You are kind of proving my point here. The point is 9 times out of 10 the safer bet is the forward. I would take Tavares over Hedman and I'd take Stamkos over Doughty. Not saying Hedman and Doughty are bad players, the other two are just better building blocks.
I think both players are going to be real solid players, but historically speaking the best bet is to go with the forward.
Not at all. I am saying that you take the best prospect based on your scouting assessment regardless of position and you are saying that you're better off with a forward BECAUSE of position.
My point with Doughty and Hedman is that if they didn't have 2 guys that were generally considered 'prospects with franchise upside', they would have gone 1st overall. If those guys are drafted in 2007,2010,2011 or 2012 instead of 2008 & 2009 respectively, they have a much better shot at going 1st overall.
Now if you want to say that you believe that either: a) D-men that are drafted 1st overall don't tend to seem to reach their potential possibly because the #1 rank status puts undue stress on their careers early on OR b) D-men tend to develop later on in their careers and are therefore harder to judge as 18 year olds, then I'd have less trouble with your generalized blanket statement.
While MacKinnon may very well end up getting drafted #1 overall, it doesn't mean it's the right choice just like we saw with Daigle and Pronger. It also doesn't mean it's a terrible choice, perhaps MacKinnon ends up a player like Kessel and Jones a player like Doughty. There is good value in both.
Well it's been a few days and we have more than 15 votes. Thank you for everyone who posted for sharing your opinions, and at this time the Colorado Avalanche have decided to go with centre Nathan Mackinnon from the Halifax Mooseheads.
When I'm finished with all 30 teams (should be about a month or so), I'll be posting the full draft on the Prospect board, feel free to check it out then