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ATD 2013 - Planning

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Old
01-17-2013, 03:42 PM
  #476
Johnny Engine
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Speaking of picking out of a hat, here's some food for thought:

The truest way to replicate how playoff series happen, upsets and all, is to pick up to 7 votes out of a hat.
The result wouldn't be truly random, as the votes would represent the odds of a team winning the series. So, let's say the '03 Ducks had a 4/30 chance to beat the Red Wings (based on the votes of their imaginary godlike ATD GMs). And lo and behold, 4 Duck wins got pulled out of a hat in a row! Praise Giggy!
If you're like some people who don't believe in "clutch", you could even use the regular season votes instead of conducting any new voting.

Anyway, I'm not suggesting this is a plan. Mostly I think it would make people really angry.

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01-17-2013, 03:45 PM
  #477
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Engine View Post
Speaking of picking out of a hat, here's some food for thought:

The truest way to replicate how playoff series happen, upsets and all, is to pick up to 7 votes out of a hat.
The result wouldn't be truly random, as the votes would represent the odds of a team winning the series. So, let's say the '03 Ducks had a 4/30 chance to beat the Red Wings (based on the votes of their imaginary godlike ATD GMs). And lo and behold, 4 Duck wins got pulled out of a hat in a row! Praise Giggy!
If you're like some people who don't believe in "clutch", you could even use the regular season votes instead of conducting any new voting.

Anyway, I'm not suggesting this is a plan. Mostly I think it would make people really angry.
I would love to try this for the MLD actually, but not for the ATD. Radical changes should be tried in the minors first.

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01-17-2013, 03:49 PM
  #478
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Engine View Post
Speaking of picking out of a hat, here's some food for thought:

The truest way to replicate how playoff series happen, upsets and all, is to pick up to 7 votes out of a hat.
The result wouldn't be truly random, as the votes would represent the odds of a team winning the series. So, let's say the '03 Ducks had a 4/30 chance to beat the Red Wings (based on the votes of their imaginary godlike ATD GMs). And lo and behold, 4 Duck wins got pulled out of a hat in a row! Praise Giggy!
If you're like some people who don't believe in "clutch", you could even use the regular season votes instead of conducting any new voting.

Anyway, I'm not suggesting this is a plan. Mostly I think it would make people really angry.
It's a very interesting idea that would add an element of randomness to the ATD more in tune with what actually happens when hockey is played. I dunno if we really want such randomness, but this system would be more cruelly realistic, that's for sure.

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01-17-2013, 03:53 PM
  #479
seventieslord
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Very intriguing! I agree with TDMM and Sturm. It would actually reflect real life. And you still have to have 4 votes to have any sort of chance, so massive mismatches simply won't result in a win.

I actually love this idea.

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01-17-2013, 03:54 PM
  #480
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I can see the gambling love in your hearts

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01-17-2013, 03:55 PM
  #481
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Very intriguing! I agree with TDMM and Sturm. It would actually reflect real life. And you still have to have 4 votes to have any sort of chance, so massive mismatches simply won't result in a win.

I actually love this idea.
One benefit is that you would actually know who won Game 1, Game 2, etc.

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01-17-2013, 03:56 PM
  #482
BenchBrawl
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it would be problematic in the later rounds if we don't receive enough votes.

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01-17-2013, 04:33 PM
  #483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Engine View Post
Speaking of picking out of a hat, here's some food for thought:

The truest way to replicate how playoff series happen, upsets and all, is to pick up to 7 votes out of a hat.
The result wouldn't be truly random, as the votes would represent the odds of a team winning the series. So, let's say the '03 Ducks had a 4/30 chance to beat the Red Wings (based on the votes of their imaginary godlike ATD GMs). And lo and behold, 4 Duck wins got pulled out of a hat in a row! Praise Giggy!
If you're like some people who don't believe in "clutch", you could even use the regular season votes instead of conducting any new voting.

Anyway, I'm not suggesting this is a plan. Mostly I think it would make people really angry.
I like this idea as well.

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01-17-2013, 04:36 PM
  #484
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It's an intriguing idea, but a little too random for my taste ... or is it? I would love to see some math on that idea ... any volunteers?

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01-17-2013, 04:39 PM
  #485
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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
It's an intriguing idea, but a little too random for my taste ... or is it? I would love to see some math on that idea ... any volunteers?
My biggest concern is that people already complain if it takes too long to release playoff results, so making it take longer to calculate playoff results will probably cause more complaining about things taking too long.

Going through this process for 16 first round series (or 8 if we split the load like usual) is something of a time commitment.

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01-17-2013, 04:48 PM
  #486
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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
It's an intriguing idea, but a little too random for my taste ... or is it? I would love to see some math on that idea ... any volunteers?
suppose 25 GMs happens to vote on a series and the score is 9-16:

team with 9 votes has a 36% chance of winning.

team with 16 votes has a 64% chance of winning.

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01-17-2013, 04:50 PM
  #487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
My biggest concern is that people already complain if it takes too long to release playoff results, so making it take longer to calculate playoff results will probably cause more complaining about things taking too long.

Going through this process for 16 first round series (or 8 if we split the load like usual) is something of a time commitment.
I agree that this should be test prove in the minors, beofre appearing in the ATD, but nonetheless I would love to see the mathematics done on that.

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01-17-2013, 04:51 PM
  #488
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jafar View Post
suppose 25 GMs happens to vote on a series and the score is 9-16:

team with 9 votes has a 36% chance of winning.

team with 16 votes has a 64% chance of winning.
Is it really that straightforward?

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01-17-2013, 05:03 PM
  #489
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
Is it really that straightforward?
I don't think so. It is more complex than that. the team with 9 votes has a 36% chance of drawing the first "win" 9/25 but that doesn't mean that's their chance of winning the whole series.

I hate math like this (permutations, combinations and the like) but it is not hard to program a BASIC program that simulates this scenario, runs it a million times in a few seconds and comes back with the results of how many times each team wins. That would reflect the "true" odds of winning. I think it's less than 36, it's probably closer to 25%.

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01-17-2013, 05:04 PM
  #490
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wait , it isn't one simple pick to determine the series?

the playoff process is going to take a long time if we have to pick every single match.

the actual math for this is similar to the math used in texas hold'em poker.

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01-17-2013, 05:13 PM
  #491
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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
Is it really that straightforward?
No.

For one, the odds depend on whether votes are selected with or without replacement. (Meaning once a vote is pulled out of the hat, does it go back in?)

The math is complicated enough that I don't want to do it in my head. You need to calculate odds for each separate possibility (team 1 wins in 4, team 1 wins in 5, etc.) the effect is that a 60% favourite in a game is a more than 70% favourite in a series.

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01-17-2013, 05:19 PM
  #492
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
No.

For one, the odds depend on whether votes are selected with or without replacement. (Meaning once a vote is pulled out of the hat, does it go back in?)
I would assume, no.

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01-17-2013, 05:21 PM
  #493
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
No.

For one, the odds depend on whether votes are selected with or without replacement. (Meaning once a vote is pulled out of the hat, does it go back in?)

The math is complicated enough that I don't want to do it in my head. You need to calculate odds for each separate possibility (team 1 wins in 4, team 1 wins in 5, etc.) the effect is that a 60% favourite in a game is a more than 70% favourite in a series.
I think the fairest way is for a pulled vote to go back in, so a team that gets 16/25 votes has a 64% chance of winning each individual game.

I would actually love to try this in a MLD and see what happens.

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01-17-2013, 05:32 PM
  #494
EagleBelfour
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I think the fairest way is for a pulled vote to go back in, so a team that gets 16/25 votes has a 64% chance of winning each individual game.

I would actually love to try this in a MLD and see what happens.
I actually believe the fairest way is to NOT put back the vote in after it was selected. For a 16-to-9 vote, I would be more comfortable to see an upset around 25% of the time, than 36%. But again, we arn't sure of the proper odds.

Come on guys, a lot of us have been bickering over rules in the last week, spending so much time around this board. I`m sure someone with math skills can show us some example of what percentage of he time there would be an upset using GMM idea. (Yes, I`m very curious on that one )

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01-17-2013, 05:56 PM
  #495
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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
I actually believe the fairest way is to NOT put back the vote in after it was selected. For a 16-to-9 vote, I would be more comfortable to see an upset around 25% of the time, than 36%. But again, we arn't sure of the proper odds.

Come on guys, a lot of us have been bickering over rules in the last week, spending so much time around this board. I`m sure someone with math skills can show us some example of what percentage of he time there would be an upset using GMM idea. (Yes, I`m very curious on that one )
With replacement, a team that received 16 of 25 votes would win 78.3% of the time in a "seven game series".

16.8% win in 4
24.2% win in 5
21.4% win in 6
15.7% win in 7
8.8% lose in 7
6.9% lose in 6
4.3% lose in 5
1.7% lose in 4

Without replacement is way harder to calculate, but probably isn't that different. It would make upsets less likely, since with each successive game won by the underdog their odds of winning the next decrease.

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01-17-2013, 06:13 PM
  #496
EagleBelfour
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
With replacement, a team that received 16 of 25 votes would win 78.3% of the time in a "seven game series".

16.8% win in 4
24.2% win in 5
21.4% win in 6
15.7% win in 7
8.8% lose in 7
6.9% lose in 6
4.3% lose in 5
1.7% lose in 4

Without replacement is way harder to calculate, but probably isn't that different. It would make upsets less likely, since with each successive game won by the underdog their odds of winning the next decrease.
Actually, for someone receiving 16 of 25 votes, I think 78% is an excellent number. I would not be comfortable with someone getting 35% of the vote to have less than 20% chance of winning.

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01-17-2013, 06:14 PM
  #497
TheDevilMadeMe
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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
Actually, for someone receiving 16 of 25 votes, I think 78% is an excellent number. I would not be comfortable with someone getting 35% of the vote to have less than 20% chance of winning.
They currently have a 0% chance of winning.

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01-17-2013, 06:22 PM
  #498
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Is the lottery tonight? What the **** are we waitin' on?

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01-17-2013, 06:30 PM
  #499
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Is the lottery tonight? What the **** are we waitin' on?
We didn't even get a confirmed 32nd team until about 10 minutes ago.

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01-17-2013, 06:51 PM
  #500
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They currently have a 0% chance of winning.


exactly.

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