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Which current players will crack top 10 scoring list of all time?

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Old
12-05-2012, 12:16 PM
  #26
Luigi Lemieux
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If you look at the top 10 list, playmaking ability is almost a requirement to be a part of the list. Considering pure goal scorers typically peak rather quickly, i don't see Ovechkin or Stamkos coming anywhere near the top 10.

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12-05-2012, 01:02 PM
  #27
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No one will come close.

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Old
12-05-2012, 02:37 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Would need 1591 points to enter top-10:

Can only see 4 players having any shot at it...

Ovechkin (age 27) needs 912 points. If he plays until 40, he'd have to average 70 points per season.
Crosby (age 25) needs 982 points. If he plays until 40, he'd have to average 65 points per season.
Malkin (age 26) needs 1,064 points. If he plays until 40, he'd have to average 76 points per season.
Stamkos (age 22) needs 1,262 points. If he plays until 40, he'd have to average 70 points per season.
yeah, none have a chance
its a different era, and they're not as good.
Wayne would routinely put up 5, 6 pts per game some years ... there was just so much more scoring. The defensive schemes are tighter, everyone's faster and more fit, the goalies are better and bigger ...
maybe crosby, but he'd have to have a lot of triple digit seasons to make up for the 50-70 pointers in the later 30s... And of course all this assumes playing all the games, right?
yeah, very unlikely

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12-05-2012, 02:39 PM
  #29
ponder
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If Crosby:

a) Stays fairly healthy from now on
b) Plays until he's 40
c) Doesn't have to sit out further seasons due to lockouts

Then he could have a chance to challenge for 2nd all time. He just turned 25 in August, if this season is cancelled, but no further seasons are cancelled, then he'd have 15 seasons to go. To reach the top 10 he'd need to average ~65 points per season, and to reach 2nd all time he'd need to average ~85 points per season. Really it all comes down to health, lockouts, and how long he plays, because I can see him averaging around 1.3 - 1.4 PPG over the next 7ish seasons, and still averaging around 0.7 - 1.0 PPG over his subsequent 8ish seasons, which could have him very high in the all time scoring list IF he has good health and few/no lockouts.

I don't think any other current player has a good shot to reach the top 10, though.

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12-05-2012, 02:50 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legionnaire View Post
No one will come close.
Another way to think of Crosby's chances:

So far he's averaging 1.4 PPG for his career, and has actually been producing at a higher PPG than that in recent seasons. Let's say this whole season is cancelled, but the 5 years after that he continues to average 1.4 PPG (obviously less some years, more in other years, but over the 5 seasons total we'll go with 1.4 PPG). Let's also say he's moderately healthy over this period, averaging 70 games per season. After his 30 year old season, he'd be at 1099 points. If he played until the end of his 40 year old season, he'd need to average just 49.2 points per season over those remaining 10 seasons to reach the top 10.

I feel confident saying that IF Crosby stays moderately healthy (averaging 65-70 games per season), IF he plays until he's 40, and IF there are no further lockouts, then he'll hit top 10 in all time points rather comfortably. If he has lots of injuries, is locked out a couple more seasons, and retires in his mid 30s, then obviously he won't come close. He absolutely has the ability to land well within the top 10, but will need some decent luck in terms of playing enough games.

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Old
12-05-2012, 03:06 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NYVanfan View Post
yeah, none have a chance
its a different era, and they're not as good.
Wayne would routinely put up 5, 6 pts per game some years ... there was just so much more scoring. The defensive schemes are tighter, everyone's faster and more fit, the goalies are better and bigger ...
maybe crosby, but he'd have to have a lot of triple digit seasons to make up for the 50-70 pointers in the later 30s... And of course all this assumes playing all the games, right?
yeah, very unlikely
Don't know why you're saying none of the "big 4" (AO, Sid, Malkin, SS) have a chance?

Ovechkin (age 27) needs 912 points. If he plays until 40, he'd have to average 70 points per season.
Crosby (age 25) needs 982 points. If he plays until 40, he'd have to average 65 points per season.
Malkin (age 26) needs 1,064 points. If he plays until 40, he'd have to average 76 points per season.
Stamkos (age 22) needs 1,262 points. If he plays until 40, he'd have to average 70 points per season.

For everyone except AO - if they can stay healthy - they'll easily average at least 100 points/season in their prime. (And AO easily has the talent for 100+ season if motivated IMO). Forward typically fall off somewhere between 32-37 for the most part. If those guys are healthy and their prime extend to 35-37 range - they can easily break top 10 in scoring. Those are both big "ifs", but I don't think it's a huge stretch to say that SS breaks into the top 10. If he's solid until he's 35, there are a bunch of guys who have put up 50-70 points seasons between 35-40 (Recchi & Whitney the last couple of guys), and neither one of them was as talented as SS. Add in improvements in medicine & training, and I'd be shocked if none of the "big 4" broke into the top 10 when their careers are completed.

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Old
12-05-2012, 03:13 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ponder View Post
If Crosby:

a) Stays fairly healthy from now on
b) Plays until he's 40
c) Doesn't have to sit out further seasons due to lockouts

Then he could have a chance to challenge for 2nd all time. He just turned 25 in August, if this season is cancelled, but no further seasons are cancelled, then he'd have 15 seasons to go. To reach the top 10 he'd need to average ~65 points per season, and to reach 2nd all time he'd need to average ~85 points per season. Really it all comes down to health, lockouts, and how long he plays, because I can see him averaging around 1.3 - 1.4 PPG over the next 7ish seasons, and still averaging around 0.7 - 1.0 PPG over his subsequent 8ish seasons, which could have him very high in the all time scoring list IF he has good health and few/no lockouts.

I don't think any other current player has a good shot to reach the top 10, though.
What about Stamkos? Fitness junkie, who is still only 22 YO, and has the skills to easily put up 100 points/year. SS only needs 1,262 points, so assuming 100 points/year until he's 30, would leave him 10 seasons (until he's 40) to get those 460 points (or even fewer points/season than Crosby does).

IMO, SS is a lock for top 10 if he's healthy. And while SS is younger he hasn't had any major injuries like Crosby & Malkin have both suffered through.


Last edited by spiny norman: 12-05-2012 at 04:05 PM. Reason: corrected [/B][/QUOTE]
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Old
12-05-2012, 03:28 PM
  #33
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IF Crosby can stay healthy, then him. Maybe Malkin too, but that's it.

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Old
12-05-2012, 03:29 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beukeboom Fan View Post
What about Stamkos? Fitness junkie, who is still only 22 YO, and has the skills to easily put up 100 points/year. SS only needs 1,262 points, so assuming 100 points/year until he's 30, would leave him 10 seasons (until he's 40) to get those 460 points (or even fewer points/season than Crosby does).

IMO, SS is a lock for top 10 if he's healthy. And while SS is younger he hasn't had any major injuries like Crosby & Malkin have both suffered through.
It's possible. I just feel that when both are healthy, Crosby will produce at a significantly higher PPG than Stamkos, and playmakers like Crosby tend to maintain their production better with age than goalscorers like Stamkos. Injuries will happen, I think you need to be able to consistently put up a very high PPG during your prime AND continue to produce quite well as you age to make it high in all time scoring lists, and I just feel like that describes Crosby better than Stamkos (assuming Crosby is over his concussion issues, of course).

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Old
12-05-2012, 03:42 PM
  #35
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all 4 of them have a chance

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Old
12-05-2012, 03:43 PM
  #36
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Last year Malkin was washed up. Now he's a "consistent 100 point machine" lol.

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12-05-2012, 03:44 PM
  #37
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As long as Crosby doesn't have any more serious injuries and he plays until he's ~40, he has a good chance to make it.

However both of those are pretty unlikely...

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Old
12-05-2012, 03:50 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beukeboom Fan View Post
What about Stamkos? Fitness junkie, who is still only 22 YO, and has the skills to easily put up 100 points/year. SS only needs 1,262 points, so assuming 100 points/year until he's 30, would leave him 10 seasons (until he's 40) to get those 460 points (or even fewer points/season than Crosby does).

IMO, SS is a lock for top 10 if he's healthy. And while SS is younger he hasn't had any major injuries like Crosby & Malkin have both suffered through.
Except that Stamkos has never scored 100 points.

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Old
12-05-2012, 03:56 PM
  #39
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Old
12-05-2012, 03:58 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by TAnnala View Post
No one.
I agree.

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Old
12-05-2012, 04:12 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bambamcam4ever View Post
Except that Stamkos has never scored 100 points.
Fair enough, if he averages 97 points per year during his prime - he's got a TON of time to break into the top 10.

And while I agree that he's probably not going to average 60 goals per year, I think as he matures his playmaking skills will improve as he adapts his game to what NHL teams do to try to take away his shot.

He got to 97 points last year with probably the least offensive oriented group of d-men in the league. I just think that for a 22 YO kid who is PPG+ even taking into account a REALLY poor rookie season - he's got a great chance of breaking into the top 10 career scoring wise.

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Old
12-05-2012, 04:19 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
Last year Malkin was washed up. Now he's a "consistent 100 point machine" lol.
It's my understanding that he was playing hurt in 2010-11, which hampered his production.

Malkin is averaging almost 1.25 points/game over his career. At that pace - he needs about 850 more games (or about 10 seasons) to break into the top 10. He's highly unlikely to be in his prime for 10 more seasons, but if he's in his primve for even something like 7 years (to 32), still leaves him only 300 points short of breaking into the top 10. That's 5 years at 60 points, which is very realistic, and he's still only 37 YO.

The big issue with all of these guys is health. Projected stats aren't going to get them into the top 10 all time. I just don't think it's unrealistic to expect a guy as skilled as Malkin or Crosby to be able to produce like Martin St. Louis or Ray Whitney did last year. And if they can do that - they're going to easily get into the top 10.

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