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Off-Season Madness the 9th: Tom Cheek Memorial Edition

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12-09-2012, 10:14 AM
  #476
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Its a matter of perspective.

Kershaw is definitely the best of the four. But Hellickson is younger and has been better lately, thats why I'd take him over Greinke (just a matter of preference).

Man I am hoping Romero can get back to where he was two years ago. Imagine a one two of JJ and RR, both having ERA's around 3 and following that up with Morrow and Buerhle. Damn that would be deadly.
Romeos never had it around 3 but then again I doubt he's peaked. His control last year was beyond terrible so he should work hard this offseason. A 1-2 of Morrow and JJ is great as it is so if Romero bounces back it gives us a great 1-2-3. Pretty excited for next year.

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12-09-2012, 10:19 AM
  #477
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If the Dodgers don't sign Hyun-Jin Ryu today, they will shift their focus to free agent pitcher Anibal Sanchez, a source tells Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The Dodgers have until 4pm CST to ink a deal.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports looked at two trade scenarios for the Mets involving R.A. Dickey. One featured the Rangers while the other featured the Blue Jays.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/v...termine-120812
Possibility No. 1: Dickey for Rangers infielder Mike Olt.
Possibility No. 2: Dickey for Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia and center fielder Anthony Gose.
The Jays definitely would say “no” to this.

so why not JPA and Rasmus Ken Rosenthal?

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12-09-2012, 10:21 AM
  #478
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Same, him or Bumgarner gonna be awesome for a while.
since they won ANOTHER title is it possible yet to get bumgarner from them ??

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Old
12-09-2012, 10:22 AM
  #479
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Romeos never had it around 3 but then again I doubt he's peaked. His control last year was beyond terrible so he should work hard this offseason. A 1-2 of Morrow and JJ is great as it is so if Romero bounces back it gives us a great 1-2-3. Pretty excited for next year.
His 2.92 in 2011 was below 3.

His control was horrible, he was getting hit to much and walking himself into trouble way to much. I think he was putting pressure on himself to become the ace, but maybe he can stop doing that and just worry about getting each batter out.

If Romero does that (even if its 3.3-3.5 and can pitch 200 + innings) he'd be awesome. Morrow has to stay healthy, if he can do that and repeat last year (or even close he'll be awesome). JJ again has to stay healthy, and he could get an ERA anywhere from 3.8-2.8.

We have a lot of if's in that SP rotation. but if even 2 of 3 of those turn out right, we could be pretty deadly.

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12-09-2012, 10:30 AM
  #480
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
If the Dodgers don't sign Hyun-Jin Ryu today, they will shift their focus to free agent pitcher Anibal Sanchez, a source tells Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The Dodgers have until 4pm CST to ink a deal.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports looked at two trade scenarios for the Mets involving R.A. Dickey. One featured the Rangers while the other featured the Blue Jays.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/v...termine-120812
Possibility No. 1: Dickey for Rangers infielder Mike Olt.
Possibility No. 2: Dickey for Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia and center fielder Anthony Gose.
The Jays definitely would say “no” to this.

so why not JPA and Rasmus Ken Rosenthal?
I would not be happy if AA did that deal.

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Old
12-09-2012, 10:32 AM
  #481
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
If the Dodgers don't sign Hyun-Jin Ryu today, they will shift their focus to free agent pitcher Anibal Sanchez, a source tells Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The Dodgers have until 4pm CST to ink a deal.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports looked at two trade scenarios for the Mets involving R.A. Dickey. One featured the Rangers while the other featured the Blue Jays.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/v...termine-120812
Possibility No. 1: Dickey for Rangers infielder Mike Olt.
Possibility No. 2: Dickey for Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia and center fielder Anthony Gose.
The Jays definitely would say “no” to this.

so why not JPA and Rasmus Ken Rosenthal?
No to the original trade, no to yours.

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12-09-2012, 10:38 AM
  #482
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Its a matter of perspective.

Kershaw is definitely the best of the four. But Hellickson is younger and has been better lately, thats why I'd take him over Greinke (just a matter of preference).

Man I am hoping Romero can get back to where he was two years ago. Imagine a one two of JJ and RR, both having ERA's around 3 and following that up with Morrow and Buerhle. Damn that would be deadly.
You'd take Hellickson over Greinke?
Am I missing something here?

These two arent even close!

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Old
12-09-2012, 10:54 AM
  #483
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You'd take Hellickson over Greinke?
Am I missing something here?

These two arent even close!
Hellickson is 25, entering his third full season, has a salary of 500, 000 is coming off a season of a 3.10 ERA, and 2.95 before that. Greinke is 29, in the last three season hes had an ERA under 3.5 once, and it was 3.48, hes making 24.1 million.

Am I missing something?

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12-09-2012, 10:57 AM
  #484
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
]Possibility No. 2: Dickey for Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia and center fielder Anthony Gose.
The Jays definitely would say “no” to this.

so why not JPA and Rasmus Ken Rosenthal?
No for both please.

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12-09-2012, 10:59 AM
  #485
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Originally Posted by p.l.f. View Post
If the Dodgers don't sign Hyun-Jin Ryu today, they will shift their focus to free agent pitcher Anibal Sanchez, a source tells Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The Dodgers have until 4pm CST to ink a deal.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports looked at two trade scenarios for the Mets involving R.A. Dickey. One featured the Rangers while the other featured the Blue Jays.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/v...termine-120812
Possibility No. 1: Dickey for Rangers infielder Mike Olt.
Possibility No. 2: Dickey for Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia and center fielder Anthony Gose.
The Jays definitely would say “no” to this.

so why not JPA and Rasmus Ken Rosenthal?
Stop offering Rasmus!

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Old
12-09-2012, 10:59 AM
  #486
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Originally Posted by calcal798 View Post
Hellickson is 25, entering his third full season, has a salary of 500, 000 is coming off a season of a 3.10 ERA, and 2.95 before that. Greinke is 29, in the last three season hes had an ERA under 3.5 once, and it was 3.48, hes making 24.1 million.

Am I missing something?
-Greinke last season finished 7th overall in the league in WAR.
-Hellickson last seasno finished 80TH overall in the league in WAR (Behind stud pitchers like Harang, Bud Norris, Mike Leake, Luiz Mendoza).

Are you really basing your opinion of a pitcher off of ERA?

I thought we were talking about the best 1-2 combos and thus whos the better pitchers, not whos the better bang for your buck.

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Old
12-09-2012, 11:06 AM
  #487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by calcal798 View Post
Hellickson is 25, entering his third full season, has a salary of 500, 000 is coming off a season of a 3.10 ERA, and 2.95 before that. Greinke is 29, in the last three season hes had an ERA under 3.5 once, and it was 3.48, hes making 24.1 million.

Am I missing something?
Why would you factor in age and contract when determining the better player? The question is based solely on productivity and ability to which Grienke is the better pitcher.

I think you are having an entirely different conversation, namely, who you would rather have (this is a question where it would be reasonable to take into consideration age and contract).

For example, I would rather have Jayson Heward than Jose Bautista. Why? Age, contract, and projected increase. However, Jose Bautista is the better baseball player, just like Grienke is the better pitcher than Hellickson.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stakesishigh View Post
No for both please.
Agreed. There are other pitchers that can be had for the price who make more sense for the future.

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Old
12-09-2012, 11:09 AM
  #488
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Quote:
Originally Posted by weems View Post
-Greinke last season finished 7th overall in the league in WAR.
-Hellickson last seasno finished 80TH overall in the league in WAR (Behind stud pitchers like Harang, Bud Norris, Mike Leake, Luiz Mendoza).

Are you really basing your opinion of a pitcher off of ERA?

I thought we were talking about the best 1-2 combos and thus whos the better pitchers, not whos the better bang for your buck.
I dunno I kinda figured you would factor it into the equation, not like they come for free. I was getting my stats off Baseball reference too, which has completely different WAR then Fan Graph (which i prob should use).


Last edited by calcal798: 12-09-2012 at 11:33 AM.
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Old
12-09-2012, 11:14 AM
  #489
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Originally Posted by calcal798 View Post
Hellickson is 25, entering his third full season, has a salary of 500, 000 is coming off a season of a 3.10 ERA, and 2.95 before that. Greinke is 29, in the last three season hes had an ERA under 3.5 once, and it was 3.48, hes making 24.1 million.

Am I missing something?
He's also the luckiest pitcher in baseball. His FIP, xFIP, SIERA, ridiculously low babip, and ridiculously high LOB% all point to that. If I was the Rays GM, I'd be selling 'high' on him this off-season. Grienke, Kershaw, etc. are in a different league. I agree, the price tag does offer value, but he's not as good as his surface stats appear.

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12-09-2012, 11:15 AM
  #490
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His 2.92 in 2011 was below 3.

His control was horrible, he was getting hit to much and walking himself into trouble way to much. I think he was putting pressure on himself to become the ace, but maybe he can stop doing that and just worry about getting each batter out.

If Romero does that (even if its 3.3-3.5 and can pitch 200 + innings) he'd be awesome. Morrow has to stay healthy, if he can do that and repeat last year (or even close he'll be awesome). JJ again has to stay healthy, and he could get an ERA anywhere from 3.8-2.8.

We have a lot of if's in that SP rotation. but if even 2 of 3 of those turn out right, we could be pretty deadly.
Wow my bad, I never thought it was that low. Guess I should look it up next time

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12-09-2012, 11:16 AM
  #491
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No to the original trade, no to yours.
This x 2.

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12-09-2012, 11:21 AM
  #492
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Why is A-Rod putting off the surgery till January? You'd think he'd want it done sooner then later so that he could be back sooner?
maybe he doesn't want to be recovering from surgery through the holidays and also likely just doesn't care.

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12-09-2012, 11:23 AM
  #493
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Why would you factor in age and contract when determining the better player? The question is based solely on productivity and ability to which Grienke is the better pitcher.

I think you are having an entirely different conversation, namely, who you would rather have (this is a question where it would be reasonable to take into consideration age and contract).

For example, I would rather have Jayson Heward than Jose Bautista. Why? Age, contract, and projected increase. However, Jose Bautista is the better baseball player, just like Grienke is the better pitcher than Hellickson.
Yep I'll give that, if you could pick two without money being a factor you'd take Greinke.

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12-09-2012, 11:31 AM
  #494
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maybe he doesn't want to be recovering from surgery through the holidays and also likely just doesn't care.

Ding Ding


The guy is such a piece of ****.

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12-09-2012, 11:50 AM
  #495
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I'm sure a smart GM would have sold high on Hellickson prior to last season, all he did was follow up a historically "lucky" season with another historically "lucky" season. Luck by definition is not predictable, therefor I have no idea what this is but I wouldn't call it luck.

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12-09-2012, 11:52 AM
  #496
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I'm sure a smart GM would have sold high on Hellickson prior to last season, all he did was follow up a historically "lucky" season with another historically "lucky" season. Luck by definition is not predictable, therefor I have no idea what this is but I wouldn't call it luck.
There is something to be said for pitchers who consistently outpitch their metrics. Romero was that before last year. Fangraphs jokingly used to refer to them as the anti-Brandon Morrows. At some point, you have to acknowledge that they have a skill which the current advanced stats don't take into account (ie missing bats).

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12-09-2012, 11:58 AM
  #497
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There is something to be said for pitchers who consistently outpitch their metrics. Romero was that before last year. Fangraphs jokingly used to refer to them as the anti-Brandon Morrows. At some point, you have to acknowledge that they have a skill which the current advanced stats don't take into account (ie missing bats).
IIRC, I remember reading somewhere that change-up is the type of pitch that could help you sustain a lower BABIP than usual but even then, Hellickson shouldn't be outperforming by this much. LOB% and BABIP are far too unsustainable. League average is around .300 while his career BABIP is .244, that's bound to come up. His flyballs help us understand a bit why he has such a low BABIP and maybe he is the next Jered Weaver or Matt Cain but even then, it has to come up. He is also not a guy that keeps his flyballs in the park so its even harder to see him sustaining such a low BABIP/ERA.

Also, Romero only outperformed his peripherals in 2011, they were bang on in his 2010 and 2009 seasons. Hellickson is due for some big time regression(s). It wouldn't surprise me next season if he ended up posting a 5+ ERA.


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12-09-2012, 12:02 PM
  #498
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If the Dodgers don't sign Hyun-Jin Ryu today, they will shift their focus to free agent pitcher Anibal Sanchez, a source tells Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The Dodgers have until 4pm CST to ink a deal.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports looked at two trade scenarios for the Mets involving R.A. Dickey. One featured the Rangers while the other featured the Blue Jays.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/v...termine-120812
Possibility No. 1: Dickey for Rangers infielder Mike Olt.
Possibility No. 2: Dickey for Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia and center fielder Anthony Gose.
The Jays definitely would say “no” to this.

so why not JPA and Rasmus Ken Rosenthal?
Why would the Jays have to give up significantly more? I don't see Olt being any better than Gose (Arguably even worse) and adding JPA on top of that? He says its a bad trade for the Jays than says JPA for Dickey straight up is better. Why not say that off the bat.

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12-09-2012, 12:02 PM
  #499
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IIRC, I remember reading somewhere that change-up is the type of pitch that could help you sustain a lower BABIP than usual but even then, Hellickson shouldn't be outperforming by this much. LOB% and BABIP are far too unsustainable.

Also, Romero only outperformed his peripherals in 2011, they were bang on in his 2010 and 2009 seasons. Hellickson is due for some big time regression(s). It wouldn't surprise me next season if he ended up posting a 5+ ERA.
How many times would he have to post a 3ish ERA before you stopped believing that one of the worst pitchers in the league was secretly posing as one of the best?

What-ever it is that Hellickson is doing, I want some of that.

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12-09-2012, 12:04 PM
  #500
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How many times would he have to post a 3ish ERA before you stopped believing that one of the worst pitchers in the league was secretly posing as one of the best?

What-ever it is that Hellickson is doing, I want some of that.
Maybe if he keeps doing season after seasons for like 5-6 seasons, sure, I'll buy it but I am definitely not buying it right now.

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