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2012-2013 Rangers Prospects Thread (Player Stats in Post #1; Updated 3/11) *Part II*

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Old
12-24-2012, 02:59 AM
  #126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beacon View Post
This is structurally a bad argument.

1. I said that Skjei not making it is a bad thing.
2. You responded by arguing that making the team is still not necessarily a guarantee of anything.

This is illogical. That's like me saying, "Five dollars isn't enough" and you responding, "Ten dollars isn't always enough either." That just serves to make my argument stronger. If $10 isn't always enough, surely we are in trouble if we have only $5. (Anyone who doesn't get analogies and doesn't understand what I just wrote, please ignore this post and don't write stupid things like, "What do do dollars have in common with Skjei?")

If making the WJC still means you might be a long-shot, then not making it is that much worse.

Let me put it another way: if being a first round draft pick doesn't guarantee playing in the NHL, wouldn't your odds be that much worse if you are not drafted at all?

It is precisely because half the players on Team USA are not future NHLers that makes him not making it a concern. For every McDonagh who failed to make Team USA, but went on to the NHL anyway, there are hundreds of examples of people who failed to make the WJC and went on to have a career in the ECHL.

The rule of thumb is that if you fail to make Team USA, you will probably spend your career in the minors. Are there exceptions? Definitely, but let's keep in mind that they are just that: exceptions. McDonagh for those who failed to make Team USA = Girardi for those who went undrafted, they are both exceptions. (Girardi being a somewhat greater exception.)

Combine this with the fact that Skjei has not had a good season in the NCAA and I'm starting to get concerned. I hope he can reverse his development quickly.
Agree with most of your statement. However, he will have a 2nd chance next year to make the WJC squad - no? If he does not make it then, well yes, then there might be a cause for concern.

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12-24-2012, 03:00 AM
  #127
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Originally Posted by BBKers View Post
Agree with most of your statement. However, he will have a 2nd chance next year to make the WJC squad - no? If he does not make it then, well yes, then there might be a cause for concern.
Yes, he would be 19 next year.

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12-24-2012, 06:52 AM
  #128
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The WJC is the most overrated ********, come on.

It's a short tourney with limited teams...yes it's nice if a player makes it and does well but way too much gets read into it these days. Very overanalized

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12-24-2012, 08:48 AM
  #129
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I think the WJC is a nightmare for all defensemen anyway. It's not a good gauge of defensive abilities since its a track meet with poor goaltending and a zillion power plays.

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12-24-2012, 09:18 AM
  #130
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the disappointment of brady getting cut starts and ends with disappointment over him missing out on the experience of playing in the tourney...and if he made the team as the 7th dman and didn't play than he wouldn't have had that experience anyway.

he is not a worse prospect today then he was a week ago, just like he, nieves and fogarty won't become instantly better if they make team usa next year.

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12-24-2012, 12:28 PM
  #131
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The disappointment isn't just that he is missing the experience, but also that he got beat out by lower drafted players. There were only 3 American defensemen drafted in the first round in 2011 and 2012. Another 5 were drafted in the second round of the two years combined. That's not a lot of competition.

Instead he gets beat out by the tiny guys like Shayne Gostisbehere and Matt Grzelcyk who were just drafted in the third round this year. Mike Reilly is a 4th rounder, but at least it was last year and you can argue that he's older and had more time to develop.

But how is it not a disappointment when our prospect gets beaten out for a spot by two third rounders just a few months after the draft?

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12-24-2012, 12:34 PM
  #132
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thats like judging a prospect based on stats...whether skjei is a future star or the worst pick in nhl history absolutely NOTHING about his status as a prospect changed

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12-24-2012, 12:54 PM
  #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beacon View Post
The disappointment isn't just that he is missing the experience, but also that he got beat out by lower drafted players. There were only 3 American defensemen drafted in the first round in 2011 and 2012. Another 5 were drafted in the second round of the two years combined. That's not a lot of competition.

Instead he gets beat out by the tiny guys like Shayne Gostisbehere and Matt Grzelcyk who were just drafted in the third round this year. Mike Reilly is a 4th rounder, but at least it was last year and you can argue that he's older and had more time to develop.

But how is it not a disappointment when our prospect gets beaten out for a spot by two third rounders just a few months after the draft?
Maybe the people making the decisions felt the other guys' games are more suited to the big ice

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12-24-2012, 12:54 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by CM PUNK View Post
thats like judging a prospect based on stats...whether skjei is a future star or the worst pick in nhl history absolutely NOTHING about his status as a prospect changed

I agree with the first part of the statement: it's just like judging a prospect based on stats. However, people tend to completely devalue stats because they view everything as a 0% or 100% game. If something doesn't prove the outcome with certainty, it is discarded. Assuming that a partial indicator predicts nothing is no more logical than assuming that a partial indicator predicts everything. It's the same error in the other direction.

How can people possibly say that stats predict nothing? Are you telling me that if Marc Savard did not statistically dominate the OHL in the mid-90s, odds are he'd still wind up an NHL first liner? Do you think that an OHLer playing a similar style to Marc Savard, but who scores only 35 points a season instead of 150 points has an equal chance of becoming an NHL All Star?

There's no 100% certain indicator. People here pretend like them watching an occasional game is a great predictor of something, but it's not. You are not a professional scout and you are not watching enough games. A player's stats and him being chosen for honors (awards, WJC, named captain, etc) are partial indicators, certainly no less valuable than a fan watching an occasional game.

When a player is chosen to play for a team or to be named captain, that's a very good indicator because it is based on the judgment of professional talent evaluators (coaches, scouts and managers working together) who are watching the guy shift to shift.

But no, I'm supposed to instead take the word of anonymous people on a forum who're most likely lying about having ever seen Skjei play.


Last edited by Beacon: 12-24-2012 at 01:01 PM.
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12-24-2012, 12:55 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by Beacon View Post
The disappointment isn't just that he is missing the experience, but also that he got beat out by lower drafted players. There were only 3 American defensemen drafted in the first round in 2011 and 2012. Another 5 were drafted in the second round of the two years combined. That's not a lot of competition.

Instead he gets beat out by the tiny guys like Shayne Gostisbehere and Matt Grzelcyk who were just drafted in the third round this year. Mike Reilly is a 4th rounder, but at least it was last year and you can argue that he's older and had more time to develop.

But how is it not a disappointment when our prospect gets beaten out for a spot by two third rounders just a few months after the draft?
Skjei not making the team is a function of Housley's preferences and biases. He went with offensive defenseman and that will likely bite him. If team USA had a different coach Brady likely makes the team. He didn't get beat out. He was rejected by a former offensive defenseman who has a clear bias to that style of play. Not an indictment of Brady, of the Rangers selecting him or of his future value. Do you remember Tyler Seguin's WJC's appearance? Neither do I. He was passed over as an 18 year old (he was almost 18 at the time)

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12-24-2012, 01:03 PM
  #136
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I would not take any of Reilly, Gryz, or Gostisbehere over Skjei long term. But I understand why the US staff would take them now - even though personally I still disagree.

Would it have been better if he made the team? Of course. But all it "predicts" is that the US staff prefers other players right now. Prospects and scouting is all projection; if it wasn't, we could create an algorithm that allowed us to make the best draft pick each time by dumping in variables.

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12-24-2012, 01:48 PM
  #137
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I don't think some people are factoring in that this is a coaching staff's decision and Phil Housley just might prefer certain types of players--smaller, slicker puck moving defensemen to others--larger more physical and/or defense oriented. He might even favor an older team.

I really think the WJC is a great tournament but I don't see it as a be all or end all of a player's worth. Plenty of players have had excellent careers who never played in it.

On another note--I think at this point in time Ceresnak has almost no chance of landing a contract. His two years in the OHL have been very underwhelming.

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12-24-2012, 01:57 PM
  #138
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On the Gophers Reilly is far more noticable. He also has those moments where you cringe and are glad he has a decent D partner.

Skjei is just smooth. Plays smart and moves on. Very unnoticable, which is great for a d man.

USA is going to win big. Or lose big. They have some small forwards and decided that a shoot out was the best way to win.

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12-24-2012, 01:58 PM
  #139
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The big problem, IMO, is that people still seem to assume a linear development curve that every prospect more or less needs to follow. For a late round pick with good tools, I'm 'not too worried about Skeji not making the WJC team at this point. He's a freshman on a college team with a deep talent pool at D, this is a learning year for him. I expect him to be much more successful next year and be considered realistically for the WJC next year.

It's fine to say "hey that's disappointing" and "he needs to improve or we should be worried" but passing judgements on a players future this early is silly. Also, a late round pick really isn't exactly expected to make the WJC's, there are only so many spots and plenty of returning players, etc

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12-24-2012, 02:33 PM
  #140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beacon View Post
I agree with the first part of the statement: it's just like judging a prospect based on stats. However, people tend to completely devalue stats because they view everything as a 0% or 100% game. If something doesn't prove the outcome with certainty, it is discarded. Assuming that a partial indicator predicts nothing is no more logical than assuming that a partial indicator predicts everything. It's the same error in the other direction.

How can people possibly say that stats predict nothing? Are you telling me that if Marc Savard did not statistically dominate the OHL in the mid-90s, odds are he'd still wind up an NHL first liner? Do you think that an OHLer playing a similar style to Marc Savard, but who scores only 35 points a season instead of 150 points has an equal chance of becoming an NHL All Star?

There's no 100% certain indicator. People here pretend like them watching an occasional game is a great predictor of something, but it's not. You are not a professional scout and you are not watching enough games. A player's stats and him being chosen for honors (awards, WJC, named captain, etc) are partial indicators, certainly no less valuable than a fan watching an occasional game.

When a player is chosen to play for a team or to be named captain, that's a very good indicator because it is based on the judgment of professional talent evaluators (coaches, scouts and managers working together) who are watching the guy shift to shift.

But no, I'm supposed to instead take the word of anonymous people on a forum who're most likely lying about having ever seen Skjei play.
it has nothing to do with ignoring things that don't support your case and EVERYTHING to do with not overreacting over a single random factor by itself. if you use stats, being named to the wjc team, being named captain, winning individual awards as factors in the big picture you can give those things meaning. but to often people on message boards that don't actually see the kids play use those isolated factors to make random judgments about them. sometimes those judgments are right, but imo its silly to overreact over a single factor like that.

i'm not saying if i think skjei is a good prospect or not...but whether or not he is good didn't change cause he didn't make the team, just like he wouldn't have suddenly become a guaranteed allstar if he made the team.

would i have preferred that he made the team? of course i would have but in the big picture projecting his career 3-4 years from now it means very little

and on your savard example...the reason his stats by themselves mean nothing is that there have been other players that put up huge numbers in juniors and then do nothing. marc savard scored 139 points in the OHL and then went on to have a pretty good nhl career. but corey locke scored 151 points in the OHL and then went on to pick up 1 assist in 9 games in the nhl cause he wasn't good enough to even make the nhl, no less be a top line player. So i'm not sure how you can argue that savard scoring 139 points is proof that he is a future star. cause based on that same logic locke should have been a superstar if you ignore everything else.

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12-24-2012, 04:14 PM
  #141
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Originally Posted by CM PUNK View Post
and on your savard example...the reason his stats by themselves mean nothing is that there have been other players that put up huge numbers in juniors and then do nothing. marc savard scored 139 points in the OHL and then went on to have a pretty good nhl career. but corey locke scored 151 points in the OHL and then went on to pick up 1 assist in 9 games in the nhl cause he wasn't good enough to even make the nhl, no less be a top line player. So i'm not sure how you can argue that savard scoring 139 points is proof that he is a future star. cause based on that same logic locke should have been a superstar if you ignore everything else.

Focus here. Go re-read what I wrote about because I purposely repeated it about 4-5 times, each time differently, hoping that you'll read it at least once.

... It really sucks that nobody is teaching statistics in high school and barely in college... I hate having to constantly explain to people how life is not a 0% or 100% choice...


What I discussed was about odds, which is the best we can do when it comes to prospects. There's no certain way to predict anything, but some things improve the odds and some things reduce the odds.

Does Savard and Locke scoring big in the OHL prove anything with 100% certainty? No. But would they have been better off had they scored less? Do you prefer that our prospect scores more or less?

If McColgan's offensive numbers didn't plateau and he had scored 120 points in his pre-draft year, do you think he would've still been available in round 5 or would he have gone in the top-3 of the first round? If McColgan scored 150 points this year, do you think we'd be doubting if he'll get an NHL contract?

What's the difference between Thomas and McColgan? One scored at a decent pace and one didn't. One is regarded as a top, though risky prospect and one is regarded as a barely a prospect. Does that guarantee that Thomas will be a star goalscorer? Of course not, but to suggest that his better offensive numbers do not give him better odds of making it is preposterous.

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12-24-2012, 04:17 PM
  #142
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Every time a guy makes any team or wins any award, the fans declare that it's proof that he's a good prospect.

Every time a guy fails to do so, "politics" and "personal preference" is blamed. Why weren't "politics" and "personal preference" blamed for Ryan Bourque making the WJC team or Kreider making the WC? Of wait, it's because we liked the result. Gotcha.

This is pure BS. If our guy doesn't make it, take it the same way you would've taken it if he made it.

It's been 3 years since Kreider won the WJC Gold as a marginal player (yes, he was a bottom-6 player who was often out of place on the ice; Kreider ran up his goal scoring due to his shot and some luck, not because the rest of his game was up to par). And yet, I still have to hear about it. Winning on the team's third line 3 years ago makes him a proven winner, but Skjei not making it this week, well, that doesn't matter.

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12-24-2012, 05:28 PM
  #143
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Quote:
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The disappointment isn't just that he is missing the experience, but also that he got beat out by lower drafted players. There were only 3 American defensemen drafted in the first round in 2011 and 2012. Another 5 were drafted in the second round of the two years combined. That's not a lot of competition.

Instead he gets beat out by the tiny guys like Shayne Gostisbehere and Matt Grzelcyk who were just drafted in the third round this year. Mike Reilly is a 4th rounder, but at least it was last year and you can argue that he's older and had more time to develop.

But how is it not a disappointment when our prospect gets beaten out for a spot by two third rounders just a few months after the draft?
Tonya Harding time? Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays btw

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12-25-2012, 08:38 AM
  #144
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He has two more years of eligibility. He's 18 now.

As a few of us have already mentioned, he goes back to Minnesota, a top three team in the NCAA, as the youngest player on the roster, with big games against BC, Notre Dame.

US management went in a direction. Not exactly the best one. They think they can win in a shootout against Canada and Russia, but they'll find out they don't have the weapons to match.

This has nothing to do with "statistics" or "teaching statistics in school". There are no "rules of thumb".

What there is, is a management team and coaching staff that wanted to do something, and its questionable until we see the results.

What there is, is a top four spot and tons of ice time against some of the NCAA's top schools in the next few weeks available for Skjei, on route to a possible "Frozen Four" appearance.

USA is regarded a favorite. But with Canada and Russia in their group and one less competent defensive defenseman available on the roster, this tournament has the potential to be a disaster for USA. They should have focused on shutting down Canada and Russia. Instead its clear they intend to try to match them stride for stride offensively. Won't happen.

This might be a blessing in disguise for Skjei. More ice time. Further earn Lucia's trust down the stretch of the second half of the season.

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12-25-2012, 02:07 PM
  #145
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I'm watching the 2010 US WJC team.

Obviously the NHL is a whole different beast, but Stepan lost something when he came to the NHL. His tenacity is just on a completely different level then it used it be. Obviously he has put up great numbers thus far in his NHL career, but his skills haven't translated the way you would expect. I could MAYBE name 5 prospects at the time with better credentials then Stepan after his sophomore year, he was that good.

I will never understand how anyone considered Carlson our #1 defenseman that tournament. He was very underwhelming. Fowler was far and away our #1 defenseman. My god he is such an intelligent player.

Kreider was fantastic this tournament as well. Causing havoc on the forecheck every shift and play excellent offensive hockey. All of this with the two worst players he could be possibly paired with on that team, Jeremy Morin and AJ Jenks.

What a magical tournament that was. Even 4th liners on that squad like Jason Zucker and Tyler Johnson are still playing fantastic hockey to this day.

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12-25-2012, 08:13 PM
  #146
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I'm watching the 2010 US WJC team.

Obviously the NHL is a whole different beast, but Stepan lost something when he came to the NHL. His tenacity is just on a completely different level then it used it be. Obviously he has put up great numbers thus far in his NHL career, but his skills haven't translated the way you would expect. I could MAYBE name 5 prospects at the time with better credentials then Stepan after his sophomore year, he was that good.

I will never understand how anyone considered Carlson our #1 defenseman that tournament. He was very underwhelming. Fowler was far and away our #1 defenseman. My god he is such an intelligent player.

Kreider was fantastic this tournament as well. Causing havoc on the forecheck every shift and play excellent offensive hockey. All of this with the two worst players he could be possibly paired with on that team, Jeremy Morin and AJ Jenks.

What a magical tournament that was. Even 4th liners on that squad like Jason Zucker and Tyler Johnson are still playing fantastic hockey to this day.
Stepan was, on a hockey intelligence level, a man amongst boys in that tournament. He made guys like Jerry D'amigo NOT look awful. As you said, the NHL is a different beast. He didn't lose much, he's just playing against significantly better competition.

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12-25-2012, 08:28 PM
  #147
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12-25-2012, 09:19 PM
  #148
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Jeremy Morin ****ing sucks. *awaits offdacrossbar telling me I'm wrong and he's GOD*
Those were some epic debates.

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12-26-2012, 12:08 PM
  #149
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Two points by Oscar Lindberg tonight. One goal and one assist.
No points by Jesper Fasth.

Lindberg, 33-11-17-28
Fasth, 25-8-7-15

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12-26-2012, 12:10 PM
  #150
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Wow, 28 points for Lindberg is incredible!

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