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ATD 2013 - Planning

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Old
01-17-2013, 07:15 PM
  #501
overpass
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
With replacement, a team that received 16 of 25 votes would win 78.3% of the time in a "seven game series".

16.8% win in 4
24.2% win in 5
21.4% win in 6
15.7% win in 7
8.8% lose in 7
6.9% lose in 6
4.3% lose in 5
1.7% lose in 4

Without replacement is way harder to calculate, but probably isn't that different. It would make upsets less likely, since with each successive game won by the underdog their odds of winning the next decrease.
These are the odds for the outcomes based on various voting splits.

Result 50-50 55-45 60-40 65-35 70-30 75-25 80-20 85-15 90-10 95-5 100-0
Win in 4 6% 9% 13% 18% 24% 32% 41% 52% 66% 81% 100%
Win in 5 13% 16% 21% 25% 29% 32% 33% 31% 26% 16% 0%
Win in 6 16% 19% 21% 22% 22% 20% 16% 12% 7% 2% 0%
Win in 7 16% 17% 17% 15% 13% 10% 7% 4% 1% 0% 0%
Lose in 7 16% 14% 11% 8% 6% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lose in 6 16% 12% 9% 6% 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lose in 5 13% 9% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lose in 4 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Win 50% 61% 71% 80% 87% 93% 97% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Lose 50% 39% 29% 20% 13% 7% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0%

This system would introduce a bit of randomness to the draft. A top team could easily lose a series in which it was favoured, but the team that won the whole thing would certainly be one of the top teams and a deserving winner.

It would change what it means to win a series and to win the draft. Not sure yet whether that's a good thing or not.

There would have to be a trustworthy process for generating the random results as well.

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Old
01-17-2013, 07:26 PM
  #502
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
These are the odds for the outcomes based on various voting splits.

Result 50-50 55-45 60-40 65-35 70-30 75-25 80-20 85-15 90-10 95-5 100-0
Win in 4 6% 9% 13% 18% 24% 32% 41% 52% 66% 81% 100%
Win in 5 13% 16% 21% 25% 29% 32% 33% 31% 26% 16% 0%
Win in 6 16% 19% 21% 22% 22% 20% 16% 12% 7% 2% 0%
Win in 7 16% 17% 17% 15% 13% 10% 7% 4% 1% 0% 0%
Lose in 7 16% 14% 11% 8% 6% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Lose in 6 16% 12% 9% 6% 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lose in 5 13% 9% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lose in 4 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Win 50% 61% 71% 80% 87% 93% 97% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Lose 50% 39% 29% 20% 13% 7% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0%

This system would introduce a bit of randomness to the draft. A top team could easily lose a series in which it was favoured, but the team that won the whole thing would certainly be one of the top teams and a deserving winner.

It would change what it means to win a series and to win the draft. Not sure yet whether that's a good thing or not.

There would have to be a trustworthy process for generating the random results as well.
let me just say, I love this.

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01-17-2013, 07:35 PM
  #503
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I support the idea.

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01-17-2013, 07:43 PM
  #504
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I am in every way shape and form against this idea.

This isn't the NHL. We aren't trying to introduce randomness here. We're trying to find who built the best team. Categorically and unequivocally. There is no other thing here. There shouldn't be randomness involved in that.

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01-17-2013, 07:52 PM
  #505
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
I am in every way shape and form against this idea.

This isn't the NHL. We aren't trying to introduce randomness here. We're trying to find who built the best team. Categorically and unequivocally. There is no other thing here. There shouldn't be randomness involved in that.
I get what you're saying, BUT, there is only little bit of randomness here. If you're that much better that you get 70% or more of the votes, you have little to no reason to worry.

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01-17-2013, 07:55 PM
  #506
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
I am in every way shape and form against this idea.

This isn't the NHL. We aren't trying to introduce randomness here. We're trying to find who built the best team. Categorically and unequivocally. There is no other thing here. There shouldn't be randomness involved in that.
But the best team doesn't always win.

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01-17-2013, 07:56 PM
  #507
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
I am in every way shape and form against this idea.

This isn't the NHL. We aren't trying to introduce randomness here. We're trying to find who built the best team. Categorically and unequivocally. There is no other thing here. There shouldn't be randomness involved in that.
You're making a good point. I'll sleep on it and voice my opinion tomorrow. It's not like we need to decide this before draft, do we?

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Originally Posted by bluesfan94 View Post
But the best team doesn't always win.
But this not the NHL. As much as everyone fantasize at least once about it, we cannot play the games, like the NHL do.

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01-17-2013, 08:04 PM
  #508
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
You're making a good point. I'll sleep on it and voice my opinion tomorrow. It's not like we need to decide this before draft, do we?
.
regardless of that, I don't think this has a chance of being instituted in this ATD, does it?

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01-17-2013, 08:04 PM
  #509
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Originally Posted by bluesfan94 View Post
But the best team doesn't always win.
Usually because the worse team plays better in that particular series (yes, I realize there's such a thing as puck luck).

I don't know; I'd be really irritated if 20 GMs voted, 17 voted for me, 3 for my opponent, and I lost because I was the unlucky 1%.

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01-17-2013, 08:07 PM
  #510
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Usually because the worse team plays better in that particular series (yes, I realize there's such a thing as puck luck).

I don't know; I'd be really irritated if 20 GMs voted, 17 voted for me, 3 for my opponent, and I lost because I was the unlucky 1%.
you should need at least 4 votes to win. a guy with 3 should lose by default (the best they could do is lose in 7), and a guy with 4 would need 4 perfect balls drawn.

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01-17-2013, 08:10 PM
  #511
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overpass math looks good , still not sure if I like the concept or not.

I love math but this reminds me of how much I hate probabilities

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01-17-2013, 08:21 PM
  #512
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
you should need at least 4 votes to win. a guy with 3 should lose by default (the best they could do is lose in 7), and a guy with 4 would need 4 perfect balls drawn.
If there is an opposite of a "no duh" award, I win it.

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Old
01-17-2013, 08:31 PM
  #513
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Okay , let's put this idea on the side for now.

We have an actual draft to start , are the 32 teams set? If so , let's do the lottery if anybody is willing to do it (that isn't a GM)

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01-17-2013, 09:24 PM
  #514
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Usually because the worse team plays better in that particular series (yes, I realize there's such a thing as puck luck).
Right.

Outside of a few freak events like Steve Smith, a Kerry Fraser call or a puck bouncing off a stanchion weird, most "upsets" are really just better looking team on paper being beaten by a better team.

I don't like the idea of outcomes being decided randomly. That is by far the exception.

If you have an "underdog" ATD team, the upset is convincing voters that your team is better constructed and can play together more effectively than the individuals on other teams.

Something I failed at last year despite all my care, obviously hahaha

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01-17-2013, 09:41 PM
  #515
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Right.

Outside of a few freak events like Steve Smith, a Kerry Fraser call or a puck bouncing off a stanchion weird, most "upsets" are really just better looking team on paper being beaten by a better team.
I disagree. In the small sample size of a 7 game series, the superior team will not always win 4 games against an inferior team (the 03 Red Wings weren't better than the 03 Ducks only on paper). The best teams will go on losing streaks of 4 out of 7 and the worst team will win 4 out of 7 some time during the season. If these streaks co-incide with the playoffs, upsets occur.

I know baseball is a much easier sport to break down into stats, but from Moneyball:
" Pete Palmer, the Sabremetrician and author of The Hidden Game of Baseball, once calculated that the average difference in baseball due to skill about one run a game. Over a long season the luck even outs and the skill shines through. But in a series of three out of five, or even four out of seven, anything can happen. In a five game series, the worst team in baseball will beat the best about 15% of the time."


Last edited by Hedberg: 01-17-2013 at 09:51 PM.
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01-17-2013, 09:48 PM
  #516
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Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
I disagree. In the small sample size of a 7 game series, the superior team will not always win 4 games against an inferior team (the 03 Red Wings weren't better than the 03 Ducks only on paper). The best teams will go on losing streaks of 4 out of 7 and the worst team will win 4 out of 7 some time during the season. If these streaks co-incide with the playoffs, upsets occur.

I know baseball is a much easier sport to break down into stats, but from Moneyball:
" Pete Palmer, the Sabremetrician and author of The Hidden Game of Baseball, once calculated that the average difference in baseball due to skill about one run a game. Over a long season the luck even outs and the skill shines through. But in a series of three out of five, or even four out of seven, anything can happen. In a five game series, the worst team in baseball will beat the best about 15% of the time."
And it happens by pure mathematical chance?

Ha!

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01-17-2013, 09:48 PM
  #517
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Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
I disagree. In the small sample size of a 7 game series, the superior team will not always win 4 games against an inferior team (the 03 Red Wings weren't better than the 03 Ducks only on paper). The best teams will go on losing streaks of 4 out of 7 and the worst team will win 4 out of 7 some time during the season. If these streaks co-incide with the playoffs, upsets occur.

I know baseball is a much easier sport to break down into stats, but from Moneyball:
" Pete Palmer, the Sabremetrician and author of The Hidden Game of Baseball, once calculated that the average difference in baseball due to skill about one run a game. Over a long season the luck even outs and the skill shines through. But in a series of three out of five, or even four out of seven, anything can happen. In a five game series, the worst team in baseball will beat the best about 15% of the time."
If the 2003 Red Wings had more glue guys willing to fight it out for dirty goals in front of the net, they would have had a better shot.

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01-17-2013, 09:53 PM
  #518
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Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
I disagree. In the small sample size of a 7 game series, the superior team will not always win 4 games against an inferior team (the 03 Red Wings weren't better than the 03 Ducks only on paper). The best teams will go on losing streaks of 4 out of 7 and the worst team will win 4 out of 7 some time during the season. If these streaks co-incide with the playoffs, upsets occur.

I know baseball is a much easier sport to break down into stats, but from Moneyball:
" Pete Palmer, the Sabremetrician and author of The Hidden Game of Baseball, once calculated that the average difference in baseball due to skill about one run a game. Over a long season the luck even outs and the skill shines through. But in a series of three out of five, or even four out of seven, anything can happen. In a five game series, the worst team in baseball will beat the best about 15% of the time."
Sporting events are decided entirely by the actions of participants. Nobody throws dice or goes to random.org to decide them.

Now many people have argued that a certain unpredictability of outcomes for sporting events should be called luck. Maybe it is luck. But at least it's inherent to the competition, not introduced as an outside element.

I think I would rather leave the element of chance in the ATD to individual GMs.

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01-17-2013, 09:54 PM
  #519
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
And it happens by pure mathematical chance?

Ha!
It doesn't happen by mathematical chance - mathematical chance simply illustrates that it will happen. The very best team is usually only winning 70% of their games while the worst are winning about 40%. The very worst playoff around 57%. Look at last year. 1 Vancouver played 8 Los Angeles, but the difference in winning% was only .677 vs. .579%, not a particularly substantial gap.

Luck is a major factor in hockey games - goal posts, deflections, bounces off defenders in front, etc. Lots of "garbage" goals could have easily been cleared by a defender as they are jammed in. Luck isn't random in sports, it is a result of an individual making a play a nanosecond faster than the opponent, but making that play is not something that can be consistently relied upon.

Also, while randomness is realistic, I'm not sure the ATD is really the place for it as I agree with vecens, the point of the playoffs was to give an award to the person who built the best team.

And if we were going for realism, we'd have to find a way to factor in injuries as I think that affects playoff results even more than luck - numerous teams have been derailed by key losses.


Last edited by Hedberg: 01-17-2013 at 09:59 PM.
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01-18-2013, 01:13 AM
  #520
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Alternating conferences formula:

1st overall team is assigned to the Foster Hewitt Division
2nd overall team is assigned to the Bob Cole Division
3rd overall team is assigned to the Jim Robson Division
4th overall team is assigned to the Rene Lecavalier Division
5th overall team is assigned to the James Creighton Division
6th overall team is assigned to the Ray Scapinello Division
7th overall team is assigned to the Louis Magnus Division
8th overall team is assigned to the Sam Pollock Division

REPEAT for 9th-16th overall, then 17th-24th, then 25th-32nd



Foster Hewitt and Jim Robson playoff crossover;
James Creighton Division and Louis Magnus Division playoff crossover;
Bob Cole Division and Rene Lecavalier Division playoff crossover;
Ray Scapinello Division and Sam Pollock Division playoff crossover.
If you swap picks with another team do you also take their spot in whatever division they are in or are divisions based on the original lottery spots and never changed?

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01-18-2013, 01:54 AM
  #521
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If you swap picks with another team do you also take their spot in whatever division they are in or are divisions based on the original lottery spots and never changed?
Last time, divisions didn't change when we swapped picks. I don't really care either way.

If they do change, we shouldn't put up the roster thread until after people are done swapping positions.

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01-18-2013, 02:48 AM
  #522
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actually, if we're letting teams swap divisions, we probably shouldn't put up the roster thread anyway

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01-18-2013, 02:54 AM
  #523
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
actually, if we're letting teams swap divisions, we probably shouldn't put up the roster thread anyway
Swaping picks shouldn't make you change division. Someone might just try and swap picks to get out of a difficult division.

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Old
01-18-2013, 02:54 AM
  #524
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actually, if we're letting teams swap divisions, we probably shouldn't put up the roster thread anyway
Yeah, we should probably wait. I do think that swapping draft positions should equal swapping divisions, so as to maintain balance. Let's just say that draft position swaps are allowed until the first overall pick is made, after which point the divisions and draft positions are set, and we can put up the roster thread. Seems like the most reasonable solution.

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01-18-2013, 02:57 AM
  #525
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Yeah, we should probably wait. I do think that swapping draft positions should equal swapping divisions, so as to maintain balance. Let's just say that draft position swaps are allowed until the first overall pick is made, after which point the divisions and draft positions are set, and we can put up the roster thread. Seems like the most reasonable solution.
Since the first pick could be made as soon as the thread goes up, I think we need more time to swap draft positions. At least until the clock starts on Monday.

unless you think we should hold on on starting to draft, but...


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