhaps improving) defence... hmm.

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12-02-2012, 11:42 AM
  #320
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Originally Posted by dredeye View Post
How many new people are gonna show up and ask this same useless question. JPA has a terrible bat and will NEVER be a primary dh. Why he gets this credit as some elite hitter is beyond me.

I forgot to answer your first question. No he didn't.
lul yeah he did.

and I'd rather have him at DH than Lind, especially considering we're trying to win the division.

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12-02-2012, 11:47 AM
  #321
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Johnson was stellar in 2011 before he got hurt and last year he was solid after the first 6 starts or so. His ERA was 6.60 after 6 starts but after that he was solid. Romero will likely go back to form, too, since it was only one season.

I'd question whether they can stay healthy more than anything.
Maybe their starters are still better than ours, but our lineup blows the Rays lineup way way out of the water. Also, Our bullpen should be just as good as theirs.

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12-02-2012, 11:51 AM
  #322
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Originally Posted by AlienWorkShop View Post
This gets said a lot, but I'm not so sure it's really true.

Using Fangraphs' tables, sorting for catchers over the past two years with at least 400 PA, which should collect all starters and most platoon/steady backup catchers, JPA ranks 25th out of 40 qualified catchers in wOBA.

His power numbers certainly show, ranking 6th in HR and 4th in ISO, but that's heavily outweighed by being ranked 27th in BB%, 37th in K%, and 36th in OBP.

Isolate to 800 PA, so he's up against the starting catchers he aspires to be, and he ranks 14th out of 18 in wOBA.

JPA doesn't have a decent bat for a catcher, he just has the bat of a catcher.

Factor in poor-basrunning, below-average (perhaps improving) defence... hmm.
I agree. When I said decent bat, I meant he isn't the worst catchers in the league when it comes to batting. I would say he is a below average batter which the numbers show except his power numbers.

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12-02-2012, 11:56 AM
  #323
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lul yeah he did.

and I'd rather have him at DH than Lind, especially considering we're trying to win the division.
That makes no sense considering Lind is the better hitter.

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12-02-2012, 12:07 PM
  #324
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Joel Carreño hit in the face by a line drive....

Didn't see this posted, but Joel Carreno was hit in the face pitching down in Winter Ball. It's all over Twitter right now, but looks to be very serious.

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12-02-2012, 12:22 PM
  #325
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lul yeah he did.

and I'd rather have him at DH than Lind, especially considering we're trying to win the division.
post the quote as I don't remember that being said unless it's a vague statement about them having 2 good young catchers. Anyway, if you want to win the division JPA at DH is really no better than Lind at DH.

Lind basic stats from last year when he was horrible

93 games .255 avg .314 obp .414 slg .729 ops 11hr 45 rbi

JPA basic stats from last year

102 games .233avg .275 obp .435 slg .710 ops 18hr 56 rbi

Yeah I don't see the advantage of having him at DH over Lind. JPA's value is that he has power for a CATCHER. With Mottola now the hitting coach with the Jays and his ability to help Lind figure things out I'm pretty confident we can get good production from him again. Not to the extent he used to be much better than what we can hope for from JPA.

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