There won't be a salary cap to go after once decertification happens if/when it gets to the point of season cancellation.
Nor any professional NHL hockey quite some time afterwards either.
fosho. a decision to decertify is a decision to end the very existance the NHL.
but, i still think they will settle on a deal, even if it is a lame-ass 45 game season. a 60 game season would have been acceptable, and 56 just a bit off. but anything less than 50 should still be considered a failure.
that is the problem with this league; they don't see a lost 1/2 season as a tradegy. they see it as a success.
As much ego and stubborness as there is on both sides, there simply isn't enough difference worth cancelling a season over IMO.
If I had to guess I would say the deal is done by the end of the this month and season beings January 10-15 or so.
None of these sports unions have ever decertified for a reason IMO, and they realize this is the absolute last resort. It is always a threat, but I can't see them taking that route with both sides all but officially agreeing on the dollars in the deal.
There will need to compromise, i.e. maybe a 6 year CBA deal with a 2 year option, maximum player deals at 6 years with 8 years for own team players, and then potentially a 5% variance on year-to-year salaries within a deal.
I think it would be a fair deal for both sides and the players will get their money in the end, just like every other new CBA for the last 20 years.
Theres no way the league goes for that if there shelling out 300M in a make whole agreement. They need to get a 10 year deal to be forking over that type of cash. I agree with the player contract though give them an extra year or two on it.
If we dont have a deal by the end of this week you can pretty much cancel the season. Bettman has already taken the make whole off the table but I think it could be back on if the players come back and accept all of the terms by friday with a little variation to contract legnths.
fosho. a decision to decertify is a decision to end the very existance the NHL.
but, i still think they will settle on a deal, even if it is a lame-ass 45 game season. a 60 game season would have been acceptable, and 56 just a bit off. but anything less than 50 should still be considered a failure.
that is the problem with this league; they don't see a lost 1/2 season as a tradegy. they see it as a success.
Bettman hinted that 48 games would be the least amount of games he'd want played during his press conference.
The 94 lockout ended January 11th with games starting January 20th and running into May which they had never done before. So my guess is that they'll need a deal done by at least January 15th, if not earlier.
The longer this drags out, the more i'm laughing at the 2 shidiots running this s*** show...if they are having this much difficulty trying to divvy up 3.3 billion (of our money, btw), imagine how tough it will be to divvy up $0 of our money, good luck with that you schmucks.
As far as decertification goes, BAD idea for 2 reasons IMO...(1) it says to me that the PA doesnt have any faith in their leadership and (2) it would allow the league carte blanche to play the contraction card and there wouldnt be a GD thing the players could do about it since they would no longer be a union, they would have no power to save jobs (and if i was in Buttheads' shoes, thats the card i would play, or at least threaten to play if they even mention the word decertification).
Didn't hear Fehr's speach today, but if he in any way shape or form, compared todays NHL player and their "struggles" at the bargaining table to a steel worker or someone like that, then it is insulting to every union worker trying to get by and put food on his table. Shameful exploitation.
Some interesting posts brought up here regarding whether the fans will be back or not.
One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that the world is a far different place than it was during the last lockout. Twitter/facebook/etc... have given us far more avenues to spend our time on, while at the same time have given people a much shorter attention span (to the point where most people I know can no longer watch a full length movie).
I do think it may be a mistake on both the NHL and NHLPA's part to take fan interest for granted.
There's a sports analyst that actually said that the the NHLPA and the NHL are no closer now compared to a few months ago.
The season is as good as gone
Not disputing some journo said that but I am not buying that. Of course they are close, even Fehr admitted that.
The only reason the season is gone is if dumb and dumber can't get their heads out of their respective ***** for long enough to reach a compromise in the next 2 weeks to bridge a not insurmountable divide.
I think a deal will be reached this coming week. I know it looks bad right now, but actually the two sides have never been closer, and while I am pro-owner in this debate, Fehr is just doing his job by holding out just a tad longer to make sure the players get the best deal possible.
IMO it will come down to the NHL accepting the NHLPA's proposal. That way it will look like the PA "won" the CBA. Now if the fans and sponsorship come, back that is still up in the air. I bet a
Few more southern markets start really bleeding cash. Does anyone know if Milwaukee as ever been considered as a relocation city. To me it seems like the sort of blue collar town that would embrace
Hockey.
IMO it will come down to the NHL accepting the NHLPA's proposal. That way it will look like the PA "won" the CBA. Now if the fans and sponsorship come, back that is still up in the air. I bet a
Few more southern markets start really bleeding cash. Does anyone know if Milwaukee as ever been considered as a relocation city. To me it seems like the sort of blue collar town that would embrace
Hockey.
Theres no way the league goes for that if there shelling out 300M in a make whole agreement. They need to get a 10 year deal to be forking over that type of cash. I agree with the player contract though give them an extra year or two on it.
If we dont have a deal by the end of this week you can pretty much cancel the season. Bettman has already taken the make whole off the table but I think it could be back on if the players come back and accept all of the terms by friday with a little variation to contract legnths.
I think this is the deal they'll eventually agree on ...
The NHL gives on the 5-year-limit for UFA signings (outside of the players previous team) and just agrees to a 7-year-cap on all contracts across the board with 5 percent variance. Maybe as a bonus existing teams have the option of giving a player a 10 percent variance (so a little more front loaded) if they wish.
And yeah, the PA is going to have to accept a 10 year agreement. *Maybe* they can push it to 9 years, but at this point, with the membership losing money every day, to hold up a CBA for 1 more/less year on the PA's part would be stupid.
In the end both sides can save some face here. Fehr can trump that he got the players $300 million of a possible $390 mill in make whole and the players got mostly the one issue they were not willing to budge on which was taking another huge pay cut on existing contracts, some of which owners just signed a few weeks prior to the lockout.
The owners will get their 50-50 split with a term long enough for it to actually be effective. They may not have won on all the player contract issues, but a 7 year hard contract limit with only 5-10% variance year to year effectively kills the over the top ridiculous front loading deals and "idiot proofs" the CBA for GMs that end up hamstringing their franchise to a DiPietro type deal.
Some people say they don't care or aren't even bothered by this lockout anymore. But man i miss hockey, it for some reason hit me yesterday it was saturday night, HNIC i could have been watching my oilers play the canucks (or any other team for that matter ) i tried watching other sports but none seem to provide the same excitement or entertainment as hockey did maybe i'm just not as passionate about other sports…
Anyway i am really hopeful a deal will be reached in the next week or two or three. Gary Bettman and Donald Fehr are evil men but they're not stupid, Fehr could have advised the pa to take the initial 50/50 offer the owners made months ago like we all wanted him to do, but as it turns out that really wouldn't have been a good move for the pa. today there is a much better offer on the table (or off the table if you believe bettman ) and the sides are so much closer to an agreement. But i guess no one knows whats going to happen, we'll have to wait and see over the next couple weeks if these two sides are really going to let a season be lost over this,
Some people say they don't care or aren't even bothered by this lockout anymore. But man i miss hockey, it for some reason hit me yesterday it was saturday night, HNIC i could have been watching my oilers play the canucks (or any other team for that matter ) i tried watching other sports but none seem to provide the same excitement or entertainment as hockey did maybe i'm just not as passionate about other sports…
Anyway i am really hopeful a deal will be reached in the next week or two or three. Gary Bettman and Donald Fehr are evil men but they're not stupid, Fehr could have advised the pa to take the initial 50/50 offer the owners made months ago like we all wanted him to do, but as it turns out that really wouldn't have been a good move for the pa. today there is a much better offer on the table (or off the table if you believe bettman ) and the sides are so much closer to an agreement. But i guess no one knows whats going to happen, we'll have to wait and see over the next couple weeks if these two sides are really going to let a season be lost over this,
Yesterday was the Saturday night since the season should have started that I didn't miss hockey. Great fights on from 3 in the afternoon til 10 at night basically. I was content. But I miss my old routine from the winter, which is a UFC/Boxing filled Saturday night with a hockey game mixed in, and a couple of Sunday hockey games.
Some people say they don't care or aren't even bothered by this lockout anymore. But man i miss hockey, it for some reason hit me yesterday it was saturday night, HNIC i could have been watching my oilers play the canucks (or any other team for that matter ) i tried watching other sports but none seem to provide the same excitement or entertainment as hockey did maybe i'm just not as passionate about other sports…
Anyway i am really hopeful a deal will be reached in the next week or two or three. Gary Bettman and Donald Fehr are evil men but they're not stupid, Fehr could have advised the pa to take the initial 50/50 offer the owners made months ago like we all wanted him to do, but as it turns out that really wouldn't have been a good move for the pa. today there is a much better offer on the table (or off the table if you believe bettman ) and the sides are so much closer to an agreement. But i guess no one knows whats going to happen, we'll have to wait and see over the next couple weeks if these two sides are really going to let a season be lost over this,
It'll hit me when football season is over. It's a good thing the Falcons are good, or I'd be even more upset.
If a deal is going to be reached, it'll be before Christmas.
Some people say they don't care or aren't even bothered by this lockout anymore. But man i miss hockey, it for some reason hit me yesterday it was saturday night, HNIC i could have been watching my oilers play the canucks (or any other team for that matter ) i tried watching other sports but none seem to provide the same excitement or entertainment as hockey did maybe i'm just not as passionate about other sports…
Anyway i am really hopeful a deal will be reached in the next week or two or three. Gary Bettman and Donald Fehr are evil men but they're not stupid, Fehr could have advised the pa to take the initial 50/50 offer the owners made months ago like we all wanted him to do, but as it turns out that really wouldn't have been a good move for the pa. today there is a much better offer on the table (or off the table if you believe bettman ) and the sides are so much closer to an agreement. But i guess no one knows whats going to happen, we'll have to wait and see over the next couple weeks if these two sides are really going to let a season be lost over this,
I hear ya man, I miss it. keep trying to watch something else, but I just can't care as much.
ps. still really disapointed in the players, I honestly thought as long as they do 50/50 the players will sign. However, the playrs are just incredibly petty and don't want to take any pay cuts. They want more of a pie that is shrinking at a much faster rate than they are getting any of it.
I'll go to bat for Gord no problem. Its not entirely inconsistent to lose interest and support of the NHL and still post here as a longtime poster. Sure this is a hockey board but it also happens to be the most active Edmonton messageboard by a country mile. This place easily starts being a habit. So we post here.
Gord and myself have been upfront about where we stand and that we draw the line on spending more money on something we can't feel good about supporting. We've moved on with some other interests, each lockout realized how little we need the NHL, etc.
Sorry if I got it wrong for speaking on your behalf Gord as I've read your posts on the matter and I think I got it right.
Also don't doubt that there is turnover, recoil, and people turning off the game. The downturn in the NHL down south as far as gate specific revenue was dramatic and with the last lockout introducing a nature of US seat sales in nearly every market that NEVER abated.
Really were it not for some fortunate corrolary advance, for instance the introduction of big screen hdtv(a great format that is seemingly made for hockey dimensions and viewing(note how much football and basketball have also developed since) and the advent of sateliite TV, cable universe, many sports channels and it all specifically helped TV revenue down south. Its fortunate for the NHL that the way people watch, and what they can watch has been so transformed over say the last dozen years.
Hockey was going to be a natural beneficiary of that.
But I don't know that theres a lot more of those pots at end of rainbows coming.
ps shai04. Why are you a canuck fan, and rare poster/lurker making the effort at mouthing off a longtime poster here on the Edmonton board? Maybe go back home and play.
I appreciate your comments, and you did have it right.
I thought the other two posters who were digging into me were being unfair, and were incorrect. just because I post here, even when there is a lockout, doesn't mean I live and breathe the NHL and Oiler hockey, and I'll be two faced on everything I've said and will come running back waving $20 bills at Mr. Katz.
I'm a fan and I'm interested in what's going on.
For hockey news and even non hockey topics, this is a good board to come to, and there generally is an interesting conversation going on. So when I have a few minutes, i'll pop in.
Guess I'm at an age and/or a point in life where I like hockey and want to enjoy Oiler games, but it doesn't affect my life in any substantial way if they play or not.
It is really stupid that both owners and players seem to be trying to destroy a league that is making plenty of money for everyone. I only feel bad for the average joe who has had to go find another job. regardness of what you do for a living, or how much you make, it sucks.
the funniest part of this lockout is the same fans that are the most offended and hurt by it happening, who want boycotts and petitions, who follow players twitters and make snide replies, will be the first ones back. They cry about the fans not being taken into account and they prove they don't have to be thought of.
Not disputing some journo said that but I am not buying that. Of course they are close, even Fehr admitted that.
The only reason the season is gone is if dumb and dumber can't get their heads out of their respective ***** for long enough to reach a compromise in the next 2 weeks to bridge a not insurmountable divide.
They aren't close at all
Fehr took all of NHL's financial aspects and applied it to NHLPA offer with different % variance and only 8 years (Truly 6 years with opt out clause)
It was terrible PR stunt
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quinteoilers
IMO it will come down to the NHL accepting the NHLPA's proposal. That way it will look like the PA "won" the CBA. Now if the fans and sponsorship come, back that is still up in the air. I bet a
Few more southern markets start really bleeding cash. Does anyone know if Milwaukee as ever been considered as a relocation city. To me it seems like the sort of blue collar town that would embrace
Hockey.
Not viable
Stadium is not good and hockey is not popular in Milwaukee area
I think a deal will be reached this coming week. I know it looks bad right now, but actually the two sides have never been closer, and while I am pro-owner in this debate, Fehr is just doing his job by holding out just a tad longer to make sure the players get the best deal possible.
I really hope you're righ. It's all completely unpredictable at this point.
